Earnings Labs

Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY)

Q1 2023 Earnings Call· Wed, Feb 28, 2024

$15.63

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Transcript

Peter Steenkamp

Management

Good morning or good afternoon, wherever you may be across the world. I am Peter Steenkamp, CEO of Harmony. Thank you for joining us virtually today as we present our Interim Results for the Half Year Ended 31st of December 2023 for the current reporting period. Please take note of our safe statement. Let me begin with a summary to remind you who we are and what our strategy is. Harmony is a specialized gold producer with a growing international copper footprint. We also produce small amounts of silver and uranium. We have over 73 years of gold mining experience in South Africa and have been operating for over two decades in Papua New Guinea. Our strategy is aimed at producing safe, profitable ounces and improving margins through operational excellence and value-adaptive acquisitions. Our mineral resources and mineral reserves declaration of 138 million ounces and 39 million ounces respectively, presents an incredible opportunity to convert the quality ounces into shared value for our shareholders and stakeholders. Our gold tailings re-treatment business or recycling as you may know it, is the largest globally and is set to grow supporting the circular economy. The Tier 1 Moafie Gold Project in Papua New Guinea and Eva Copper in Australia give Harmony a sizable copper gold footprint, which will be transformational. Currently, our diversified portfolio of operating assets including nine underground mines, two open pit mines, and a significant failings re-treatment business. Production comes from four business areas, namely our South African high-grade underground mines, our South African optimized underground mines, a large and growing surface sources business in South Africa, and a growing international copper gold portfolio, of which Hidden Valley is the only producing mine at this stage. Mining with purpose ensures that our stakeholders share in the benefits of the minerals…

Boipelo Lekubo

Management

Thank you, Peter. I'm pleased to present our exceptional financial performance for this reporting period. All US dollar figures and conversions are in their exchange. Group revenue for this financial half year increased by 35% to ZAR31 billion. EBITDA increased by 114% to ZAR17 billion. As a result, headline earnings per share increased by 226% to ZAR 956 per share. With ZAR 9.8 billion in available headroom through cash and undrawn facilities, our balance sheet is well positioned to execute on our project pipeline and acquisition ambitions. Through operational excellence and consistent production, we have healthy margins at current gold prices. At ZAR1.2 million per kilogram or $2,000 an ounce, our all-in cost margin is at 33%. This is essentially the margin available after all major capital. Our all-in sustaining cost margin is 42% and our cash operating cost margin is 68%. We are therefore well positioned with good buffers to absorb any adverse movements in the gold price. We have an effective hedging program in place with 20% of our production hedged over 24 months. The Rand gold hedge book was maintained at 20% or 558,000 ounces at an average forward hedge cover of over ZAR1.256 million a kilogram. Returning cash to shareholders alongside our growth aspirations remains a key priority. Harmony's dividend policy is to pay a return of 20%, net free cash generated to shareholders, at the discretion of the directors -- of the Board of Directors. The strong operational performance and exceptional net free cash generation, resulted in a record interim dividend of ZAR1.47 or US$ 0.80 per share declared, which will result in a record payment to shareholders of over ZAR1 billion. This has resulted in a 12-month dividend yield of just over 2%. Cumulatively, we've paid ZAR2.7 billion in dividends, since 2016. With ongoing confidence in our plans, controlling what we can, such as safety, production and costs, we aim to fed true to our dividend policy. Thank you, and back to you, Peter.

Peter Steenkamp

Management

Thank you, Boipelo. So in conclusion, Harmony is a company that delivers sustainable, predictable and flexible operational performance with a well-managed, fixed cost structure. Our guidance for FY 2024 remains unchanged. And we are confident that we will reach the upper-end of our production guidance and the lower-end of our cost guidance. Through our embedded sustainability practices and quality ounces, we have a company with a long reserve life. Our geared exposure to the Rand per kilogram gold price continues to provide us with good tailwinds on both the revenue and marginal perspective. We have two significant international copper projects that complement our existing gold assets. We understand our ore bodies. We have a strong technical and exploration capabilities. And we are the partners of choice wherever we operate. As Boipelo mentioned, our flexible and strong balance sheet supports our growth pipeline. As a gold mining specialist with a growing international copper footprint, we are passionate about what we do and about transforming our goal into long-term value for all stakeholders. This is mining with purpose. Thank you. And I'll now hand over for questions.

