Zach Wasserman
Analyst · Steven Alexopoulos with JP Morgan. Please proceed with your question
Great question, Steve. I think the short answer to your question is no. A steeper yield curve continues to benefit us. Obviously, that environment would be indicative of funding costs, which would represent solid margins against where asset yields are. I think we're in this really strange environment with inverted yield curves and with the dramatic reduction forecasted pretty quick here. So we'll see how it all plays out. But I think for us, the puts and takes with respect to NIM outlook in the moderate terms in 2024, one, we're going to continue to benefit very significantly from fixed asset repricing. I tried to provide some incremental clarity about that in the prepared remarks and the presentation. But see 50 basis point to 100 basis point moves in overall portfolio yield in key categories will continue to see that benefit us, not only to 2024, but to 2025 and beyond. Another thing is, for us, as the curve becomes less inverted, we'll see our negative carry from our down rate hedge protection program reduce. The negative carry, in fact, by the way, in Q4, it was around 17 basis points of drag. We've talked about likely we'll see about 10 bips of that come back to us. We believe the scenario will pretty align a forward curve here over the next four quarters. Funding costs, again, in a steeper yield curve environment where [indiscernible] rates have fallen, will really start to benefit us in terms of beginning to pivot toward down beta, and actually executing on down beta, since Erika's question earlier. And those things in total essentially offset for us in our NIM, the variable yield reduction that we'll see if and when the short end comes down. So I still believe that that [indiscernible] scenario of a nice upward slope in yield curve is accretive to margin, sort of supportive of it. And the goal we've got is the same, to try to really collar the NIM here, put a floor under it, and really position for upside. And I think the last thing I'd say is, kind of picking up to your question as well. The modeling that we have done about 2025, and we've been saying this for a while, really highlights NIM expansion opportunities, which again, is sort of an indication that the upward slope in yield curve is positive.