Marie Myers
Analyst · Goldman Sachs
Thank you, Antonio, and good afternoon, everyone. We delivered another strong quarter, reflecting accelerating demand for AI and solid networking momentum, together with disciplined execution across the company. The demand environment remains robust as orders continue to outpace revenue. Investment in AI infrastructure is increasing at a rapid pace with enterprise spending focused on agentic AI workloads and AI inferencing. Importantly, this opportunity is broadening across use cases, customer verticals and geographies, reinforcing the value of HPE's expanded portfolio and our ability to provide customers with integrated solutions across the enterprise technology stack. We remain focused on executing against strong customer demand navigating a dynamic supply environment, managing mix and input costs while driving operating leverage. This discipline is reflected in our financial performance, supporting durable, profitable growth in fiscal 2026 and 2027. Let me walk you through the results. Revenue of $12.2 billion increased 34%, exceeding the high end of our guidance range with order growth up 42% on a normalized basis, led by demand in traditional servers, AI systems and networking. Gross margin exceeded 40% driven by disciplined pricing in traditional servers and increased networking mix. Going forward, we expect our gross margin to moderate toward more historical levels driven by the growth in AI systems and the normalization in traditional servers, offset by the growing mix of networking. Operating expense was up 17% sequentially due to higher variable compensation reflecting our record financial results. We expect operating expense to decrease in FY '27 as variable compensation normalizes, and we see continued benefit from Catalyst transformation efficiencies and Juniper integration synergies. Operating profit was $2 billion, up nearly 40% sequentially. Operating margin of 16.2% expanded by 290 basis points sequentially, driven by gross margin expansion and operating leverage. EPS was $1.11, well above the high end of our guidance. GAAP EPS was $1.06. We delivered Q3 free cash flow of $958 million, driven by strong operating profit as well as collections. Now let's turn to our segment results. Networking revenue of $2.9 billion was up 10% on a normalized basis, consistent with our outlook. Orders increased 36%, about 3.5x faster than revenue. Order growth was broad-based across the portfolio, led by AI infrastructure-related investments in data center switching and routing, and strong demand for self-driving networks in Campus & Branch. Networks for AI demand accelerated in Q3, with orders reaching a new high of $700 million, up triple digits. Our portfolio and competitive position in scale-up, scale-out and scale-across strengthened by the recent launch of our direct liquid cooled Tomahawk 6-based switch and our differentiated PTX and MX routing portfolio. Our pipeline continues to increase with further acceleration expected as we bring the Helios platform to market. We expect networks for AI to be a meaningful growth engine for the company. Cumulative networks for AI orders were $2.2 billion, surpassing our FY '26 target. As a result, we are increasing our year-end target to $2.5 billion to $3 billion. To meet this order growth, we have more than doubled our networking purchase commitments quarter-over-quarter. Within networking, Campus & Branch revenue grew 8% on a normalized basis. Routing revenue growth accelerated to 23% as we benefit from increasing demand for our on- and off-ramp AI network infrastructure. Security grew 12%, while data center networking revenue declined 6% due to shipment timing driven by supply constraints. Order momentum was much stronger across most product categories with data center switching and routing up high double digits and Campus & Branch up low teens. We remain focused on improving order conversions to drive faster top line growth and greater scale. Across customer verticals, enterprise revenue grew 12% and service provider grew 5% on a normalized basis. Enterprise growth was driven by strong demand from large global accounts prioritizing network modernization across Campus & Branch and data center switching. Networking operating margin of 22% was in line with guidance, reflecting disciplined execution and the early realization of Juniper synergies, partially offset by higher variable compensation. Moving to Cloud & AI. We delivered fiscal Q3 revenue of $9 billion, up 25%, exceeding our outlook, reflecting strength in traditional servers as higher average selling prices drove server revenue to an all-time high. Our disciplined pricing and increased scale drove operating profit above $1.5 billion. We were pleased to see operating profit growth accelerate, up 61% sequentially and triple digits year-over-year. Operating margin of 17% was up 460 basis points sequentially, demonstrating our ability to scale our business profitably. Server revenue growth of 35% accelerated sequentially as strong ASP growth in traditional servers offset supply-constrained unit volumes. Orders increased strong double digits year-over-year, reflecting robust demand from large enterprise, sovereign and cloud providers. Our supplier agreements now multiyear, in some cases, ensure us the capacity allocations we need to reduce lead times, improve our backlog conversion and drive higher new order growth, supported by our historically highest level of purchase commitments. We see enterprises increasingly moving from AI pilots to production deployments using traditional servers for agentic AI workloads and inferencing. Examples include a global financial services firm, leveraging AI for market analytics and trading insights and a large retail customer deploying on-prem agentic AI workloads to lower public cloud AI token costs. As evidence of this strong growth, we are pleased to report that after quarter end, HPE was awarded a multibillion-dollar server deal with a hyperscaler customer specifically designed for inferencing, supporting our view that demand for inferencing and agentic AI workloads is building. AI systems orders of $2.4 billion increased over 30% sequentially, reflecting broad-based demand across customer