Bill Sperry
Analyst · Vertical Research. Your line is open
Good morning, everybody. I know how busy you all are so appreciate you taking time with us. Page 5 has got some graphical representations of what Gerben walked through. So you see the 26% sales growth to $1.192 billion. That's got four points of acquisition in it, and it's got about 3.5 points of price. It unpacks to electrical growing at about 28% and utility at about 23%. So quite a broad-based and I think fair to describe, this as a V-shaped inflection for us comparing against the second quarter last year, where we were down just a little over 20% in total, a little more skewed towards electrical as Gerben highlighted. Utility was a little more resilient last year. So I think the other thing to comment on about the sales growth and about the $1.192 billion is sequentially the pickup from the first quarter is better than typical Hubbell seasonality. So not just does the V-shape feel like it's rebounding from last year's dip, but it also feels like building some momentum and some improvement from first quarter to second quarter. The OP line $173 million is an increase of 15% year-over-year. Gerben highlighted the fact that, this V-shaped recovery is bringing with it, a significant amount of inflation. And so we're working hard to get our pricing up to that level and we're making quite good progress on that. And we'll talk about that a little bit more in our segment discussions. And as you look at earnings per share on the lower left of page 5, you see an increase of 26% to $2.36, a nice increase that's in line with the sales level. To get there, we had some help from the non-op areas, most notably from tax. Some discrete items allowed us to have an effective tax rate in the quarter in the mid-18s, which would cause our full year tax rate to come down to that 21%, 22% range from what we would – started to expect of 22% to 23%. Second contributor to – on the non-op side is interest expense, a little bit lower this quarter. We mentioned last quarter. We had refinanced $300 million of bonds at about 130 basis points lower interest rates. So we're getting the benefit of that lower interest rate here in the second quarter. And the free cash flow of $131 million, it's important to think about what the right comparison and context for that $131 million is. Last year is a strange compare. In the second quarter of 2020, we were certainly reacting to the sharp contraction in demand and were harvesting the working capital section of the balance sheet collecting receivables, not building or investing in inventories. And this quarter, this year is a 180 to that. You basically have gone from the contraction to the expansion. And so, we're investing heavily in receivables and inventories. So, I think looking back to 2019 is actually pretty instructive. We've got a full year target this year of getting to $500 million of free cash flow which is around the level we achieved in 2019 and at the halfway point of 2021. This $131 million plus the first quarter gets us to about $170 million of first half cash flow which compares favorably to where we were in 2019. So feels on track and I think you got a story of quite strong revenues and continuing to navigate the inflationary environment, as we work to get our margins up to where they were last year. I think it's instructive though to unpack the enterprise results into the two segments because they are performing a little bit differently. We'll start with the electrical segment. On page 6 you see a 28% growth rate to $603 million of sales. That includes 1% from acquisitions. You'll remember us talking about the AccelTex acquisition, a really good investment made by the segment in the 5G antenna space. There's about four points of price in that organic growth of 26%. And so, you'll note that that's a little bit ahead of the average for the company at 3.5%. We're finding that the ED channel is quite receptive to these price increases. We find that they're passing that along the channel to the end user and installers. And most of what we're selling, we're finding selling through and not any kind of prebuy situation that we're noticing in the channel. The broad-based nature of this recovery is certainly notable. The electrical segment was down about 26% a full year ago. The next quarter it was down about 14%; the next quarter about 10%; and then flat and now up. So quite a noteworthy inflection and quite broad-based. I'd say if anything leaning to the industrial side as kind of leading us in the V-shape rebound. Certainly, light industrial has been our strongest end market. We're selling connectors, grounding wiring device-type products into that end market and experiencing attractive growth. But the heavy side is showing positive signs as well. Our Harsh & Hazardous business, which has been quite oil and gas based, we've worked hard to diversify the end markets they serve with explosion-proof devices. And they've returned to growth which is quite welcome, as well as heavy industrial components which are serving factories, steel mills, rail transportation and the like also showing good signs. On the non-res side, we had started the year a little bit cautious on non-res. We're anticipating some contraction there. We've been experiencing growth and interesting I think to be led at this point by the reno and retrofit side of the business. I think new construction the early indicators the leading indicators are looking positive there as well. So certainly we have a brighter outlook for non-res than we started the year. Inside of there we've got not only wiring devices, but our commercial and industrial lighting which grew over 20% in the quarter. And the resi business was -- it continues to be strong. And it sort of was strong all through last year. So they'll have harder comps to lap in the second half, but still showing some decent resilience there. So the team did a great job of getting margins to expand to 13.4%, 41% growth in operating profit to $81 million. The higher volumes are important. The restructuring work that Gerben mentioned at the beginning quite important. We've been investing money as you followed us here. A couple of years ago, we spent about $37 million on restructuring, last year about $31 million, anticipating to spend about $20 million this year. And so that you're getting both a tapering effect of that spending, but also