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Horizon Bancorp, Inc. (HBNC)

Q4 2020 Earnings Call· Thu, Jan 28, 2021

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning everyone. And welcome to the Horizon Bancorp Conference Call to discuss financial results for the third month ending December 31, 2020. All participants are in a listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions] After today’s presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. [Operator Instructions] Please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. If you have further questions, you may re-enter the question queue. Please note this event is being recorded. Before turning the call over to management, please remember that today's call may contain statements that are forward-looking in nature. These statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed including those factors noted in the slide presentation. Additional information about factors that could cause actual results to differ materially is contained in Horizon’s current 10-K and related filings. In addition, the management [Indiscernible] certain non-GAAP financial measures that are intended to help investors understand Horizon’s business. Reconciliations for these measures are contained in the presentation. The Company assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements made during the call. If anyone does not already have a copy of the press release and supplemental presentation issued by Horizon yesterday, you can access it at the company’s website www.horizonbank.com. Representing Horizon today are Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Craig Dwight; and Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Mark Secor. They will be joined by Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Banking Officer, Dennis Kuhn for the question and answer session. At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Horizon’s Chairman and CEO Craig Dwight. Please go ahead.

Craig Dwight

Analyst

Thank you, Anita, and good morning. And thank you for participating in Horizon bank Corp. fourth quarter earnings conference call. Our comments today will follow the investor presentation we published yesterday January 27. Starting on Slide 4, you'll find highlights that summarize Horizon’s excellent year, as evidenced by net income for 2020 increased by 3% over the prior year. Given all the obstacles that we had to confront, it was an impressive year and a true testament to the quality of our employees. Key drivers during the year were record one to four family mortgage loan production and mortgage warehouse volume, good expense control, and our ability to maintain a stable net interest margin. In addition, we maintained solid asset quality as evidenced by low NPAs, to total assets at 49 basis points in that chart drops at five basis points of total loans. We're also proud to state that for over 30 years, we have made uninterrupted dividend payments to our shareholders, and we have approximately 18 quarters of cash on hand at the holding company to cover fixed costs, including future dividends. Next slide 5 titled seasoned management team, you will observe that we are a seasoned leadership team. We have managed through multiple recessions and have overseen history of strong financial performance over the past 18 years. Of special note in December 2020, we promoted senior commercial credit administration officer Lynn Kerber and our General Counsel, Todd Etzler as our newest Executive Vice Presidents. As you'll see on Slide 6, we've completed 11 new organic market expansions and 14 mergers and acquisitions during this time continued. We're a company on the move and we continue to look for new opportunities in our current and adjacent Indiana and Michigan markets. With our proven track record as a successful…

Mark Secor

Analyst

Thank you, Craig. Horizon’s fourth quarter results continue to demonstrate our ability to realize strong operating results and drop record earnings to the bottom line as we navigate the current environment. Starting with Slide 13, the company's fourth quarter results were the highest stated and adjusted net income, net interest income, pretax pre-provision income, non-interest income and earnings per share in the company's history. Several activities during the fourth quarter impacted these record results. We incurred prepayment expense on the retirement of high cost long term debt recognized PPP forgiveness fees through net interest income and recorded tax benefits from solar tax credit investments. We continue to build allowance with additional credit expense primarily for the stress loan sectors that we that have been identified. We believe, we are appropriately reserve given the current state of our portfolio, additional government stimulus and our seasonal modeling. Slide 14, the 17 basis point increases in the adjusted margin during the quarter was positively impacted by 18 basis points from PPP lending, as net fee income was recognized for loan forgiveness, compared to four basis points of margin contraction in the third quarter. In addition, excess liquidity compressed the margin additional seven basis points compared to three basis points in the third quarter. Slide 15, the loan yield was also positively impacted from PPP net loan fees recognized during the quarter, adding 15 basis points to the yield compared to a 13 basis point reduction in the third quarter. Higher purchase accounting income recognized in the fourth quarter compared to the third also positively impacted the loan yield. As loans continued to reprice and new product is originated at lower rates, some additional downward pressure on asset yield is expected along with a mix of additional investments, resulting in some margin pressure during…

