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Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT)

Q3 2021 Earnings Call· Wed, Oct 27, 2021

$323.99

-2.50%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to the Hilton Third Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Jill Slattery, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations and Corporate Development. You may begin.

Jill Slattery

Analyst

Thank you, Chad. Welcome to Hilton's Third Quarter 2021 Earnings Call. Before we begin, we would like to remind you that our discussions this morning will include forward-looking statements. Actual results could differ materially from those indicated in the forward-looking statements, and forward-looking statements made today speak only to our expectations as of today. We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise these statements. For a discussion of some of the factors that could cause actual results to differ, please see the Risk Factors section of our most recently filed Form 10-K. In addition, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures on this call. You can find reconciliations of non-GAAP to GAAP financial measures discussed in today's call in our earnings press release and on our website at ir.hilton.com. This morning, Chris Nassetta, our President and Chief Executive Officer, will provide an overview of the current operating environment. Kevin Jacobs, our Chief Financial Officer and President, Global Development, will then review our third quarter results. Following their remarks, we'll be happy to take your questions. With that, I'm pleased to turn the call over to Chris.

Christopher Nassetta

Analyst

Thank you, Jill. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us today. We are pleased to report another quarter of very solid results that demonstrate continued recovery and the resiliency of our business model. Increases in vaccination rates and consumer spending, coupled with improving business activity, continued to drive solid travel demand throughout the summer and into the fall. As global borders reopen and the travel environment recovers, we remain extremely encouraged by people's desire to travel and connect more than ever before. In the third quarter, system-wide RevPAR grew 99% year-over-year. Compared to 2019, RevPAR was down roughly 19%, improving 17 percentage points versus the second quarter, with system-wide rates down just 2.5% versus 2019. Adjusted EBITDA totaled approximately $519 million, up 132% year-over-year and down 14% versus 2019. Performance was primarily driven by strong leisure trends with leisure room nights roughly in line with 2019 level, with leisure rates exceeding 2019 levels. Business travel continued to gain momentum with midweek occupancy and rates improving meaningfully versus the second quarter. In the quarter, business transient room nights were roughly 75% of prior peak levels. Group continued to lag but showed significant sequential improvement versus the second quarter, boosted by strength in social events. For the quarter, group RevPAR was approximately 60% of 2019 levels, improving 21 percentage points from the second quarter. Overall system-wide RevPAR versus 2019 peaked in July at 85% with rates just shy of prior peaks. As expected, recovery slowed modestly later in the quarter due to typical seasonality and customer mix shift, but overall trends remained solid. Both August and September RevPAR achieved roughly 80% of 2019 levels, driven by continued strength in leisure and upticks in business travel post-Labor Day as offices and schools reopen. These trends improved modestly into October with month-to-date RevPAR…

Kevin Jacobs

Analyst

Thanks, Chris, and good morning, everyone. During the quarter, system-wide RevPAR grew 98.7% versus the prior year on a comparable and currency-neutral basis as the recovery continued to accelerate, driven by strong leisure demand, particularly in the U.S. and across Europe. Performance was driven by both occupancy and rate growth. As Chris mentioned, system-wide RevPAR was down 18.8% compared to 2019. Adjusted EBITDA was $519 million in the third quarter, up 132% year-over-year. Results reflect the broader recovery in travel demand. Management and franchise fees grew 93%, driven by strong RevPAR improvement and Honors license fees. Additionally, results were helped by continued cost control at both the corporate and property levels. Our ownership portfolio performed better than expected in the third quarter, driven by the accelerating recovery in Europe, the Tokyo Olympics and ongoing cost controls. For the quarter, diluted earnings per share, adjusted for special items, was $0.78. Turning to our regional performance. Third quarter comparable U.S. RevPAR grew 105% year-over-year and was down 14% versus 2019. Robust leisure demand and improving business transient trends drove strong performance in July. Trends modestly slowed later in the quarter due to seasonality. U.S. occupancy averaged nearly 70% for the quarter with overall rate largely in line with 2019 levels. In the Americas outside the U.S., third quarter RevPAR increased 168% year-over-year and was down 30% versus 2019. The region benefited from easing travel restrictions and strong leisure demand over the summer period. Canada also saw a noticeable step-up in demand in August after reopening their borders to vaccinated Americans. In Europe, RevPAR grew 142% year-over-year and was down 35% versus 2019. Travel demand accelerated across the region in the third quarter as vaccination rates increased and international travel restrictions loosened. In the Middle East and Africa region, RevPAR increased 110% year-over-year…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And the first question will come from Carlo Santarelli with Deutsche Bank.

