Earnings Labs

HDFC Bank Limited (HDB)

Q2 2022 Earnings Call· Mon, Oct 18, 2021

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, good evening, and welcome to HDFC Bank Limited Q2 FY '22 Earnings Conference call on the financial results presented by the management of HDFC Bank. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Srinivasan Vaidyanathan, Chief Financial Officer, HDFC Bank. Thank you, and over to you, sir.

Srinivasan Vaidyanathan

Analyst

Okay. Thank you, Rutuja. Good evening, and welcome to all. Let's start with providing the context on the environment and the policies, which are at an inflection point for accelerated growth. With support from pent-up demand and easing of mobility restrictions in the country, economic activity moved above the second wave levels in early August. Encouragingly, in recent weeks as well, economic activity has remained robust. We expect economic activity to recover further, driven by festive season, pick up in vaccination and the likely increase in government spending. Activity indicators like CMI, GST collections, et cetera, fared better in Q2 and continues to be building up. We expect GDP to show positive sequential growth for the coming quarters. Inflation has remained within policy range, and RBIs captive policy stands accommodated. Now in this backdrop, the bank is operating and is poised for capturing significant growth opportunities. Key enablers are very well lined up for execution of our strategy. For instance, capital adequacy is at 20%. Our CET1 ratio is at 17.4%. Liquidity is strong, as reflected in our average LCR for the quarter at 123%, approximately $6 billion excess over a floor of 110%. Balance sheet has been built with great resiliency. The GNP ratio has remained within a reasonable range of 1.35%. Floating and contingent provisions aggregating to INR9,200 crore helps in derisking the balance sheet. About 400 branches are in the pipeline to open within a short period of time. To give additional context on the branches, we also added 432 branches over the past 18 months, that is during the current period, positioning us for capitalizing on the opportunity, progressing on the vintage maturity models. We added 5,868 people in the quarter, 9,248 people in the first half of this financial year. We have added 12,259 people…

Arvind Kapil

Analyst

Thanks, Srini. Very good evening, everybody. The retail assets book has exhibited a robust quarterly sequential growth of around 4.5% at September '21 over June '21 and around an 11.5% on a year-on-year basis, September '21 over September '20. This is on the back of the incremental disbursals in the quarter where large portfolios like whether the 4-wheeler auto loans, unsecured loans and mortgage loans have achieved new heights. And we expect a positive sequential growth in the coming quarters as well. To supplement this, let's also look at a quick sense of how we see the macroeconomic indicators from a business point of view, and I'd like to, in the next 2 minutes, supplement it with what's happening on the ground level. So one is the monsoon, we see finally is normal levels. The rural economy has started to show, at a ground level, a feel good factor, you will have a good rabi season probably in the next 6 months. If I look at the employment indicators, we can see that it's -- probably September reached the pre-COVID levels if I look at the CMI data. If I look at the bureau data for loans, the industry inquiry for loans has witnessed a month-on-month increase. And for all our retail asset business, it's confirming a strong demand and validating our confidence for growth. Now if I also look at the mobility index that we watch, I think it's improved across states with the potential to boost consumption. Adding to that, if I were to just look at quick eyeball into the GST, electricity generation, the TRAI generation, index of industrial production, I think all of these are showing positive trends. Now let me quickly add this to the ground level. I think what's happening -- what I hear…

Srinivasan Vaidyanathan

Analyst

Thanks, Arvind for that. The next segment I want to talk about is the commercial and rural business that saw a robust sequential growth of 7.4% quarter-on-quarter, capturing strong underlying economic activity and continued market share gains. Rahul, a few words on this, please.

