Earnings Labs

Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG)

Q2 2020 Earnings Call· Tue, Jul 28, 2020

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the 2020 Second Quarter Earnings Conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today’s conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Mr. Shannon Burns, Director of Investor Relations. Thank you. Please go ahead, sir.

Shannon Burns

Analyst

Good morning, everyone. You can access the slides supporting this call at investor.harley-davidson.com. Click the Earnings Materials box in the center of the page. Our comments will include forward-looking statements that are subject to risks that could cause actual results to be materially different. Those risks include, among others, matters we have noted in our latest earnings release and filings with the SEC. Harley-Davidson disclaims any obligation to update information in this call. Joining me this morning are CEO, Jochen Zeitz; Interim CFO, Darrell Thomas; and COO, Larry Hund, will also be joining for Q&A. Jochen, let’s get started.

Jochen Zeitz

Analyst · Citigroup

Thank you, Shannon, and hello, everyone. We continue to face challenges during these unprecedented times. But as The Rewire is implemented, I’m very pleased with our accomplishments so far. COVID-19 continues to challenge us personally and professionally. Our dedicated workers have returned to our production lines and our priority is keeping everyone safe. We recognize that life and work will be far from normal for as long as the virus poses a significant threat. Recent events have also renewed our commitment to stand up for inclusivity and equality. Through this new reality, our team has put together an extraordinary ways, making significant progress towards the goals of The Rewire in our future success. We are encouraged by the positive feedback from key stakeholders and the early impacts we’re already seeing in the marketplace. I would first like to provide an update on our ongoing actions in response to COVID-19. First and foremost, the health, well-being and strength of our community continues to be at the forefront. We have diligently implemented and are constantly fine tuning our protocol to keep workers safe in our factories. We expect most non-production workers to continue working from home until the end of the year. Second, as I said last quarter, we are executing prudent cost-saving measures and expect to deliver $250 million in cash savings, excluding restructuring charges this year. Additionally, discretionary share repurchases continue to be suspended, and we will pay a Q3 cash dividend of $0.02 per share in line with our Q2 dividend. Third, we have further strengthened our strong liquidity position with nearly $4.7 billion at the end of the quarter. In Q2, we secured an additional $3.3 billion of liquidity. And finally, throughout the second quarter, we provided significant help to ease the burden on dealers and riders by…

Darrell Thomas

Analyst · Citigroup

Thank you, Jochen. The summary of our Q2 results is on Slide 8. Motorcycle segment operating income in Q2 was considerably lower year-over-year, driven primarily by lower shipments, as we suspended global manufacturing during the quarter due to COVID-19. Financial Services operating income was down significantly, driven by further adjustments to our provision for loan losses, in accordance with CECL, as the pandemic persisted. Consequently, consolidated net income was down versus prior year. EPS reflected a loss compared to the second quarter of last year. Based on restructuring actions taken during the second quarter, charges were $42 million and are expected to result in annual ongoing savings of approximately $100 million. On Slide 9, second quarter worldwide retail sales of new Harley-Davidson motorcycles were down 26.6% versus prior year, primarily reflecting significant dealer closures due to COVID-19. As we noted on our Q1 call, at the end of April, nearly 60% of our global dealer network was closed. We saw reopenings begin to occur towards the end of May into early July. And by the end of the quarter, 93% of global dealers have resumed normal operations. U.S. retail sales in Q2 were down 26.7% versus prior year, as most U.S. dealers experienced some level of COVID-related closure or retail sales disruption. EMEA saw a year-over-year decline of 29.8%, down across all markets. Asia Pacific was down 10.2%, driven by declines in Japan and Australia, partially offset by growth in China and South Korea. Latin America saw declines in Mexico and Brazil and finished the quarter down 51%. During the quarter, U.S. market share of new bike registrations was 38.5%, down 8.1 percentage points, driven by the impact of our new approach to supply and inventory management, growth in segments outside of our stronghold segments, increased promotions from our competitors…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question is from James Hardiman of Wedbush.