the benefits from the projects we did last year creating some good lift. And those were substantial enough to help us overcome the headwinds from the inflation that we're facing. And I think it may be worth just a comment and pulling the lens back on restructuring. We continue to feel quite good about the program. We've taken out by our analysis about 1.5 million square feet from our manufacturing footprint. That's over 15%. And we continue to see opportunity both on the manufacturing side ultimately on the warehouse side as well. And as Gerben described in his opening comments the ability to take the segment and compete collectively under a unified leadership rather than have three different vertical businesses we think is opening up good opportunities to share warehouses, to share factories and become more efficient. And we see continued runway there. I would comment that in the first half of the year, we didn't spend half of the $20 million we anticipated. I'd say a lot of our engineering focus was on capacity and making sure we had production to service our customers' needs. And so the back half outlook for electrical will contain an increase in R&R spending compared to the first half. But we anticipate the demand to be strong. They start the second half with a big backlog and the pricing actions continue to increase as commodities continue to increase most notably steel. We've seen copper and aluminum starting to show signs of maybe flattening out. Steel is still showing signs through the third quarter of increasing until hopefully it looks like some rollover in ultimately in the fourth quarter. So we continue to price for that. I think we've also had to expand our definition. I think those of you who followed us know we try to maintain a parity between price and commodity costs and then use productivity to offset inflation in non-commodity areas. We're finding that the inflation in areas like transportation and some labor costs are such that natural productivity levels are insufficient. So we're starting to sweep those other items into the bucket that need to be covered by price. And again, we've been encouraged by the channel's reaction. We'll continue to offset those and to get to -- get back our margins. The utility side on page 7. You see 23% growth to $589 million. There are six points of acquisition inside that utility growth number and three points of price compares to the four points of price in electrical. So, utility customers moving a little bit more deliberately than the ED channel serving the electrical side. Those acquisitions to remind you included in the enclosure area for electric utilities, water utilities and telecoms. That business is high growth high margin. We also bought the company's called Armorcast. We -- Beckwith is wrapping around here, which is controlling the infrastructure, and maybe also of note we sold a very small line of business from within Aclara, the customer engagement business that didn't fit well with our set of solutions and was worth more to someone else than it was to us. So it has no material impact on our sales or OP going forward, but we feel we can use the proceeds from that to invest in areas with a better fit. We've unpacked the sales here in Utility Solutions between the components and the communications. The components is both electrical T&D, the old legacy Hubbell Power Systems continuing though resilient last year continuing to grow very, very nicely this year. The grid modernization trend and renewables trends continue to push spending there. We've noted a little better strength in distribution and transmission this quarter. That can go back and forth. And the gas distribution components that go into the last mile of natural gas distribution had been you'll recall slightly held back by some site access issues. And happy to see those conditions improving seeing nice growth and nice margins out of the gas distribution business. On the comms business and Aclara, we had also had site access issues there, and as those have improved we see that returning to growth. So, again, a broad-based situation of healthy demand inside of Utility Solutions. $93 million of operating profit is comparable to last year and at lower margin than last year. The price cost area continues to be a source of drag here in the second quarter. Our three points of price is up from about one point in the first quarter. We've had our fourth increase already announced, which will influence the second half. So I think an unprecedented number of increases. And we feel we're certainly leading the market as we announce those price increases, but we continue to be very confident that we'll catch up as this inflation from the commodity starts to level out that we'll catch up and restore our margins. There's two other factors worth mentioning here in the margin profile. First is the Armorcast acquisition that I mentioned. It's located in Southern California and in our -- we closed on the very early January, so we've had it for about six months. And I'd say they've endured significant labor turnover and having a hard time staffing the facilities in that geography. So it's not been contributing much though it's on the bottom line. And so we're working hard and we're very excited about the acquisition. And we're confident we'll have a better second half and set up well for a better 2022. I think the third driver I'd mention to you is inside of Aclara, recall, there's three lines of business there the communications, the meters and the install. The install business is, at the lower end of profitability of the three lines of business. That's where the access had been constrained. As that was loosened, we saw the install area be the largest level of growth and therefore, being mix unfriendly. And so those pieces conspired to result in flat OP for utility. And I think that describes the two segments and where they are. As we think, about the outlook for utility, we feel great about the backlog that's starting in the second half. The demand feels broad-based and solid. Perhaps of note the chip shortage that we're all reading so much about, the place that would affect Hubbell is more in the Aclara on the communications side. And we're sort of watching those supply chain situations closely. But our guidance is contemplating some of those risks. So I'd turn it back Gerben, to you to talk through the outlook in general.