Rahul Shukla

Analyst

Thank you, Srini. As Srini said, commercial and rural banking had a end-of-period growth in assets, 27.4% Y-o-Y, 7.5% Q-o-Q. The CASA performance remained strong at 21% Y-o-Y and 4.6% Q-o-Q. Business growth was aided by continued market share gains, expansion in SURU segments, the semi-urban and rural areas, underlying strength in the economy and carry forward of June momentum as we opened up after the still environment in April and May. While the growth rates were high in a normally quiet quarter, we entered into a traditionally strong second half, where we are already seeing strength. We have a strong growth outlook in both the December and March quarters. Our rural banking business had approximately 12% quarter-on-quarter growth, helped by record disbursements, strong customer acquisition through deeper village penetration in 1 lakh villages where we already operate; secondly, through program expansion in 1 lakh more villages, which we are steering over the next 18 to 24-month period; crop diversification, focus on small and marginal farmer, slightly delayed but strong sowing from June to July with a normal monsoon; and rural infrastructure support initiatives. The business remains on track for a 20% to 25% growth for the full year on a conservative basis. Our transportation finance business saw a 5.2% Q-o-Q increase. We have now improved our market share to 25% to 30% with almost all OEMs in the product categories that we want to be present in strength. Retail commercial vehicle volumes that we financed in this particular quarter compared to Y-o-Y, it was 4.5x. But if you look at it, the industry volumes grew 1.2x. So we significantly improved our position. Similar trends in both construction equipment and tractor. The second half is expected to be a stronger period, and the industry is in a growth phase. The…

Srinivasan Vaidyanathan

Analyst

Okay. Thank you. Thanks to you both, Rahul and Arvind for that, getting the ground level view of what's going on there. Now getting to revenues. Net revenues grew by 14.7% to INR25,085 crore, driven by an advances growth of 15.5% and deposits growth of 14.4%. Net interest income for the quarter was at INR17,684 crore, which is 70% of net revenues. It is up 12.1% over previous year and up 4% over previous quarter. The core net interest margin for the quarter was at 4.1%, which is similar to range in the prior period. Net interest income growth is reflective of underlying shift from unsecured lending, essentially gravitating towards higher-rated segments in the COVID period. This is also represented in our ratio of net interest income to RWA, which is consistent at around 6%. Moving on to the details of other income. Other income at INR7,401 crore was up 21.5% over prior year and 17% over previous quarter. Fees and commission income, that constitutes approximately 2/3 of the other income was at INR4,946 crore and grew by 25.5% compared to prior year. Retail constitutes approximately 93% and wholesale constitutes 7% of the fees and commission income. FX and derivatives income at INR867 crore was higher by 55% compared to prior year. Trading income was at INR676 crore for the quarter, prior year was at INR1,016 crores. Prior quarter was at around this level at INR601 crore. Miscellaneous income, of which -- which is at INR912 crore includes recoveries from written-off accounts and dividends from subsidiaries. We'll cover about the recoveries from written-off accounts at a later stage. Expenses for the quarter, those were at INR9,278 crore, an increase of 15% -- 15.2% over previous year. Year-on-year, we added 256 branches, almost 1 branch per workday, bringing the total branches…

Jimmy Tata

Analyst

Sure, Srini. Thank you. Hi, good evening, everyone. So a bit of an update on what's happening on credit and credit quality over here. So as we entered this third -- this quarter, the impact of the second wave was actually abating with lifting of lockdowns, economy opening up and of course, the rapid progress of vaccination. This improvement in economic and business activities further accelerated during August and September. And as a result of this, there have been improvements in various key risk indicators, which I will just come to in a minute, which has resulted in a gradual reversal to kind of business as usual situation. Let me elaborate on the portfolio quality with the help of these risk metrics, and I'll just start with retail assets. So if you look at demand resolution, at an overall retail asset level, the demand resolution for the month of September was 97.5%. It's almost back to the pre-COVID levels of 98% and is higher than the level seen before the second wave of March '21, which was before the second wave hit us. We move on to the resolution rates across various DPD buckets. I'll just give you a bit of color on that. The bounce resolution has also shown a lot of improvement. We are now better off than the pre-COVID levels of Feb '20 in most of the products. And it might also be of interest for everyone to know that around 10% more than the customers who previously used to self-cure on bounce are now self-curing. What this means is the customer bounces, but does not require any intervention or persuasion to actually clear and clears check on his own. So that's another encouraging sign in terms of what bounces and the resolution there. Moving to the…

