Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Third Quarter 2022 HP Inc. Earnings Conference Call. My name is Josh, and I'll be your conference moderator for today's call. At this time, all participants will be in listen-only mode. We will be facilitating a question-and-answer session toward the end of the conference. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes. I would now like to turn the call over to Orit Keinan-Nahon, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to HP's first quarter 2022 earnings conference call. With me today are Enrique Lores, HP's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Marie Myers, HP's Chief Financial Officer. Before handing the call over to Enrique, let me remind you that this call is a webcast, and a replay will be available on our website shortly after the call for approximately one year. We posted the earnings release and accompanying slide presentation on our Investor Relations web page at investor.hp.com. As always, elements of this presentation are forward-looking and are based on our best view of the world and our businesses as we see them today. For more detailed information, please see disclaimers in the earnings materials relating to forward-looking statements that involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions. For a discussion of some of these risks, uncertainties and assumptions, please refer to HP's SEC reports, including our most recent Form 10-K and Form 10-Q. HP assumes no obligation and does not intend to update any such forward-looking statements. We also note that the financial information discussed on this call reflects estimates based on information available now and could differ materially from the amounts ultimately reported in HP's Form 10-Q for the fiscal quarter ended July 31, 2022, and HP's other SEC filings. During this webcast, unless otherwise specifically noted, all comparisons are year-over-year comparisons with the corresponding year-ago period. For financial information that has been expressed on a non-GAAP basis, we've included reconciliations to the comparable GAAP information. Please refer to the tables and slide presentation accompanying today's earnings release for those reconciliations. With that, I would like to turn the call over to Enrique.

Thank you, Orit, and thanks to everyone who is joining the call today. As part of our earnings today, we will cover three important themes. First, we will talk about the unexpected and very abrupt shift in the macroeconomic environment and how this is challenging our overall business in the short term. Second, we will enumerate the decisive actions we are taking in response to this macroeconomic challenge, including continued progress in our structural cost reduction programs while we continue prioritizing our investments in growth areas. Third, we will convey that our confidence in the medium- and longer-term prospects of our markets and growth drivers remains intact. We are firmly committed to our strategy for sustainable, profitable growth over the long-term and disciplined capital return to shareholders. First, regarding the macroeconomic environment, like many companies, we are managing through some challenging market conditions with a focus on what we can control. Inflation increased in many parts of the world, and this led to lower consumer spending for our product categories. And demand in Europe worsened against the backdrop of the Russia-Ukraine war. Although we highlighted pockets of consumer softness during our Q2 call, the environment deteriorated more rapidly late in the third quarter. The strength of our commercial business, particularly in the enterprise, helped us to partially offset declines in consumer demand. Still, the fact that we remain supply constrained did not allow us to fully rebalance. As a result, our net revenue was $14.7 billion in the quarter. That's down 4% nominally and 2% in constant currency year-over-year. Despite this, we were still able to deliver non-GAAP EPS of $1.04 in line with our previously provided outlook. This reflects our very disciplined cost management and pricing strategy as well as our continued ability to shift more of our portfolio…

Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. As Enrique mentioned, our Q3 results were impacted by macroeconomic challenges, including a significant slowdown in consumer demand in our categories: inflation, currency and geopolitical challenges. We took swift actions across the levers within our control to help address these headwinds, focusing on rigorous financial management in both our costs and our investments across our businesses. In addition, we are executing on our strategy and returning significant amounts of capital to shareholders. Disciplined financial management, particularly OpEx and cost management, is core to our DNA at HP, and we are confident in our ability to navigate adeptly in up and down market conditions. Furthermore, we continue to realize structural cost savings from our transformation program and see additional opportunities to drive significant cost reductions ahead of us. Despite these recent challenges, we remain confident in both our end markets and strategy to drive the long-term value creation. With that, let's take a closer look at the details of the quarter. Net revenue was $14.7 billion in the quarter, down 4% nominally and 2% in constant currency. Approximately 2 points or half of the decline was due to the change in estimated sales and marketing incentives benefit in our prior year results. Gross margin was 19.8% in the quarter, down 2.4 points year-on-year, driven by the change in estimated incentives benefit in the prior year and currency. Non-GAAP operating expenses were $1.5 billion or 10.3% of revenue, down 20% year-on-year. In Q3, we installed further rigor in our cost management. We reduced our OpEx spend by over $370 million year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter by prioritizing our variable spend in R&D and marketing aligned with our growth categories. Lower variable compensation given the more challenging business environment was also a key driver. At the same time, we…

[Operator Instructions] And our first question today will be from Erik Woodring with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

I guess maybe one for you, Enrique, and then one for you, Marie. Just on the pricing side, Enrique, maybe can you just give us a little more detail on the pricing actions you're taking and really in respect to kind of balancing or the challenge of balancing kind of softening demand with U.S. dollar strength and what that means for international sales. And if you could just specify again across Personal Systems and Print, that would be super. And then I have a follow-up.