Craig Dwight

Analyst

Thank you, Mark. Looking at the chart on the left on Slide 23, Horizon’s $3.8 billion in total loans are well diversified, with 50% in commercial loans and 43% in residential and consumer loans. At Horizon, we like this loan mix as it diversifies our credit risk and provides advantages to manage our net interest margin. The chart on the right provides the granularity within our commercial loan portfolio, which itself is well diversified. Our single largest sector is in the residential multifamily housing loans at 6% of total commercial loans and this segment continues to perform well. Other key points to make, Horizon manages capital at risk by maintaining an in-house lending limit at $30 million, which is well below our legal linear limit of approximately $78 million. Our granularity is further enhanced by the fact that Horizon’s average commercial loan is only $304,000 excluding PPP loans. Now moving to Slide 24, as of December 31 Horizon’s loan deferrals declined to 3.3% down from its peak of 14.3% on June 30. The majority of our dollars under a loan deferment are still in the commercial loan portfolio, with the consumer and mortgage loan deferrals remaining low at less than 1%. Overall Horizon’s deferral rates are in line with peer banks. The number of commercial loans and payment deferrals as of December 31 totaled 55 down significantly from the June 30 total of 670. Horizon’s commercial lending team has been diligent in meeting with our business customers to update their financial plans into place a loans back on regularly scheduled payments. Of the commercial loans on deferral 95% of the dollars are making interest only payments and only 2% or 5% of those loans in deferral are making our deferred for principal and interest. The two loans on principal and…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. [Operator Instructions]. The first question today comes from Terry McEvoy with Stephens. Please go ahead.

Terry McEvoy

Analyst

Good morning, guys. How are you?

Craig Dwight

Analyst

Good.

Mark Secor

Analyst

Hi. Good morning, Terry.

Terry McEvoy

Analyst

Maybe, Mark, a question for you. How should we think about expenses in 2021? I appreciate all the data on active bank users and transaction volume. And you kind of hinted at maybe some opportunities to consolidate some branches with more news to come. So, with all that said, what should expenses kind of trend and look like this year?

Mark Secor

Analyst

Well, the fourth quarter was heavily loaded on the salary and benefits side as we expecting on first part of the year, we didn't foresee where we were going to be -- but we thought where we were going and didn't have the accruals where they should be. So I think the year -- looking at the full year, the salary benefits expensive is a good picture of where we should have been for the entire year and moving into 2021. We had some other elevated expenses here in the fourth quarter, which we alluded to. And some of the one-time items that are normal operating. But in the other expense category where we had some write-downs on bank owned properties, as we're trying to get those take or those who out of the balance sheet. And then there was higher customer activity, which that could maybe loan expense and so forth could continue through next year. But we are looking at the branch rationalization. There will be more to come on that as we get into this year. And we are looking for ways. But we also are looking to where we need to reinvest some of that as we look at that branch rationalization to reinvest it into future earnings. So, Terry, we never giving exactly forward looking statements. But I think the full year of expense is a pretty good basis to start with. And then, we're going to do. What we can to maintain the level. Although there are some times in the inflationary or pressure to or needing to move up for salary benefits and so forth for increases going into 2021.

Terry McEvoy

Analyst

Thanks. And then just as a follow up, it sounds like over the near term mortgage business should remain pretty healthy. Though the industry is kind of -- folks are suggesting it declines throughout the course of 2021. What are your thoughts on kind of full year mortgage revenue, as well as just the mortgage warehouse which ended the year almost with $400 million?

Mark Secor

Analyst

Yes. I think as we look at it, we follow the mortgage banking direction that they were looking for about a 30% decline based on this year. Obviously, coming into the first quarter here, we still are at elevated levels, both refinancing and purchase. But I think following the guidance that we're seeing from the national industry is probably pretty good. Look at what we're anticipating, which will also impact the warehousing as we get into the rest of the year if its level slows.

Craig Dwight

Analyst

Yes. Terry, this is Craig. We are directly in line with the refinance indexes that are published. So whatever trend they're taking is the same trend that we'll be taking. It just been historical norms.

