Earnings Labs

Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY)

Q3 2013 Earnings Call· Fri, May 3, 2013

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Transcript

Graham Paul Briggs

Management

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, this is the quarter 3 results of Harmony for the financial year '13. I have with me here, Frank Abbott, as well as Mashego Mashego. Henrika and Marian are also in attendance, so we obviously can hopefully deal with any questions that you might have. It gives me pleasure in giving this presentation, it's a fairly long presentation, so we'll be going through slides at a reasonable pace. I hope that you all have the presentation, hopefully, from the webmail. And if there are any questions, if I go through something too quickly, please bring me back at the end of the presentation, and we will try and answer the questions. So we have our Safe Harbor statement that you should read through. Obviously, it talks about forward-looking statements. As far as the agenda goes, and I'm on Slide 3, I'm going to talk a little bit about the gold price. I'm not a good -- my crystal ball is probably as cloudy as everyone else's on what's going to happen in future. But I do want to talk about the gold price. And we'll then talk about the quarter 3 results. And then, we'll talk about finances, and Frank will do that section. We'll go to Papua New Guinea, talk around Papua New Guinea exploration, Wafi-Golpu and the like. And then, we'll talk a little bit about our mining communities and what we're doing around the mines and then, conclude. Let me start off by talking about the gold price. And Slide 5, just captures the gold price as it has been for the 9 months to March 2013. We compare it to March 2012. And you can see that the gold price in rand per kilogram terms increased by 10% there. In the…

Frank Abbott

Management

Thank you, Graham. Slide 25, this is a graph which shows the net cash, net debt position of Harmony and some of our gold peers. The net cash, net debt position as shown in U.S. dollar millions, as at the end of December 2012. As you can see, the first 2 companies there have a positive net cash position. At the end of December, Harmony had $16 million cash positive position, surplus cash more than debt. At the end of this quarter, that has increased to $62 million. The next 3 bars are South African gold companies and then, we've got an Australian company and the blue ones are the North American companies. What we want to show you is that Harmony has actually got a very strong balance sheet, and we've got now gearing. Thank you. Our cash flow summary, quarter-on-quarter, in rand. Our cash flow from operations reduced to ZAR 361 million in this quarter. This was mainly due to the ZAR 800 million lower cash operating profit because of the lower gold production. Exploration expenditure stayed pretty much the same. Income and mining taxes lowered because of lower profitability. We received ZAR 1.264 million from Evander. We also, during this quarter, received a distribution from Evander of ZAR 210 million. If we add this up, we've received the ZAR 1.5 billion which we sold Evander for. Our capital expenditure was lower at ZAR 855 million. There was lower capital expenditure at Kusasalethu and some of the other operations. We paid a dividend of ZAR 217 million during the quarter. If we look at our surplus cash after debt, it was ZAR 574 million. If you look at our cash balance, you'll see that increased from ZAR 2.5 billion to ZAR 3.099 billion in the quarter. Again, this…

Graham Paul Briggs

Management

Thank you very much, Frank. Talking about Papua New Guinea, a slide here of a drill rig with a lot of mountains in the background on Papua New Guinea. I'm going to talk little bit about Wafi and Golpu and there's a few slides on this. Firstly, our plan on Slide 33 here, a plan of the area showing you Golpu, Wafi and in circles there in the yellow dashed lines, various boreholes and areas of interest which are, at the moment, poorly defined and therefore, not necessarily continuous. So during the quarter, a lot of drilling has happened in Golpu. I'll take you through some of that. But just looking outside of Golpu, and the one we focus on here is the eastern margin WR457, and you can see the sort of gold grades there, that's a significant gold grade hits and in an area which is -- mineralization which is more similar to Wafi. And so this is an area that we don't understand yet. There'll be a lot more drilling that happens in and around this area to understand it better, but it's certainly all good news. If you go over to Slide 34, the diagram is a little bit difficult, so let me try and take you through it. The dark sort of orange, goldy color is the grade shell at 1.5% copper and this was from the 2012 resource. So the 2012 resource modeling you can see was that dark color. With the latest information and you can see some of the drill holes on that slide, you can see the sort of pinky color which is around that, that's for leapfrog modeling at the moment. At the same grade cut-off of 1.5%. So it looks -- and it's apparent that there is a much…

Operator

Operator

We have a question from Anna Mulholland from Deutsche Bank.

