Earnings Labs

HDFC Bank Limited (HDB)

Q2 2023 Earnings Call· Sat, Oct 15, 2022

$25.41

-1.19%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, good evening, and welcome to HDFC Bank Limited Q2 FY '23 Earnings Conference Call on the Financial Results Presented by the Management of HDFC Bank. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Srinivasan Vaidyanathan, Chief Financial Officer, HDFC Bank. Thank you. And over to you, sir.

Srinivasan Vaidyanathan

Analyst

Thank you, Rutuja. Good evening to all. Let's start with a brief overview for the context. We believe that the continued recovery in domestic demand boosted with the onset of festive season and higher government CapExprovides support to the growth. While there are risks coming from the possibility of global slowdown, higher inflationary pressure and an uneven monsoon, consumer demand and fiscal spends are likely to keep the economy stimulated. Geopolitical instability, strong U.S. dollar, et cetera, continue to occupy center stage during the quarter. Active indicators released during July to September quarter indicate that economic activity continues to hold up despite global risk. High frequency and other indicators have risen so far this year and is also promising to provide further opportunity and optimism in the economy. Labor market conditions are also improving in the rural areas as seen by the fall in the Mnrega work demand and the rise in wage growth. RBI raised the policy rate by 100 basis points in the quarter, taking the repo rate to 5.9%, the Central Bank has hiked rates by 190 basis points since May 22. The Central Bank has kept its stance unchanged at withdrawal of accommodation with supporting growth. We estimate that the GDP growth to be around 7% for financial year '23. Let's go through key themes. On the distribution expansion. We added 121 branches during the quarter, and about 500 more branches are in various stages in the pipeline to be opened in the next few months. We have 15,691 business correspondence, an increase of 73% over prior quarter. Gold loan processing are now offered in 2,960 branches, an increase of 900 branches in the current quarter and up 2.2x over March 22. Payment acceptance points have grown by INR 269,000 in the quarter to INR 3.5…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. The first question is from the line of Mahrukh Adajania from [ Nuvama ].

Mahrukh Adajania

Analyst

Congratulations. Sir, my first question is on the liability growth going ahead. Of course, this quarter was impressive with strong retail growth. But as we move closer to the merger? And if you assume that RBI does not give any dispensation -- then how would the liability strategies change? Would it be focused on wholesale borrowing, wholesale deposits? And even this quarter, your wholesale borrowings have also grown with deposits. So what is the color? I mean what kind of borrowings would these be?

Srinivasan Vaidyanathan

Analyst

Okay. Thank you. In terms of the deposit strategy or the funding strategy, as we have articulated over the last 3 months, including the May month or the June month when we have met and continues that, that is a very important aspect focused area for our execution. There are several components of the strategy, which is branch-led, relationship based and we articulated in terms of how self-funding across various products to deepen those relationships and get the funding is still important. So we gave you some examples of various opportunities that we go there, right? That remains and continues to be the focus. And that is why we -- you see that the retail push is there, INR 71,000 crores of growth in the quarter in retail. And the same year last quarter, retail did INR 50,000 crores of deposit growth in the last quarter. So we are building up that momentum in retail as you see. The branch network that we open, branch network with a more medium term, long term so that the pipeline in 2, 3 years' time continues to be there. That's what the branch is. Currently, it is about harvesting and utilizing those branches. 60% of those branches are migrating from one vintage bucket, to another vintage bucket, that is what is driving and including bringing in to new customers, right? So that continues to be the main stay of the strategy. There are other market borrowings that opportunistically happen, and that will continue depending on what happens in the market. I specially take to call and depends on what funding for the day is required, but that is all that is handled there.

Mahrukh Adajania

Analyst

Got it. So Sir, my next question is, if you could share any outlook on margins, not necessarily in the very near term. But where do you see margins going, say, 2 to 3 quarters down the line on a stand-alone basis? I know merger put pressure on margins. So any outlook on stand-alone margin?

