Earnings Labs

Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL)

Q1 2016 Earnings Call· Tue, Feb 16, 2016

$21.26

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Transcript

Jon Feeney

Management

Good morning everyone. Once again, I’m Jon Feeney, CAGNY Conference Co-Chair. And once again, I have the pleasure of introducing Jeff Ettinger, Chairman and CEO, Hormel Foods. But first, I’d like to take this opportunity to thank Hormel for hosting lunch today, featuring many of their leading branded retail and foodservice items, that’ll be immediately after this presentation. Hormel was nice enough to move up their strong earnings release this morning for this presentation, which you probably saw this morning, just like they’ve been nice enough to lead the industry in returns for the past 15 years and to grow dividends every year for the past 50. For 125 years, they’ve been the protein Company everyone else would like to be. And through the recent acquisitions like Skippy and Muscle Milk, they’re very quickly becoming the food and CPG company everyone would like to be. Today, their CFO, Jody Feragen will cover the highlights of their earnings in lieu of an earnings call first, while both Jeff and recently named President and COO, Jim Snee will follow up and focus on their long-term strategic efforts, of course followed by your questions. So, Jody, welcome. Thank you, and take it away.

Jody Feragen

Management

Thank you, Jon for that introduction. Before we get started this morning, I need to remind you that certain statements will be forward-looking and they are based on current conditions. And I would refer you to the risk factors in our 2015 annual report. Additionally, 2015 results are non-GAAP numbers that exclude certain adjustments and those too are detailed in the annual report and also in the back of the presentation deck that you received when you walked in today. As Jon said, we did wait to deliver our record quarter for this morning, $0.43 per share, our 11th consecutive quarter of record earnings. And we were pleased that four of our five business segment contributed to the growth. Now, sales were down 4% due to lower pork markets as well as the turkey harvest supply issues that we’ll talk about later. You’ll note that the earnings per share and all the earnings per share numbers in the presentation have been adjusted for the two-for-one stock split that our shareholders approved on January 26th and became effective on February 9th. So, taking a look at the segments, Grocery Products segment operating profit was up 26%, really benefitting from improved operational and supply chain efficiencies. In the first quarter of 2015, we rationalized our plant in Stockton, California and moved that production into other facilities. So, they’re seeing a nice benefit from that and they’re also winning with favorable raw material costs. Sales were down 4%, as we saw some softness in the canned meats area but we were really pleased with the results of our HORMEL bacon toppings, our CHI-CHI foods products and our Wholly Guacamole items. Refrigerated Foods had an outstanding quarter, segment profit up 65%. And really, it was great improvement -- a great performance across all our…

Jeff Ettinger

Operator

It’s our pleasure to be with you this morning to be able to share what was an outstanding quarter for Hormel Foods, and to be back at CAGNY after a few year hiatus and what you know what we’ve been up to and what our priorities are going forward in terms of our brands and our team. As Jon was nice enough to mention, we’re also hosting the lunch. So, we don’t have a formal Q&A session after this but we’ll all be available including others of our team during the lunch to take any additional questions you might have. One of the questions you could ask anybody in there is what does 5 and 10 mean to Hormel Foods. 5 and 10 have been our consistent goals within our corporation for the past 10 years, what we strive to achieve 5% revenue growth each year and 10% earnings or operating income growth. These are among the most aggressive goals within the food industry and even in our past presentations here at CAGNY that Jody and I have done, you should have consistently seen that these were our goals at those sessions as well. Importantly, we’ve really done a nice job at achieving those aggressive goals. Our track record over the past five years on the topline is indeed at that 5% rate. We’re now a $9.3 billion Company. And in area of earnings, we’ve actually been able to exceed our 10% goal with the 12% CAGR capping out last year. What I want to share with you is kind of how we’ve done that and a little bit of our thinking behind some of the decisions we’ve made that have led to these types of results. We’ve grown our Company on a topline basis and certainly significant profit contributions…

