Dave Anderson
Analyst · Morgan Stanley
Thanks everybody for participating this morning. Let’s go to slide number four and let me start by giving you a summary recap of what Dave just covered before going into the business segments, then talking more about the outlook for the rest of the year. As we said, sales and as the release states sales were up 11% in the quarter, 8% organic growth which includes 3% benefit from foreign exchange as you know we always break out for you those details. Sales came in at about $200 better in the quarter than we guided driven by foreign exchange and also very strong performance from UOP. As Dave said we continue to benefit from the global reach of Honeywell. About two thirds of the revenue growth that we experienced in the first quarter came from outside the United States. Segment profit was up nicely $170 million or 16% versus last years segment margin improved 60 basis points to 14%. Net income up 22% in the quarter with favorable segment profit, pension expense partially offset by higher interest expense and importantly that repositioning of over $103 million in the quarter. As we did throughout 2007 we are going to continue to take the opportunity to execute on attractive repositioning projects which will benefit us for the remainder of 2008 and particularly for 2009 and beyond. The strong profit performance in the quarter and well as the benefit of lower share count drove earnings per share up an impressive 30% to $0.85, again, $0.02 above the high end of the range that we communicated and again includes over $100 million of elective repositioning actions in the quarter. In a tougher environment we continue to execute very well and position ourselves for the future. We remain confident in our EPS outlook for the year. Free cash flow finally, on this slide was up $110 million or 25% to $571 million importantly another strong indication of operational excellence in our operational discipline. Working capital turns continue to improve and are up again in the quarter. Our free cash flow performance represents almost 90% conversion and is around two points higher in terms of conversion in the same period last year and supports our full year outlook for the $3.2 to $3.4 billion in free cash flow that we’ve given you for the quarter. In summary, a terrific start to ’08 and as Dave said we feel confident in the outlook for the year, we are raising our sales guidance, we are also tightening our EPS range at the high end of our previous range taking that now to $3.70 to $3.80. Let’s now go through each of the segments starting with Aerospace on slide number five. As you can see Aerospace segment sales were up 7%, segment profit was up 13%, importantly margins expanded 100 basis points to 18.6%. Total commercial sales for Aero up 8% in the quarter, Commercial OE was up 8% driven by continuing strong OE demand to support production of both new Air Transport and Business Jets. On the Air Transport side, Air Transport and regional OE sales were up 11%, BGA, Business and General Aviation OE sales were up 3% in the quarter and for BGA mainly due to timing of shipments in a tough comparison to ’07 where Business Jet OE sales were up 12%. The outlook for Business Jets continues to remain robust supported by the increasingly global nature of the industry. This is an interesting statistic; many of you know this, but worthwhile noting. International buyers now count for about 50% versus just 25% in 2003 just five years ago of the new aircraft deliveries that are projected over the next five years. This data is really consistent with our annual business aviation outlook that we publish NBAA survey that we published September of 2007. It really shows the purchase expectations that are up in Asia, Middle East, but also the continued rise in expectations in Europe. On the commercial aftermarket side for Aero sales were up 8% the ATR aftermarket sales were up 6% in line with expectations and by the way, also in line with global flying hours which were up approximately 7% in the first quarter. The B&GA aftermarket sales were up a very robust 11% driven by increased revenues on our maintenance service agreements, higher engine utilization and also the sales of spare parts. Defense and space sales for Aero were up 5% in the quarter due primarily to the contribution of Dimensions International and also strong performance in surface systems which the Tiger program and then also space benefiting from the Orion program. On the margin side, Aero again very strong performance up 100 basis points. Price and productivity more than offset inflation in the quarter. Again, a great quarter for Aero and as Dave mentioned it’s a business that continues to build a very strong base for the future, we are very very proud of the wins at Airbus, Gulfstream and Embraer in the quarter really positions us very well. For the full year 2008 we are reaffirming Aerospace sales in the range of $12.8 to $13 billion up 5% to 7%, margins in the 18.7% to 19% range so up 70 to 100 basis points over the full year of 2007. Now let’s go to slide six and talk about another very positive story in the quarter which is ACS. You can see sales for ACS up 14% and 8% organic including 5% from FX represents ACS’s 12th consecutive quarter of double digit revenue growth. Importantly, we had balance growth in the quarter between products and solutions as you can see from the slide and I’m going to take you through a little more detail there and orders trends continue to be positive across both these businesses. For Products, revenues were up 14% driven by growth at Life Safety and also Environmental and Combustion Controls and significant growth in China, India and the Middle East where we continue to benefit from the investments and increased presence that we have in these regions. As expected, we continue to see softness in the North American residential markets, that’s an ongoing story, part of our planning, part of our bottom of guidance, ECC and Security particularly. We also saw evidence as expected of slowing in Europe in these same end markets. On the Solutions side, again 14% up in revenues in the quarter. The Process business was particularly strong with double digit organic growth in Americas, Europe, as well as Asia. Our Building Solutions business saw continued growth in North America and Asia. However, they did see some softness in Europe due primarily to timing of projects and we expect that to come back