Terry McEvoy

Analyst

Thank you.

Craig Dwight

Analyst

Thank you.

Mark Secor

Analyst

Thanks.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Damon DelMonte with KBW. Please go ahead.

Damon DelMonte

Analyst · KBW. Please go ahead.

Hey, good morning, guys. How's it going today?

Mark Secor

Analyst · KBW. Please go ahead.

Morning good morning, David.

Craig Dwight

Analyst · KBW. Please go ahead.

Hi. Morning good morning, David.

Damon DelMonte

Analyst · KBW. Please go ahead.

Great. So first question just on the margin. Mark, could you just elaborate a little bit more on your outlook there? I think you were saying that the core margin should probably trend a little bit lower during the course of the year. And then you kind of you talked about some of the puts and takes around that and what could be some of those factors. Could you just kind of go back over that, please?

Mark Secor

Analyst · KBW. Please go ahead.

Yes, Damon. Our focus is -- since we have this liquidity and we had a lot of excess cash even as we're continuing to try to find ways to utilize it with excess cash again at the year end. So, there is going to be some natural pressure on the loan yield just from some refinancing or the new product that comes on and rates are down. But I think the loan yields are -- we're seeing those starting to stabilize, and the repricing is working its way through. I think the pressure is going to be more on the mix of the assets. And we'll stated that, we're looking to put $200 million more into the investment portfolio at lower yields. So I think that's going to put the pressure on the asset yield. We have some of the benefits out of the CD portfolio rolling off and that is on the funding side. So we'll see some pickup there. But I think I think the mix of the assets is probably going to have the biggest impact to the margin. So we're focused on growing net interest income. So we want to get our cash to work. We want to look for ways to increase net interest income and continue to grow that. And the margin wind up where it is, depending on the mix of those assets.

Damon DelMonte

Analyst · KBW. Please go ahead.

Got it. Okay, that's helpful. Thank you. And then, I guess just maybe a broader question for Craig. You mentioned that if you thought that M&A opportunities could be arising here in 2021, could you just give us a little refresher on your geographies and some of the characteristics you look for? And then also, could you comment on market disruption and maybe follow opportunity from the HBAN's TCF transaction that's was announced? Thank you.

Craig Dwight

Analyst · KBW. Please go ahead.

Yes. Thank you, Damon. Some of you might be surprised that our primary focus is Michigan, Indiana and Northwest Ohio. We are not looking at Illinois anymore, primarily because the COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated the issues and problems in Illinois that I think there'll be a long term duration. And so we're avoiding opportunities in that state. But in Indiana, Michigan, Northwest Ohio, we are hearing discussions, taking place again, people are at least talking about possible M&A. We saw some recent announcements come out that I think are encouraging. So yes, I think 2021 we'll see a reemergence of M&A in our target footprint. Regarding the Huntington TCF acquisition, whenever there's market disruption, we pursue it vigorously. We pursue not only talent, we pursue customers through increased advertising dollars. This will be TCF's third systems change in three or four years. I can't remember the time period. That's a lot of disruption for their customers go through. So we think there's opportunity to pick up not only talent, but as well as customers going forward. Thank you for the question.

Damon DelMonte

Analyst · KBW. Please go ahead.

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from Nathan Race with Piper Sandler. Please go ahead.

Nathan Race

Analyst · Piper Sandler. Please go ahead.

Yes. Hi, guys. Good morning.

Craig Dwight

Analyst · Piper Sandler. Please go ahead.

Good morning.

Nathan Race

Analyst · Piper Sandler. Please go ahead.

I was hoping to just kind of expand on just the loan growth outlook. I have PPP this year. Obviously there's some opportunities with the M&A related disruption in some of your geography. So just curious if there's an update from I think there was kind of a flattish outlook at PPP last quarter. Are you guys feeling kind of more less constructive just in terms of organic loan growth for 2021?

Craig Dwight

Analyst · Piper Sandler. Please go ahead.