Srinivasan Vaidyanathan

Analyst

I'll generally talk about margins rather than an outlook that the bank does not provide any forward-looking guidance. But I don't want you to take back a clear so that we can think about what that margin remains, right? Typically, we have operated between 3.94 to 4.45%, right? That's the typical range at which we operate. And when we operated at that range, the mix of products is very important, which is the retail mix between 53% to 55% and the wholesale next wheel wholesale component of the mix, 45% to 47%. Over the last 2, 3 years, it's switch. Retail is now at 45%. -- wholesale is at 55%, it's switched, so we're on the low end of the range and now the rate cycle is going up, right? So you're seeing some slight pickup in the margin because there's a leader lag effect. So the -- most of the wholesale products we have about 55% of the book, which is floating index-based floating rate. And we have another 45% that's fixed rate mostly is in the retail type of loans. And within that floating rate as the rates moved up, we are seeing that the lead effect on the asset pricing happens, right? That's it. So there are 2 aspects. One, the interest rate cycle moves a bit up. There is always an opportunity to the great growth up, yield and lag, lag on the deposits need on the loans that is there. And the second aspect is that we continue to see the mix change that needs to happen. As we have said, the economy is 60% consumption led. That is now over a period of 10, 20 years, we have had a need in the retail -- and now that momentum is picking up, we saw the last quarter, retail book closed over 20% on advances, call it, sequential growth close to 5%. And even in the June quarter, it was similar. So we're seeing that it is 20-plus, right? That's the kind of rate at which the retail is moving. And as long as you see that continue to pump and move up, you will see that the mix is moving. That is also the opportunity for the margin to move on. So these are the 2 aspects you can keep in mind in their models to think about how the margin moves.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from the line of Suresh Ganapathy from Macquarie.

Suresh Ganapathy

Analyst

I had 2 questions. One is on the deposit rate itself. So the Reserve Bank of India has hiked rates by 190 basis points. But none of your banks have hiked deposit rates even by half of that amount, right? So if I look at track your own deposit rates in the 1-year to 2-year category, they have only gone up by 50, 60 basis points in the last 6 months. So there is a significant gap between what RBI is doing versus what you guys are doing from a monthly policy transmission. Now that the second half is going to be a bit tighter and tougher -- what is the outlook on deposit rates itself because it is grossly inadequate compared to what the Reserve Bank Of India is doing. So how do you see that panning out? That's point number one. And the second question is on branch addition itself that you have a targeted branch opening of 1,500 or 2,000 branches every year. If I look at the first half, the number of brands is added, if I'm not wrong, is 350. So again, significant below that significantly below that target. So how do you look at the branch additions? And you think this second half is going to be very strong. I'll just squeeze in one more question with respect to the NCLT approval, which has come for convening a shareholders' meeting, does this mean that the pace of approvals are better than expectations, which means that the September deadline that we are talking about the merger, which was initially said in the presentation, can be brought forward.

Srinivasan Vaidyanathan

Analyst

Okay. Thank you for that, Suresh, very important one. First is in terms of the deposit rates as such. The way we think about the deposit, CASA is a different base, right? It's completely administered. So it leaves us to decide about the time deposits that we're talking about. -- the way we price the time deposit is that if you think about certain public sector peers and private sector peers, so the bank in its codetermined in terms of how to be competitively priced, right? And when you look at that, we are more or less in line with certain private sectors here. That's how the pricing is. So that it is not that an advantage or a disadvantage, we are there. And so it is only about the execution capability to get them. So it is not rate-based rate driven kind of a sales or a marketing process. It is more of a relationship base and the kind of our ability to go make comping the customer point of view. Then if you think about the public sector peers, there are certain points in the curve that we are higher, typically in the mid to medium to longer end of the curve, we are slightly higher. And in the shorter end of the curve, we are slightly lower. It's not by our design. If you look at our spend deposit yield curve, it is a clear upward sloping in origin to point in the curve is upward sloping, but there are other players who have different from the real management, I guess the different pricing. So that's how we monitor that and see how at which price point we need the money and thereby, the pricing is done in such a way. So there is no such formula…

Suresh Ganapathy

Analyst

Okay. I'm sorry, clarity in RBI exemption?

