Carol Tome
Analyst · Morgan Stanley
Yeah. So there are a number of things that we look at, obviously. During the recovery, we were always looking for green shoots and our looking for red flags, luckily we’re not seeing any of those. But here's what we're looking. As you see, rates are going up, 30-year mortgage, I don't know what your screen is showing. The last time I looked, it was about 4.6%., and it's on its way up projected to be up at least 5% by 2020. Historical mortgages over the past, gosh, 50 some odd years, it's 5.8%. So we're considerably under those historical mortgage rates. But we are super focused on the Affordability Index and what that means in terms of performance by market. So if you look at the Affordability Index for the country at large, it's 152%, which is still very good. The average over again decades is about 127%. So if the Affordability Index were to reach 127% or under, that would certainly be a red flag. And then we look at rising home prices coupled with rising mortgage rates, you see in markets where you might argue there's an overheated housing market or at least certainly one that's on fire, so there anything happening to our business? So I would call out two markets, Denver, Colorado and Seattle, Washington. Both have had seen extraordinary expansion of home price appreciation. The business there is very good, and the reason is because the economy is very good. So you can't just look at housing prices and interest rates and say, 'Oh, oh, you got to then look at what's happening to the economy.' So it's getting a bit more complicated than it has in the past because there are all these influences of business. But certainly, if I stop talking just tell you what we look at every day, we look at ticket and transactions, ticket and transactions. Because if you go back to the last recession, ignoring the housing downturn recession, but the last recession in the United States had 2001, our ticket was flat. So we're looking at that. And then, of course, transaction, because transactions can be an indicator of a few things, right? It could be an indicator of slowdown in demand or an indicator that competitors taking your customer away. So hopefully, that's helpful, Brian.