Yes. I'll take a stab at it and then we'll have Dennis Kuhn maybe give us some insight in the commercial side as well. Our objective is to maintain loan outstanding for the year, which will be commendable considering PPP forgiveness that's forthcoming. That said, we don't see that taking place to third and fourth quarters. And what's interesting is our commercial line of credits have actually had a considerable decline because of the PPP proceeds in a permanent working capital that's gone into some healthy businesses. So until they burn through that cash, we don't see that line of credit usage picking up unlike we -- what we earlier thought might happen where there'd be a higher utilization. But now commercial should rebound in the third and fourth quarter. We plan to invest in commercial lenders, try to take advantage of the TCF Huntington transaction. And so how long will it take to build that pipelines? With that said, we had growth in some of our key markets. The Michigan market had a very good year last year. We had some payoffs in Indianapolis. So they slowed down. But the pipelines are starting to rebuild. So our growth markets, I think will return and be promising again going forward. And we have historically taking our profits from the mortgage business during the good years, and reinvested in commercial lenders for future growth. That's what we plan to do in this year. Dennis, do you want to add to that.

Dennis Kuhn

Analyst · Piper Sandler. Please go ahead.

I think that was an excellent response. And again, as Craig said, the performance in our key growth markets, including the metrics you're hearing today on unemployment, such bode well for those markets who are active. And our sense at this point is that over the fourth quarter and early 2021 here we're seeing some growth in pipelines. So there are opportunities that are starting to come to the front. It is of course, very competitive. But we will be again, looking for opportunities with regard to the Huntington TCF upheaval as well.

Nathan Race

Analyst · Piper Sandler. Please go ahead.

Got it. That's great color. And just changing gears a little bit and thinking about capital deployment. Obviously, appreciate your comments just with M&A over me and ongoing, like consideration these days and with the stock has been bounced back a little bit. Just curious on your kind of updated thoughts on going back to your repurchases and just the overall upside there. And what's your remaining authorization as well, along those lines?

Craig Dwight

Analyst · Piper Sandler. Please go ahead.

Well, Nathan, as we continue to grow earning assets faster than capital. I'm sorry, the vice versa, capitals growing faster than earning assets, we do have to do something with that excess capital. So we are seriously looking at our dividend as well as stock repurchases in 2021. I'm not sure when those will start. But it's definitely on our table. And the third thing is the acquisitions would also take a part of that capital.. Mark, do you want to add some thing.

Mark Secor

Analyst · Piper Sandler. Please go ahead.

I just going to say, we had about -- our current repurchase plan, we have about 1.8 million shares left in that plan.

Nathan Race

Analyst · Piper Sandler. Please go ahead.

Got you. And just as a follow up, Craig, just curious, with the credit picture becoming a little more clear these days, is there a payout ratio that you guys are targeting this year in terms of both buybacks and common dividends relative to historical peers? I think it's been in the 30% range or so. Any updated thoughts along those lines?

Craig Dwight

Analyst · Piper Sandler. Please go ahead.

Nathan, we try to keep our payout ratio in line with peers into increase dividends directionally with earnings improvement. And we've done that historically. And so, I would see that changing. Where in the past, we were a very low end payout ratio, we were at 25% or below. We're more in line with peers now, 30% to 35%, and I don't see that going backwards. We've kind of -- what's the word we look for? We're more mature company versus five, six years ago. We had rapid growth with all the mergers acquisitions, we needed to retain the capital. That is less of an issue today as we are much larger company.

Nathan Race

Analyst · Piper Sandler. Please go ahead.

Great. Got it. I appreciate all the color. Thanks guys.

Craig Dwight

Analyst · Piper Sandler. Please go ahead.

Thank you for the questions.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Brian Martin with Janney Montgomery. Please go ahead.

Brian Martin

Analyst · Janney Montgomery. Please go ahead.

Hey, good morning.

Craig Dwight

Analyst · Janney Montgomery. Please go ahead.

Good morning, Brian.

Brian Martin

Analyst · Janney Montgomery. Please go ahead.

Hey, just one follow up, Mark, on the margin question to the dollar if that interesting? Can I guess if -- can you just talk about maybe what you -- how you think about the dollars of net interest income if that's more of the focus, just from a growth perspective, assuming that the PPP kind of muddies that up? But just how you're thinking about expectations for 2021 versus 2020 on the dollars of net interest income given the fluctuations in the size of the balance sheet here?