Operator

Operator

Thank you very much, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, our first question is from Adrian Hammond of SBG. Please go ahead.

Adrian Hammond

Analyst

Hi Peter. Thanks for the presentation and well-done on a great set of results you share. Your share of course has been the best performer globally over the past year. So I guess the question is can you sustain this incredible rating of yours? One of them, reference Slide 21, where you see a gap in your production profile, even with the international projects you have in the pipeline. So is that something that bothers the team that they wish to fill and does that mean you're going to do more M&A? That's the first question. Secondly, ever, we don't have a CapEx number yet on that, and perhaps you can enlighten us. But how do you manage to de-risk this project going forward? Do you think you're going to need a partner there? Doesn't it make sense? And then thirdly, I like your comments in the commentary around Uranium, which has become more of the material revenue generator for you, but you do say you're going to explore further potential. Can you expand on that, please? Thank you.

Peter Steenkamp

Management

Okay. So let me just get to the first question. So we, obviously, in that status where we want to get the mines to the gap that will probably go down to about 1.2 million ounces. But one must remember that there's also a much better quality ounces at the time. I think the margins of the portfolio of assets we have at the time is very good. So there are some opportunities to fill that gap. One is, obviously, to do more surface sources. But I mean we are also always looking at what we can do in terms of an acquisition or a kind of a merger that potentially can take us over that and take us forward. And, obviously, when we do an acquisition, it needs to be a real -- very near-term production or already in production kind of operations. So we have a team that -- new business team and the leadership of Johannes van Heerden that reduced a wonderful work. And we're currently in Miami, there at the BMO and Johannes is here with us and trying to find why we can do that. So we are always looking at that -- opportunities that's going to get there. The EVA Copper CapEx, we are -- people will know the work that we've done thus far and EVA shows that it will be a slightly bigger mine, but a much longer life mine that we currently have there. There is a few amendments we want to do in terms of the permits that -- remember, we bought this mine with the full feasibility study and fully permitted. But we want to make some few amendments to that permit and it's really on the back of energy mix, water management on the mine and also the…

Adrian Hammond

Analyst

Sure. Do you see the partnerships with local players there?

Peter Steenkamp

Management

Yes. Potentially, we can. But remember, all of this one plant and the plant is pretty full at this point in time. We are factoring our ore and through the Moab Khotsong we also fitting [indiscernible]

Adrian Hammond

Analyst

Okay. Understood. Enjoy your time in Miami. Thank you.

Peter Steenkamp

Management

Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Thank you very much. Next question is from Arnold Van Graan of Nedbank CIB. Please go ahead.

Arnold Van Graan

Analyst

Yes. Good morning, Peter and good afternoon, everyone else. First of all, well done on the results. It's good to see Harmony crystallizing the value of the gold price. So, well done on the back of not just the high price but also, very good operational performance. So my question very similar to Adrian's question, maybe a bit more detail. But I just want to get a sense of how sustainable the higher grades are more up in Pune [ph]. I mean it's phenomenal to see that, we love to see that. But are you going to continue mining at these rates for the next year or so? And then I guess the question that goes with that is what's driving these high-grade? Is it where you are in those ore bodies? Is it a result of your operating performance and additional developments? Can you just give us some comfort that in six months or 12 months from now, where we are back, we'll still be seeing similar grades and not a big step down? And yes, that's it for me. Thanks Peter.