James Hardiman

Analyst · Wedbush

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. So it’s somewhat of an open-ended question with regards to whatever you’ll give us on the retail front. I’m curious what the momentum was within the quarter? Maybe if you could sort of talk through how the dealers that were actually opened in the quarter did from month-to-month? And then any color on what June looked like? And ultimately, now that we’re almost at the end of July, how July looks like? So, obviously, you have different policies, which of those things you want to touch on, but any color you can give us would be really helpful?

Lawrence Hund

Analyst · Wedbush

Thanks, James. This is Larry Hund. So, if you take a look at sequentially, end of April, we only had about 40% of our dealers open for motorcycle sales. Dealerships then tended to open as we went throughout May. By the end of May, we had about 80% of worldwide dealers open for motorcycle sales and then saw additional openings in June. So that there were – by the end of June, we had about 93% worldwide dealers open for sale. So as you can imagine, sales increased sequentially by month as we went throughout the quarter, obviously, June being the strongest month of the quarter. And then as far as July, I would say, once again, we got most of our dealers open. And I would say, sales are trending as expected, given our new approach to supply demand and inventory management.

James Hardiman

Analyst · Wedbush

And I guess, if I may, just a follow-up to that last point. Trending as expected with a caveat, is the expectation that now that inventories are significantly lower as a result of the new strategy that, to some degree, that has and will continue to limit retail as we move forward?

Lawrence Hund

Analyst · Wedbush

So I think, as Darrell said, we’re not giving updating guidance here. But clearly, I think, the new approach to balancing supply and demand and inventory management will have an impact on retail sales, as we work to create desirability and some of the benefits of that, that we saw as we went through the quarter of benefits to retail pricing, both for new and used motorcycles and benefits for used motorcycle prices at auction.

James Hardiman

Analyst · Wedbush

Excellent. Thanks for the color, guys, and good luck.

Operator

Operator

Your next question is from Shawn Collins of Citigroup.

Shawn Collins

Analyst · Citigroup

Great. Thank you. Hi, guys. Good morning.

Jochen Zeitz

Analyst · Citigroup

Good morning, Shawn.

Shawn Collins

Analyst · Citigroup

I wanted to – thank you. I wanted to ask about the SG&A cost savings. I know you laid out that you’ve got $250 million in cash savings. Can you break that out between the CapEx savings and the annual SG&A savings that are expected, please? Thank you.

Darrell Thomas

Analyst · Citigroup

Yes. Thanks, Shawn, for your question. We’re not going to break that out any further than what we’ve done already, which is basically, we expect that those savings will be made up of SG&A and capital expenditure reductions. And so that’s at this point, all we’re going to say about the $250 million. I will tell you, though, that we are on track to deliver the $250 million that we discussed in Q1. So we’re confident that we’ll be able to deliver that for the full-year, and that is before any restructuring charges that we are going to be taking.

Jochen Zeitz

Analyst · Citigroup

And to add to that, what Darrell said earlier is that, the restructuring charge we took in the second quarter, we expect to deliver $100 million in SG&A savings. So that gives you some indication.

Shawn Collins

Analyst · Citigroup

Okay, that’s great. Very helpful. Thank you very much. I will get back into the queue. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Your next question is from Jaime Katz of Morningstar.

Jaime Katz

Analyst · Morningstar

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I’m curious if you’re willing to give us any insight on the exit of international markets that you’re looking at? If there’s anyway we can maybe think about quantifying what percentage of shipments that might be? Thanks.

Darrell Thomas

Analyst · Morningstar

So I won’t give an exact number. But I would say, that is a relatively small percentage of shipments. If you take a look at it, as we said, we’re focusing really on about 50 roughly primary markets that generate the vast majority of our retail sales and shipments. We are still evaluating, which markets we may choose to exit. But those are markets that generate a relatively modest amount of our sales and a relatively modest amount of our profits.

Jaime Katz

Analyst · Morningstar

Okay. And then I think in the press release, it said the Adventure Touring model was being pushed back. Do you have any comments on the Streetfighter model? I think that was set to come out next year as well?