Anna Mulholland - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division

Management

I've got 3 questions, please. The first, hopefully, is a relatively quick one. Just looking at the grade drop at Tshepong mine and wondering what the specific reason was for that, if we can expect a recovery in the following quarters? The second question is on exploration costs. Are you specifically looking to turn back on the exploration side of things. I'm not sure if you're including that cost in your ZAR 400 million target. And if you're not, are you looking to take a significant chunk out of exploration as well? And finally, under what circumstances would you actually look to close mines and shaft? I mean, you're saying that that's not on the cards at the moment, but what are your sort of benchmarks for an environment in which you'd have to start considering that?

Graham Paul Briggs

Management

Okay. Thank you very much Anna for those questions. On Tshepong, yes, it's been a poorer grade performance. I think it's a -- most of the new, better grades is coming from the southern side of the mine from the decline area and it's a case of getting that up to full production. The guys are working hard at it. Development is looking good. It's not a long term issue. We need to get that grade up into the area of, sort of, the 4.5 to 5-gram a tonne mark. Exploration costs. Yes, we have had a look at the exploration costs. The areas of the joint venture have been looked at quite extensively. Most of our exploration costs is in PNG. I would expect that there's probably going to be somewhere around a 15%, maybe even up to 20% cost cuts in exploration costs. It's a case of relooking at everything we do around exploration, not only the costs in the ground but the administration, the helicopter charges and so on. On closing of mines, the underperforming mines at the moment are those mines that are building up in production. And certainly, if we didn't believe in the ore bodies, we would have a good look at those mines. But at the moment, we've got no planned closures. The next mine to close is really quite a small one, and that's Steyn 2, I think that's probably in the region of 12 to 18 months time. But I mean, that's been mining it's shaft pillar and that's planned for closure. But we have got nothing else planned at the moment. We believe all our operations can be profitable at this gold price.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Allan Cooke from JPMorgan. Allan J. Cooke - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: Graham, Frank, just a question on your CapEx, let's say [ph], the ZAR 400 million. Could you indicate briefly where you're taking that CapEx, which mines are you taking that CapEx, that ZAR 400 million in aggregate out of the facility?

Graham Paul Briggs

Management

Allan, sorry, I did get the question but not very clearly. I think your question was about the ZAR 400 million savings in South Africa and where does it come from. It comes from various areas. It's really looking at the total CapEx build in South Africa. So it comes from a multitude of areas. It's really looking at that CapEx that would be classified as sort of shaft and growth capital. The development capital, which is the substantial part of the capital, is continuing unabated. And then, the other part of capital, obviously, we need to look at carefully is what we call sort of AEs or bigger replacements and so on. But most of that is -- has to be performed because it is of maintenance capital form. So our forecast in capital, I think, is reasonable looking forward. As I said, we are busy with the plans. At the moment, that sort of ZAR 400 million is an objective, and it's something we believe we can take out. Allan J. Cooke - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: You stated that when the crushers are in them and you move back to more normal production at Hidden Valley, your costs will come down some 20%. Is that on this quarter's cost, just to put a number to them? And what is your expectation for production at Hidden Valley, with the crushers in.