Srinivasan Vaidyanathan

Analyst

As regards to RBI exemptions, we continue to be dialogue on that. There is no particular line of clarity or anything, but with the conversation continues on that front.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from the line of Kunal Shah from ICICI Securities.

Kunal Shah

Analyst

Congratulations. So first question, particularly with respect to payment products growth both on a quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year. It seems to be lagging a bit to the industry, but we are not seeing any loss in market share with respect to spend credit card spend. So is it more in terms of the behavior of the transactors versus revolver? How should we look into this? Or maybe it's more of another payment product contribution that is leading to near 2% sequential growth.

Srinivasan Vaidyanathan

Analyst

Good time for asking Kunal on that. Yes, on the spend, we see a good amount of traction coming on the spend. And it's not pan-sector driven spend. We do see customers who are spending have very good liquidity. But as I think last time also I said and it's more or less at the similar level, which is, if you look at our card customers, liability balances is close to 5x the loan balance, right, of those customers. So on an average total, right, the total average. So we see enormous amount of liquidity. So the pay downs are quite high. The revolver rate have not picked up. Revolver rates are still at that 70%, 75% of the precore level. So last quarter -- this quarter, we haven't seen the revolver picking up. We do look at revolver into 3 or 4 buckets, which is, call it, for lack of another better term chronic revolvers, which means somebody will revolve more than 6x, 9x in a given 12 months. Somebody who revolve say to 6 months, somebody would revolve to 3 months, right? And so those kind of analysis we see, we see that people who have the tendency to evolve over a longer period has actually come down. And there is an early sign of a pickup. That means that 1 to 3 months revolver type of profile customers are slightly picking up. So we do see something, but it's very early. We have not seen that credit card customers who all was coming bank on post the core. We don't see that.

Kunal Shah

Analyst

Sure. And secondly, with respect to the commercial banking. So again, when we look at the breakup of GNPA, there is still improvement as far as retail and corporate is concerned. But commercial ex of agri is still steady. And given the entire inflationary impact, which we are seeing some export-oriented industries might also get impacted because of global recession. So what would be our view with respect to the outlook as far as commercial banking is concerned, given that the growth is also at a rapid pace. And what incremental measures we are taking in this kind of a scenario of global slowdown... Yes.

Srinivasan Vaidyanathan

Analyst

Okay. See, the strength of the commercial banking, excluding the agree that you are seeing about the call it the SME segment more particularly to half of the SME segment. -- we see quite a robustness and that there goes to the model, origination model and management model, relationship model of the customer. Lender is one of the value proposition. I think previously, we have talked about -- we have said that even in the May month, we presented where the self-funding ratio, as we call it, which is the liabilities generated by this segment through their own cash management account and through the promoters account and to their employees account, that's the 80%, 85% self-funded, which -- that is part of the business model to ensure that there is a kind of a good monitoring process for credit management, right? That's part of that model. That's part of the stability that comes from there. And again, the secondary collateral more than 85%, 90% to secondary collateral. So in addition to the primary collateral of land or plant and machinery and stocking trade and so on. The secondary collateral is also very important. So there's a much more skin in the game for the bank and the customers to work together. That's part of how we handle. So irrespective to the cycle that you've seen even through the COVID cycle, this particular segment that [indiscernible] quite unscathed and quite good.

Kunal Shah

Analyst

But are we tightening any norms over here, just looking into global slowdown or maybe exports could get impacted?

Srinivasan Vaidyanathan

Analyst

We haven't seen that we've yet we still see good cash flow -- strong cash flows coming in. And our credit takes the call on a case-to-case basis on these types of levels.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from the line of Rahul Jain from Goldman Sachs.

Rahul Jain

Analyst

Send congrats to you and for good numbers. Just had 2 important questions. One is, can you just help us understand on the headcount side, we've added about close to 9-odd thousand in this quarter. How many more do we need to hire for this year? I would imagine we may have preempted or maybe preponed some hiring for the upcoming branch expansion. Is that the right way of looking at it or we need to do more hiring as we move along the year. And even for the next couple of years, how do we think about the headcount?

Srinivasan Vaidyanathan

Analyst

Okay. Good. Yes. See, yes, there is some level of hiring for the branches happened and will happen for more new branches as we determine and complete that location will start to go into higher, right? As soon as the location is signed, the hiring starts so that as the assessment in the branch is happening, the people are lined up to come. So if that happens and it will happen. But however, the broader question that you ask is how we should think about the headcount itself at the total level. Yes, we do think that with the digital efforts that we are putting through and the journey several of the journeys, I think last quarter, we talked about the calendar of various digital journeys to go through in Q3, Q4. We do see a lot of traction gaining on the digital front. So there at the rate at which it will be added, we probably don't need to add, right, at that rate. That's one. And there are certain kind of a sales force to street sales force, which may be operating even on a subsidiary. And it's necessary, we're going to bring them on our books store. So it may be simply a shift of headcount coming from subsidiary into the bank because of better management, we're going to give them a higher value relationship management, so we'll bring the need to the bank and hire. So it is not a particular number that determines limiting in terms of -- these are the 2, 3 ways in which we think can do. One, branch we need to, we need to not replace secretion from as we go into the digital journey. And as we bring people the purpose sales force into the bank for higher relationship management, there will be some addition. So that's how we should think about it.

Rahul Jain

Analyst

So just if I may do a follow-on, how much would be salesforce out of this 161,000 employees? Any significant number?

Srinivasan Vaidyanathan

Analyst

There are about 45,000. I think the last number we reported, I think, was in March, but that's a similar number that 45,000 people, if you see, is the salesforce which is there. And then there are a few layers above that, that are supervising layers of the salesforce, right? And if you look at those levels, they will be levels 10 or 11 below the CEO.

Rahul Jain

Analyst

Understood. Got it. Just another question was on the credit deposit, which since expanded in this quarter, and it is now at about closer to 88%, 89%. And in addition to this, when we see our incremental market share in deposits has increased quite a bit in the last year or so. So when you look ahead in the future, let's say, the next couple of quarters, how do we think about the combination of credit and deposit growth playing out? Can we sustain this incremental market share gains because the system is now ratcheting up the efforts on deposit mobilization by offering higher rates, et cetera? Or we'll also have to kind of up the game there because the CD ratio, whatever we had to juice out we have already juiced out. So how do you think about these prospects... Okay.

Srinivasan Vaidyanathan

Analyst

Okay. Good. Yes. See, in terms of the CD ratio or in terms of the deposit growth and the advance of growth and how to see that there are -- I know we are in a particular interest rate cycle. But if you -- you have to go back to 5 years or even 10 years in the past, right, when there have been 2 or 3 cycles and see what has happened over those 2 or 3 cycles, right? And if you see that, 2012 to '17, 2.4, 2.5x. That's the rate of growth on both sides. And if you go to 2017 to '22, that is the kind of a similar 2.3x, right, rate of growth. So I'll point you to -- through the interstate cycle over a period of time. Call it, a decade. We can grow on more 5-year block behind that. Or it of decade, that is the kind of the rate of growth, and that is how we are capacitized and that is how the execution happens.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from the line of Abhishek Murarka from HSBC.