Jochen Zeitz

Analyst · Morningstar

Yes. At this point, Adventure Touring will be the focus going into next year. As I said earlier, we expect to streamline our product lineup by about 30% in terms of model reduction and color reductions. Other product line-related decisions, we will be revealing in real-time, so it’s not really something we can and want to talk about at this point. But let’s focus on Adventure Touring as an exciting new segment for us going into the New Year.

Jaime Katz

Analyst · Morningstar

Excellent. Thank you so much.

Operator

Operator

Your next question is from Gerrick Johnson of BMO Capital Markets.

Gerrick Johnson

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets

Hi, good morning. I’m not sure you quantified this. So the $100 million in ongoing savings related to current actions. Is that a run rate? Or is that we expect this year? And how much of that is incorporated in the $250 million that you mentioned earlier?

Jochen Zeitz

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets

That is a run rate. But as Darrell said, we are looking as part of the new five-year strategic plan to also reinvest into brand building initiatives. So if you take dollar for dollar, that is correct. At the run rate, but with a caveat that we might want to decide on reinvesting and investing more into brand building initiatives.

Gerrick Johnson

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets

Okay. And, Jochen, a question for you. You mentioned strengthening the H-D culture. In your book manager in a monk, you say that managers should ask themselves this question. Which elements of collective memory should be recognized? What must be brought in and what must be discarded? So how would you answer your own question?

Jochen Zeitz

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets

Well read. Well, look, we have a very dedicated employee on workforce around the world, which is really fantastic. The culture has suffered. The company has seen five consecutive restructurings every year in order to sort of chase the downward trend in sales. That has affected morale and engagement by our team members around the world, which is totally understandable, and that’s the culture we need to revitalize. I see a huge amount of commitment. Obviously, the last couple of weeks have been tough, because we had to let go of over 400 – 500 people. That is a very difficult thing to do and has its effect on morale, too. But overall, I do believe there is an incredible energy and passion for Harley-Davidson to get back on the winning street. And that’s that energy and passion I want to – I’m calling upon by our employees around the world and I’m certain that I will get that and we’re seeing already positive changes despite the difficult environment we are in. Selectively, as I also mentioned earlier, we are bringing in new talent. We have fantastic talent. But in some areas, we we are looking to hire and have already brought in new talent into the company. So we are complementing a strong team with new talent from the outside. And I think that’s about it. A lot of the things that didn’t happen are very much down to the way the company was run, the way the structure – the organization was structured, the way the processes were defined, and that’s why this is a really comprehensive reset and rewire of how Harley-Davidson operates as an – in a newly defined operating model and newly defined processes going forward. And that I think will unlock the power of the team that we have in place going forward.

Gerrick Johnson

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets

Okay. Thank you very much for that.

Operator

Operator

Your next question is from Greg Badishkanian of Wolfe Research.

Fred Wightman

Analyst · Wolfe Research

Hey, guys, good morning. It’s actually Fred Wightman on for Greg. If we just look at the market share figures, particularly in the U.S., I mean, that was down pretty significantly year-over-year, and this is definitely a transition year. But how do you expect share to trend over the next few quarters? And is there any risk that some of that market share erodes permanently?

Lawrence Hund

Analyst · Wolfe Research

So once again, we’re not giving guidance going out. I think, if – as Darrell talked about, right, we – there were really four things that impacted share here in the second quarter, One certainly, growth in segments outside of where H-D – currently, Davidson primarily competes. Fleet sales, if you think about fleet sales, a lot of those tourists come from Europe and that drives a lot of the fleet market. And certainly, that type of travel is with COVID has really been dramatically reduced. So that had a meaningful impact on touring. And then we had, obviously, there was a lot of promotion in the market in the quarter with our whole approach to supply and demand and inventory management, we didn’t do promotion in the U.S. in the quarter. So those were really the big drivers during the quarter. What I would say is that, we think that the positives that came out of our supply, demand, inventory management, with increased pricing at retail for new and used motorcycles with the increased pricing at an auction for used motorcycles in closing that new used price gap in the long-term is a positive for Harley-Davidson. And that that’s going to drive greater results going forward.