to us in the second quarter. Again, importantly order rates continue to be strong for Solutions up 13% in the quarter. Overall ACS sales were up low single digits in the US, mid single digits in the Europe and over 20% in the emerging regions when adjusted for acquisitions. It really speaks to the continuation of the strength, the broad base and positioning that we have in ACS. Another good story in the quarter for ACS was the impressive 20% increase in segment profit, 50 basis points increase in margin to 10.3%, productivity and pricing were particularly strong showing the good progress the ACS team is making there. Dilution from acquisitions importantly were in line with our expectations, 50 basis points of dilution in the quarter so on an organic basis we actually had 100 basis point of margin expansion in ACS in the first quarter. For the full year we are raising our revenue guidance for ACS by $500 million to the rage of $13.8 to $14 billion, we are correcting primarily the impact of the Norcross acquisition announced but obviously not yet closed. We are assuming a second quarter close, and the benefit of some incremental foreign exchange. Despite the margin dilution caused by Norcross we are maintaining our segment margin guidance for the segment at 11.6% to 11.9% up 30 to 60 basis points from 2007. Now let’s go to Transportation Systems. The story at TS continues to be a contrast between the Turbo business which continues overall strong and the continued softness that we seeing in the Consumer Products Group. I’ll give you a little more color on that in a moment. Overall, as you can see, TS sales were up 6% in the quarter driven by a 12% increase at Turbo and a decrease of 3% at CPG. At Turbo we saw a nice rebound as we expected in commercial vehicle segment and we continue to focus on the flawless platform launches in our passenger vehicle business. We saw some softness develop in the European production rates for passenger vehicles in the quarter; you probably saw some of the press there was flat production in Europe. However, the positive was continued increase in diesel penetration in fact diesel penetration was up two points to 52% in the first quarter of ’07 to 54% this year. We also saw in the quarter some select OEM delays in new platform launches which will now be pushed out to 2009. This is another data point to support our expectations for a moderating European economic environment. However, we remain bullish on the outlook for Turbo overall and we see the platform delays which are relatively modest it’s only a minor impact to ’08 and of course positive for 2009. In CPG we continue to face headwinds in the US automotive after market. Volumes were down literally across the product lines as high gas prices and low consumer confidence continue to weigh on discretionary spending and the do it yourself after market channel. Segment profit in the quarter was down 4% for TS overall, margins were down 130 basis points to 11.7% really reflecting the CPG volume decline, inflation impacts and also the investments that we continue to make in Turbo product development to support future platform launches. For the full year ’08 we are maintaining our sales guidance for Transportation at $5.1 to $5.2 billion up 1% to 3% over ’07. However, we are lowering our expectations for margins by 50 basis points and we now expect something in the range for TS of 11.8% to 12.1% for the full year up about 20 to 50 basis points reflecting again primarily the CPG softness but also reflecting some additional softness in terms of European economy. Slide eight highlights Specialty Materials, an absolutely terrific quarter for SM. Sales were up 18%, segment profit as you can see increased an impressive 38% driving a 280 basis point improvement in segment margins. This is a slide we’d like to continue to look at and focus on. Not surprisingly UOP had a great quarter sales growth of 23% compared to the prior year. UOP just continues to experience very strong demand for its proprietary technologies for both refining and petro-chemical markets. Results in the quarter were particularly strong due to the timing of catalysts and absorbents sales as well as for both new as well as reload applications. You’ll recall and we’ll talk more about this in terms of the outlook for SM and UOP but we do experience variability in the quarters and we would expect some of this to be actually pull forward from the remainder of ’08 for UOP. Importantly for SM we also saw strength in the other businesses. While we highlight UOP, Fluorine Products were up 12% due to favorable pricing actions, Resins and Chemicals up 24% driven by continued strong demand for [inaudible] but also the impact of higher raw materials which has a one for one for us in terms of top line because of our formula pricing. As discussed, segment margins for TS very strong, increased 280 basis points obviously the favorable UOP volumes, high mix of catalysts and absorbents in the quarter, importantly also productivity and pricing actions by the business. The full year now 2008 we are raising SM sales guidance slightly to $5.1 to $5.2 billion up approximately 5% to 7% over last year and we are estimating segment margins to be in the 14.1% to 14.4% range up 60 to 90 basis points reflecting mix impacts and also the flow through of higher raw material costs which again given the formula pricing really is a one for one in terms of cost as well as top line. With that recap of the businesses let’s discuss a little bit now our perspective on the quarter and then the outlook for 2Q and the full year. Let’s go to slide number nine entitled Key Market Assumptions. This is exactly the same slide we showed you on our outlook call last December and again at our investor meeting in February. It’s really a summary slide but it’s subsidive because it reflects the in depth bottom up analysis that we did in terms of our key markets and the assumptions that we’ve used to develop our 2008 plans. The key assumptions here remain in tact. Continued strong performance at Aerospace, selected softening in the developed markets as ACS, continued robust demand in the emerging markets for ACS, passenger vehicle Turbo performance correlated to the European economy but with diesel penetration trends continuing positive. Commercial vehicle Turbo’s strengthening particularly rebounding off of 2007 and again UOP continuing to be quite strong in ’08. That’s just a stay setter and it’s great