Peter Steenkamp

Management

Yes, Arnold. South African grades are quite sustainable. I mean where we're mining now at Mponeng is obviously, we mined through the lower-grades assets. We're now in the higher-grade assets. Remember, that was always the argument when we also mine from AngloGold Ashanti time, actually the grades is low now, but it's going to be much higher going forward. So we -- yes, so we are really putting there, and obviously, mining up is a great restarting always more -- you have to have a great mix with the middle mine that’s perform well. Now the middle mine performed very well in the last six months and will most likely continue to perform well going forward. But there's always the one that is actually quite complex and have some sort of issue always for seismicity and things like that. But I mean, we think -- where we plan to mine is what we're going to get the grades. And there's also something very good grades from the Sponsouth operation, which is the -- that is that we're mining in, which is -- was better than we expected. All the other grades were actually according to plan. Although it was high, it was planned that way. The one area where we'll have a great drop in the latter part of this year will be at Hidden Valley. We are mining for that b grade that we've explained to the market that we're going to hit. We actually last six months, we were in a b grade. There will be some of that still coming through in this quarter. And we're in -- we still have haven't processed all the b grade are yet. But then we'll go into lower grades, the typical 1.1% versus the 1.6% that we currently have. So it's quite a -- but still that's 10% of our production. So that will be -- we're very comfortable with the great guidance that we said we'll be at the upper end of it, and we are in good grades going forward. So it's -- all in all, but all the operations performed going, not only [indiscernible] was spectacular. But the other -- every other mine has actually done quite well as far as grade is concerned.

Arnold Van Graan

Analyst

Thank you, Peter. That's all from me.

Peter Steenkamp

Management

Thanks, Arnold.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Leroy Mnguni of HSBC. Please go ahead.

Leroy Mnguni

Analyst

Hi, good afternoon. Thanks Peter. My first question is around your guidance. You've had excellent operational performance in the first half of the year. I understand the seasonality going into the second half of the year, which is normally a bit weaker. But are you anticipating anything either the normal seasonality that's going to have an adverse impact on your operational performance because keeping your guidance flat or unchanged does sort of suggest that? So, if you could please give us a bit of color on that? And then just an update on the turnaround efforts at Target and how those are going? Are you still on track to have turned that mine around by the middle of the calendar year? And then my third question is, has the fatality at Mponeng had a significant impact on your operational momentum at that mine?

Peter Steenkamp

Management

Now, the guidance, we said that we'll, at least, get to the upper end and probably beat that. We don't foresee any issues other than seasonality, but I've talked about in value that, that obviously will have lower grades in the fourth quarter and even in this quarter, probably in the March month will be to normal grade. But yes, we don't -- other than seasonality, there's nothing that we believe that is in our horizon that will really drop production. I mean everything is going well. But we always have a slow start up after Christmas. It's like I wish I can one day say that we can get through Christmas without having issues with the restart up. But there was nothing -- everything over the Christmas period in terms of restarting the mines and everything else like that was done barring what happened at Mponeng was actually certainly on plan and executed [ph]. Target, we are glad to say the project is behind us. The crushers are running. The conveyor systems are running. Everything is down now to the bottom of the mine. We're still just completing the final parts of the workshops down there. So, we will have a much better Target going forward. And we obviously now can have that much shorter travel businesses et cetera. So, I'm very happy with that. And then so -- yes, Target will now, obviously, create the flexibility that we need and everything else because I mean it was a very difficult project to execute on without any saying. In Mponeng, we had quite a senior person in our operation that actually went into a hot area, a very experienced person, one captain level, that's obviously also experienced the terms that it used to be a proto captain. And unfortunately, went into a hot area where he shouldn't, actually struck as not to go. And yes, so that had quite impact on the mine more from a model perspective or the culture because I mean this was quite a strong individual tastemaker in on the mine, a very sad incident. But I mean, other than that, we -- it was actually in an area that was not really a production, it was actually a vamping area that we went into. So, I think we got through that. But a very sad event and obviously, always reminding us about not taking risks, not doing things that we shouldn't be doing. And it's a culture that we want to emphasize in Harmony. But I don't think the Mponeng event will have a big impact on Mponeng itself.

Leroy Mnguni

Analyst

Thank you. That's helpful. And maybe just one follow-up. Where do you expect the all-in sustaining costs for Target to land now that you've executed on all that you needed to change there?

Peter Steenkamp

Management

Will come down. I think in the next year, we would certainly be in a good profit situation at target. So yeah, so I'm looking forward to that. Obviously, we got a planning process now. The cycle -- planning cycle is well underway. So -- but yeah, we expect it to come in nice profit situations for Target going forward. So -- but this year will still be tight because of the flexibility that we still know to have in the ore body, and that will be a busy rating as we speak.

Leroy Mnguni

Analyst

Perfect. Thanks, Peter.

Operator

Operator

Thank you very much. So we have no further questions on the conference call.