Carlo Santarelli

Analyst

Chris, you gave a lot of color, as did you, Kevin, in your prepared remarks. But one thing I just wanted to kind of ask around was how you guys are seeing or believe the cadence of business transient travel will play out here in the fourth quarter and how kind of -- or how you're thinking about the sequencing through 2022?

Christopher Nassetta

Analyst

Yes. I mean great question, Carlo, and obviously one everybody is interested in. So maybe I'll talk about all the segments a little bit because it's hard to do one without the others. So as you know, to grossly oversimplify, which you know I like to do occasionally, the way I would see it is, as we have been seeing through the third quarter and what I think we'll see in the fourth quarter is a continued uptick in business transient travel, I think that will come from all segments of business strange. But again, probably continue to be led this -- in this year in the fourth quarter by small and medium SME, small and medium enterprises. I don't think you'll see a huge pickup, but I think you'll see a modest pickup. At the same time, just because people are increasingly back in offices and kids are definitely, mostly, if not entirely, back in school, I think you'll see a little bit of a tick-down in leisure business. Now the weekends will continue to rage, I think. The weekends have been extraordinary, but the midweek leisure travel will continue to tick down. And I think those 2 will largely offset each other in the fourth quarter. I think group will remain pretty consistent. Obviously, we had a big uptick in the summer, and then Delta variant sort of slid out the momentum a little bit on group. People think -- there's advanced planning. People have to spend money. And so while there's plenty of group occurring, it's really largely sports and social. At this point, I think that continues about -- like what we've seen in the third quarter into the fourth because people are -- all the pent-up demand is there, but people are sort of advanced…

Operator

Operator

And the next question comes from Joe Greff from JPMorgan.

Joseph Greff

Analyst

You guys were -- had some interesting comments on the development side, and obviously positive there. Chris, when do you think hotel construction starts to trough? When do you think new signings peak or have they?

Christopher Nassetta

Analyst

Yes. Another we've spent a lot of time looking at that through the last couple of quarters and very recently. Here's what I'd say. I gave you a sense, so I won't repeat what both Kevin and I said about NUG. Kevin, we both talked about it this year. I gave you a sense in our prepared comments that we think we'll be in the mid-single-digits for the next couple of years. Obviously, that requires a lot of work. It requires signing deals, starting construction that then ultimately it lands in our NUG numbers. I think when you look back 2 years from now at this period of time, I am of the mind and reasonably confident that what you will see is the trough in deal signings was last year. As Kevin mentioned, we're going to be up in the mid- to high single-digits in signings this year, we think. I mean we're not done with the year. We always have a good flurry of activity at the end, but we got a lot of it on the books, and so we're pretty damn confident we're going to be up nicely. And I don't see why next year, given what's going on in the environment in terms of -- particularly operating recovery, pricing power, which I'm sure we'll come to, I'll do it maybe in another question, that we're going to see more deals signed next year. So I think last year was probably, in my mind, the trough for signings. I think this year, for those same exact reasons, will be the trough in construction starts. Starts always will lag the signings a little bit. We're definitely going to be a little bit modestly down in signings this year after being down last year. Our expectation is that…

Operator

Operator

The next question will be from Shaun Kelley from Bank of America.

Shaun Kelley

Analyst

Chris, I think there were a couple of fat pitches there on the pricing environment, so maybe I'll behave, if you could. But I guess my twist would be could you give us a little color specifically on the business pricing side? I think we all see that the leisure rates are exceptional. And so maybe your thoughts on how long leisure can continue pricing like it is, your thoughts on the recovery of business pricing. And then any headwind from large corporates? You've done a great job of delineating small and large, so how much of a headwind is large corporate? Does that price any differently? Is that a factor at all?

Christopher Nassetta

Analyst

Yes. A great question. Yes, I did sort of serve that up. So I guess I shouldn't be surprised I'm getting asked. Listen, you embedded in the question is part of the answer. But obviously, we feel -- first of all, let me not be pedantic but say what I say a lot when I'm asked this question. The laws of economics are alive and well, right? And that's what's going on. Why is leisure so strong in rate? Why are we able to price above historically high levels? Because there are crazy amounts of demand. Like our weekend demand is off the chart. We're running 85% to 90% system-wide in the U.S. on the weekends, and we're pricing over '19 levels, obviously, because we have a lot of demand. I do think that will -- that leisure pricing power will continue because, what I said before, I believe that leisure demand is going to remain at elevated levels, particularly on the weekends, and that that's going to give us nice pricing power. Even though, obviously, the recovery in business transient has lagged, as I said in the quarter, we were 75%, but it's sort of a tale of 2 cities, which is I implied it a little bit. You have -- the big corporates which are still 40% off, but then you have small and medium which are only maybe 10%. You could even argue maybe 5% or 10% off. And so we have a fair amount of pricing power in the biggest piece -- in the biggest segments, and they are less price sensitive. So broadly, your biggest -- it's not everybody. Your biggest corporate customers can end up with sort of off bar, 10% or 20%. Small and medium might end up at 5% or 7%. So…