Graham Paul Briggs

Management

Yes. I think what is going to happen -- I mean, the crushers are busy going in at the moment, as we speak. I would expect that, certainly, during the next month, we'll have -- we'll be going through the full commissioning phase. So as from the beginning of our financial year '14, we should see normality in the crusher and also the overland conveyor. The big cost that comes out of there is the cost of hauling. Cost of hauling is phenomenal. When you're hauling that rock down to the Valley, 5 kilometers and you got to take the trucks back up again. So that's the big cost there. Also, getting good performance out of the overland conveyor with a period of no slabbing rocks and no tears to the belt. So that's going to be quite a massive change. My expectation is that in financial year '14, we'll see Hidden Valley back in a profit situation. But actually, achieving the planned outputs, which is somewhere around, probably, just over 100 -- say, 110,000 ounces for the year, financial year '14. A bit of an estimate, as I said, at the moment but we haven't finished our plants. But that's what I would guess it's looking like at the moment. Allan J. Cooke - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: And then, just finally, if you could update us on your planning for wage negotiations, and what you see for Harmony as a group? And Kusasalethu, in particular, where you have that 60% AMCU representation, are you still committed to the chamber process? How do you see things unfolding? And potentially, could you be negotiating wages on a mine by mine basis, for example, at Kusasalethu where you have that high AMCU representation?

Graham Paul Briggs

Management

Yes. Good question, Allan. It's going to be an interesting process, call it interesting, difficult process. I think the different parties in the negotiation, it's certainly going to be the interesting part of it. Remember that there are different parties, not only from the union side, but also from the owner side because we have -- there's been several transactions in the last couple of years, which now include Pan African, Gold One, Village into that bargaining process. And also, Sibanye and of course, with the split of Gold Fields and Sibanye. So there are some interesting dynamics that are going to happen. AMCU, of course, is a complication for us because as you rightly pointed out, it represents Kusasalethu, really, and not the rest of our operations. We are not 100% sure whether AMCU will be in on the chamber process or not. But irrespective of that, obviously, they're going to have to be included, somehow, in these wage negotiations. As to the what's going to happen in the quantum, certainly, Harmony, the last time around, managed to negotiate a profit share. That profit share has worked, I think, well for us, as well as well for employees. The focus has been on profits as opposed to just production targets. So that is helping us. It's certainly a process that we would like to continue, in other words, continue to have a variable portion to our salaries, which we can all see the benefits of. So it's difficult to give you a quantum, certainly, on what's going to happen at the negotiating table. My sort of assumption going forward is that the quantum on the basic pay will be conservative and hopefully, the upside will be on the variable portion.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Adrian Hammond from BNP Paribas.

Adrian Hammond - BNP Paribas, Research Division

Management

I have 2 questions. First one for Frank. Frank, with regards to Slide 10 and the outlook for CapEx. Could you split those numbers for the revised guidance out for SA and Papua New Guinea? And then, my second question, on Slide 16, you indicated reserve grades and development grades. Could you indicate where the company is sitting at right now in terms of where it's mining at?

Graham Paul Briggs

Management

Yes, let me try and answer both, if you don't mind. So the capital expenditure, on Slide 10, that we're giving you the financial year '14 forecast, we deliberately haven't split out there, Adrian, because we haven't got the final figures on it. So it is an estimate and we will revise this as we get our new plans in. But I guess, we are indicating that ZAR 1 billion is probably going to come out of the Papua New Guinea plans and that's basically mostly on, probably, Wafi-Golpu, but a bit of it is probably on Hidden Valley. And then ZAR 400 million of it is coming out of South Africa. So that's Slide 10. Your next slide number was 16, I think. So these are development grades, in the black line, of all the operations and this is the reef development and this is the grade. So in the red line, we've got the life-of-mine reserve grades. That's the number that you will see in the Appendix, and Slide 47 also, 47. And you'll see that, that is the mineral reserve grade June 2012 in the red, and our development grades here. So we've related them back to centimeter grams per tonne. In other words, the width multiplied by the gram per tonne. What it does say is that we are actually developing grades which are higher than our reserve grades at the moment. There's detail on that, mine by mine, in the quarterly. Does that answer your question?

Adrian Hammond - BNP Paribas, Research Division

Management

I was just trying to kind of find out where you sit right now in terms of mining grades in centimeter grams per tonne?

Graham Paul Briggs

Management

Yes, I can't give you that figure, unfortunately, because I don't have it. But I can certainly -- we can arrange to get it for you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Andrew Byrne from Barclays.