Mark Secor

Analyst · Janney Montgomery. Please go ahead.

Yes. I think it's just general direction, Brian. I can't give you amount obviously. But I think because we talk about the margin, I think as we hopefully see the loan yields stabilized through the year as we continue -- as we've repriced the portion. I think there's still a slight pressure, but they are stabilizing. Under the current scenario, right now, now, we have different economic indicators. There's economic issues that could change throughout the year. So I think the biggest impact to be able to see, what would be the net interest income would be putting in the additional liquidity into the investment portfolio. And we already said, we're working on $200 million, but we also have additional liquidity coming from PPP forgiveness, as we get through the year, and through this -- lot of this current round. That's going to help put on more assets for a while, but those will come back. And last round, we picked up quite a bit of cash through that process is that money was sitting in our transaction accounts, along with the warehousing we'll create liquidity. So, I think it's going to be -- I think it's our goal to grow net interest income. But I think there's going to be pressures, because getting rid of the warehousing and PPP loans and the fees, those are going to be higher yielding than what we can put on with investments. And as part of the driving factor we'll also be where our deposits go. If we start to see deposit outflow then we will be able to reduce some of the balance sheet. But really the deposit flow is driving -- the deposit levels are driving the need to put the cash into earning assets.

Brian Martin

Analyst · Janney Montgomery. Please go ahead.

Got you. Okay. That's helpful.

Craig Dwight

Analyst · Janney Montgomery. Please go ahead.

And, Brian.

Brian Martin

Analyst · Janney Montgomery. Please go ahead.

Go ahead.

Craig Dwight

Analyst · Janney Montgomery. Please go ahead.

Brian, this is Craig, good morning. If we just maintain the dollars and margin or have a modest increase, we're going to be doing very well given I anticipate the credit provision expense should not be anywhere near that it was in 2020. And that we've built up adequate reserves. So, the strategy is to bridge this year to get to 2022, where you're going to see a return of pretty good growth numbers in the stronger net interest margins as we shrink the investment portfolio and put it back into higher earning assets. So that's our plan. We've done that before in other recessions, in other mortgage boom times. I think it's worked pretty well.

Brian Martin

Analyst · Janney Montgomery. Please go ahead.

Yes. Okay. Thanks, Craig. And maybe just -- my next question was just on that comment, Craig on the reserve builds, and just kind of where things are adding. And the credit quality was obviously, very strong here, but you guys had some build in the quarter. Just kind of how to think about the reserve, kind of post COVID here, kind of where we may trend to or how to think about that?

Craig Dwight

Analyst · Janney Montgomery. Please go ahead.

Yes. First of all, I think CECL is working as intended. We could all talk about the mechanics of it, and it's different in each bank. But that's how we manage our reserves back in the 80s. We set aside earnings during great years for a future losses. And that's what's taking place now. So I think CECL is working. But what I'm encouraged about is that the number of loans are smaller. Our hotel sector was actually doing very well this summer through October with higher occupancy rates, because they are primarily hotels, located along highways and resort communities. Thanks to the Chicago influx of people coming over to the resort communities. And then the second round of PPP is going to get them through this next summer. Will they have the occupancy rates in average daily room rates they had two years ago? Probably not. But then cash flow have decent and modest returns to their investor. But nothing like they had with them. Previously they haven't -- what I would consider egregious returns to their investors have given the demand. We're not in conventional progress. I feel pretty comfortable that segment going forward from additional allocations in the stimulus money coming out. And that's true for our other non essential businesses. The PPP program has worked to bridge that gap. So from a credit quality standpoint, get us through to the other side which we're hearing the summertime. I believe there is pent up demand for the retail consumer sectors. Probably not the business side who's sitting on all this cash, but definitely on the retail consumer side. I'm not sure about you, but I can't wait to travel again.

Brian Martin

Analyst · Janney Montgomery. Please go ahead.