Operator

Operator

The next question will be from Thomas Allen from Morgan Stanley.

Thomas Allen

Analyst

So a strategic question. You talked in your prepared remarks about starting to open franchising for Hilton Garden Inn in China. I know that was an interesting change because with Hampton Inn, you did a master franchise agreement. Can you just talk about the rationale?

Christopher Nassetta

Analyst

Yes. It's very straightforward. We've done 2. The one you mentioned with Plateno was the Hampton Inn. And then more recently, I mentioned in my comments, we just actually opened our first Home2 Suites by Hilton in China on the road to doing 1,000 of them with Country Garden, one of the largest players in China, which is another master license agreement. So we've done those 2. Never say never. I'm not saying -- but the idea was to really help -- get help from very large local players that knew how to garner scale very quickly to help build our network effect in China and then ultimately come back in with our other brands and do it ourselves. And so that's exactly what we're doing with Hilton Garden Inn. We obviously have a massive franchise system here in the United States and frankly in Europe now, where the bulk of the business here is franchised. Increasingly, I think we're now -- the majority of the business in Europe is franchised. It's been a much smaller part of the business in China and in Asia Pacific, so we historically haven't had the same level of resources. And so what we've done during COVID is made some strategic investments to build out more infrastructure so that we can take other brands in our -- of our 18 brand -- a family of brands and do it ourselves. And so we're trying to be very sort of balanced and balance all the risks associated with our expansion around the world, and we think it's great to work with third parties. We love the Country Garden folks and Plateno. They've been incredibly important partners, will continue to be for a long, long time. But it's also important that we have that skill set ourselves in franchising. Is it -- while it's similar in China, it's not exactly the same. And so we've learned a lot and I think built a -- we're building a good infrastructure and a good muscle set to be able to take a bunch of other brands and do just what we've done here in the U.S., Europe and other places.

Thomas Allen

Analyst

And sorry, just a follow-up to this question. Any updated thinking on the potential TAM for these select service brands in China?

Christopher Nassetta

Analyst

I didn't hear the question.

Thomas Allen

Analyst

How many of these hotels do you think you can open in China? What's the addressable market?

Christopher Nassetta

Analyst

TAM. Okay, you're going tech on me. I love that. I love that. We do look at TAM. I mean I'm not going to give you there. It's thousands, right? Think of it in the following way. We have limited service hotels in the U.S., probably 4,500. We have a population of 320 million people. You have 1.3 billion people there, so there's no limit in my lifetime at least, probably not, you're younger than me, but I'm not that old, so probably not in your lifetime either. Thousands and thousands. You could easily have 10,000 or 20,000 or more, so I think there's growth opportunities in the mid-market as far as the eye can see in China. So while we have done some TAM work in China every time we come back and look at the numbers, they're just -- they're off the charts. There are no rational limitations given what our footprint is, what the population is and the growth in their middle class.

Operator

Operator

Next question will be from Smedes Rose from Citi.

Bennett Rose

Analyst

Chris, I was just wondering if you could talk a little bit about what your owners are telling you about labor costs in the U.S. Kind of how they're handling restaffing and maybe just the sort of idea of slim down the operating models versus trying to get back to...

Christopher Nassetta

Analyst

Yes. Smedes, I had a hard time hearing some of that, but I think I captured it, the labor costs and what owners are telling us. It's obviously been a big issue and one that we spent a lot of time on, a complex issue in terms of what's sort of underneath the problem. What I would say is, obviously, there is no one owner group. The different owners in different parts of the country and the world, for that matter, have different views. But if I sort of homogenize it all, which is hard to do, but if I do it in my head, I would say while it's still a very difficult issue, we've started to see easing in terms of access to labor. I think we have ways to go. There are a bunch of things we're doing to help from a technology point of view to access pools of labor that maybe we hadn't accessed historically. But broadly, more labor is coming back in, and some of those pressures are easing. Obviously, labor is more expensive pretty much everywhere. I think that's a reality. Where it settles out, I think it's a little early to know, but I think it is sort of settling down as people are gradually coming back into the workforce. I think the end of the question, which is a really important one, which I sort of touched on earlier in one of my other filibusters, was how is it going to look for owners on the other side? And again, it's hard -- some owners -- depends on location, product, 1,000 factors. But broadly -- and we're already seeing it. I think I said this. Broadly, I think when we get to the other side of this, across the system, margins…

Operator

Operator

And the next question will be from Stephen Grambling with Goldman Sachs.