Srinivasan Vaidyanathan

Analyst

Thank you, Jimmy. Now getting on to the -- PBT is printed and at INR11,883 crores, 17.5% growth for the profit after tax at INR8,834 crore, 17.6%. Now with that, getting to balance sheet, I'll keep it light because it's part of the published balance sheet anyway. But all I want to bring to attention is that the 4.5% growth over previous quarter on deposits and 14.4% over the previous year on the deposit side is approximately INR61,000 crores of growth -- the net growth in the quarter on deposits and INR1,77,000 crores growth since last year. I want to leave that part. And similarly, on the advances, the 4.5% sequential, 15.5% year-on-year growth on advances means it is about INR51,000 crores of net growth in the quarter and INR1,51,000 crores growth since prior year. Now on the capital adequacy, 20% against a regulatory minimum of 11.075%; Tier 1 at 18.7%; CET1 stands at 17.4%. Now with that, I want to move to give some highlights on HDB Financial Services. It'll be on NDIS basis because NBFC follows NDIS accounts. The total loan book as of September end stood at INR60,000 crore, with a secured loan book comprising over 70% of the total loan book. Our conservative underwriting policies on new customer acquisition, which was implemented post-COVID, continues to be in place, and the company will review its stand, review course based on external environment. With increased focus for the disbursements at about INR8,000 crores in the quarter, recorded a 93% growth quarter-on-quarter and 27% growth year-on-year. With monsoon receding through the country and onset of festival season, we are optimistic on a further uptick in disbursements through Q3 and Q4 quarters that have traditionally shown relatively strong over the years -- strong growth over the years. For this recent…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The first question is from the line of Mahrukh Adajania from Elara Capital.

Mahrukh Adajania

Analyst

My first question is on NII growth. So what would it really take to get back NII growth to the mid-teens? Would it be traction on credit cards? What would it take? That's my first question.

Srinivasan Vaidyanathan

Analyst

Okay. See, there's a couple of things to keep in mind, right? If you look at over a period of 6 to 8 quarters, how the book transitioned from a retail to wholesale over a period of time and we are at a threshold inflection point where the retail is now starting to tick-up and at least the momentum on the retail is more than wholesale. Right? And I did give one particular data this time around to talk about net interest income on RWA at 6%, right? So if you look at it, the pricing is for the risk. And certain segments that we grew over the last 18 months or so were low-risk segments. That means with a lower price that comes with it. But adequately, at the bottom line, if you see the last 18 months return, our ROE has been quite steady, 1.9% in this quarter and about 1.9% to 2% every other quarter over the last 4, 5 quarters. So that was one. The inflection point has come and the retail is going up, right, so which has got a higher NII from that sense. That's to keep in mind on that one. The second thing is that even in this quarter, while we have had the retail growth coming up, the -- so for the average to catch up will take a couple of quarters for the average to catch up with the overall base. So one has to wait through a few quarters like the way it took a few quarters for this, and now it will take a few more quarters to get there.

Mahrukh Adajania

Analyst

My next question is on restructuring. So the restructuring is higher than what we saw in the first wave, that is R 2. So what is the profile of these restructured loans? Were they the ones that opted for moratorium last year?

Srinivasan Vaidyanathan

Analyst

One thing I will mention, and then Jimmy will talk more. But one thing I did mention that out of the 150 basis points, 25 basis points is accounts that are not restructured, but we have reported restructured because at the borrower level, one other facility of that borrower has been restructured. So it is reported. Otherwise, I would have reported 125 basis points, but we said 150 basis points -- 152 basis points, to be precise. Jimmy, you want to take the profile of...

Jimmy Tata

Analyst

Yes, sure. Thanks, Srini. The restructuring has been availed by many diverse people. And as I mentioned earlier, we've been quite empathetic on this. We haven't tried to be excessively strict as to whether want to or not. If someone asked for it, and we felt that the person is going to recover well, we would offer that restructuring. Yes, there will be moratorium customers in the restructuring book. And in fact, in the various analytics that I mentioned, one of the considerations is a moratorium customers' behavior, pre- and post-moratorium as well. So there would be some moratorium customers in that portfolio.