Sure. Thank you, Erik. So I think that overall this quarter and similar to what we have done in the previous quarter, the team has done a very nice job managing pricing. If we look at year-on-year compares, we continue to see benefit of pricing, which is really driven by this. What we're starting to see is some erosion quarter-on-quarter, driven by both the increase in competitiveness that we see but also by the fact that, especially in PC, we see a high channel inventory. So, we expect that the pricing situation is going to become more aggressive, especially as we enter in Q4. From a currency perspective, traditionally, we have been very effective managing currency and pricing it. Again, depends also on what the competitive situation is and what the channel inventory is. So we may not be able to fully price it, but traditionally, this has been one of the key things that we have done over time.

Super. And then maybe, Marie, just a quick clarification question regarding Poly. Is the low single-digit sequential increase in fiscal 4Q revenue that you're talking about, is that overall revenue? And does that include the two months of Poly? And do we think about including that in Personal Systems for now? Are you thinking about re-segmenting? Just any color that you could provide there would be super helpful.

Sure, Erik. So maybe I'll just start out by clarifying Poly. So for now, Poly will be in our Personal Systems external reporting going forward. And in terms of Poly, just a point of clarification, the guide actually just comprehends the last two months of Poly. So going forward, we do expect Poly to be accretive to our non-GAAP EPS. And in terms of the $0.05 headwind, there's a combination of both macro headwinds in there and plus debt-related expenses and integration costs. But net-net, Erik, it's roughly in line with our expectations. And just a point to follow up on Enrique's comments on currency, we do actually see a 3-point headwind in Q4 as well.

Let me share kind of the excitement that we have about the announcement we made yesterday. We think that the acquisition of Poly positions us very strongly as a leader in hybrid work. We see tremendous opportunity to add value, to innovate and to differentiate ourselves. So, we're really eager to start working with the Poly/HP team to start bringing new solutions to market and really expand that business.

Your next question comes from Toni Sacconaghi with Bernstein. Your line is open.

I'm wondering if you can just comment on the state of your backlog in the Personal Systems group. I think going into the quarter, you had anticipated not being able to reduce backlog because it was elevated. And I'm wondering whether backlog changed over the course of the quarter and whether you expect backlog to be at normal levels by changed over the course of I have a follow-up, please.

Thank you, Toni. I'll take that one. So backlog reduced during the quarter. As we had talked before, majority of the backlog was on the commercial side. And given the supply chain improvements that we had that we were expecting, we were able to clear some of it. We are entering Q4 still with more elevated backlog than normal, but it's lower than what we had at the beginning of the quarter.

And do you expect to be at normal levels at the end of the fourth quarter? And maybe I'll ask my second question with -- at this point as well. Supplies was down 9%. That feels extremely abrupt, change from kind of the minus 3% level that you were at before. Was there any meaningful level of supplies channel inventory change? And I think you said you anticipated supplies being down double digits for the next few quarters. How do we know that there's not something structural akin to what we saw a couple of years ago happening with supplies? And why shouldn't we be worried about a pronounced negative mix shift, given supplies are higher margin than hardware, that once hardware goes back to kind of normalized pricing levels, printing margins could actually be below your trend?

Sure. So let me answer first the question on backlog. Our current plan is that we should be able to clear that during Q4, of course, depends on both how demand and supply able, but this is a plan that we have at this stage. And really, thinking about the question on supply because I -- this is really something that I wanted to clarify. The situation that we see today is radically different from what we saw in 2019. The slowdown that we have seen is driven by a reduction in demand especially in consumer, which is driven by the macroeconomic situation, very similar to what we are seeing in consumer PCs. If I look at the business fundamentals like share, they are behaving as expected. And even if channel inventory is slightly high, again driven by the slowdown we have seen in demand, overall channel inventory dollars are down year-on-year. So therefore, we see this as temporary. It's similar to other economic slowdowns that we have seen in the past and the speed of decline has been similar. But long term, we continue to project that supplies will decline in low to mid-single digits. And based on how we have designed the strategy of the Company, we don't need supplies to grow to meet our profit goals. And maybe one silver lining that I would like to share is something that we have seen through this quarter and that has confirmed the importance of the strategy is that subscription models are significantly more resilient than the traditional model, which really reinforces the need to continue to shift the business towards that model.