Bennett Rose

Analyst

This is a bit of a multi-parter, but you mentioned that the majority of the pipeline is outside the U.S. Can you just remind us of what that split maybe looks like within some of the major markets? How the contribution from international room growth could compare and contrast to the U.S. as we translate NUG to fees? And then if you could just talk to any kind of incremental signing opportunities that you're seeing that surfaced in new markets as a result of the pandemic that could be longer lasting.

Kevin Jacobs

Analyst

Yes, Stephen. It's Kevin. I'll sort of try to take those in order. I think that the mix of rooms under construction is just over -- so kind of between 60% and 65% outside the U.S. versus inside the U.S. I think in terms of -- look, we're always trying to enter new markets. I think we have 20 something -- 25 to 30 new countries embedded in the pipeline that we don't have today, right? So we're always trying to enter new markets. I'm not sure really anything of that -- any of that has been opened up by the pandemic. I think it's just sort of the course of the growth of our business over time. And then trajectory really has a lot to do with how places are coming out of the pandemic, meaning we've been -- even though there's been spikes up and down in RevPAR in China, for instance, as they go into lockdowns, the development trajectory there has actually continued to be pretty solid and continued to improve. But in places like Europe where, traditionally, it's more of a face-to-face development environment, the less people have been able -- the less our teams and the owners have been able to get on planes and move around country to country, those signings have lagged a little bit. So I actually see that as a tailwind coming out of the pandemic, whereas there's a lot of pent-up demand for development in EMEA broadly. And I think that it's just going to require a little bit more mobility to surface that. But the rest of it is just, over time, as Chris has talked about this, as you have a rapidly developing middle class with more demand for mid-market products, you're going to see a little bit more of that demand over time. I mean the full-service business is not dead by any means. But you're just going to see, on the margin, the capital flows more to the limited-service hotels. So we're going to do more deals where the capital flows. And then as we bring franchising, which has been very successful for us -- Chris went through it, so I won't go through it again. But as we bring franchising to different parts of the world, particularly Asia Pacific, we're just going to do more franchise deals over time. You're not going to see, I don't think, big step changes. You're just going to see a gradual growth over time in more limited-service mix and more franchise mix. Did that cover all the parts?

Stephen Grambling

Analyst

One very quick follow-up. So from a net unit growth standpoint then, I guess, the fees that you're getting from the international market maybe ends up being a little bit lower because of the RevPAR. But on the flip side, it sounds like you're doing more direct, so there's a potential for that to actually improve within that mix. Is that true?

Kevin Jacobs

Analyst

Well, yes. Mathematically, right, the lower price points, it will blend in over time. Again, it will not change dramatically. We've modeled it every which way, and it's really hard to make that per room number move. But mathematically, it has to move over time. And the reality is, look, it's very high margin. It's 100% margin. Once we have scale in these parts of the world, it's a 100% margin and infinite yield. And so we'll take it.

Operator

Operator

The next question will be from Robin Farley with UBS.

Robin Farley

Analyst

Great. A lot of my questions have been asked already. One, just to circle back, and I hope I didn't miss this in the opening comment. I -- the operator pulled me out of the call for a minute. But when you talked about group and the expectation that there'll be a lot of pent-up volume for '22, can you give us a sense of where -- and I think that is a reasonable expectation but kind of where the group on the books for next year is versus '19. Like in other words, it's likely to be higher or maybe not in Q1, but kind of how that's pacing with what you have on the books for group for '22. And I don't know if you have it by quarter or first half, second half.