Mahrukh Adajania

Analyst

Sure. But the analysis that you have done would be on R 1, right, not on R 2?

Jimmy Tata

Analyst

We have done it on both, Mahrukh. Of course, one has to admit that there’s not so much time lapsed post R 2 and therefore the analytics on the R 2 book has focused a lot on the behavior of the customer and his attributes before the restructuring. We have found, when we are building these models, that both the behavior before and post-restructuring has had a significant bearing on the outcome of the stability of the person thereafter. So of course, we’ll keep up to date with you in future calls as well as to what’s happening. But at this point of time, yes, we have analyzed R 2. We have a reasonable insight into it. And what we put out is what we think the impact is going to be at this point in time.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Kunal Shah from ICICI Securities.

Kunal Shah

Analyst

Again, on restructuring. So broadly, what you are suggesting is with respect to OTR 2. But if you look at the outstanding restructured pool, should that be altogether at around about INR20,500-odd crores, both OTR 1 and OTR 2 put together?

Srinivasan Vaidyanathan

Analyst

1.5% would be little less than INR20,000 crores. 1.5% would be about INR18,000 crores or so.

Kunal Shah

Analyst

Yes. So INR18,000 crores would be this under 2.0. And OTR 1, the way we had given the movement out there, that is INR5,600 crores, and there is overlap of INR2,600 crores. So there would be further addition of INR3,000-odd crore under OTR 1 as well?

Srinivasan Vaidyanathan

Analyst

No, no. This is for total number I gave you. 1.5% is the total, R 1 and R 2 total.

Kunal Shah

Analyst

Okay. And secondly, in terms of the nature, so broadly, when we look at retail, in particular, wherein, say, under 2.0, it is INR14,000-odd crores, would the split in retail between secured and unsecured be similar to the overall loan book or it will be more skewed, say, toward either of that?

Srinivasan Vaidyanathan

Analyst

It will be within the -- secured, unsecured -- have we disclosed secured unsecured? No, we haven't, Kunal -- we haven't produced that for -- it's not in the table.

Kunal Shah

Analyst

Sorry?

Srinivasan Vaidyanathan

Analyst

No. The table we published, Kunal, there is no split between the secured and unsecured.

Kunal Shah

Analyst

Yes. No, sir, just wanted to get some sense if it will be similar or maybe it is more skewed toward the secured houses that maybe the profile, particularly within the retail loans of INR14,000-odd crores. If maybe, qualitatively, you can comment, yes.

Srinivasan Vaidyanathan

Analyst

I don't have it in front of me. Jimmy, if you have...

Jimmy Tata

Analyst

I don't have the numbers either, but it's mixed is what I can tell you, but I don't have exact numbers.

Kunal Shah

Analyst

Sure. And in terms of the movement which is shown with respect to OTR 1, so finally, and the way we are seeing is almost 20%, 22% has slipped. There is 12%-odd, which has written off. So both put together almost like 30% from last time's restructuring, it has either slipped or written off. Now, maybe with respect to the current pool, okay, what we are seeing under 2.0, should we see similar kind of behavior within this restructured pool? Because I think you highlighted 10 bps, 20 bps kind of an impact when you did that risk assessment analysis. So how we are actually getting towards that, yes?

Srinivasan Vaidyanathan

Analyst

That's what Jimmy went through, Kunal, which is to analyze the entire book according to his risk models, the models that he uses for both application review as well as the models that he uses for collection behavior and prioritization. Through those models, that's how we arrived at saying that we need to be watchful for 10 basis points to 20 basis points at any time that we need to be watchful in that portfolio.

Kunal Shah

Analyst

Okay. Sure. And just -- I'm asking in terms of this payment product. So obviously, a significant part would be the credit card portfolio within this payment product. So another INR3,000-odd crore, which is there, if I broadly assume, maybe even comparing the last quarter's number. This would be more kind of a pay-later or maybe the EMI, which you are referring to, which is getting plugged within that portfolio, would that be the broader number to assume?