Jim Snee

Analyst

Thank you, Jeff. First, since this presentation is doubling as our first quarter earnings call, I’d like to take this opportunity to update all of you on our outlook for the rest of 2016. And during our fourth quarter conference call, we set our 2016 earnings per share guidance at $1.43 to a $1.48 per share. And those numbers are adjusted for the recent stock split. Now, while sales growth will continue to be challenged, as we navigate lower pork markets and the reduced turkey volumes at Jennie-O, especially through the first half of the year, we do expect our earnings to continue to be favorable. And our strong earnings performance in the first quarter led by Refrigerated Foods, Grocery Products, Specialty Foods as well as improvements in our Jennie-O Turkey segment, as we recover from the turkey supply pressures, has given us the confidence to raise our guidance for the full year to $1.50 to $1.56 per share. And that represents a 14% to 18% increase over 2015. Now, while the Jennie-O Turkey Store business is still recovering from the impact of avian influenza last year, production volumes are expected to return to more normalized volumes by the end of the second quarter. And that will position them for strong growth in the back half of the year. Now, this expectation for normalized production volumes does assume that we do not have any new outbreaks of avian influenza in our operations, which are located in Minnesota, and Wisconsin. We look for continued favorable input cost for our Grocery Products and Refrigerated Foods segment. Refrigerated Foods will also benefit from strong pork operating margins. However, we do expect those pork operating margins to moderate as the year progresses. Specialty Foods should continue to benefit from an improved mix of higher…

Q - Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Thanks for taking the question. So, congratulations on another great quarter. Can you talk a little bit about M&A? Obviously your returns have been above and beyond any of your peers but your balance sheet is still under-levered; you mentioned $3 billion in dry powder. The last three deals on average have added I think 4% to your earnings growth on average. What do you expect M&A to add to your growth algorithm going forward?

Jeff Ettinger

Operator

We talk about 5% and 10% but we’ve said that that’s inclusive of M&A. I think over maybe a 10-year timeframe, the M&A is in more like 1 to 1.5 of the 5. Over the last five years, it’s been a little bit more robust as we have done some bigger deals. We clearly have the financial wherewithal to tackle more acquisitions. We’ve talked in the past and if you look at even the recent ones, some are corporate properties, so SKIPPY came from a corporation; Lloyds. From time to time companies are changing their portfolio. And we will certainly look at items within those portfolios that makes sense to Hormel. But a number of our more successful acquisitions have been family-owned business that frankly we try to establish a relationship over many years with a hope that at some point if that family has made the decision to sell the business that we might be a preferred buyer. We certainly have a number of hooks in the water and keep looking for the things. We know we can handle financially, we also know we can handle in terms of the capacity of our Company to integrate and handle more businesses.

Jody Feragen

Management

And I think importantly is the disciplined model that we put around when we are looking at whatever our investments are and taking a long-term view because we do buy things that we intend to keep for the next 125 years.

Jim Snee

Analyst

And I would add that we would probably keep them tied to those growth platforms, I discussed. So, when we think about global multicultural, healthy holistic and on-the-go, those are going to be key drivers for us as we go in the future. Doesn’t mean that we wouldn’t look at a business that perhaps adds scale to an existing portfolio that we have but really we want to focus on those growth platforms in the years ahead.

Jana Haynes

Analyst

Farha?

Farha Aslam

Analyst

Results today really highlighted the success of your allocating raw material to the highest opportunity, particularly your Jennie-O Turkey Store had volumes that were down kind of 20% plus but your earnings were nearly flat. So, kind of as you look forward, what more opportunity do you see in both turkey and pork, going forward.

Jeff Ettinger

Operator

I think from a turkey perspective, clearly it’s exactly what you said. I mean the team has done a great job allocating those raw materials. But as we get in to the back half of the year, we will see that return to more normalized returns. We need to make sure that we’ve got our business, our distribution back to where was pre avian influenza because there were some rationalization that had to take place. And so, we’ve got the great fundamentals of the Jennie-O Turkey Store business. And now, if we can go back and put the supply on top of that we think that we are going to be well-positioned for future growth. On the pork side, again, it’s a pork operating margins could have an impact in the back half of the year. But when you look across the Refrigerated Foods in total, we’re talking about meat products, foodservice, a number of different businesses that all -- they don’t all have the same direct impact. So, I mean we expect to be fine on the pork side.