Jochen Zeitz

Analyst · Wolfe Research

And if I may add to what Larry said. I think, look at it this way. Share is more meaningful once supply and demand is balanced. And until then, it’s really the desirability of the brand that is more important. And as Larry mentioned, we are not focused simply on volume or share for that matter. We will not oversupply the market. And if you look at the past and what I’ve experienced, if you look at supply and demand or push and a pull model, we want to make sure that demand pulls our sales and not – we’re not pushing products into the market and start promoting our bikes before the season even started. So we are not going to pursue volume at the expense of the right fundamentals of our business, and we will actually define new metrics that will define desirability. And Larry had already alluded to some of them that have improved in the last couple of months.

Fred Wightman

Analyst · Wolfe Research

Okay. Maybe just to follow-up on that last point. I mean, dealer inventories in the U.S. down 17,000 bikes. I mean, where is that versus where you would want it to be ideally and sort of your internal plan?

Lawrence Hund

Analyst · Wolfe Research

So I would say, we were down more. Obviously, as Darrell said, we had plants closed. We were certainly down more at the end of the second quarter. Worldwide inventories were down about 32%. The U.S. was down more than that. So inventory throughout the second quarter was certainly a fair amount lighter than we would like going forward. I won’t give you a specific number, but certainly that, that amount we were down at the end of second quarter fair amount lighter than we would expect and we think is the right measurement for the business. And that has come back as plants have been opened and shipping motorcycles on a regular basis.

Fred Wightman

Analyst · Wolfe Research

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question is from Craig Kennison of Baird.

Craig Kennison

Analyst · Baird

Yes, thanks for taking my question and kudos to Gerrick on a great question as well. My topic is affordability and kind of demographics. With a premium brand like Harley-Davidson, the focus on scarcity value makes sense. But building that next-generation of riders means that affordability is going to be a factor. What can you do to make that first bike more accessible for the next-generation of riders? And is that important?

Jochen Zeitz

Analyst · Baird

Well, I think, affordability has not been a problem in the past. But when your used prices go down and your MSRP goes down, that obviously devalues the value of our bikes, and that’s what needed – needs to be corrected. So when you are making a significant investment into Harley-Davidson product, you want to make sure that your value is preserved and it doesn’t deteriorate from the moment you buy – you put the Harley-Davidson product. So I think affordability is relative. Some have said that we want to be exclusive. No, we don’t want to be exclusive. In fact, we want to be inclusive as a brand, but we want to protect the value of our products for our customers. And that is all built around the desirability, which we are managing with different metrics and as part of the next five-year strategic plan. I think, demographics, we also need to look at who has been buying Harley-Davidson in the past and who do we expect to buy Harley-Davidson in the future? And quite honestly, I think that we’ve had a more – a rather oversimplified view. Harley-Davidson is for those who share our mission and we call it the timeless pursuit of adventure, freedom for the soul, and that is regardless of age. And it’s important to remember that the customer targeting is so much more dynamic than actually looking at age. I’ve heard now so often that our consumer is aging out. Well, I’m aging, as they say, and I feel like riding right now. In fact, I would say, consumers are aging into riding, as they have more free time and resources, especially post this pandemic. And so Harley-Davidson is really more about attitude and emotion than agent demographics. And if you look at the data, that actually does show that people at the age of 30-plus over time age into riding, and that is critical. That is not to say that we will be attracting a lot of teenagers to our brand, that’s just not the focus of our company. But that being said, if you look at engagement or an incidence rate, that’s increased 1.5 times for young adults since 2010. And actually for 50-plus, it has increased over 2 times since 2010. So that’s the positive. And if you look then at sales of used and new bikes together, we’ve actually done really well in the second quarter. And that shows that there’s a huge amount of demand for our product. In 2019 alone, over 500,000 riders have purchased new and used bikes. We tend to focus only on new bikes, I think, that we need to change. So I’d say, affordability by protecting the value of our product, but not certainly by cheapening it and hence, focusing on desirability will be the future. Entry models, we will look into, but I will be talking more about that in our five-year strategic plan.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Brandon Rollé of Northcoast Research. Brandon Rollé: Good morning. My question is on the new rider dynamic you’re seeing in the industry. Could you comment on Riders Academy Registrations or what you’re seeing? It seems like other power sports industries are seeing new riders? Could you comment on that?