Unidentified Company Representative

Analyst

There are some questions here. Can you hear me? All right. So we were to start here? Yeah. I think, Peter, it's also just a couple of questions here from a few of the analysts that have questions about just the second half production, I mean relative to first half. I know we have spoken about the guidance that was unchanged. But I mean, really just asking if there's going to be any material change in the second half given that we're tracking north of 55% in terms of goes from the first half.

Peter Steenkamp

Management

Yeah. No. And again, like you said, when we gave feedback to Arnold and there's nothing actually different from this year to last year for this after pretty resolved except for Hidden Valley, which will have a lower grade going forward. But the rest of the operations are in the same space, same areas that they're mining and operations actually should continue. But barring the seasonality that we have with a slow start in January and February. Other than that, I think we are -- we'll be good.

Unidentified Company Representative

Analyst

Okay. Just another question from Arnold here in terms of the CapEx numbers. Obviously, we haven't updated the market yet based on the numbers. But maybe just some indication as to how far out could we expect this project to be pushed. I think you did touch on it briefly, Peter.

Peter Steenkamp

Management

Yeah. As I said, I mean, it all depends if we get these amendments to be minor or major. If it's minor, we can not likely start the latter part of this calendar year, start -- I mean, obviously, titrated take it to the Board. in the final year results, which is more less August when we take it to a Board for approval. And then after that start with early works. So that will be the target a best-case scenario. Obviously, if we have to go on an amendment of the conditions or the permits that take a little bit longer, we may agree to do some early works earlier, but we just want to make sure that we get that answer first from the Queensland government in terms of those amendments to the permits that we would like to introduce.

Unidentified Company Representative

Analyst

Could take some questions here in Johannesburg. I see we've got some pulling specific ones that we could direct at Baas.

Operator

Operator

We have another follow-up question on the conference call from Leroy Mnguni. Please go ahead.

Leroy Mnguni

Analyst

Hi. Thank you. Peter, I was just curious, the Benin life extension project, does that trigger any of the resources that have that deferred consideration payable back to Anglo Gold attached to them. I know there were certain areas of the mine where if you extend it into that area, you have to pay like a royalty or a deferred consideration and back to AngloGold Ashanti. Does that at all?

Peter Steenkamp

Management

Yes, it is. It's a small amount per tonnes. What's that amount again?

Boipelo Lekubo

Management

Yes. In terms of the existing infrastructure, I think it's $20 an ounce.

Peter Steenkamp

Management

Yes, above $250, but it's $5 an ounce, or something like that for the below infrastructure that will trigger it, it was taken into account also in the feasibility study. So yes, so we are -- the old trigger and below infrastructure. Everything below structure. Well, that's obviously the shaft pillar will not affect that, but everything below infrastructure will attract that deferred payment. At the moment, we are also paying -- because we are doing more than 250,000 as per calendar year. We are all doing -- we are paying a royalty of $20 ounce to everything above 250. So that's also -- as part of our results in the results here.

Boipelo Lekubo

Management

It's in the book to as well -- you can see under in the high-grade section point 1 and 2 under the -- it just tells you what the deferred components of that sale agreement were.

Leroy Mnguni

Analyst

All right. Got it. Thank you.

Marian van der Walt

Analyst

Jared, and then perhaps we can just take some questions here in Johannesburg as it relates to Pruning specifically. Let's perhaps touch on one that Rene raises, Bayers. Can ask this question to you, it's just about the development of the ramp at 4,000 meters. It is concerning according to Rene. Usually, you carry development at those depths behind over stoped areas and distressed areas. How will you handle the stresses with our distressed over stoping?

Peter Steenkamp

Management

Thank you, Marian, and Rene for the question. So I think perhaps just a bit more color on the improved mine design for the Mponeng deepening project. It will, in fact, be three separate sets of infrastructure for three target areas of the ore body, starting at the first one, which is the carbon leader early gold. That's, in fact, infrastructure, Rene or a ramp that will be created from 120 levels. So that's above levels where we're currently mining so well within the capability of understanding the rock mass and the stress regime and the seismic response in that area. On the deeper side of the mine, it's the two sets of infrastructure towards the east and the west on the VCR horizon. So on the East, it's going to be a two-level decline sync. And on the West, it's going to be a three-level spiral ramp on the west. Now it's important to realize it's only about 270 meters that the mine will be made deeper. So from the four-kilometer base, it's not that we're doubling the depth of the mine. So we're quite comfortable that we do understand the support requirements and the rock mass behavior, Rene at that depth. So it's a little bit -- we're taking that ramp in the picture on the screen now, the green ramp is the ramp that is going to be developed at depth deeper.