Jana Haynes

Analyst

Rob Moskow?

Rob Moskow

Analyst

Thanks. Also I thought what helped the quarter were bacon margins, deli prices were way down and bacon retail seemed really high. Was that a big driver of refrigerated margin in the quarter, and is that also sustainable given the volatility in deli prices historically?

Jeff Ettinger

Operator

That was a piece of it. I mean clearly if you look at the portfolio of items that we have available, whether it’s Hormel pepperoni, bacon, certainly the Refrigerated Foods or the items in our foodservice group also has a bacon component to it as well. And so our team does do a good job of staying current on pricing, as it does, there is some volatility and fluctuation. So, I mean I think the margin management piece of it, the discipline our team, does a pretty nice job. And I would expect that we would keep that going forward.

Rob Moskow

Analyst

Just to follow up, in turkey, is the industry going to come out of this AI event in the stronger position than it was before because maybe some excess capacity came out? I mean your pricing is up at a time when all other proteins are down. Can you explain how turkey pricing kind of takes [ph] once all that?

Jim Snee

Analyst

I think turkey is kind of unique in the sense that it is a niche protein, even as greater job as our Jennie-O brand has done in proliferating the brand in the marketplace and adding these value added items, I mean it’s not the lead item that the retailers going to feature in their ads, except for Thanksgiving. So, I think the pricing model for us is really fairly consistent one. As long as we build innovative items with true points of difference, we can attain a good margin with those. And we clearly want to support that with the advertising position. Hard to tell from a macro standpoint. I mean this year the whole industry is obviously going to be closely watching this spring to see if there are any further outbreaks. You’re seeing cold storage stocks go up a little bit already. I think that frankly folks are holding to any surplus breast meat or other items they have in anticipation of a potential challenge. We didn’t see any recurrence within our region in the fall. There was a recent incident in Indiana but was a fairly limited one of a different strain. So I think the AI dynamic is going to continue to affect the marketplace at least through the spring and then if it turns out we have a clean spring and we’re kind of out of that mold, then things could change by next year.

Jana Haynes

Analyst

Mario?

Mario Contreras

Analyst

Mario Contreras, Deutsche Bank. So, I wanted to ask about your long-term targets; 5% sales, 10% earnings growth. It’s obviously implying a decent amount of margin expansion over time. But, if we look at your specific segment margin ranges, you are already kind of at the high-end or even above the high-end in some cases. So, can you talk a little bit about where you expect to see that margin expansion come from over time?

Jody Feragen

Management

Well, certainly we’ll look to do some of that leveraging on the corporate and the G&A side of things, like Jeff talked about. But really it’s about focusing on what the consumers are looking for and trying to find the value-added products that fit within the growth platforms that we’ve put out there. Some will come from one of the things that we -- criteria we look for when we’re looking at M&A transactions or even those internal investments are -- we expect the margin profile over those investments over the long-term be accretive to the segments that they’re in. So, lots of different things working towards those goals.

Jeff Ettinger

Operator

As Jon mentioned in his introduction, we certainly have endeavored to shift the portfolio to become more and more of a prepared foods player but our aggregate margins are still well below the average of that universe. So, we think over time and we’ll certainly move the segment margins as we see a logic behind that; we think over time the total Company margins can definitely migrate northwards.

Jon Feeney

Management

Well, thank you. I think that’s all the time we have on the webcast. Just as a reminder, lunch is immediately after this. I believe Hormel management team will be available for your questions. Let’s take this opportunity to thank Hormel once again for what is sure to be a great lunch and for their support of CAGNY, had a great presentation. Thank you.