Christopher Nassetta

Analyst

Yes. I mean it would be weighted to Qs 2 through 4, first of all, for the reasons I covered in a prior answer. Just meaning people want to get through the winter, one. Two, the first quarter is never a big group quarter. So you put those 2 things together, and it trends heavily to Qs 2, 3 and 4. We're in the 75%, 80% on the books, which is about consistent with where we were in the last quarter. And what happened is, I think if you hadn't had the Delta variant spike, we'd probably be somewhat further along. But you had the Delta variant sort of slow -- they cooled off the advanced bookings on the group side, which have now picked back up. The other thing going on, of course, is we want to -- we do believe there's going to be a lot of group potential, particularly in Qs 2, 3 and 4. And we don't want to commit. There's a level of -- lack of desire on our part to commit too much space when we know that there'll be a lot of pricing power, so it's sort of a bit of a delicate balancing act.

Operator

Operator

And the next question will be from Richard Clarke from Bernstein.

Richard Clarke

Analyst

I just noticed on your cost reimbursement revenue has exceeded your -- the cost reimbursement expense for the first time really since the pandemic began. And you've lost obviously -- non-underlying, but you've lost about sort of $500 million through that Delta as the pandemic has gone on. Is this the beginning potentially of you being able to claw that back? And could this be a sort of boost to cash flow over the next few quarters?

Kevin Jacobs

Analyst

Yes, Richard. It's -- I wouldn't necessarily describe it as a clawback. I think what happened early in the pandemic is you had sort of -- rough numbers, you had revenue go down kind of 85% to 90% overnight. And we did a really good job of taking the expenses down, but we can only take expenses down, call it, 60% or 65%. So we basically were funding from our balance sheet the -- all the commercial engines and the websites and all the funded part of the business. And so those things really are giant co-ops. They're going to break even over time. So now what you're seeing is revenues -- and by the way, all the fees, all the sources of funds for those programs are funded as a percentage of revenue. So as revenue is climbing, our receipts are going up. And we will ultimately bring those funds back to breakeven, and we will recover those deficits. And at the moment, you're seeing it as surpluses. But I wouldn't necessarily think of it as clawbacks. Those funds run surpluses and deficits from time to time. So I think you'll see it run a surplus for a little while. And yes, the cash is commingled. But it's our owner's money at the end of the day, and we spend it all on them.

Operator

Operator

Next question will be from Bill Crow from Raymond James.

William Crow

Analyst

Chris, I hope you don't mind. I'm going to challenge you a little bit on the leisure outlook for 2022. And I'm just wondering how much risk there really is when we think about the combination of the return to office, the absence of government checks, much higher costs from inflation for the consumer and probably a pretty considerable pent-up outbound international demand. So I'm thinking about your comments on rate and leisure and weekday leisure in particular. Are we at risk kind of setting ourselves up for disappointment next year?

Christopher Nassetta

Analyst

I don't think so. You heard my views, so you can -- we can have a debate about it, but I don't think so for the following reason. I think the midweek is already being bled out now, so I don't -- I think most people -- most kids are back in school. It's in truncate's mobility even if people are in the office, so while more offices are going to open through the rest of this year and into next year. What we've seen in the pattern of leisure during the midweek, it's our -- we've sort of washed out a large part of that already. I may be wrong, but I believe the weekends are going to remain strong, simply because I still think, if you look at the $3 trillion of incremental savings during COVID, there's a long way to go to spend it all. And I think people still want to do -- they want the experiences that they were starved for, and now it gets concentrated more on weekends, which is what we're seeing now. I believe that will continue. I don't -- so the net of it is, my view, just to be clear, is that relative to a normalized like '19 level of leisure demand, I think we're getting back more towards that with a little bit better because I think the weekends are going to be a little bit better. I'm not -- I agree with you. I don't think that the midweek leisure is going to be raging, and that's not sort of built into my expectations. In terms of outbound, yes, the world is opening up. But then there's inbound, too. Particularly for the cities that -- the big cities, top 25 markets that historically depend on 20% of their…

William Crow

Analyst

Great. And Chris, can I give you the opportunity to maybe update us on the timing for potential capital returns and buybacks?

Christopher Nassetta

Analyst

Yes. We don't have anything new. But to repeat what I said last time, we are very interested in getting back to returning capital. We firmly believe in our capital allocation strategy pre-COVID, which was we were producing a lot of free cash flow that we didn't -- we can continue to grow the business in an industry-leading way without the use of much of it. And we wanted, as a result, to give it back to our shareholders because there was no reason for us to hoard it or do dumb things with it. And disciplined capital allocation, we believe, is a hallmark of long term, delivering great returns for shareholders. Our -- my belief hasn't been changed through COVID. The only thing that changed is we didn't have a lot of free cash flow during the heat of the crisis. We are obviously getting past that. We are cash flow positive. We want to just give it a little bit more time, as I said on the last call, sort of finish out the year. And if things go as we expect and consistent with what we have been seeing, we're going to reinstate a return of capital program in the first half of next year. And my guess is it will look quite similar. I mean, we're still having that discussion with our Board who obviously has a say in it. But I think if I had to pick a line, I think it will look a lot like what we were doing pre-COVID. And we're very focused on it and very anxious to get back to it. And so I direct you, I would say first half of next year.

Operator

Operator

The next question will be from Patrick Scholes with Truist Securities.

Charles Scholes

Analyst

A question on labor costs and specifically Hilton Corporation's labor costs. Any change in your expectations for G&A and trajectory of your G&A versus what you said in the past? And correct me if I'm wrong, I have in my notes here. You've talked about sensitivity of EBITDA to RevPAR, EBITDA growth about 1.3x RevPAR growth. Is that still your thoughts on that trajectory?

Kevin Jacobs

Analyst

Yes. I think what we said, Patrick, is that in the context of when RevPAR levels are elevated, the RevPAR growth is elevated the way it is, it will be in that zone. I think it should be -- obviously 90% of the business is from fees, that should be about 1:1 as things normalize. We think we can do a little bit better with net unit growth, cost discipline, license fees, things like that, maybe a little bit better than 1:1 over time. But I think the 1.3x is more of when RevPAR is elevated. And then no change -- short answer is no change in our views on G&A, right? We've been very disciplined. I think we -- what we've said to you guys is that cash G&A ought to be down this year in the mid- to high teens from 2019 levels. We actually might do a little bit better than that this year because we've got pretty good cost discipline. GAAP is different, but you got a lot of moving pieces. Particularly in the third quarter this year, we're lapping over some of the write-downs of stock comp from last year. And then going forward, again, no real change. I think we all understand that, with more business activity is going to come a little bit more expense. And just like we're in an inflationary environment that's going to help on the revenue side, we're going to be paying people a little bit more along the way. But we do think we're going to maintain discipline. The changes that we've made to our structure are going to hold going forward, and we feel -- still feel the same way.

Operator

Operator

The next question will be from Vincent Ciepiel (sic) [ Vince Ciepiel ] with Cleveland Research Company.

Vince Ciepiel

Analyst

Great. Question on distribution. You guys have done a nice job driving direct business with, I think, loyalty contribution around 60% pre-COVID. But I know OTA contribution fell from high teens to about low doubles while reducing commissions along that path, so a lot of exciting things happening on the distribution front. I'm curious, on the other side of this, how you're thinking about OTA contribution as well as how high that loyalty contribution can get.

Christopher Nassetta

Analyst

Yes, really good question. I don't feel really a lot different than I did pre-COVID. I mean we believe there's an efficient frontier, and we've calculated it as best we can by individual market property, what -- based on what they can deliver at that price point versus what we can deliver, how do we deliver the highest index -- the highest revenue for the lowest distribution cost. And we do believe, and that's why we've had a good relationship with the OTAs, that they play a part in that. It's traditionally been in the sort of 10% or 12% range, and that's historically where we've been. During COVID, that went up. But if -- we wanted it to go up. We partnered, I think, quite successfully with our OTA partners, knowing that the biggest segment of demand that was out there for most of COVID was lower-rated leisure, which is what they are particularly good at, non-loyalty -- nonloyal-type customer base. And so it has crept -- it crept up a bit but not too terribly much, and we've already seen that sort of peak and start to come down. And so while we'll look at the efficient frontier as we always do periodically and maybe if you think leisure is going to be a little bit higher component overall, maybe it goes up a little, but not much, and it didn't move that much. So the net of all that is I think when we wake up in a couple of years, it will look an awful lot like it did before. And we obviously feel good about the contractual terms that we have with the OTAs now and our ability to continue to have attractive terms going forward. As it relates to Honors, the -- my Honors…

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the call back to Chris Nassetta for any additional or closing remarks.

Christopher Nassetta

Analyst

Thanks, everybody, for the time today. I know it's a busy earnings season. We're obviously quite pleased given what we've all lived through over the last 20 months to be able to report the progress that we were able to report for the third quarter. As you could tell from the call, I remain quite optimistic about where this recovery is going and what the opportunities are in the industry but particularly for our business and the growth of our business. And we'll look forward to reporting fourth quarter and full year after the New Year. Look forward to seeing many of you while we're out on the road. And have a terrific day and holiday, if I don't see you.

Operator

Operator

And thank you, sir. The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.