segments. Enterprise demand more than doubled, reflecting increasing overall infrastructure spending as AI initiatives have become Board-level priorities. Our AI Systems backlog increased 14% sequentially to a new high, and our pipeline remains multiples of our backlog. AI Systems revenue for the quarter was almost $1.6 billion. We expect AI Systems revenue to improve sequentially in Q4 given timing of backlog conversion. Storage revenue increased 10%, driven by strong order growth with higher ASPs and a favorable mix shift towards higher-value owned IP and private cloud. PCAI orders increased triple digits in Q3 as customers are adopting our AI factory platform to support agentic AI and inferencing initiatives. Alletra MP orders and revenue increased strong double digits year-over-year. We see robust growth potential for our X10000 object and file system, broadening our AI solutions portfolio to address the rapidly expanding unstructured data market. And finally, Financial Service revenue was roughly flat year-over-year, and the business continued to generate a return on equity exceeding 20%. Turning to our integration and transformation initiatives. We are making strong progress in building a more efficient company as we are running ahead of plan on multiple projects to lower our cost of sales and operating expenses. Juniper synergies capture remains on track to achieve our $600 million annual run rate savings target by the end of FY '28, with integration costs tracking better than planned. Last quarter, we highlighted the growing contribution of AI-enabled process simplification within Catalyst. Since then, we have expanded both our AI and operational simplification efforts across the enterprise. HPE is now deploying an internal agentic AI platform built on our own private cloud AI, open source and open-weight models, leveraging intelligent routing that sends each workload request to the most cost-effective AI model. According to our own internal analysis, our PCAI offering can reduce token costs versus the public cloud by up to 60%. Routine tasks stay on-premise while frontier models are reserved for the most complex work. Moving to cash. We delivered operating cash flow of $1.6 billion. Free cash flow totaled $958 million in Q3. As a result, we are raising our free cash flow target to at least $3.75 billion for FY '26. Our cash conversion cycle improved by 1 day from Q2, driven primarily by a decrease in days receivable due to more favorable billings linearity within the quarter, along with stronger collections. This was offset by an increase in days of inventory due to higher purchases in anticipation of future shipments. Inventory ended the quarter at $11.8 billion, up year-over-year and sequentially, reflecting higher commodity costs and targeted purchases to support increased orders and increased backlog. In Q3, we returned $324 million to common shareholders, including $189 million in common dividends and $135 million via share repurchases. We received gross proceeds of approximately $1.4 billion after closing our H3C transactions and used cash on hand to retire our term loan. Consequently, we exited Q3 with a net leverage ratio of 1.8x, below our target of 2x. We completed the sale of our Telco Solutions business last month and intend to retire $1.25 billion of notes maturing later this month. We plan to return at least 75% of our free cash flow to shareholders in Q4. Turning to guidance. We are increasing our outlook on the strength of our Q3 results and confidence in the durability in demand. We expect Q4 revenue to be between $13.9 billion and $14.8 billion, reflecting continued strong demand across both segments. We expect networking revenue to grow 11% to 13%, driven by order strength and improved supply chain conversion. We expect networking operating margin to improve modestly quarter-over-quarter driven by top line growth and Juniper synergies. In Cloud & AI, we expect revenue to grow 60% to 72%, reflecting sustained demand, higher ASPs in traditional servers and greater AI revenue conversion. We expect operating margin to moderate sequentially to a mid-teens rate. We expect Q4 total operating expenses to decrease sequentially by a low single digit due to lower variable compensation expense and increased Catalyst transformation efficiencies and Juniper synergy capture. We expect our operating margin rate to decline sequentially driven primarily by a higher mix of AI systems in Cloud & AI and pricing. As a result, we expect EPS between $1.20 and $1.30, a GAAP EPS between $1.12 and $1.22. Based on our Q3 results and Q4 outlook, we are raising our FY '26 EPS guidance range to $3.75 to $3.85. We are also raising our GAAP EPS range to $2.93 to $3.03. We now expect FY '26 free cash flow of at least $3.75 billion. Given the demand strength and sizable backlog we saw at the end of Q3, combined with some large deals we signed post quarter close, we are updating our fiscal '27 framework and now expect consolidated revenues to grow 13% to 17%. Networking revenue growth of 14% to 17%. Cloud & AI revenue growth of 14% to 18%. Company operating profit growth of 14% to 18%. Company operating margin of 14% to 15%, supported by a modest decline in operating expense. Networking operating margin in the mid- to high 20% range. Cloud & AI operating margin of approximately 13%. EPS of $4.40 to $4.60, which implies growth of 16% to 20% versus the midpoint of our FY '26 EPS outlook and free cash flow of at least $5 billion. Importantly, this framework builds on our higher FY '26 guidance, pointing to a significant improvement in our fiscal 2027 outlook. In closing, Q3 was an exceptional quarter for HPE. We generated strong financial results, raised our fiscal '26 and fiscal '27 commitments and achieved our leverage target more than a year ahead of our original plan. Demand remains ahead of revenue, and our backlog is a record, and our Juniper integration and Catalyst initiatives are delivering ahead of our FY '26 plan. As we head into the final quarter of fiscal '26 and look ahead to fiscal '27, we are executing from a position of strength, with durable demand, strong margins and the operational discipline to sustain both. With that, I'll turn the call back to the operator to begin Q&A.