Andrew Byrne - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Management

Just 2 questions, if I may. The first one is on Phakisa. Is there any chance you can maybe give us an update post the fire last week, kind of, where we're at and what we should expect for the remainder of the year? And then, the second question is -- this may be a bit of a broader one and maybe you can expand on it, it's how should we think about Hidden Valley, realistically, over the next 2 to 3 years? Because obviously, kind of, you've made a large investment there, plus as well, you've also kind of used it to demonstrate your social licensing and almost got a license to operate in Papua New Guinea. Do you feel that if you were to close that mine at some stage, if that was the deal, split decision made, would that jeopardize your ability to develop Wafi-Golpu? And how do you think around those or should we treat them as truly mutually exclusive?

Graham Paul Briggs

Management

Yes, 2 very interesting questions. The first one on Phakisa fire, and I think you've probably seen some of the news flow on that, that the Section 54 has been basically lifted on both those mines, Tshepong and Phakisa. It does affect what's called Section 117 on Tshepong, which is in the -- basically, in the chimney areas of fires so we can't get into that, so Tshepong is probably not mining about 14 panels or so. So it's affecting a little bit on Tshepong's door. And on Phakisa, we've also lost some panels there because they are in areas where we can't ventilate them. So production is not back to normal yet. It will only get back to normal once we've cleared the fire. The readings of gases are coming down. We believe the fire is basically out but smoldering. And you can't really open that thing because once you open it, of course, just like any smoldering fire, you create -- you fan the flames. And so we have to basically monitor that thing and see how long it goes. We just don't know how long that fire will continue smoldering. And at the moment, we have a slightly reduced production, but the guys are doing what they can to get production up from other places. So it certainly will affect this quarter, but I don't know to what extent. On Hidden Valley, yes, I guess, the correction is, we do have a social license to operate in Papua New Guinea, and I think it would be a dim view of everybody if we close this mine because we haven't been able to manage it properly. It is a mine, I believe, that can operate at a profit and that's what both partners believe, and there are a lot of areas that we need to improve in this -- on this mine. And I've indicated that I believe we can get it back into profitability during 2014. So that's the intent going forward. Obviously, it needs to make much better profits going forward. So -- but in 2014, I think we'll get it back into a profitable situation. So no intention of closing that operation and certainly, it is a mine that deserves to operate.

Andrew Byrne - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Management

Sure, okay. Just one very last question. Apologies if I've missed it somewhere. What is your guidance now for FY '13 in terms of production and costs?

Graham Paul Briggs

Management

Yes. So you've got 3 quarters. I think we've given you that number on the 3 quarters and so there is that and then, you just need to put in this quarter. What is this quarter going to be? We haven't put any predictions out there but essentially, we are saying Kusasalethu is going to get up to around about 50% of its production. And I'm talking gold production. So that's going to happen and that was in our previous quarter's prediction. And the other operations should be operating normally, except for a little bit of loss of production on Tshepong and Phakisa. But -- so we can expect a fairly strong quarter this quarter coming up.

Andrew Byrne - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Management

And kind of quarter-to-date, have you seen a recovery in grades or is it staying kind of relatively flat on Q3? That's obviously instrumental to the investment case with yourself, a good bulk of the growth to 1.7 comes from the grades.

Graham Paul Briggs

Management

Yes, it comes from grades as well as volumes. The grades are always a difficult thing to predict until you get to the end of the quarter because the guidance that we have is the daily belt grades, the daily plant grades. But they don't actually produce the final sort of recovery grades and certainly, for the gold. We are only 1 month into the quarter and therefore, it would be very bold of me to give you an exact sort of declaration of what the grade is going to be at the end of the quarter. However, having said that, I mean, our grades are looking much better at the moment. So I'm predicting a much better grade towards the end of this quarter.

Operator

Operator

Gentlemen, we have no further questions from the conference line.

Graham Paul Briggs

Management

Okay. Let's see if we've got some questions from the web. And I'll ask Marian, if you don't mind, to read them out.

Marian van der Walt

Management

Yes, sure. Good morning, to everyone. This question comes from Mike Schroeder from Alt Mutual. There was a report last week that full-time union representatives are no longer paid by the mines. Can you confirm that, and how many people would that be in the case of Harmony?

Graham Paul Briggs

Management

What I can confirm is that this is an issue that is being discussed with unions and it, certainly -- the intent is to stop the practice in the future. A lot has been, sort of, written in the press about this and sort of giving the bad side of it. But remember, this practice was started, and I think it was probably towards the end of the '80s. And this was meant to give unions more exposure to, sort of, bringing them up to an improved sort of negotiating status. So it was made post the sort of 1980s, I believe, in the area of education and training. So people have sort of they haven't -- have missed that side of what has happened here, it's an area which -- and really, the intent is not to continue it in the future. I don't know the exact numbers in Harmony, but it's not a huge number. Sometimes a regional representative may come from another mining company, sometimes from Harmony. One can accept that probably most of the regional representatives in the Free States are probably ex-Harmony or Harmony employees whereas, when you get into the head offices number, they're probably not. But I can't give you the exact number, I'm afraid. And it's not because I'm hiding any subjects, it's just that I don't know. We can attempt to find that number out.

Marian van der Walt

Management

Of course. And then, Mike had a second question, perhaps, aimed at you, Frank. Congratulations on the timing of your Evander sale. Will you pass on these proceeds with your next dividend?

Frank Abbott

Management

Thank you for the question. When we look at dividend, we take all the different things into account. We'll be looking at the gold price, the capital expenditure before we make a decision on the dividend, but it certainly helps our balance sheet.

Marian van der Walt

Management

Thank you, Frank. And then, the last question comes from Steve Shepherd. On Golpu, Graham, if the gold price stays at or below $1,500 an ounce, and considering your increased balance sheet, which you highlighted, may they be mirrored in inviting a third global diversified mining partner into the project?

Graham Paul Briggs

Management

Yes, nice question, and remember that Golpu is not just about the gold price or the gold content because there's a lot of copper. The copper grades are what really makes this project a different category of project. So it's a combination of what is going to happen to the gold price and the copper price in the future. Remember the planning that we've been doing on various studies, pre-feasibility studies and the various studies we've done and really been looking at the gold price of around about $1,250 to $1,400. Frank can correct me if I'm wrong. But in that range, we've been looking at the gold price. And then, we've been looking at copper prices in the range of, I think, $270 to $350. So we've had various ranges of them, and they haven't been looking at the spot price. So it's a project, it's -- because it's going to have such a low cash costs, it's going to be a project that produce a significant amount of cash. It's one of those mines that will survive even in the lowest commodity price cycles. And that's the beauty of the project. So it deserves to get built. It deserves to get built as quickly as it can, but as properly as it can as well. So it also needs to be built right. To invite a third party. No, there's no intention of bringing a third party in. Remember that the government is potentially the third-party there and potentially, they can get 30% that would dilute Harmony down to 35%, which is probably enough dilution anywhere on a project like this. No, there's no intention of that.

Marian van der Walt

Management

Thank you, Graham. And that concludes all the questions from the webcast participants. So I think we can conclude with this.

Graham Paul Briggs

Management

Okay. Thank you very much. Thank you, Marian for reading those. Yes, so I guess, our March quarter was a tough quarter. What's happening in the gold price, we've already started a process there of reducing costs. Austerity measures, as I call them, although, governments normally use that terminology. We have really been able to fund our capital. So in the past, funding our capital, funding our exploration is what we've done, that we don't do on borrowings. And we've got cash in the bank as well. So we're in a strong situation. The guys are optimistic on operations. It looks like we're doing all the right things on the operations, producing the results. Obviously, the guys need to keep focused on those plans because that's really what's going to make Harmony a successful company. Thank you very much for listening and enjoy your day.