Leroy Mnguni

Analyst

Thank you, Peter.

Marian van der Walt

Analyst

Yes, I may add, Rene, is that we do have the kind of support systems now that can be in actual fact, when we do the declines in any case, we don't do it under distressed areas. So we do have a support regime to in actual fact support that. So we also -- there's obviously one of the biggest, biggest concerns was to do we have the capabilities and management of seismicity in these deep level mines? And Mponeng's seismic activity over 1,000 square meters per 7 square meters mine, the seismic release rates actually came down because of the configurations were used. The pillar configurations -- The pillar configuration we currently use the lease and lags that we manage, the support systems that we put in, the quality of backfill that improved over years. And then obviously, also the steel nets that we currently have in all our working places. So we think we've got -- we've really got the state of the art and the understanding and the know-how to do this. And that is what we make our specialists in this environment, specifically there. So -- and we have a very strong track record of seismic management since army took over there. And even prior to that, the work at [indiscernible]. So we are very comfortable that we tick that box as far as safety is concerned. A –Unidentified Company Representative: Peter, thank you and Jared, again, I'm just going to ask Boipelo. We've been asked by Arnold Sankaran. -- just to chat a little bit about stream coming to an end at Mine Waste Solutions and what that would do to the free cash flow. And then -- while we're addressing questions to you, there was a question which has since disappeared. Just the IRR that was assumed for the Mponeng extension and specifically also the gold price that was used in finalizing that feasibility study, please?

Boipelo Lekubo

Management

Sure, Marion. So from Mponeng gold price was ZAR 1.1 million a kilogram, the IRR at 17%. Yes. And then just on the first question with regards to the stream, I think that adds about its 25,000 ounces that remain, and that will add about ZAR 700 million to revenue. A –Unidentified Company Representative: Thanks, Boipelo And perhaps just the last question for Asia in Johannesburg, and then we'll hand over to Miami again that all feels quite multinational. And I ask this question is a tough one, but I'm going to ask you, this is from Chris Nicholson at RMB -- he wants to know gram per-tonne costs were at 22%, Chris, but I'm sure you've seen that our all-in sustaining cost is coming down gram per kilogram, if you noticed, it's actually moving towards the left of that graph just saying. So the gram per tonne on costs were up 2% year-on-year at the South African underground with the South African underground assets, 14% at SA overall. Could you comment on this high level of inflation? And what do you expect the gram per tonne inflation to run at into 2024?

Jared Hoover

Analyst

Thank you for the question, Chris. So Harmony has always targeted improvement in our grade to help us manage inflation. And so we're not immune as the other mines to inflation. And the key drivers of higher-than-normal inflation were, in fact, in our electricity costs in South Africa. That number increased by 19%. So which obviously added to the gram per tonne inflation number. The other one that was slightly elevated, although we believe it's well understood, and it's fairly manageable for us on our long-term agreements is our wage number. So South African wage is escalated by 9% over the period. And then the third one, which we made mention in the bucket as well as royalties, which was actually quite a significant increase. So those were the ones that stood out. But obviously, we continuously managing our production in a consistent predictable production as well as improvement in grades to help us manage inflation. A –Unidentified Company Representative: Thank you, Jared. We'll hand over to you and Peter in Miami, should there be any further questions...

Peter Steenkamp

Management

But nothing on this side. I don't know if there's anything on the line on Chorus Call store that's potentially coming through.

Jared Hoover

Analyst

We have no further questions on the conference call.

Peter Steenkamp

Management

Yes. And then maybe I could just wrap it up there. If that’s okay, Jared. I just thank you, everybody, for calling in today. It's an odd time for actually South Africa to do it in the afternoon, but it's early morning here. There's a wonderful sunrise here with impending ocean that we witnessed out of our room. But fantastic to have you guys here. Looking forward to come back to South Africa at the end of the week. And yes, thanks again for dialing in. We appreciate that.