Yes. Help, for sure. And maybe just given your comments on the hotel, the level of credit size assets, I think you guys gave the classifieds in the release. But just how the credit size levels trend this quarter?

Craig Dwight

Analyst · Janney Montgomery. Please go ahead.

Yes. I'll make a broad comment, and let Dennis talk about it as well. Two things that I want to state. Number one, when we gave modification, we downgraded the credit. I'm not sure all banks are doing that. Number two, our third-party independent to loan review company recommended to the board which we accepted to do a deep dive into our troubled sectors. They looked at a lot of loans, over 100 loans. And came back to the board at our meeting in December and said basically, that we were perhaps one of the best banks they've seen, how we address and attack the distressed sector. So that gives me a lot of confidence in how our team manage their accounts. When I would talked about their plans to cut costs. Look for capital alternatives to help them get to the other side. So very proud of what we've done. But with that, we did have an increase in substandard loans in the fourth quarter. And I let Dennis talk about that, Dennis?

Dennis Kuhn

Analyst · Janney Montgomery. Please go ahead.

Sure. Yes. We saw an uptick of about $11 million, or 12% during the fourth quarter as centered in commercial a course. Seven relationships, largest was about $8 million. That's a agribusiness, seed distributor, who's working on a recapitalization and potential payoff here during the first quarter, second quarter latest. Several other credits, a couple of manufacturers, couple of [Indiscernible]. So nothing really that I think that we see. As Craig said, we're actively watching our loans, of course, managing those, putting together workout plans that have worked, as you saw with the decrease in nonperforming during the fourth quarter, two loans in particular paid off, and those were favorable results to the bank, we didn't take additional losses on those. So again, it's just repeating our history of identifying, working a plan and limiting our charge off.

Craig Dwight

Analyst · Janney Montgomery. Please go ahead.

It was surprised me in quarter end our industry been true all year. Our asset based loans have primarily been in formula. Throughout the year, we've had a couple now that have gone out of formula, but it's because of growth, the formula, the asset based formula has less dependence on inventory. Their inventories building, they has their -- and they haven't booked a cell yet. They're building inventory. And we think they're going to be back in formula here in the first quarter. So even though we've downgrades in the credits in the manufacturing side, they actually performed pretty well.

Brian Martin

Analyst · Janney Montgomery. Please go ahead.

Got you. And just to be clear, Dennis, the comment on the $11 million, was that the classified level? Or was at the level of credit size, including special mention, or did you mentioned special mention?

Craig Dwight

Analyst · Janney Montgomery. Please go ahead.

That was in the substandard, so substandard category.

Brian Martin

Analyst · Janney Montgomery. Please go ahead.

And how did they get inclusive of the special mention. So the credit size number, how does -- was that direction of the same way? Or how does that trending the quarter?

Mark Secor

Analyst · Janney Montgomery. Please go ahead.

There was significant impact. As Craig has mentioned, when we modified loans, we took a one step downgrade. So there was certainly additional movement early in the year within the special mention. But as we've progressed, and we're getting the opportunity to review those credits, again, we are seeing, again, they're stable, they're making payments. And we are starting to actually see some reversal of that and we'll over time we expect special mention will actually reduce. So, there'll be of course, some level of migration. But again, what we're seeing at this point has been favorable.

Craig Dwight

Analyst · Janney Montgomery. Please go ahead.

Yes. Brian, by example, most of our hotels went into special mention, someone in substandard. But 71% of our hotel dollars outstanding have sponsors with 10 million plus in liquid assets, very well heeled sponsors that can support the portfolio going forward.

Brian Martin

Analyst · Janney Montgomery. Please go ahead.

Got you. Okay. Thanks for taking the questions, guys.

Craig Dwight

Analyst · Janney Montgomery. Please go ahead.

Thanks for the questions, Brian.

Operator

Operator

This concludes our question and answer session. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Craig Dwight for any closing remarks.

Craig Dwight

Analyst

Thank you Anita and thank you for participating in today's earnings call. And we look forward to speaking to you again hopefully in person in the near future. Let's get to the other side of this pandemic. Thank you. Have a great day.

Operator

Operator

This conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.