Jochen Zeitz

Analyst · Citigroup

Yes. I mean, yes, COVID-19 certainly has sparked interest, especially in the U.S., but also internationally for outdoor activities, and that is visible in positive sales trends, in particular in bicycles and boats and RVs and other outdoor products. Motorcycling in Harley-Davidson, specifically, we believe has and will continue to benefit from this trend. As we said now, taking new and used sales together, we’ve actually seen a slight increase in the second quarter and that has increased as well. In particular, regarding the Riding Academy, I mean, we’ve added two new programs to – with experience to ride and learn to ride. And we actually expect all of our classes to be full for the rest of the year. So we’ve seen a significant increase in our Riding Academy classes at our U.S. dealerships. And in the long run – in the long-term, we believe that an increased interest in outdoor power sport activities, including motorcycles, should then also have a positive effect on Harley-Davidson going forward.

Operator

Operator

Your next question is from Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley.

Adam Jonas

Analyst · Morgan Stanley

Thanks very much. The question just asked was what I was going to ask. But I wanted to pivot to just, Jochen, how are you seeing morale in the company right now? You’re being refreshingly open with some of the degradation in the company and how it’s hit the culture. But as you’ve been able to reach much, much deeper into the management of the dealers to the line workers, any anecdotes, thoughts, moods, you want to share as the company kind of comes out of this dark period and kind of maybe can transition from anxiety to some hope?

Jochen Zeitz

Analyst · Morgan Stanley

Now that is a great and very important question. Let me say this. From my perspective, management has been, how should I say, removed too much, removed from business and from culture, and that is something that needs to change dramatically. And if I meet a Managing Director of a relatively important country, and that person has not spoken to 15 years – for 15 years to senior management, there is a problem, right? So, first of all, we have to make sure that decision-making happens where it needs to happen. And that’s what I tried to say in my speech early on. We need to delegate responsibility out to those who know how to make the right decisions within a clearly defined framework. So that doesn’t mean that we just delegate. It means that those who know best that run the countries, that run the region should be having a clear framework within which they can make decisions, and don’t have to wait for leadership to ultimately micromanage in markets. That’s not going to happen going forward. I think that will have a significant effect on morale. Obviously, as I said earlier, it’s been a tough couple of weeks, having to let go so many of your colleagues is very tough. And it’s certainly not helping morale. But I do believe based on the feedback I’ve received that there is a general understanding that this is not a cost-cutting exercise. This is really about setting the company up for long-term success. It’s making sure that we have the right operating model, the right people in the right place with the right processes, so that we will make the right decisions and become faster, less complex and more focused. And that’s essentially what the focus was. The side effect –…

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Sharon Zackfia of William Blair.

Sharon Zackfia

Analyst · William Blair

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking the question. On the $75 million year-over-year decline in SG&A, could you help us understand what, if anything, and there was unusual related to the coronavirus disruptions versus something that might be more ongoing and structurally lower? And then, on the HDFS originations, I think, they’re actually higher than the total company’s revenues. Did you do something different as related to the used financing within the quarter?

Darrell Thomas

Analyst · William Blair

All right. Thanks, Sharon. So on the first part of the question on the SG&A side, there is nothing that is necessarily unique from a COVID point of view, except for the fact that people aren’t in the office and therefore, they’re not spending to the same extent that they would be otherwise. And obviously, we’ve put a hiring freeze in place and that helped drive down the SG&A that you’re seeing. So the $76 million is really part of the promise that we made with respect to its $250 million commitment. And it’s just coming through all lines of SG&A. We’re not traveling. We’re not spending money. We had a hiring freeze. There’s nothing unique or – to COVID that I could point to. So with respect to HDFS, yes, their performance was better, and it was driven by used. However, there were no promotions. I think, it all goes back to the supply and inventory strategies that we’ve been taken that we’ve talked about already, that are basically creating a demand for used bikes that are being sold through our dealers. HDFS is well positioned to finance those bikes. And as you can see, their performance was stronger than the motorcycle segment. So, again, it’s all part of the whole supply and inventory management process. And we’re seeing it play out at HDFS through strong originations of use. There was no promotions, nothing special about financing use, except for those where the opportunities were.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Tim Conder of Wells Fargo Securities.

Timothy Conder

Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities

Thank you. Jochen, if I may, one for you and one for Larry or whoever wants to take this. On the new use spread, can you kind of just give us a reference point where that was at the end of Q2 versus a year-over-year basis and maybe a long-term average? So it’s maybe for Larry. And then, Jochen, looking at the part of The Rewire, are you looking in anyway at changing, especially in North America the replenishment, profiling regional areas of dealers and maybe changing what their stocking basis and how that’s replenished as part of The Rewire or The Hardwire, maybe program?

Lawrence Hund

Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities

Okay. So on the new use spread, obviously, there’s a lot more used motorcycles in the market than new. But it’s probably about a one-third, two-third split, roughly, third new – maybe two-thirds used.

Timothy Conder

Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities

I guess, Larry, from the pricing differentials, because that narrows obviously back to if you have better value for the consumer, it holds the value better. It doesn’t depreciate right out of the dealer floor as much that precipitates this long-term value interest in the brand, what you guys are talking about? So yes.

Lawrence Hund

Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities

We saw – it was probably – I’ll give you two things on that. We saw used pricing increase about 6% throughout the quarter, certainly, higher than we’ve seen in any previous quarter for a good while. If you look at the options, we probably saw, as you went through the quarter, not for the entire quarter, but if you went – as you went through the quarter as auctions kind of opened up back in May and June, we saw that comparable bikes were going for roughly about 10% more than they were previously sold. So hopefully, that gives you a couple of benchmarks in the way of used pricing solidified in the second quarter.

Timothy Conder

Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities

And then just sort of where that is versus a long-term or where you want it?

Lawrence Hund

Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities

Obviously, anything that closes that gap is good. Certainly, I think that those are levels that we haven’t seen in quite a while, Tim. So I think that we think that’s a lot of momentum in the right direction. Obviously, if it closes more, that would be great. I don’t think we have a benchmark on that. We clearly think that, that having that gap be less is a good thing as far as Jochen said, as far as used motorcycles retaining their value and a customer feeling like if they buy a new motorcycle, the depreciation curve isn’t going to be as steep as it was in the past.

Jochen Zeitz

Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities

And, Tim, to your other question. As I said, balancing supply demand and healthy inventory levels is key, and that applies to the U.S., it applies to all other markets around the world, because we have quite a dense dealer network in the United States, in particular, that is – has even more importance. And hence, there’s a lot of focus on our new SD&I management process, as we call it now. So inventory management will sit with the commercial function and the responsibility will sit with a commercial function. And hence, that is something that has actually changed. Inventory management was, in the past, our responsibility and accountability, we’re not with the people that ultimately called on the inventory. That’s the problem that we needed to fix. In terms of replenishment, yes, of course, that automatically has an effect on how we will replenish. But I think there are also some other factors that we should bear in mind. And that is – that we also want to make sure that inventories are right throughout the network. And that it means that if some dealers have too much of one model or product, that they also start trading among each other. So unlocking trade among dealers, I think, it’s something that will also help to improve our inventory overall throughout the network. And what we also don’t want to do is have our dealers compete with each other on price. As I said, price promotions and discounting have to be reduced and will be significantly reduced, and that doesn’t only apply to us. But we hope certainly, that by doing the right things with rewire and our five-year strategic plan that our dealers will follow suit and stop competing with themselves. From time to time if they think it’s needed and rather focus on our competition than looking at our fellow dealers as competitors. I think that’s something that we also need to address and they actually need to address going forward.

Operator

Operator

Your next question is from David MacGregor of Longbow Research.

Colton West

Analyst · Longbow Research

Hi, good morning. It’s Colton West on for David. Thanks for taking my question. Are you guys still planning to move forward with the small displacement bike in Asia? And if so, can you give us an update on the progress there?