to think that six months after we actually pulled this slide together and about four months after we delivered it to you we look at it today and it’s in tact. Let’s go to the next slide, slide number 10. Just as we did at the investor day in February we are showing our business segments on the left hand side and on the right side we are showing our actual first quarter sales. Whereas the prior slide showed you the overall outlook for the markets we serve this in fact is the key assumptions in terms of actual and outlook for revenues for the company by major segment. You’ll note that the full year numbers do no include the incremental impact of 2008 acquisitions; this is the same numbers we showed you in February. For example, it doesn’t include the Norcross benefit or foreign exchange benefit but it’s meant to give you some insight to how we are tracking versus the outlook that we communicated previously. Let’s just take down a few of the key points. Aerospace performance in line with our expectations. ACS as you can see the Developed Markets are consistent with our view of a stronger first half versus the second half of 2008. Also on the ACS Developed Markets some benefits obviously in terms of foreign exchange, greater foreign exchange benefit in that first quarter. ACS Emerging Markets driven by continued strength in China, India and the Middle East. As I indicated we had reported revenue increases in those emerging markets for ACS over 20% in the first quarter. You can see, in fact, shown here ACS Emerging Markets up 33%. PV, Passenger Vehicle Turbo benefiting from foreign exchange but again an outlook consistent with our view of a weaker second half for Europe in auto production. The Commercial Vehicle rebound as expected and then finally UOP off to a terrific start primarily reflecting the timing of catalysts sales in the quarter. Overall we think that the first quarter performance sets up very well for the full year and again gives us confidence in achievability of our full year performance guidance. Let’s now go to the next slide which is the 2Q08 Preview. We expect total sales in the second quarter to be approximately $9.2 billion up 8% versus ’07 and EPS to be in the range of $0.92 to $0.94 up 18% to 21%. You can see the highlights there in terms of each of the business segments in terms of revenues. Aero we anticipate to be around $3.2 billion in sales up approximately 6% and again the themes are strong business aviation growth, flight hour growth and in line with our assumptions for the full year 2008 after market expectations of flying hours of around 5%. For ACS we expect revenues of about $3.4 billion in the quarter an increase of 12% and another quarter of balanced growth between products and solutions for ACS. At Transportation Systems we expect revenues of about $1.3 billion up 4% but similar trends to what we saw in the first quarter. In other words, continued growth at Turbo despite lower production rate expectations for European autos and CPG will continue to be challenged by soft end market conditions. Finally for 2Q for SM for Specialty Materials, we anticipate sales of about $1.3 billion up 7% driven by growth across all of the businesses. Overall for the company again reflecting our well diversified and balanced portfolio which is helping us to drive overall strong results for the quarter. With that now let’s go to the 2008 Financial Summary on slide number 12. We are reaffirming our full year expectations here raising our revenues by $700 million approximately to $36.8 to $37.4 billion. You’ll recall previous guidance for revenues in the 4% to 6% range increased for the year we are now expecting in the range of 6% to 8% reflecting primarily the contribution of Norcross and the positive impact of foreign exchange. We would not expect for the planning standpoint we are using about 145 Euro to Dollar relationship versus the 140 that we’d used previously. We are also reaffirming our margin expectations for the year at 14% to 14.3% representing a 50 to 80 basis point increase over ’07 that translates to a 10% to 15% increase in segment profitability to about $5.1 to $5.3 billion for the year. As Dave mentioned previously we are reaffirming our EPS guidance for the full year at $3.70 to $3.80 which is at the high end of our previously communicated range and represents a 17% to 21% increase for the year. Finally, as I stated previously $3.2 to $3.4 billion of free cash flow for the year. In summary, we feel pretty good, looking at slide number 13, about performance for the first quarter, we had obviously some tougher economic conditions but we executed very well, we delivered a strong start to the year. It’s really a reflection of, we talk about the planning disciplines, it’s also really a reflection of the operating disciplines, the execution focus, the cost focus in each of our businesses, really attributed to the leadership team of Honeywell. We also took the opportunity, this is just incredibly important, to launch $100 million of repositioning in the quarter. As in the past and as we’ve shared with you a very disciplined process for the review and the vetting of these projects and we are looking at attractive paybacks that will support our full year outlook and particularly benefit ’09 and ’10. The major contract wins in the quarter for Aero giving us significant runway and breadth and positive outlook for future periods. Really testimony to the strength of the technologies but also what Rob and his team have done in terms of customer facing and customer responsiveness of the organization. We continue to pursue HOS and FT initiatives; we are targeting more than 100 sites for HOS or roughly 70% of our manufacturing costs to be under HOS implementation by the end of ’08. Our functional costs are targeted to be down around 5.3% of sales in total by the end of the year that’s a reduction from a level of almost 8% in 2004. We are clearly seeing the benefits of Velocity Product Development as we continue to grow faster and the markets we serve due partly to the success of new product and productions. Again, reaffirming our EPS guidance at the high end of the range and remaining committed to the performance track record that we’ve been building over the last five years. In summary, we feel very confident about our plans to deliver our EPS guidance and very confident about the outlook for the remainder of the year. With that Murray I’ll turn it over to you for Q&A.