Steve Voskuil
Analyst · Barclays. You may proceed with your question.
Sure. Maybe I'll just start with the top line as you started. I think you're right. As we look at it today, it's hard to point to something that would say you don't have an on algorithm top line, you don't have momentum. Coming out of this year, we've got long Easter. You mentioned pricing, which will be a bigger factor next year than it was this year, that we also had hoped we'd see some capacity improvements would give us some upside. And then at some point, inventory replenished. And I think that's hard to call, but that -- we would expect to see some of that certainly over the course of next year. So still volatile, but I agree with the first premise. And then as you get into gross margin, I think there's still are a lot of moving pieces. Some of the things I think we can directionally point to, obviously the pricing will have a tailwind on gross margin as we look at raw material. The raw material inflation wasn't a big factor for us this year. We expect it will be a bigger factor as we look at next year. Logistics inflation that we're seeing now, I don't think we see a reason yet for that to break at least through the first half of next year. We'll have less spot market activity because some of the -- we'll be, say, better positioned for some of the stronger consumer demand than we were particularly in the third quarter. we still expect to see some labor inflation. And as we said in the prepared remarks, we've increased headcount to respond to some of the additional demand. Packaging inflation at resins. I think we keep waiting for that to break and it's probably moderated, but it hasn't reverted back to other levels or lower levels. So, I think at least through the first half we're going to see that still remain a pressure point and then we will see how capacity plays out in the broader supply chain network. The challenges we've had with logistics and trucks, warehousing, and all of those labor implications. So, when you step back from all of that, I'd say the gross margin piece is still has a lot of moving pieces. I think will give more clarity, obviously, when we get to February and provide full guidance. But right now, I'd say, particularly, for the first half of the year, we're going to see a lot of those costs’ pressures in place.