Srinivasan Vaidyanathan

Analyst

Whatever you were talking, Kunal, were echoing. I couldn't...

Kunal Shah

Analyst

No, I'm saying, we have disclosed payment products separately this time. So when we look at the last quarter, wherein we have discussed credit card as well, and there was a payment product, there is -- maybe credit card would be subset of it, and there is additional INR3,000-odd crores, which is there. So would it be fair to assume that this INR3,000 crores is easy EMI or maybe pay-later kind of a product which is sitting in that pool?

Srinivasan Vaidyanathan

Analyst

So that is part of the consumer durables that is added there right now.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Suresh Ganapathy from Macquarie.

Suresh Ganapathy

Analyst

Srini, Just couple of questions. One is on these -- we understand, obviously, the staff expenses having gone up because of the ESOP issue, but even other expenses have gone up so very sharply Q-o-Q. I mean, how much of this is related to, say, technology and if that indeed is going to be decreased? Do you see a gradual rise every quarter as you spend more on technology? Just to understand what could be the impact of that in other expenses this quarter? And the second question is, can you share the GMV of the SmartBuy platform? If you can, that would be great. And also please comment on the relationship with Paytm. What are you trying to achieve through the Paytm network?

Srinivasan Vaidyanathan

Analyst

Okay. Two things that you asked about on the expenses. The expenses growth, Suresh, you will see that as retail is powering ahead, which it has already started to power ahead, the cost of acquisition, sales, promotion, marketing, the retail is far intensive on the front end cost, you will see that the cost is leading. And the income comes from an accrual over time. So that’s something that will happen. And then if you look at historically what happened when the retail came down, you’ll see that the costs came down too, right? And the retail is now getting up. And so this will go up. So that is one answer to that. If you see that the leading indicators of some of the retail activity is going up, the cost will go up, that’s one. And the approvals will come, and we will time it in a way that how much of growth we want at the kind of what price and what kind of cost to income, we, as a management, we need to decide and take. But that’s at least – we’re making the right kind of investments for future growth. That’s one. In terms of your technology cost, yes, technology cost, that has increased, but not a big deal of an increase. It will be normal increase that we have seen, 15%, 16% is growing sequential growth of 4%. So that’s the kind of a rate, 4%, 5%. It’ll have 1 percentage or so more. Again, timing more than anything. But yes, the tech cost of the investments that we have done – that we are doing and will do will come over time, that we migrate. And the benefits of that implementation should be felt more in the cost per acquisition going down because…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Adarsh Parasrampuria from CLSA.

Adarsh Parasrampuria

Analyst

Srini and team, question was on the provisioning that we continue to create some contingencies. I just wanted to understand, within that pool of contingencies, is all the restructuring provisions included there? Like, can you continue to increase that buffer? You provided INR1,200 crores in this quarter. Could you guide to what's the -- how are you looking at this number? Is there a threshold where the bank wants to reach and will feel comfortable with that number? Because otherwise, the provisioning was slightly low if I go back.

Srinivasan Vaidyanathan

Analyst

Okay. See, the way we will -- we evaluate provisions every quarter in terms of how we should look at it and how we should evaluate that and take forward, yes, when we look at the total provisions is what you need to look at the INR9,000 crores that we have, the INR7,700 crores or so of contingent and the INR1,400-odd crores of floating provisions together taken. Yes, restructuring is considered when we look at various provisioning approach that we do. And what is our target? There's no particular target. We will look at it, we will evaluate it. To the extent that it makes the balance sheet more resilient, if there were to be another way, if there were to be another shot, the balance sheet needs to be much more resilient, and that's how we will evaluate. Historically, we've been conservative, and our stance has not changed from that sense.

Adarsh Parasrampuria

Analyst

Got it. And second question is, Rahul, to you. If you can break up that loan book piece that is now being disclosed separately for rural and commercial into the top 3, 4 pockets, then that will help just to put it in context of the growth opportunity in each of them.

