Walter Scheller
Analyst · B. Riley
Thanks, Brian. Hello, everyone, and thank you for taking the time to join us today to discuss our third quarter 2026 results. I'll start by providing an overview of the quarter before Dale reviews our results in additional detail. Warrior delivered strong third quarter results that demonstrate the progress we are making in the next phase of our growth strategy. Higher volumes from Blue Creek, improved pricing and disciplined execution generated significant free cash flow, strengthened our balance sheet and supported the Board's declaration of a $2 per share special dividend. Approximately one year after commencing longwall operations at Blue Creek, eight months ahead of schedule, we're already seeing this transformational investment contribute to meaningful cash generation and enhance our ability to return excess cash to stockholders. From a steelmaking coal market perspective, the third quarter 2026 was shaped by a number of events, including most significantly the Chinese government's response to the tragic mining incident in China. The resulting safety inspections and production restrictions reduced domestic coking coal availability and drove Chinese steelmaking coal and coke prices materially higher. This reopened the arbitrage between China's CFR and the Australian FOB indices and led to renewed Chinese buying of premium seaborne steelmaking coal. Pricing increased more than we had expected, particularly during September, despite steel fundamentals remaining relatively weak. The quarter also provided further evidence of the continued vulnerability of metallurgical coal supply chains. A U.S. mine fire negatively impacted the availability of High Vol A coals with the disruption expected to continue into 2027. Mongolian border crossings also declined materially during the second half of September because of diesel fuel shortages and other restrictions. These events, together with Chinese production constraints supported a supply-driven rally even as broader spot demand remains relatively weak. The World Steel Association reported recently that global pig iron production declined during the first nine months of 2026 by 2% as compared to the same period last year. India continued to show growth with a 3.1% increase year-over-year, while China remained the primary source of weakness with a 3% decrease in production as the country continues to grapple with soft internal demand and weak steel margins. This regional split remains consistent with the broader market narrative with resilient demand in India and other parts of Asia, offset by continued softness in China and an uneven recovery across developed markets. Against that backdrop, our primary index, the PLV FOB Australia averaged $225 per short ton during the third quarter, an increase of $9 per ton from the second quarter average of $216. The increase was concentrated in September when the index averaged $252 per ton. The average index price in this year's third quarter was 36% higher than the $166 per short ton in the third quarter of last year. The PLV CFR China Index experienced an even greater increase, averaging $243 per ton for the third quarter compared to $212 in the second quarter of this year, clearly reflecting the reopening of the arbitrage due to stronger Chinese domestic pricing. Second-tier indices also increased during the third quarter, although they continue to trade at meaningful discounts to the PLV. The Australian LVHCC index averaged $192 per short ton, equivalent to 86% of the PLV compared to 79% in the second quarter of this year. The U.S. East Coast HVA index averaged $155 per short ton, equivalent to 69% of the PLV compared to 66% during the second quarter of this year. HVA pricing benefited from renewed trades into China. However, the broader spot market for second-tier steelmaking coals remained relatively weak. The average U.S. East Coast HVA index price in this year's third quarter was 10% higher than the $141 per short ton in the third quarter of last year. Our gross price realization was 66% for the third quarter, consistent with the second quarter and compared to 83% in the third quarter of 2025. Although our realizations have been fairly consistent for the first nine months this year, the year-over-year change reflects several factors. First, while our main pricing indices were higher, freight rates to Asia and demurrage rates were significantly higher, reflecting the ongoing conflict in the Middle East as well as production and logistics disruptions during the quarter. Second, our product mix continued to evolve with a mix of High Vol A products sold increasing by 25 percentage points compared to the same quarter last year, reflecting the growing contribution from Blue Creek. Lastly, our third quarter 2026 realizations were impacted by the onetime monetization of surplus inventories at fixed rather than index-linked pricing. Turning back to our financial results. Warrior achieved third quarter sales volume of 3.5 million short tons, an increase of 48% from the prior year quarter, primarily reflecting the successful ramp-up of Blue Creek. Our third quarter sales volume mix was 68% High Vol A and 32% premium Low-Vol. This represents a 25 percentage point increase in High Vol A volumes over the prior year's third quarter. During the third quarter, we took advantage of a onetime opportunity to monetize our surplus High Vol A coal inventories that has accumulated from the early start-up of Blue Creek. In the early part of the second quarter, we entered into fixed price contracts to sell approximately 550,000 tons based upon the market conditions and pricing outlook at the time. While subsequent market developments, including the Chinese mining accident in May, supported seaborne steelmaking coal prices at higher levels for longer than originally anticipated, the transactions generated approximately $49 million of cash, reduced surplus tons and further normalized our inventory position following the Blue Creek start-up. Monetizing the surplus volume reduced our average net selling price by approximately $8 per ton during the quarter. Based upon our average third quarter high-volume selling price, the monetization also reduced adjusted EBITDA by approximately $27 million compared to the amount that would have been realized had those tons been sold at the average price. Our steelmaking coal inventories decreased to 967,000 short tons at the end of September of this year compared to 1.4 million tons at the end of June 2026. Our sales by geography for the third quarter break down as follows: 55% into Asia, 35% into Europe and 10% into South America. Our spot volume was 12% for the third quarter of 2026. Sales volumes in the Pacific Basin were 55% this quarter compared to 38% in the third quarter of 2025, primarily reflecting the demand growth from India and other Southeast Asian countries, combined with the higher volumes from Blue Creek. Production volume for the third quarter increased 36% to 3.1 million short tons compared to 2.2 million in the same quarter last year, driven by the continued contribution from Blue Creek. At Mine 7, production was lower sequentially as we completed the longwall move and encountered challenging mining and geological conditions as we finished the prior longwall panel and began production on the new panel. At Mine 7 production was 309,000 tons or 22% lower than the second quarter, which resulted in lower fixed cost absorption and increased our overall cash cost per short ton by approximately $11. I'll now ask Dale to address our third quarter results in greater detail.