Jochen Zeitz

Analyst · Longbow Research

As I said, we would like to reveal our products much closer to actual launch. And whether and when we are going to launch specific product is not something that I would like to elaborate on right now. We will provide further detail in the fourth quarter. At this point, there’s really nothing new to say about that.

Operator

Operator

Your next question is from Joseph Spak of RBC Capital Markets.

Joseph Spak

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets

Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Two questions. One, I was wondering if you could give us an update or a sense of how much plant or I guess line consolidation can occur, as you get your capacity to align with your new go for review of the company’s opportunity, maybe how that compares to 2019 levels? And then secondly, it looks like U.S. inventories down maybe 40% or so year-over-year, but there were some reports that, I think, you want to lower maybe 65%. So do you still plan to under ship in the back-half?

Jochen Zeitz

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets

Are you referring to a manufacturing capacity, or are you referring to our motor side?

Joseph Spak

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets

Yes, sorry. Manufacturing capacity, yes?

Jochen Zeitz

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets

Well, we have adjusted our manufacturing capacity to our expected volumes going forward with all the uncertainties, obviously, that surround the pandemic, but we have taken necessary measures to align our manufacturing capacity. So I think we are pretty much set, assuming that what we see in the foreseeable future are quantities that we’ll realize, but we have taken, I would say, realistic conservative approach.

Lawrence Hund

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets

And, Joseph, the second part of your question as far as shipping in the second-half of the year, as Darrell said, we’re not providing guidance. But I think there are some things you should consider as far as your forecasts are concerned, combination of factors that are going to impact shipments, ultimately, revenue in the back-half of the year. Most significantly, as we said in the call, retiming of our new model year delivery to early Q1 from historically that’s been late August, right? So that is going to have certainly an impact on both shipments and retail sales as far as the timing of that is concerned. I’d say, as we’ve mentioned several times on the call, our new approach to supply and inventory management, in line with demand to drive value and desirability, that’s going to continue through the rest of the year and then into next year. And then we did mention, we are looking at exiting certain markets, smaller volume things like that. And we’ll probably have some continued dealership closures throughout the rest of the year, so in the back-half. So that will probably have an impact as well. And then finally, just, there’s the uncertainty of COVID-19 potential additional disruptions, that hard to predict at the moment, but that could certainly have an impact. So hopefully, that gives you some direction, I guess, as to things that could influence shipments during the back-half of the year.

Operator

Operator

Your final question comes from Felicia Hendrix of Barclays.

Felicia Hendrix

Analyst · Barclays

Hi, good morning. And Jochen for – as a final question, it’s kind of big picture. So you’ve unveiled a broad and sweeping program. But stepping back, if you had to prioritize the top three issues that Harley had, what would they be? And what do you think the customer wants that Harley is not delivering?

Jochen Zeitz

Analyst · Barclays

Well, I’m afraid three is not enough. So I will have to ask you to go back to everything I said. I think everything that is part of the playbook is really important. And I wouldn’t want to highlight anything other than maybe say that without a proper operating model and without the right people in place, the right organizational structure, you can’t succeed. So I think that, that complete and move forward now focusing on other areas of The Rewire, which we’ve already addressed and already have taken significant action, but more to come until the end of the year. We give customers what they want. I would say, we do. We have extraordinary product and we have more product in the pipeline. But the complexity of our product offering has just been quite substantial and sometimes it’s even hard to know what product is worth and that complexity, I think, might even be for some customers a bit confusing at times, especially for those who come into the brand and would like to buy a new bike. That is not a huge problem, but it’s certainly something that makes our lives from a product development and investment point of view more difficult. And that’s also one of the reasons why we don’t want to just launch into every category at once, but want to be very focused on the ones that are true to Harley that our customers are looking for and that are not too much of a brand stretch. You can’t be everything for everybody. We are an extraordinary and desirable brand. But that doesn’t mean that we ever want to become everything for everybody. So that desirability needs to be retained and needs to be reflected in the products we offer and the categories we launch ourselves into if they are not part of the offering today.

Operator

Operator

Shannon Burns

Analyst

All right. That wraps up our questions for today. Thank you, everyone, for joining us, and hope you have an outstanding day.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today’s conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.