Rahul Shukla

Analyst

So, look, I’m not familiar as to what breakup do we go and give out. But let me just basically talk to you about what are the opportunities. I have a rural book, in which, if you look at bureau data, between June ‘20 and June ‘21, we increased our market share, whereas if you take a look at the private sector banks as a whole, there was a decline in market share. We feel very comfortable in terms of expanding in that space because we had a NPA percentage decline as per bureau data as well as the absolute NPA amount, whereas if you take the ecosystem, other partners in our category, they had a 2 percentage increase in NPA percentage. So we are going to grow. Now the question is, what is the opportunity space in this to grow? And that opportunity space is INR15,00000 crore. So we are a small proportion of that. If you split that between secured and unsecured lending, we would be about 10% to 11% of the secured lending, but there is a lot of room to go out and do that, especially given government policies transitioning agri to a sustainable rural ecosystem focus rather than just focus on crop – three crop, which basically is water guzzling, so to say, wheat, rice and sugarcane. Now on the MSME piece, come back and think about the SME, retail and the SME wholesale, that entire space is roughly about – again, INR20,00000 crores or so. And that is the number that you’re looking at. And so when we say that, look, wherever we are going to be at the end of the financial year, that amount, we are going to basically do incremental disbursement in the following year. That looks very possible because there are about 1.5 crores MSMEs who today borrow, of the overall spectrum of 6.5 crore MSME customers. My share of those 1.5 crores is fractional, very small. I mean, I wouldn’t say that it is something that does not leave for a runway for growth for me. And of course, if you look at today, the mid-corporate segment, it’s vibrant, it’s healthy, it is growing. We just have to go out and meet customers. And let me put it this way, the brand pull and the offering is so, so strong that one of my team members was telling me day before yesterday that we just have to show up at certain places and customers just basically are ready to tie up and welcome us into their banking relationship. So that is sort of where we are. And that’s how I gave you the current growth numbers, the growth outlook, which should give you a sense, given the opportunity space that there isn’t a ceiling on the growth in the near-term or medium-term in this space.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Saurabh from J.P. Morgan.

Saurabh Kumar

Analyst

Srini, could you just quantify first the growth and the net slippage number for this quarter? The second was, if you could also quantify what is your technology spend to revenue and where would you want it to go to over the next 2 years? And thirdly, was a question on growth. So Rahul and Arvind have spoken about doubling their books over next 2, 3 years. So I just want to, number one, confirm if that indeed is the outlook? And secondly, what's your view on the corporate loan growth?

Srinivasan Vaidyanathan

Analyst

Okay. One is in terms of -- let's take the technology spend. You wanted the technology spend that we have forecast. It's not something that we've put out in terms of what we -- not just accounts we spend, we don't put an outlook or a forecast -- forward-looking statements at all on that. All we can tell you is that we are making investments across everywhere. I'll give you an indication of the branches, 400 branches imminently to open. We're adding people. So far, we've added 12,500 people in the last 12 months. We'll continue to add people. We are making investments in technology. So it is a continuous process. If anything, we will make more investments in technology, and thereby, get the best out of the digital offerings that we can do. But as part of this call, there's several kind of instances we alluded to and described in terms of the digitization and in terms of the digital delivery, both from an acquiring point of view and the servicing point of view. We want to be in the forefront of that to gets restructured as much as we can, right? So that's something. But certainly, the thought process are good in terms of looking for it. But unfortunately, it's not one item that I can give an outlook or a forecast, right? Because we don't do that. I cannot do that.

Saurabh Kumar

Analyst

Srini, can you quantify the current number? What will be your current percentage to revenue or percentage of cost, how much will that be?

Srinivasan Vaidyanathan

Analyst

That's how it's delivered between -- given period is 2.7% to 2.8% of revenue, right? That's how you can think about it, and that's where we are. Or in other words, if you think about it, 7.5% or 8% of expenses. If you think about, that's the kind of a technology costs.

Saurabh Kumar

Analyst

Okay. got it. Slippage and the growth?

Srinivasan Vaidyanathan

Analyst

Slippage I've given you 45 basis points or annualized at 1.8% or INR5,300 crores, that's the slippage. And...

Saurabh Kumar

Analyst

The next slippage also, Srini, if you have?

Srinivasan Vaidyanathan

Analyst

Wholesale growth outlook. Yes, okay, I can talk a minute on the wholesale growth outlook. It all depends on two things. One is the infrastructure spending from the government, which seems to be already started because there are good signs – early signs that we are seeing. Once that starts, we expect the corporates to get behind that. So that could be maybe one quarter away before we see the light of that into the corporate book and thereby be participating in that. We are, I think, about 30% to – 30% to 1/3 of our book is from lending, which – and we are one of the largest providers of infrastructure funding in the country. So we will be participating in that, and we hope to get that with us. That’s one. The second aspect of the wholesale growth is also the capacity augmentation by the corporate. At this moment, the capacity utilization has not come back to the robust level of mid-70s, and that’s something to watch out, 70%, 75% capacity utilization. Last time around, when we touched that range, there was no capacity augmentation. But this time around, we do expect that once it gets there, there will be corporate demand coming in from there. But again, we do see that the corporates have much more flexibility now because times have changed. They’re able to access the capital markets directly. So that is also one other factor to keep in mind. And yes, we do expect – we need to be patient for another quarter or so, and you can see where that is developing.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Abhishek Khanna from Jefferies.

Prakhar Sharma

Analyst

This is Prakhar. Srini, my question is on the restructuring and the provisioning. Just wanted to take some perspective from you and Jimmy. So in the Round 1, you had restructured over INR7,800-odd crores of loans, of which INR5,467 crores were actually the personal loan in that category. And against that, you have made some overall provisions of INR930 crores. Now when I'm looking at the flow of these restructured loans, of the total loans, about INR1,680 crores have slipped, majority of them being in personal loans. If I'm just looking at the personal loan bucket, about 25% have slipped into NPAs and you have written off a majority, maybe 70%-plus of it already. I'm assuming this is like a 6, 7-month phase period that we have gone through since the restructuring was completed. So my question is, one, are we seeing almost 40%, 50% of the personal loans likely to slip into NPAs out of Round 1? And should we be applying a similar percentage to the INR14,000 crores you restructured now? And in that context, how do you look at your contingent plus floating provision levels?

Srinivasan Vaidyanathan

Analyst

One thing I'll comment on the contingent and floating and Jimmy will talk about the quality, which I believe he talked, but he will recap it again. One, we believe that our contingent and floating provisions have done broadly, not just directed on the restructuring, but more broadly, to make the balance sheet more resilient for any shocks, right? So that's something to keep in mind. So it's not just the contingent provision for restructuring. It is broadly against the balance sheet and to be more resilient and not have a start and have fits and starts and fits and starts so that we are able to go through, when the growth cycle is there, we are able to go through the growth without the fits and starts. That's what the contingent provision is supposed to cushion ourselves. Jimmy, in terms of the analysis that you had, you had already talked about it, but please.

Jimmy Tata

Analyst

Yes. Sure, Srini. I’ll just go through it once again. So we do have our restructured portfolio, and we continue to monitor this, and it is under heightened monitoring at all points in time. To answer the question you asked directly should – if I got your question correctly, should we expect 50% of that to slip into NPA? The answer is no. We are evaluating this, as I mentioned, on several different criteria. I think Mahrukh had also asked a question on that. I mentioned about one of the criteria, even being on the moratorium customers and their behavior pre- or post-moratorium as well as their behavior, pre- and post- the restructuring. Based on the analysis that we have done so far at this point in time, we don’t think the impact would be more than 10 to 20 basis points on our NPAs at any given point in time.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this was the last question for today. I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Vaidyanathan for closing comments.

Srinivasan Vaidyanathan

Analyst

Okay. Thank you, Rutuja for hosting and conducting this. We thank all the participants for participating and engaging with us today. We appreciate your time. And anything further you need, we are available and Ajit Shetty from our Investor Relations would be available to talk at any time. Thank you. Bye-bye.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. On behalf of HDFC Bank Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines.