Brian Coleman
Analyst · Craig-Hallum. Please proceed
So back to the first part of your question, the current pricing dynamic. We had always expected prices to be higher around this time in connection with the overall implementation of the AIM Act. However, the counterbalance to that had been what type of stockpile might have come in, particularly in the 2021 year. Unfortunately, initially, let's say, back in 2022, that data wasn't available. But more recently and it's public to everyone, the EPA has published under something called the Data Hub that in the 2021 year, it looks like we had imported and made available about 1.5x the annual cap. So that, if you will, in that year, there's an extra half a year that we would consider as stockpile. Furthermore, the EPA has provided the December 31, 2022 inventory data. Now the total number looks like it's about 129% of the cap. And may, therefore, mean that some amount of stockpile has been sold out in that 2022 year, although we don't know for certain. So we definitely believe right now, and how long it may occur in this 2024 selling season, is the pricing is being affected probably because of the stockpile more than anything else. We obviously are going to begin to see warmer weather. Warmer weather without a doubt creates further demand and so forth. So that's the first part. The second part to your question, we're not saying that 2025, we're not going to get back to the targeted gross margins. What we just are simply saying for the moment that we're taking down that 2025 target that we established. We still believe we're going to get back to the longer-term targets of the gross margin of 35%. But for the current year and the current year only, we provided guidance relative to the full-year that basically is freezing pricing at, let's say, this $8 a pound HFCs that we're currently seeing today and running that through the balance of the year. So what we're trying to present is if pricing for this year maintains exactly the way it is at this moment in time, these are the range of outcomes. And the gross margin for this year would be below the target. But as we get through the rest of this year, and let's say we're into around September, we'll certainly know where pricing is for the year and pricing maybe higher. But more importantly, we'll also understand what the final Refrigerant Management rule is, and that will then allow us to provide more long-term guidance and likely return to that more long-term gross margin target of 35%.