Owen Kratz - Executive Chairman
Analyst · Raymond James. Go ahead
Just staying on the slide 8 for a second like just a comment, essentially recalling for a conservative estimate on the same asset base, which is essentially a flat year-over-year. You can see that at the top line and the comparison at the bottom two lines, I will say that that's flat year-over-year in spite of what you see there the interest rate increasing, as well the intercompany profit deferral. So, its... if you switch over to the next page in the 08 outlook where you see a breakdown, one thing I think you will notice is that there is no ranges this year or complex variables. This is basically just a look at what we consider a very conservative internal budget, and we'll be focusing on leading it throughout the year. In general though, we are looking at weakness on the shelf offset by growing strength in the deep. We are looking at production flat with shelf decline offset by deep contribution. Some upside contribution from new assets, both on the service side and production will become to make their presence felt by the year end. The transition towards the deep... I think from this you can see it's starting become apparent for both the services and the production. As I said before, interest in expense and eliminations went up this year. That is an area that we can work on and it gives a sort of built-in upside to tap going forward, besides all of the new assets that we have the potential of bringing on online. Just the comment on margins, there is nothing alarming in the margin drop in Q4 that was mainly an impact of taking the production impairments. The Q4000 being out for a full quarter, while it goes through its upgrade to drilling. And a large third-party content in deepwater contracting for the quarter, which although that drops margins of it, it's a very... all of these were sound decisions based on return on capital. Moving on to the next slide on the... just to give you some background, so you can fill in on the 08 budget assumptions. I think from this, we've given you a view on some of them, and you can see that it is the conservative estimate of the margins. We are calling for a slight decrease in margins. This maybe conservative, but we do have a lot of new international work that's starting up and we just thought it would be prudent on the contracting side. Assets coming into service, I believe these are conservative dates, and we will be working hard to beat those. The internal profit deferral, I might mention our budget is based on an assumption that we will be selling down some interest in deepwater properties. On the previous slides, you saw profit deferral of $50 million. Without those sell downs, they would have been $60 million and there is probably further upside in recapturing this value, if we consider any further sell downs. On the oil and gas side, I mention the sell down is basically something that was always planned, and we are just playing a little catch-up here. And I will get to that when we'll talk to you about the strategy a little bit. But, the commodity prices at $7.50 and $75 oil is roughly the same as last year, and I believe they proved out to be conservative there and will going forward. The production of 69 Bcf, again that's assuming no sell downs. The actual budgeted production is about 64.5 Bcf. So, there is not a great impact on the production from the sell downs, but it's all been netted out in the budget assumptions. Other than that, I think the only further note... well, two notes. The exploration and dry hole $40 million; $13 million of that was already taken in the... will be taken in Devil's Island in the first quarter, but the remaining $27 million, I believe, is conservative if you look at the drilling program that we have for the remainder of the year. The new field startup dates, again, hopefully these are very conservative and we can move these up. Flipping slide now to strategy. Try to capture just on a few bullet points, the essence of what's been going on. Let me just say the long-term strategy for the Company remained the same for the last two years since we have Remington acquisition. There been an opportunity emphasizing EMP to really create some value. We have created a value, both in the portfolio from that we acquired from Remington, as well as making an aggressive investment in new service additions. So, there is a lot inherent or intrinsic value in the Company. We now look.... we are now looking to capture some of the value that we created in the Remington portfolio, basically means taking a few chips off the table, laying off some of the risk and laying off some of the CapEx going forward. As I mentioned before, our budget does assume that we are going to be selling down some interests in our fields. That's basically in line with the strategic plan for the Company. We have had a tremendous year. We took some chances. We had some tremendous success, and we need to be happy with that, and start to play a little catch-up here on the sell down of the portion of interest that we own. We will then use these proceeds from these sales and our cash flow to complete the CapEx projects currently committed to, both for the service side and the production developments that are underway, and this will take us through the remainder of 08 probably to accomplish. At that time, going into 09, we will execute going forward in accordance with our strategy, and we will also focus on net debt reduction. But for right now, we need to focus on the execution of the remainder of our CapEx projects and focus on the quality performance, as we bring these new assets into the service. We will be giving a lot of serious consider to the best options going forward for unlocking value. I think everybody knows that there is a lot of value in this Company. PV-10 on reserves is $4 billion. We have another 4 Tcf and un-risk reserve potential, reserve additions of 244 Bcf going from 536 to 677. Our service assets are world-class. We arguably have most capability of any subsea contractor in the deepwater. We've got a global footprint well established in select global markets, and are positioned well to grow there. As a contractor we are smaller and more nimble, and quite honestly, we perform better than our competitors. You will often see write-ups on our competitors about contractual disputes in losses on projects. But quiet honestly, I can't remember the last time any thing was written on us in that light. The quality of this Company is just next to none. Our people are just playing out of the box of just standard, they are just extraordinary, and our growth potential is tremendous. But, with all of this value, I think there needs to be some rationale to how we go forward. We don't need to promise to put the value of all of our production on the bottom line tomorrow. Taking production equity is just one of the differentiators for us as a contractor. It's an adjunct to our contracting, and doesn't need to be the key driver of our growth. We had great success with deep prospects this year. We took some chances and are really happy that we did. But, we are as a company, risk reverse to the risk of E&P. Having said that, there are ways of capturing the value of our portfolio in support of our service growth without the E&P risk profile. It is simply not necessary for a contractor with the quality of Helix, and as well positioned as we are to be putting ourselves in unacceptable risk situations. What we do, quiet honestly, is just not that complicated. It will be my goal through the year to simplify this and to come up with formats whether this becomes a lot more transparent and the easier to understand. The emphasis going forward will be absolutely focused on unlocking the values that's currently in the Company. With that, I will open it up to the Q&A.