Abhishek Murarka

Analyst

Congratulations for the quarter to you and your team. So just a few questions. One is going back to the NIM conversation. Now you pointed out that the mix is where it is, and that's why you're at the lower end of the rails. And it's the rates that are going up, that is playing out. So suffice to sort of figure from this that as the deposit rates start catching up, we should get back to a 4% kind of level for NIM? Or is that not going to be the case and you would be able to maintain this additional spread that you've called...

Srinivasan Vaidyanathan

Analyst

As it relates to rate related, that's where we are focused on. There is a need in the large effort. Right... Which is -- so it is -- if you see the rate that has changed, 90 basis points in the June quarter and 100 basis points in the September quarter. And as the market prediction is that there is more to come in the December quarter and March quarter, right? We don't know what the terminal rate is for sure yet, right? But as these rates go up, there is the continuation of the lead and lag effect goes through, right? And that is one. And 2, it is also about the deposit mix funding, right? We have the opportunity to increase our penetration in time deposits. You see the time deposit grew by 22%. And the objective of that time deposit mix is that we have a very low penetration, 14% to 15% of our customers is where we are penetrated on time deposits, and we think there is an enormous opportunity through the engagement process that in the past, we probably didn't meet and so the engagement was light and now we are enhancing our engagement to ensure that we are able to have the right kind of a dialogue with the customer on that. So it depends on the mix of the deposit product, and it's also a different from the lead and lag effect and how long the rate cycle goes, right? So then that is determined...

Abhishek Murarka

Analyst

Understood. So basically, what you're seeing is even with the same mix, you expect yields to be going up more and your deposit gathering strategy will not be entirely rate dependent. So to that extent, you should be able to gain on spread. Is that a correct understanding?

Srinivasan Vaidyanathan

Analyst

To the extent that we lease the rate and lag the lead the rate on the advances and lag the rate on deposits, that show see a pickup coming and that is what we will do, I will not know because it depends on market circumstances as we execute on the ground.

Abhishek Murarka

Analyst

Got it. Got it. My second question, Sri, is on HDB. When I look at the GNPAs there on a sequential basis, they're pretty flat. Can you just give some color on what's happening there in terms of asset quality? And also, what's the restructured book there? How much of it is in [ morat ] and any provisions you're carrying on that? So just some color on asset quality for HDB.

Srinivasan Vaidyanathan

Analyst

Okay. See, the HDB asset quality, I think I'd be a lot to say in terms of the improved delinquency of the stage 3 PE from 5 to 4.9% or something. So we are in the trajectory of this improvement, and we believe that is the projector continues, right, it should continue to be there. That's one thing. The second thing in terms of the provision coverage, right, on the NPA, the secured book production coverage is 5 to 6% the unsecured book provision coverage was 92%, right? And on the overall loan book itself, 75% of the total loan book is secured loan book. So this is quite a good type of book. And the customer segment is such a customer segment that got significantly impacted in the core, that's part of the NPA spike that you see. And as the economy is stabilizing and become stronger, you see that slight improvement but more to go with that.

Abhishek Murarka

Analyst

Okay. So in GNP also, is it 75% secured and 25 unsecured? Or that was for the full book?

Srinivasan Vaidyanathan

Analyst

That 75% secured is for the whole book for the GNPA, I don't have it in front of me, but I'm sure it at some point in time, will be publishing when they publish those see.

Abhishek Murarka

Analyst

Sure. And restructured book in HDB, how much would that be excess provisions, anything that you're carrying over there?

Srinivasan Vaidyanathan

Analyst

There is some management overlay like the way we do have and continues to be there, that restructured book on HDB I don't think they have published yet.

Abhishek Murarka

Analyst

Okay. Okay. No worries. Just a last question on this MTM loss. So we still have trading losses, whereas you explained or you alluded to corporate bonds and PTCs contributing to that. Can you sort of explain the reason for this? Mostly rates have gone up on the short end, and there you don't need to do any MTM on the T-bills, et cetera. So can you just explain this?