Your next question comes from Shannon Cross with Credit Suisse. Your line is open.

I was wondering sort of a follow-up to that. Can you talk a bit about the subscription business in maybe more detail? I'm just wondering percent of revenue or growth you've seen. Also, anything you can talk about with Print+ in terms of regaining share from the aftermarket? And then I have a follow-up.

Sure. And Shannon, it's great to hear your voice again. So talking about Instant Ink, it continues to grow double digit, both revenue and net new subscribers so all this is doing really well. And really, this is driven by the fact that the value proposition to consumers is better than the traditional model. Cost of printing is lower. It is more convenient because they get consumables at home. And on top of that, it's more sustainable, which is really becoming, every time, more important. We continue to see growth in that space, and you are going to continue to shift the business in that direction. And as we have discussed in the past, we continue to see this as a platform to sell additional subscription programs. And as we shared a few months ago, we have example, the pilot of paper subscription in the U.S., and we are seeing good traction and good progress. So very, very good progress there. In terms of HP+, penetration continues to grow. We announced a new system on the laser side this quarter that had very strong reception. And as we have shared in the script, when we look at the combination of HP+ plus Big Ink and Big Toner, the combination of both is more than 50%, 5-0, of our hardware shipment this quarter. So this talks about the progress that we continue to make in that space; and this is really important, as we have said before, to rebalance profitability between hardware and supplies.

Okay. And then you're basically about 16% -- I'm sorry, I'm echoing, one second. You're basically at about $16 billion for your cash return to shareholders. I'm curious as to how you're thinking about it, given the potential pressure on free cash flow, given the PC business slowdown. What we should think about in terms of your commitment to share repurchase and I mean, obviously, dividend growth over the coming year or two?

Sure. So for the rest of the year, we have shared that we are going to be exceeding the plan that we explained about three years ago to returning $16 billion of capital, so we will be above that plan. In terms of going forward, we don't foresee any changes in our capital allocation strategy. We are going to continue to execute the model that we have been sharing or the framework that we have been sharing during the last year. First of all, we think that for us, it's important to stay investment-grade credit rating. For us to be there, we need to be in a leverage ratio between 1.5 and 2, which is where we are now. And once we are in that range, our plan is to continue to return 100% of free cash flow to investors, either in dividend or in share buyback unless an M&A opportunity with a better return shows up. This is what we have been doing during the last quarter, and this continues to be the plan going forward.

Your next question comes from Sidney Ho with Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.

Last quarter, you had expected strength in the commercial PC for the rest of fiscal '22. Obviously, things have changed. It seems like third quarter commercial revenue did decline but better than consumer. When did you start seeing signs of demand weakness? Any color on how the quarter progress would be great? And do you have a view when you will start seeing some stabilization in that market? Then I have a follow-up.

Sure, thank you. So let me explain what we have seen on the commercial side, which is a little bit more complex than on the consumer side. But I think the influencing factors are the same. I mean, really how the macro situation has evolved and the implications of -- especially of inflation and the -- and companies in general becoming more cautious as they manage that investment. So what we are seeing is that from one side, companies continue to open significant deals because they see the need to improve the experience of their employees as they come to the office. Feedback that we get constantly from our customers is that the employees have now better systems to work from home than to work in the office, so they need to invest in the equipment in the office to convince them to come back to the office. And this is really creating a lot of opportunities and the funnel of opportunities that we see is very significant, significantly above what we need to make our sales targets. But at the same time, what we are seeing is once we win those deals, the conversion of those deals into orders has slowed down, which really reflects the fact that enterprises are being more cautious in how they manage their budgets for any new employees that are hired. And this is having an impact. This had an impact in Q3 of orders in the commercial space. Additionally to this, we also saw, at the end of the quarter, a reduction in sell-out, especially in the more transactional commercial categories, those that are closer to the consumer business. And this is what we are projecting is going to continue into Q4. And this was one of the elements that Marie commented that we are using in our guide because we have seen the slowdown in the commercial category.

Okay, that's helpful. My follow-up question is I want to get an update on your growth area initiatives. You kind of talked about the various businesses there. But you already had $5.6 billion of revenue in the first half of fiscal '22, so reaching $10 billion target doesn't seem to be a stretch. But can you talk about what you expect half over half in the second half of the fiscal year? Especially interested in your comments on gaming, given what we've been hearing about the weakness there, but also how does the full year target change with the inclusion of Poly?

Okay. So let me start from the end. When we talk about being above $10 billion, we are not including the additional revenue coming from Poly. We were not planning to close the deal in Q4 and the target was without them. So what we have seen for the category is continue of the overall categories' double-digit growth. And I -- let me refresh what these categories are because the consumer subscriptions, is workforce solutions. It is gaming. It is industrial print. It is industrial print and 3D and is peripheral. So all these categories overall are growing double digit. Of course, some of them are growing slower than others. In this quarter, we saw slower performance of gaming than what we had seen in the past, which was a combination of demand and some supply constraints that we were expecting, but we expect it to recover in Q4. So overall, very strong performance of the growth businesses that is really critical for us because this is -- they will continue to contribute to the overall growth of the Company even in a more relevant way going forward.

Your next question comes from Wamsi Mohan with Bank of America. Your line is open.

Enrique, I was wondering if you might be willing to share some thoughts on the PC industry outlook overall for calendar '22? I think industry analysts are forecasting roughly 300 million. We heard one of your large competitors talk about a number that's lower. Our own work is showing something even lower than that. And any early thoughts into calendar '23, particularly as we stand here because there's a lot of concern about things reverting to sort of pre-COVID levels, given the dynamics that happened during COVID. And I have a follow-up.

Sure. So, our current projection is similar to what you were describing. We see the market somewhere in between 290 million to 300 million units. This is what we are using for our plan. This is in June. We continue to see more growth from the premium categories. So from a revenue perspective, the market is proportionally bigger from that perspective. This is still significantly higher than what we -- than where we were pre COVID. And we think that the fundamentals of the business have not changed from the perspective that PCs are way more relevant now than they were three years ago. If you think about hybrid work, for example, which is where we think the majority of the companies are going to be working, if you think how majority of the companies are going to be working. If you think about telehealth, if you think about how students are using PCs today, all these are drivers of growth for PC. We see that the slowdown we are going through in consumer and potentially in commercial is driven by macro, is not driven by preferences for PCs or whether PCs are more useful or not. We continue to believe they are critical. And so, we remain optimistic about the future of PCs even if we think we are going to go through this temporary headwind driven by the macro situation.

Any thoughts on '23 there? And as a follow-up, can you talk about the state of the channel in terms of inventory? You clearly noted a more aggressive pricing environment. How worried should investors be about any potential write-downs that you might have to take? And do you expect the PC print profit mix to revert back to the 75%-25% as we look over the next few years?

So in terms of '23, at this stage, since we think that the major impact is macro, it's really hard to predict what is going to be the evolution on the macro side. And this is why we highlighted that we -- given that macro we cannot control, we are taking all the necessary actions in the Company to manage it through the next quarter because we think the difficult macro situation is going to continue. In terms of guide for fiscal year '23, we will be providing it at the end of -- during our Q4 call, and then this is the plan to share kind of how do we see the different businesses performing. And then in terms of channel, and these were like three follow-ups in the follow-up, we see, as I mentioned, high inventory in the channel. We are going to be managing it down through the different quarters, and we have this built into the guide that Marie shared with all of you.

And what just said, so just a point of clarification on the inventory. So it's certainly on the PS side of the house that in Print hardware, actually, we're in good shape, given the current supply chain position. And also, just to add a comment to Enrique's comments about the PS profit mix and how to think about the rates, et cetera, I mean, we do expect, however, for PS to stay in those long-term ranges. So if you think about the acquisition of -- we just did here of Poly, I think that's a good example of how we see these growth businesses that have higher gross margins really playing into the mix going forward as well.

Your next question comes from Samik Chatterjee with JPMorgan. Your line is open.

I guess if I can start with the PS segment. You've talked today about primarily the sort of consumer weakness that you're seeing, but you still expect the mix to sort of move towards the higher end there in terms of the high-end consumer, premium consumer remaining strong. I'm just wondering, what are you seeing in terms of price elasticity from consumers? Why shouldn't we sort of be a bit more concerned that maybe the next step is for consumers to start to trade down a bit and sort of the mixing to start to move down a bit? If you can share your thoughts around that and then I have a follow-up.

Yes. Let me share our view on that. What we are seeing in consumer is a shift towards more premium category because we think that the traditional buyer of the premium category is less impacted by the macro situation that we see. As inflation has grown, as energy prices have increased in many parts of the world, as food prices have increased, families with lower income, families with lower budgets have a bigger impact. And they usually or traditionally buy lower price PCs versus families with higher impact. And we think this is really one of the key drivers of the change of mix that we are seeing.

Okay. And a quick follow-up for Marie here. Marie, I'm just looking at the cash flow, updated cash flow guidance and the change in the cash flow seems a bit more pronounced than the change in the earnings outlook, particularly as if I walk through sort of the EPS changes on the share count. It just looks like the cash flow is coming down a lot more. If you can just walk me through the big sort of buckets in terms of the cash flow guidance change.

Yes. No, we expect our cash flow is largely in line with our net earnings. Obviously, there's some differences quarter-to-quarter on working capital. But just in terms of how to think about cash flow and the guide and what we see as some of the drivers for Q4, firstly, I'd say, look, we've got plans to improve our working capital sequentially. And we're seeing that just in terms of the lower inventory levels. You would have seen that in Q3. We expect operationally to take additional actions going into Q4. I'd say we also, in this last quarter in Q3, we did have some timing impacts around other assets and higher accounts receivable from our contract manufacturers, which caused that AR to be collected in early Q4. This was caused by component receipts and delays to us. So therefore, those month three shipments to our CMs were late. Now we do also continue to expect to see some sequential improvement in PS volumes. As you know, PS is a negative cash conversion cycle so that will be a tailwind. So based on these factors, I'm confident in our free cash flow outlook of 3.5 to 4 for HP for the year.

Next question comes from Ananda Baruah with Loop Capital. Your line is open.

Enrique, in your comments, you talked about sort of ASP declines becoming a bit stronger as you move through the quarter. And it also sounds like the commercial order slowing or sort of protracting is just on the front end. And so I guess the question is, should we anticipate the fundamentals become a bit more challenging post the [indiscernible] over quarter, if even just in the near term. And then I have a quick follow-up as well.

So we are not guiding next year. And we expect that channel inventory will be corrected or will be partially corrected at least during Q4. But as we entered in Q4, we expect this more aggressive pricing dynamics. When we look at the channel inventory of the industry, this is not an HP particular situation, channel inventories are high. And therefore, we expect to see competition be more aggressive on pricing. This is -- we are not going to be the drivers of that. We will only respond if we see the need to manage our sell-out. But we expect to see prices more -- pricing more aggressive as we enter in Q4.

And another, just to add in the -- I'm just going to add that our chrome shipments fall off, so in terms of the compares, so that was a tailwind obviously for Q3, which won't be repeated in Q4.

Helpful. And then a quick follow-up is the transformation plan that you're going to be talking to us about 90 days, would we be -- I'm just trying to get a sense of how incremental it is. And I guess the way I'll ask the question is, would we be hearing of you guys -- in 90 days, would you be describing to us some actions that you'd be taking or some plan if you weren't seeing the incremental macro impact currently?

Yes. I think what, in any case, no matter what the macro is, we need to continue to improve the efficiency of the Company. And the investments that we have done during the last years in IT and in digital systems will allow us to continue to do going forward. So what you will see from us is this plan that will show what are the investments that we are going to be making, what are the returns that we expect to see over time, but a big part of it is be driven by digital, leveraging from the work that has been done during the last years.

Your next question comes from Jim Suva with Citigroup. Your line is open.

Thank you. Enrique and Marie, when you mentioned about pricing and margins to kind of -- I'm sorry, margins to come down a little bit lower, I remember pre COVID, it was 3.5% to 5.5% operating margins for PS, and I think you took it from 5% to 7%. Are you kind of saying now we should kind of start to model in getting back to the 3.5% to 5.5% range? Or are you talking about kind of the lower end of the 5% to 7% range? I'm just kind of wondering about have we structurally moved higher or is it actually with more supply, going to go back to the 3.5% to 5.5% range?

Jim, it's Marie. So we absolutely remain committed to our long-term ranges for PS that we gave at our Security Analyst Meeting. I think the point of clarification is just what we're expecting to see in Q4, where we do expect to be at the lower end of the range based on a lot of what you've heard on the call today. Plus also remember that Q4 is typically our consumer holiday season where you'll see obviously a slightly different mix from a pricing perspective. So overall, Jim, we're not changing our ranges and we're staying on track for our long-term range.

And just a reminder, Jim, what we said is we expected to see within the 5% to 7% range. We were already expecting margins for PC to go down as we shared that range. But we also were expecting the new businesses, peripherals and services, to grow in relevance to growing mix to compensate for the decline. These were the model that we had a year ago, continues to be the plan. We just need to see how this manages now as we face this new and unexpected economic headwind. Okay. So I think we are at the end of the time. Thank you all for joining us today and for spending the last hour with us. I would like to make a few comments. Clearly, during the quarter, even if we faced significant economic challenges, we delivered solid EPS growth of 4%, and we continue to return capital to shareholders, in this case, was $1.3 billion. We are taking clear actions to mitigate the near-term macro headwinds that we are facing while we continue to drive progress and execute on our long-term growth strategy. Because as we always say, this, as every other, is an opportunity to further strengthen the Company and to continue to build a stronger HP. Thank you.

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.