Christopher John Swift
Analyst · Evercore Partners
Thank you, Liam. Good morning, everyone. I'll begin on Slide 5. First quarter core earnings were $612 million or $1.25 per diluted share, representing an 11% improvement over prior year. Excluding the $192 million DAC unlock, core earnings were $420 million or $0.86 per diluted share, so it's a 7% increase compared to prior year. These results were largely in line with the estimate we provided on March 21, except for catastrophes. Cats were running about $20 million favorable to budget through mid-March. But with the late March storm activity, total cats ended the quarter at $46 million after tax, in line with our budget. Prior-year development was slightly favorable at $19 million after tax, with releases in personal lines offset by some modest development in P&C Commercial. The investment portfolio yield was stable this quarter at 4.2%, excluding partnerships. We are modestly increasing allocations to higher-yield assets and purchasing longer-duration bonds. Returns on alternatives and limited partnerships were 8%, and we continue to expect an annualized return of 9% for 2012. Impairments and changes to the mortgage loan loss reserve remained low at $28 million pretax in the quarter. Slide 6 shows book value per diluted common share on a restated basis for the new DAC accounting standard. At the end of the first quarter, book value per diluted share was $43.25, an increase of 12% over last year. Excluding AOCI, book value per diluted share rose by 1% to $40.55. Let's turn to our business results by segment. Slide 7 shows the summary results for P&C Commercial. Core earnings were $162 million, a decline of 8% from prior year. Results included $13 million, after tax, of prior-year net reserve strengthening across multiple lines. Importantly, there were no meaningful reserve adjustments related to our workers' compensation loss experience. The combined ratio, x cat, x prior year, was 96.4%. We expect this to improve as written price increases earn in over the remainder of 2012. We continue to see strong price momentum in P&C Commercial. In the first quarter, we achieved renewal price increases of 7%, the highest level since the fourth quarter of 2003. We're especially pleased with renewal price trends in Middle Market workers' compensation, where first quarter price increases were up 14%. Policy count retention remained strong at 83% for standard commercial. This metric is clearly influenced by the large number of Small Commercial policies. If you look at retention on a premium weighted basis, over the past year, Small Commercial retention has been flat, while Middle Market retention has declined. This retention decline has been more than offset by improved pricing. We are very pleased with this trade-off as this will lead to continued margin expansion and ROE improvement. Shifting to Group Benefits, core earnings of $5 million remain well below our expectations. The loss ratio of 83% reflected elevated disability incidence and the lack of improvement in termination trends. We're addressing these disappointing results in 2 ways. First, we continue to take rate actions on accounts that are not meeting profitability targets. As Liam mentioned, it will take some time to get the profitability of the book to targeted levels, given the multiyear nature of the rate guarantees. Given our rate actions and the very competitive marketplace, persistency declined in the first quarter -- on first quarter renewals to 66% from 72% in the prior year. Ongoing sales are down 7%, primarily driven by a 21% decline in group disability sales. Group life sales increased 5% from the prior year. Second, we are reviewing all operational processes to identify ways to improve profitability. We recently appointed a new leader for this segment, Mike Concannon. Mike's property and casualty background brings a fresh perspective for potential improvement opportunities in many operational areas, like underwriting, pricing and claims management. Turning to Slide 9, Consumer Markets reported first quarter core earnings of $102 million, down $9 million from prior year. Andy Napoli and his team are successfully executing on the strategy for this business. The combined ratio and retention improved, and new business production was strong. First quarter combined ratio, excluding cats and prior-year development, was 88.8%, a slight improvement from last year's 89.0%. We continue to manage our rate increases appropriately, with a 6% renewal written price increase in homeowners and 4% in auto. Like the rest of the personal lines industry, our homeowners book requires additional rate and underwriting actions to respond to recent weather trends. Overall retention was up 2 points to 84% in auto and 85% in homeowners. While we are pleased with the improvement, we still need another point or 2 in order to reach our targeted levels. New business written premium was up 30% in auto and 32% in home. After declining in the first half of 2011, new business premiums are now back to historic levels. Most of the new business growth is coming from our more profitable channels. For example, written premiums in AARP Agency almost doubled to $27 million from the prior year. We provided additional granularity in our financial supplement on written and earned and premiums by channel, so you can track our progress. We're encouraged by these positive results. With improving margins, Consumer Markets is now poised to profitably grow while also improving their ROEs. Wealth Management results are summarized in Slide 10. First quarter core earnings, x DAC unlock, were $154 million, 15% lower than prior year. This decrease was largely due to a 7% decline in assets under management primarily from net outflows in Individual Annuities. Individual Annuity core earnings, x DAC unlock, were $96 million, down 11% from prior year. This segment will be reported in the Runoff division next quarter. The first quarter annualized lapse rate for the U.S. in-force VA block was about 14%, in line with our expectations. Since our announcement to exit the Individual Annuity businesses, lapses have increased approximately 20% in the U.S. and 4% in Japan. It's too soon to judge whether lapses will remain at these levels, but if they do, it will accelerate the runoff of the VA book. Core earnings in Individual Life, x DAC unlock, were $34 million, a decline of $4 million from prior year due to lower alternative investment returns, as well as slightly higher expenses. Individual Life sales were up 13% over prior year and increased across all key distribution channels. In the individual Retirement Plans, core earnings were $4 million, down $5 million from the prior year. Spread compression on the general account products continues to weigh on results. Assets under management had a record $57.2 billion, aided by rising equity markets and positive net flows. As a result of our planned sales, we have evaluated the goodwill balances for Individual Life and Retirement Plans in the first quarter. No impairment is necessary at this time. However, we will continue to monitor its recoverability. Moving to Mutual Funds, core earnings were $20 million, down $7 million from prior year due to lower assets under management. First quarter fund performance improved, particularly in our largest fund, Capital Appreciation Fund. Overall, more than 80% of the funds outperformed their benchmarks. This strong quarterly performance contributed to an increase in non-proprietary fund deposits of 18% on a sequential basis. The results of our Runoff division are on Slide 11. Core earnings, x DAC unlock, were $105 million, basically in line with prior year. As Liam discussed, we have a number of initiatives underway to shrink the size and risk of this book. This will allow us to redeploy the capital allocated to this business over time. As you know, rising equity markets, higher interest rates and a weakening yen are all positives for our in-force VA book. The economic value of the VA book is greatly improved as a result of these market conditions. During the quarter, the net amount at risk related to our VA book declined substantially. For example, the NAR related to the U.S. and Japan GMDB business improved $5.3 billion during the quarter. This improvement isn't always evident in our GAAP and statutory accounting results, given the mismatch between the carrying value of the hedge assets and the VA reserves. As you can see on Slide 12, that on a GAAP basis, the net change in VA reserves and hedge assets generated a loss of approximately $1.1 billion, which reflects the asymmetrical accounting for our U.S. GMDB and Japan guarantees. On a statutory basis, the decline in the value of the hedge assets exceeded the change in the value of the U.S. VACARVM reserves by $183 million. It's important to note that our hedge program continues to work as designed. Its primary focus is economic risk, not GAAP accounting results. As the markets change, we will adjust our targets in order to maintain appropriate hedging levels. On Slide 13 is our statutory surplus roll-forward. U.S. statutory surplus increased approximately $600 million in the first quarter before dividends. Consistent with our practice, a $200 million dividend was declared from the P&C to the holding company in order to cover interest, dividends and other expenses. The P&C operations generated more than $300 million of statutory operating income and almost $200 million of other positive surplus impacts, including investment-related gains. Life statutory operating income, excluding VA, turned positive this quarter and was approximately $100 million. This was largely offset by the VA hedge-related impacts I mentioned earlier. In total, the Life operations ended the quarter with a modest increase in statutory surplus. As you can see on Slide 14, we ended the quarter with $17.9 billion of capital resources. Holding company resources declined almost $100 million in the quarter, reflecting dividends, interests and share repurchase activity. We expect holding company resources to decline modestly in the second quarter due to this element of the warrant repurchase. Turning to Slide 15, we were very pleased to complete the Allianz transactions, which were a major step in restructuring the balance sheet and enhancing our financial flexibility. On April 17, we repaid $1.75 billion par value of Allianz junior subordinated debt with the proceeds from the issuance of $1.55 billion of senior notes and $600 million of new junior subordinated debt. This new debt has a blended interest rate of approximately 6% versus the 10% coupon on the Allianz debt. This reduces annual interest paid by $45 million on a pretax basis. As a result, our statutory dividend coverage ratio is improved by almost 0.5 point to 4x. In the second quarter, we will take an after-tax charge to net income of approximately $600 million to reflect the premium paid to retire the debt and to write off the related unamortized discount and debt costs. We also purchased all the outstanding Allianz warrants for $300 million. This transaction reduced first quarter book value by $0.61 per diluted share. In addition, early in the first quarter, we purchased 2.6 million shares of common stock. To date, we have completed $394 million of the $500 million equity repurchase authorization. We intend to complete the remaining $106 million on a timely basis, taking into consideration market conditions and trading restrictions. Turning to Slide 16, I wanted to conclude with our outlook for the second quarter. We expect second quarter run rate core earnings to be in a similar range to the first quarter, absent higher loss cost seasonality. In the second quarter, we expect higher cats with a budget of $84 million after tax, which is $0.08 per diluted share, higher than the first quarter, which brings our total estimate to $0.70 to $0.75 per diluted share. This estimate does not include DAC unlocks, prior-year reserve development, restructuring charges related to the Wealth Management division. These restructuring charges, which include retention awards and other expenses, may be up to $20 million or about $0.04 per share. Our businesses this quarter performed largely in line with our expectations, with the exception of Group Benefits. We currently expect full year earnings for Group Benefits to be essentially flat with 2011. We expect pricing momentum in the P&C businesses will expand margins in the second half of 2012. Our earnings outlook for Individual Life and Retirement Plans businesses hasn't changed, although we expect sales to be down as a result of our recent announcements. Looking forward, the ongoing businesses are executing under 2012 initiatives to grow and increase margins. We look forward to sharing progress with you, and we will provide more information about the P&C, Group Benefits and Mutual Fund operations in the quarters to come. In addition, we'll keep you updated on the other operational and strategic actions we may take within our Runoff division. The strength and momentum in our ongoing businesses, combined with the actions we are taking to be a more focused company, will improve the earnings and the ROE profile of The Hartford over time. At this point, I'd like to turn the call over to Sabra to begin the Q&A session.