Srinivasan Vaidyanathan

Analyst

Okay. Good. See, if you look at the corporate bond book, it's not about fee book. It is about the corporate bond and the pass-through certificates, which are -- which are predominantly PSL driven or the qualified pass-through certificates, right, which are there. If you look at the rate, the base rate that determines the valuation of the bonds and PTCs are published by the FIMMDA various association that publishes the rate. The base rate is this technical -- the 6-month rate is up 77 basis points in the quarter, 1 year 67 basis points, 2 year, 42 basis points and so on. So that's the kind of the front-end part of the curve where the rates are up, the long-end part of the curve, if you look at the 10-year rates are down 9 basis points quarter-on-quarter, right? But these bonds and PTCs that we have, they are more on the front-end side, right? There are more. So if you look at the dispersion of the bond book, it's like a pretty good normal distribution around that 2-year type of range of bucket. That's where the normal distribution is there. That's one element. The G-Sec curve on the front end of the curve, that is one of the elements of that goes into valuation. So as a rate spike, you'll see the value coming down because, as you know, these are not economic link to market. The second aspect of it in the valuation is also the spread on spreads, right? And part of the evaluation process, the bond split has come down, right, which is -- you would imagine the bond spreads are down to some extent. And if you see the bond spreads, I think in the front end, also the bond is of down. If you see, for example, the NBFC AA spreads in the 6 months is down 6 basis points and 1 year down 21 basis points and 2 years down 11 basis points, right? It is down. Similarly, cost of AAA 1 year is 9 basis points down 2 years, 11 basis points down. So the bond price is another element of the valuation, they are also down. However, as you know, in the valuation, the bond spreads have slowed, right? They have flowed at 50 basis points. So until the bond spreads growth at that level and then starts to improve up or down, it is inconsequential on that front. So it is not driven by the G-Sec. And in this case, the position the portfolio is towards a normal distribution around that 2-year 1.5 2-year math. And so it depends on the rate that is changed in the contract.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from the line of Prashant Kumar from Sunidhi Securities.

Prashant Kumar

Analyst

My question is on credit card business. The public sector banks, Union Bank, CNB and Regional Bank has launched a card on EPC...

Operator

Operator

Sorry to interrupt to Mr. Kumar, but your voice is not clear. So it is breaking in between.

Prashant Kumar

Analyst

Hello. Is it audible?

Operator

Operator

Yes, please go ahead, sir.

Prashant Kumar

Analyst

So I mean, my question is the linkage of RuPay credit card on UPI. What will be the impact of credit card business on slightly on a pricing perspective, pricing for the like low-value PI on credit card or higher value transaction of -- MDR for UPI on credit card will be similar to other credit cards. I mean or it will be settled down to the incentive to given in the range of around 0.2% 2.4%. I mean you can give some color, sir.

Srinivasan Vaidyanathan

Analyst

Okay, sir. See, these are very early stages on that front. How the market sets will also wait and see what happens to that. And as far as we are concerned, we are predominant Visa MasterCard issuers on that front. And the RuPay cards are a small proportion of our card base. That's one. The second, the UPI, as it goes to UPI, -- what is the kind of how the UPI pricing itself settles and how it is going to impact. We have to wait and see where it goes, right? At this moment, it's not clear and the transaction sizes that come through these are also important. And but currently, that's what we have through MasterCard Visa, the transaction sizes, average transaction sizes are quite high and good for us.

Prashant Kumar

Analyst

Yes. And on the asset quality side, just on data keeping. So what is the slippages and what is the write-off and upgrade and recovery if you can give if it is handy?

Srinivasan Vaidyanathan

Analyst

Yes, I did provide that previously, but I can give that again to you. The slippages, I think the slippages in the quarter was -- the current quarter was about 36 basis points or INR 5,700 crores. The recoveries and upgrades about 19 basis points, INR 2,500 crores. The write-offs, about 22 basis points, INR 3,000 crores.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from the line of Saurabh from JPMorgan.

Saurabh Kumar

Analyst

Hi Just can you talk about the corporate banking fees, this 9% quarter-on-quarter growth. So where is it coming from? Are you displacing some public sector at banks in some of the large corporates? Or is it just reducing the risk filters on corporate side. And just sir, regards question on that will be, sir, I mean, the consequence of that build-up, should we -- NIMs could obviously come off. But at the ROA level, it should still be a 2% business? Or how do you think about it?

Srinivasan Vaidyanathan

Analyst

Yes. To ask let me address your ROA part of it. Yes, all our pricing decisions as well as the business which are dependent, the models dependent through what returns it provides, right? The models don't go through to say what limit it provides. So the models go to the same loss return it provides. And these are quite good relationship-based businesses in the wholesale -- and we had quite a good traction again during the largely contributed, I think, by the telecom sector in the quarter. There's some energy-related that came through. There are some PSUs also on this, right, very high quality, good PSUs we do we want to have. We already have the relationships, we have done that, yes. They are priced very well, and they are priced to get the returns that is in line with the bank's overall returns, the 2% that Span which you see, which we have published for the March report also, I think you've seen that wholesale or retail, our returns are quite good, and we continue to do business on those lines.

Saurabh Kumar

Analyst

Okay. And the second question...

Srinivasan Vaidyanathan

Analyst

Again, which I didn't mention, but I will think you have touched upon whether there is a price competition at yes, INR 30,000 to INR 30,000 crores of wholesale loans we have let go this quarter. because we have been -- you have seen our pricing, how we move on pricing right from May quite fast. And there are others who take their time or their own tempos to price to catch up. So the price is not good, we let go up the volumes. We let go of that particular transaction, not let go of the relationship of the customer because these are all good relationship business. So we keep the relationship. But if that particular transaction doesn't work, we are very clear that particular transaction does we have.

Saurabh Kumar

Analyst

Got it, sir. And sir, the second question is, there was an interview by Mr. Parag Rao, where you said after digital transformation is over and the IP costs will probably speak out. And we also mentioned that on the smart app is going to reach about 21 million merchants from approximately $3 million of pay -- so how should we think about this impacting your OpEx? Should we now hope that your OpEx at comparator we would choose to reinvest any gains you get on either your credit cost or your name on OpEx side. How should we think about that?

Srinivasan Vaidyanathan

Analyst

Okay. Again, you have 2 aspects to this. One aspect is in terms of the digitization itself in terms of -- but the context of that, I think, was the merchant Vyapar app that we formally launched. And I think I had mentioned that the merchant a Vyapar app took off earlier, had quite a good traction, right? We get in almost call it, per month, 1,000 merchants in the recent months. And we have more than 1.6 million signed up under this app, right? As a merchant, we have more than 3.5 million merchants, but 1.6 million under the smarter platform, which is the Vyapar app? That's part of what I think you alluded to. And that is where, in that context only, we said that we will go past the $20 million in terms of getting the merchant industry. Again, this is not just a payment product initiative, right? This is more of a both a liability relationship, asset relationship in addition to getting that payment relationship. That's what we do. And it helps there's a lot of value to those merchants to do business with us because there's a lot of value-added features that go with it. That's one part of what you asked. The second part of what you asked is what does it do to cost and so on. So I think in the past, we have said that our cost to income before COVID was about 39.5%. And through the COVID the retail kind of a transaction and the opportunity to do various things were lower, it came down all the way to 36, 37. Now it's past 39%. It's back to 39.5%. That's where the cost income. And I think we said it can go to 45% on quarter-to-quarter. Quarter-to-quarter is not our mission, but over a period of clear if you see 40% is not a place that you would imagine it can go to 40 as we make those investments to come because as we see the benign credit because the average credit cost that you see this quarter, 80, 90 basis points last quarter, 90, 95 basis points. So there is an opportunity to lean this and get that maturity cycle up, right, on maturity from a branch maturity cycle to people maturity, branch maturity cycle is 18, 24 months. People maturity cycle could be 6, 9 months. And so that's part of what the investments go to take this opportunity to invest it, and of course, within the overall return framework.

