Earnings Labs

Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY)

Q4 2025 Earnings Call· Thu, Aug 28, 2025

$15.63

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Transcript

Beyers B. Nel

Management

All right. Good morning, everybody, and thank you for joining us. I'm Beyers Nel, the CEO of Harmony. Today, we are presenting our financial year '25 results that unpack not only our operational and financial performance, but it also details how we are creating value for our shareholders and all our stakeholders. You'll also hear today from our Financial Director, Boipelo Lekubo, who will take you through the financial detail later on in the deck. Before we begin, please take note of our safe harbor statement. We encourage you to read the cautionary language in full. And with that, let's move to the heart of the equity story. FY '25 marks our 10th consecutive year of meeting production guidance. This level of consistency is rare in our sector and is underpinned by responsible stewardship, operational excellence, effective capital allocation and cash certainty. Harmony has delivered a steady performance over the past decade, contributing to investor confidence and long-term trust. Our growth story is built on consistent delivery, higher-quality ore bodies, disciplined cost management, record cash flows and a robust balance sheet. It also sets the stage for a future powered by quality gold and meaningful copper. Our success has been built by keeping safety, sustainability and operational excellence as nonnegotiables. Copper, of course, provides a catalyst to our investment case through MAC Copper, Eva Copper and Wafi-Golpu. This will further enhance the portfolio and improve our quality across commodity cycles. Our success is built on trust and collaboration, and we remain focused on the needs and interests of all our stakeholders. This commitment positions Harmony as a partner of choice where we operate. Harmony has once again delivered a stellar operating and financial set of results. Safety is our priority. And despite the devastating losses in the second half of…

Boipelo Pride Lekubo

Management

Thank you, Beyers, and good morning to you all. Please note all U.S. dollar figures are in their [ measures ]. So FY '25 was another standout year. Net cash on the balance sheet surged by 285% to ZAR 11.1 billion, a clear sign of robust cash generation and operational excellence. As a result, headline earnings per share rose by 26% to ZAR 23.37. The main items which impacted earnings included the ZAR 3.5 billion increase in taxation and a swing of ZAR 500 million on ForEx and silver derivatives. Revenue grew by 20% to ZAR 74 billion from ZAR 61 billion on the back of operational consistency and the higher gold price received. Included in this figure is a ZAR 4.5 billion hedge loss relating to the realized effective portion of the hedge accounted gold derivatives. We continue to hedge up to 30% of our gold production over a rolling 36-month period to protect and lock in margins. This prudent strategy provides financial stability and flexibility during a phase of elevated capital investment. Our hedging table is available in the annexures. Net profit jumped 67% to ZAR 14.6 billion (sic) [ ZAR 15.6 billion ] from ZAR 8.7 billion, while EBITDA increased by 37% to ZAR 26 billion from ZAR 19 billion. Adjusted free cash flow increased by 54% to ZAR 11 billion from ZAR 7.3 billion in FY '24. And headroom has grown from ZAR 12.7 billion last year to ZAR 20.9 billion this past financial year. That is over USD 1.1 billion in available liquidity. This strength comes from our strong cash generation and efficient capital deployment. We are in an excellent position to fund our growth pipeline. It also positions us to act decisively on other potential strategic acquisitions while maintaining a conservative risk profile. We…

Beyers B. Nel

Management

Thank you, Boipelo. In conclusion, as we mark 75 years of Harmony, we do so with pride and our legacy and confidence in our future. We have a globally significant resource base of 136 million ounces in resources and 37 million ounces in Reserves in gold and gold equivalents. Our strategy of producing safe, profitable ounces is clear. We prioritize value over volume and invest in high-grade gold and copper and diversify geographically. This is aimed at protecting and growing shareholder value through responsible growth to the benefit of all our stakeholders. This is Harmony today, a gold mining specialist with a growing copper footprint, a company built on purpose and positioned for the future. We are not just mining ounces. We are discovering, developing and delivering metals that sustain the world and secure the next 75 years of success. Thank you for your trust and support as we continue to mine with purpose. Jared, over to you for any questions.

Jared Coetzer

Management

Thanks, everyone. Good to see so many familiar faces. Welcome. Do you have any questions?

Bruce Williamson

Management

Bruce Williamson, Integral Asset Management. Beyers, after your press release on Monday, I was listening to one of the fund managers on Channel 4 and 2, and being a bit critical saying that he doesn't like to see companies high grading when the gold price is high. And in particular, can you just look at Mponeng where you're going through the East and West blocks that are high grade. And I mean, you can -- stoping crews can only mine what's in front of them. You can't mine resources. Can you just take us through, I mean, how much longer will that grade stay above 11? And you alluded to coming down to 9 on average between the 2 mines, the big ones? Would it be a sudden fall? Or would you gradually bring that grade down?

Beyers B. Nel

Management

Thank you for the question, Bruce. Just Harmony is not high grading. Harmony is mining, particularly at Mponeng in a mining method, which we call the sequential grid mining method. It is actually a very rigid mining front, and it's designed to ensure that mining is done safe and that you don't trigger unnecessary geotechnical events or seismicity. So you're in the reformation. So mining out of sequence or trying to chase high grades would be unsafe to do and also responsible to do. So we -- what we have at Mponeng is we see overperformance on the planned reserve grade. Now how we need to think about Mponeng going forward is that we need to think about Mponeng as at the reserve grade. I mean that is the stated grade. Yes, we've seen positive delta or positive outperformance on the reserve grade. But I mean I can't go and adjust the reserve grade based on proven and techniques that we've always used to evaluate these ore bodies just because I'm for a period having higher grades. So where we're mining today, we still have good grade, and we'll continue to have good grades, but we need to think about it in line with the reserve grade. That's the important thing at those 2 assets. What we do, however, from a grade management point of view, Bruce, is we see grade as a -- grade improvement rather as a little bit of a hedge against cost inflation. So what we don't do is the inverse. We also don't drop our cutoff grades when gold prices are high. Because for those of you that understand the technical aspects is an ounce that you develop today, you only mine in 2 years from today. So if you have these good gold prices and you drop your cutoff grades, you develop into areas that are lower grades. By the time you get there and you have to mine those lower grades, the gold price is maybe different than it is today. So we're trying to keep cutoff grades constant and trying to maintain our grade. And if we then see these areas of overperformance, like in the case of Mponeng, it just gives us that extra little bit of lift against the pressures of cost inflation, of course, with good cost management and cost discipline and cost control.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

[ Tulidi ] from [ Rotary ]. Just 1 quick question for me. Has the opportunity cost with regards to Wafi-Golpu, has the opportunity cost been analyzed, with regards to the delay that's there? Has it been taken into account over the years? I would presume that there were other opportunities available in the interim over the years. Has that been analyzed, the opportunity cost of the delay?

Beyers B. Nel

Management

Yes. Thanks for the question. Great question. I think the opportunity cost on that asset, not only for shareholders and Harmony and managers and stakeholders, but also the Papua New Guinea people has been enormous, the delay in getting that project over the line. But if you look at the macroeconomic environment or the macro context and you look at a scramble for large-scale bulk copper mines at the top end of the ore bodies in the world, there's an absolute scramble and people are paying top dollar for big copper mines going forward. And Wafi-Golpu is one of those. It's a Tier 1 copper-gold bulk block cave mine. That is an exceptionally valuable thing. And the way we think about it, albeit frustrating, the -- getting through the mine development contract and the SML with the Papua New Guinea state negotiating team and the government with our JV partners, Newmont, we believe it is worth the wait. I mean that is a phenomenal ore body. So yes, our management team is working very hard, great alignment between ourselves and Newmont in terms of trying to get that mine development contract and special mining lease over the line. But we are still not there yet, unfortunately.

Arnold Van Graan

Management

Arnold Van Graan from Nedbank. Two questions from my side, if I may. So the first one is on MAC Copper. How does that look under Harmony? And what I mean with that is, are there a lot of operational changes and CapEx changes that you see to get this on spec with the rest of your operations? And then the second question, I mean, you've showed us you still get a meaningful contribution from your optimized assets. But the margins remain fairly low. I think year-on-year, it's down, in fact, despite the changes in the gold price. So my question is, how much flexibility do you have there to maintain that margin and keep that positive should either the operating environment change or the pricing environment?

Beyers B. Nel

Management

Thanks, Arnold. I'll start with MAC. So we haven't got the keys yet. The vote is tomorrow. The way we think about MAC is we will -- once we close the transaction or we're optimistic that we will do, that will be in October. We will spend in November and December, putting MAC through the detailed technical analysis planning process that we've been accustomed to at Harmony. We believe a lot of our operational consistency is as a result of the way we look at the technical aspects at the onset and the planning. So we'll do exactly that if we close in October. And we said that we will, in February, when we do our first half year results, we will update the market on the outlook for MAC Copper for the second half. So at the moment, I mean, there's nothing in the guidance for MAC. We'll spend the latter part of the year going through the planning process and guide in February what we think production would look like. As to some of the technical challenges at the mine, Yes, it's right up our alley. The mine is ventilation constrained and there is some flexibility challenges. There are, from what I've seen excellent plans in terms of mitigating those challenges that MAC Copper is working on. Those plans would actually have to be seen through. But Harmony would take our own view once we've gotten the keys. We -- what you -- when you look at an old mine, you would think that it's a dilapidated mine, it's tired. I've been out to the mine 3 times already. It's actually quite the contrary. The mine is in good nick. I mean credit to the current owners. They've spent significant amount of capital on -- they did a…

Jared Coetzer

Management

Any other questions? Do we have any questions on the Chorus Call?

Operator

Operator

Yes, sir. Question comes from René Hochreiter of NOAH Capital. René Hochreiter: I see on your production profile that you've got on Slide #22. There's a bit of a gap between 2030 and 2035 production gap to keep you at 1.5 million ounces. Is that where you're planning to put MAC Copper to fill that gap? My second question is, could you give us a quick update on Target? I see your guidance for Target is nicely up compared to last year. And then thirdly, the sustainable grade that Bruce asked about, 6.27 grams a tonne that you're managing underground. It comes from Mponeng. Mponeng, I assume you're mining the VCR. The VCR is very channelized. And how long will it take before that 11.72 grams (sic) [ 11.27 grams ] a tonne will come down again to sort of the average of the ore body? Is it going to be like a year or 2 or shorter than that? That's all.

Beyers B. Nel

Management

Thanks, René, for those questions. So I'll address the gap first. No, I mean, the gap is not where MAC will come in. MAC is already in the graph on that slide, CSA Copper, the dark gray in the middle there. But what is important to notice when you look at this grade is that's a production profile. It's not necessarily a value profit or EBITDA profile. I mean the quality of the ounces we'll be mining despite lower production in that period is vastly better because you see how the optimized assets basically taper down. And that is what results in that gap there. Of course, implied in that gap area there is this 6 tonnes to 4 tonnes on Moab Khotsong with the Zaaiplaats project being a little bit later. But on the slide now, you can see how the red, which is high-cost production, is actually tapering down. So it's a production profile and production is important, but certainly value is more important for us. The Target update, yes, the recapitalization is complete. The time for delivery is now. We're starting to see some green shoots there on the infrastructure starting to work. We did suffer a few delays in the second half of the year, which we reported on in this deck. It seems like we're over most of those now. But yes, so Target, we look forward to Target being better. I mean that was a standout mine on the negative. Because it went through the recapitalization, that mine was not positively contributing, and we certainly do look forward to get Target to contribute this year. As to the grade, that's a very difficult question. I try to answer, I can't predict for how long Mponeng will be at 11 grams per tonne, unfortunately, René. Long may it last is obviously good, but we need to think about Mponeng in line with the stated reserve grade. I mean that is what our geostatistical models deliver, and that is what we need to think about it. Yes, we're mining the VCR and why the grades are so good is we're mining 2 half levels on 123 and 126 in the high-grade pay shoot on the east and the west of the mine. So it was always known that we would be in these high-grade areas and mining would eventually mine out of the pay shoot, and that's when grades would be a little bit lower. But again, the grades are being broken and blasted there today are still very strong and still very, very, very good. René Hochreiter: So if I put into my model about 9 grams a tonne in 2 years' time, would that be fair?

Beyers B. Nel

Management

The reserve grade, René, is how we should think about the grade at Mponeng.

Operator

Operator

We have no further questions from the lines. Thank you.

Jared Coetzer

Management

Beyers, I think we're done. Thank you.

Beyers B. Nel

Management

Thank you, everyone.