Earnings Labs

HNI Corporation (HNI)

Q3 2025 Earnings Call· Tue, Oct 28, 2025

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Hello, everyone, and welcome to HNI Corporation Third Quarter Results Conference Call. Please note that this call is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] I'd now like to hand the floor over to Mr. Matt McCall. Please go ahead, sir.

Matthew McCall

Analyst

Good morning. My name is Matt McCall. I'm Vice President, Investor Relations and Corporate Development for HNI Corporation. Thank you for joining us to discuss our third quarter 2025 results. With me today are Jeff Lorenger, Chairman, President and CEO; and VP Berger, Executive Vice President and CFO. Copies of our financial news release and non-GAAP reconciliations are posted on our website. Statements made during this call that are not strictly historical facts are forward-looking statements, which are subject to known and unknown risks. Actual results could differ materially. The financial news release posted on our website includes additional factors that could affect actual results. The corporation assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements made during the call. I'm now pleased to turn the call over to Jeff Lorenger. Jeff?

Jeffrey Lorenger

Analyst · Sidoti & Co

Thanks, Matt. Good morning, and thank you for joining us. I'm going to divide my commentary today into 3 sections. First, I will provide some comments about our third quarter results. Non-GAAP earnings per share increased 7% year-over-year, driven by a record third quarter non-GAAP operating margin. Next, I will discuss our expectations for the fourth quarter of 2025. Our full year earnings outlook is unchanged from what we provided on last quarter's call. We continue to anticipate a fourth consecutive year of double-digit non-GAAP earnings improvement. And finally, I will provide additional detail about recent demand activity and how we see our markets playing out in the fourth quarter and as we move into 2026. Following those highlights, VP will provide additional color around our fourth quarter outlook. He will also comment on the strength of our balance sheet, both currently and what we anticipate after the completion of the pending acquisition of Steelcase. I will conclude with some closing comments, including some additional thoughts on our Steelcase transaction before we open the call to your questions. I'll begin with the third quarter. Our members delivered another strong quarter despite ongoing tariff-driven volatility and continuing macro uncertainty. The positive momentum of our strategies, the benefits of our diversified revenue streams, our focus on items within our control and the merits of our customer-first business model continue to deliver strong shareholder value. For the quarter, we delivered non-GAAP diluted earnings per share of $1.10. EPS grew 7% versus last year, which was modestly ahead of our internal expectations. Total net sales in the third quarter increased 3% organically over the same period a year ago and profit margins in the third quarter were strong. Our non-GAAP operating margin expanded 10 basis points year-over-year to 10.8%. This non-GAAP EBIT margin was…

Vincent Berger

Analyst · Sidoti & Co

Thanks, Jeff. I'll start by discussing our outlook for revenue and profit. Beginning with the top line. Fourth quarter revenue in Workplace Furnishings is expected to increase at a high single-digit rate year-over-year organically. The impact of divestitures is expected to reduce the year-over-year organic revenue growth rate in Workplace Furnishings by a little less than 100 basis points. The benefits of our order and backlog growth, along with an extra week in our fiscal year are expected to drive solid revenue growth in the fourth quarter. For Residential Building Products, fourth quarter net sales are also projected to increase at a high single-digit rate compared to the same period in 2024. Pricing actions are expected to be the primary driver of growth. However, we also [Audio Gap] borrowing capacity will continue to provide us with significant financial flexibility. Moreover, while we expect our initial post-closing net leverage to approximate 2.1x, we continue to project our debt levels will return to our targeted range of 1 to 1.5x within 18 to 24 months of closing. In the meantime, we remain committed of payment of our long-standing dividend and continuing to invest in our business to drive future growth. I'll now turn the call back over to Jeff.

Jeffrey Lorenger

Analyst · Sidoti & Co

Thanks, VP. During the third quarter, we remained financially disciplined, managing the middle of the income statement to drive profit improvement while pursuing revenue growth. As we look forward, several positive secular trends and our HNI-specific initiatives will help offset macro-related risks and continued tariff-driven volatility. We will remain focused, conservative and ready to adjust as required. And as a result, our earnings outlook for the full year is essentially unchanged, and we continue to expect the fourth consecutive year of double-digit non-GAAP EPS growth. This outlook demonstrates the benefits of a stronger-than-expected third quarter, our ongoing visibility story and our proven ability to manage through changing economic conditions. Before we take your questions, I wanted to provide some thoughts on the pending Steelcase acquisition. As we approach the closing, we are excited about the future of bringing together our combined capabilities to create new career growth opportunities for our team members, deliver more value for our customers and dealer networks and further support and invest in the communities in which we operate. The deal is right from a strategic, financial and cyclical perspective, and our 2 companies are highly complementary on many fronts. We currently expect synergies to reach $120 million and ultimate accretion to total $1.20 per share when fully mature, excluding purchase accounting. And as VP highlighted, our anticipated strong free cash flow will help us quickly deleverage our balance sheet. The addition of Steelcase will further strengthen the tenets of the HNI investment thesis, and we are positioned for continued success. We have elevated earnings growth visibility for several years, broad and diverse product and market coverage in Workplace Furnishings, market-leading positions in Residential Building Products, and we continue to invest to drive growth. All this is supported by our strong balance sheet and the ability to generate continued free cash flow. I want to thank each HNI member for their continued dedication and congratulate them on another excellent quarter. We will now open the call to your questions.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Greg Burns of Sidoti & Co.

Gregory Burns

Analyst · Sidoti & Co

That $1.20 of accretion from Steelcase that you just mentioned, is that considering just the synergies that you've already outlined? Or is that...

Vincent Berger

Analyst · Sidoti & Co

Yes, Greg, that's the $120 million that we talked about on the investor call back in August. So that number has not changed. And just the way the share count works, that now converts to about $1.20 in accretion.

Gregory Burns

Analyst · Sidoti & Co

Okay. So that's just your initial outlook, maybe there's potential upside to that if you get your hands around the business and drive additional savings.

Vincent Berger

Analyst · Sidoti & Co

Greg, I think for that -- I think just one comment there. That's a number that we're really confident in. And we're going to use our disciplined integration process. And once we get in there and if there's more, we'll look for more. But that's what we're on record for right now.

Gregory Burns

Analyst · Sidoti & Co

Okay. Great. And then where are you in terms of the $0.75 to $0.80 from KII and Mexico? How much have you gotten so far and what remains?

Vincent Berger

Analyst · Sidoti & Co

Yes. We had said that $45 million to $50 million would be recognized between '25 and '26. We had mentioned kind of splitting it half and half. We're seeing a little bit more come forward of '26 in the last quarter here of '25. So I would tell you, maybe a little bit more in '25 and '26. But I think more importantly, to Jeff's point on visibility, we do see the $45 million to $50 million coming through.

Gregory Burns

Analyst · Sidoti & Co

Okay. And you gave us a lot of data points around kind of some of the positive industry level fundamentals in the office space. We've seen kind of this slow and steady demand improvement happening over the last couple of years, kind of low single-digit growth. But when we think about the -- where the industry is at relative to maybe pre-pandemic levels, I know you've passed along a lot of pricing. Where are we in terms of volume, like relative to maybe where we were pre-pandemic? Like where are we in terms of industry-wide volumes? I'm just trying to get a sense of where we're at in the cycle and maybe what the potential uplift from here could be if we do get a more positive demand environment going forward?

Jeffrey Lorenger

Analyst · Sidoti & Co

Yes, Greg. I think we're probably -- with all the pricing, it's a little tough to say. But I think confidently, we probably are 30% to 35% on the volume side, still down just given pricing actions and tariffs. But -- so that's kind of -- I think as you think about that, that's how we think about the post-COVID kind of cycle and some of these other macro backdrop items starting to turn around. So that's how I think about, that's how we think about, and that's why we're bullish about the space.

Vincent Berger

Analyst · Sidoti & Co

Yes. Even if it returns half that, Greg, you're looking at mid-single-digit volume growth for a significant number of years. So the backdrop is set up, even if it doesn't get back to the 30% more, there's still a lot of volume growth opportunity.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Reuben Garner of Benchmark.

Reuben Garner

Analyst · Reuben Garner of Benchmark

Can we -- can you kind of give us a compare and contrast about your full year guidance? I guess, what's embedded in the fourth quarter now versus maybe how it looked a few months ago? It looks like maybe the top line is a little higher, but there's some more cost in there as well. Can you just kind of give us the breakout of that?

Vincent Berger

Analyst · Reuben Garner of Benchmark

Yes, I can walk you through that, Reuben. Starting with revenue, I think it's probably -- if I look at Workplace and Residential revenue, it's mostly actually in line with prior expectations. Both are expected to be in the fourth quarter, up high single digits with the extra week. So I think where we're seeing a little bit of the pressure is the product mix. When we look at what's come through in backlog and the pipeline, there's more project-driven business and systems. So that's really a timing issue. It draws a little bit lower margin, but on the backside of that comes other business that goes with that with ancillary products that will come probably in Q1. So a little timing there. I think the second part of our Q3 beat is going to be timing of investments. Some of it slid in the fourth quarter or into the fourth quarter, and it's part of that actually saved in the third quarter. So those are going to come back. I think the key there is our second half is still unchanged. So I think you got a little bit going between the 2 quarters. And I think a couple of other things to mention. Jeff mentioned, I mentioned insurance-related pressure year-over-year. That's hitting us on the SG&A side. And I think we probably need to update our tax rates. Our second half tax rate is now at 24.4%. That's about 80 bps higher than we talked about prior in the year that gets us to a full year tax rate of 23%. So when you boil that all together, the back half is really not changing. It's got a little bit of timing and dealing with some onetime expenses.

Reuben Garner

Analyst · Reuben Garner of Benchmark

Okay. That's really helpful. And then on the residential building products side, you guys have definitely outperformed kind of what the end markets have been like so far this year. And I know you've got some investments ongoing there to drive growth. How much runway do you have on that front? I guess maybe to ask it differently, if we're looking at kind of a flattish environment next year, like can you -- do you think you can still grow above and beyond the market on the volume side?

Jeffrey Lorenger

Analyst · Reuben Garner of Benchmark

Yes, Reuben, it's a good question. I think we can. It's all relative to the macro environment, right? I mean -- but we -- I think given the investments we're making, like right now, the new construction business -- I'll give you an example, we're outperforming, for instance, in October, our orders were flat and permits 90 days prior to that were down high single digits, and that's kind of the lag time we've been seeing. So that tells you we believe we can outperform this market. The question is where is the market ultimately going? And your guess is as maybe good as ours, but we definitely we can outperform. We got retail performing well. Our gas inserts are up year-over-year. We've got stoves now going into the big box channel, and that's early innings. Our wholesale business is actually up year-over-year because the operating model is strong in that part of the world to support smaller independent dealers. And just overall investments in our superior service model, our vertical integration and builder intimacy efforts are starting to take shape. So these are in the early innings, but they are bearing some fruit. So we do believe we'll be able to stay ahead of the demand curve, if you will. The question is, where is that macro demand curve and what gap can we put on top of that.

Reuben Garner

Analyst · Reuben Garner of Benchmark

Okay. And I'm going to sneak one more in on the contract business. It seems like some good momentum on that side and the timing of you guys adding Steelcase seems nice. Can you talk about any risks out of the gate as you're integrating the company? And if we did see an acceleration in demand, just kind of what gives you confidence that you'd be able to kind of, I guess, participate in that upswing as you're putting the 2 companies together?

Jeffrey Lorenger

Analyst · Reuben Garner of Benchmark

Yes. That's a great point, Reuben. Let me start with, first of all, we're going to -- there's really no change on the front. Our dealer partnerships are going to remain intact as they are. The brand distribution is going to remain intact. Sales force is intact, both for HNI and Steelcase companies. So I think our approach there will avail us the ability to take advantage of some of those trends because everybody's heads down in that regard. And the cultures are good. We're out of the blocks. And so we're bullish about being able to work on what we need to work on, as we've talked about, cost synergies in some of those areas while keeping the front end of these businesses separate and focused on their unique brand position so that we continue to work to build on those. So we would anticipate being able to participate in any of this as these trends continue to evolve, particularly in some of these larger markets.

Operator

Operator

Question comes from the line of Steven Ramsey of Thompson Research Group.

Brian Biros

Analyst · Thompson Research Group

This is Brian Biros on for Steven.

Jeffrey Lorenger

Analyst · Thompson Research Group

Sure.

Brian Biros

Analyst · Thompson Research Group

On the resi side, I guess, sales were flat. Orders grew 2% and really accelerated at the end of the quarter, it sounds like. So I guess can you just parse out maybe like why orders grew and if there's anything to call out really that drove the acceleration into the quarter end?

Vincent Berger

Analyst · Thompson Research Group

Yes. And are you talking about the resi side or Workplace, Brian, just to make sure I'm...

Brian Biros

Analyst · Thompson Research Group

Sorry, the resi side.

Vincent Berger

Analyst · Thompson Research Group

Yes. Yes. You kind of nailed it. So the -- if you look at orders for the quarter, we're up 2% for the segment. The actual remodel retrofit was up 7%, and it actually was accelerating as we went through the quarter. We actually grew backlog to 13%. So that's given us confidence in the high single digits for the quarter. The backdrop of everything that Jeff just talked about is supporting that, which is allowing us to outpace the market. We're starting to see good signs for a retail season in most of the country outside the West Coast. All those support our high single digits with the extra week. So when we look at that business for the full year, I think it's more important, we're going to grow mid-single digits in a very tough market that didn't grow. And although most of it will be price, we actually are going to show unit volume growth in the fourth quarter and a bit for the full year.

Brian Biros

Analyst · Thompson Research Group

Got it. Helpful. And secondly, I guess, just on the Workplace segment, the opportunity set there, maybe by sector, is there a way to think of how much that reflects return to office compared to non-office verticals?

Jeffrey Lorenger

Analyst · Thompson Research Group

So yes, I think that's -- it's pretty hard to parse that. I think it's some of both. The verticals have been holding up well. You look at education, you look at health care. Obviously, federal government is in kind of in a weird spot right now. But I think the return to office stuff, if I had to say, is probably in the earlier innings definitely than some of the other vertical plays. But we do see some of those verticals as we look out into the future that's still staying strong. But I'd say verticals have been a little stronger than return to office and return to office is just really getting going.

Operator

Operator

I'd now like to hand the call back to Mr. Lorenger for final remarks.

Jeffrey Lorenger

Analyst · Sidoti & Co

Great. Appreciate it. Thanks -- thank you for taking an interest in HNI, and have a great day. Appreciate the time.

Operator

Operator

Thank you so much for attending today's call. You may now disconnect. Goodbye.