Saurabh Kumar

Analyst

That's right, sir. So this 20 million merchants is us, HDFC Bank, it doesn't include your fintech partnerships or does it include?

Srinivasan Vaidyanathan

Analyst

That is right. Is the bank relationship with the bank, yes.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from the line of Manish Shukla from Axis Capital.

Manish Shukla

Analyst

Sri, first question is, can you remind us what are some of the key dispensations or relaxations that you sought from RBI for the merger? And realistically, by when do you think you will start getting visibility on the same?

Srinivasan Vaidyanathan

Analyst

Manish, on this front, the same items, I think, that we talked upon on May 31 remains, right, which is -- is there a possibility on the CRR, SLR live part that will continue to focus on greater and faster credit growth, both in the economy and supported by us. It is something that we are in discussion, we told you. And the second thing is also in terms of the priority sector lending, which kicks in 12 months after the effective date. So in this case, for example, continue the same September kind of a time frame 23. -- thinking about December 24 kind of a time frame from when that will come. What part of report that can have for that, we could organically originate, right? So I think we have understood at 1.42 lakh villages, we have moved to now, right? We have less than 100,000 villages, if you go back 12, 15 months ago. come here and we are on track to go to that 200,000 villages to operate. So that is part of how we organically build this and certain other things that we told you in terms of opening up a little -- around the 3,000 mark now on the branches originating gold loan, and we wanted to do to around 5,000 branches. Again, part of that initiative to ensure that we get the right kind of quality on the priority sector lending. So there are -- these are the action plans that come as organic. But the kind of, call it a drive path is to get to that we organically do this. That's what -- and where are we on the state. We continue to have that conversation with the regulators.

Manish Shukla

Analyst

So by the time you seek shareholder approval towards end of November, are you expecting any visibility on any of these?

Srinivasan Vaidyanathan

Analyst

There is no particular time frame Manish for this, right? The bilateral conversations with the regulators are private. So there's no details about that, but at least that is something that there's no time frame.

Manish Shukla

Analyst

The other question is on the funding side.

Srinivasan Vaidyanathan

Analyst

And one thing that I do want to let which we mentioned that also, the merger is not predicated on this, right? So the model is not necessarily assume that we need to come. These are good, good to have, not necessary as such.

Manish Shukla

Analyst

Sure, sure, sir. That's clear. Moving on to liabilities. Now once you acquire a large mortgage book from HDFC Limited, potentially, you can fund it using long-term affordable housing bonds. So what are your thoughts around the same? How many of those bonds you think you can issue? And does that mean that in the interim, your LDR as a merged entity could be higher than what historically we've seen for HDFC Bank standard work?

Srinivasan Vaidyanathan

Analyst

Certainly, that is part of the equation, and we wouldn't use those opportunities to get that. Because from a cost point of view, we'll be indifferent to that, right? Because we know that the assets on the other side are sorting rate assets price of the market benchmark. And there are hedging instruments in the market to ensure that the interest rate risk is managed. But at the same time, the liquidity maturity is also managed through these affordable bonds. And these affordable bonds do provide, as you know, offset, offset means relief from a subject to certain qualifying criteria, they are also further opportunities to take off the ANBC and thereby, when they reduce the PSL. Surely, that's are clear. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this was the last question for today. I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Vaidyanathan for closing comments.

Srinivasan Vaidyanathan

Analyst

Thank you, Rituja. Thank you participants for coming in today joining us. It was our pleasure. If you still have open questions for any other things to interact. We are open at any time we can to. Thank you. Bye-bye.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. On behalf of HDFC Limited, that concludes this conference call. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines.