Peter Huntsman
Analyst · Tudor, Pickering, Holt. Please go ahead
I think we've looked at that, again, I want to be absolutely clear. We are buying as of the beginning of April. I think we’re buying very low cost benzene. But again, you buy that in April, and by the time you move it through your inventory, it's going to be the end of June, middle of June. By the time you start to see the economic benefit of that. Now where benzene goes from here? When I saw crude oil this past month at $10 a barrel for the first time in 20 years, I learned a lesson 20 years ago, never do invest in commodities. I thought how much lower can crude oil go than $10 a barrel? And I thought about going long on crude oil, and the next day, I think it went down negative $50 a barrel. I think that we might look at some of those – some pre-purchasing on benzene, but in today's world, we're refining demand, crude consumption, driving patterns, the byproduct of aromatic production on the refining and on the chemical level, the number of people that are shifting from a light slate to a heavy slate in an ethylene cracker, the benzene, toluene, xylene production, economics improving to the side of the heavy consumer versus the light. I mean, if I just add all that up, it tells me that we're probably going to be well satisfied on the benzene side for probably the better part of this year, if not very well satisfied. So I'm not sure that that's a place that we necessarily want to tie up a lot of capital. But again, it's something that we look at on a fairly regular basis. And I would just remind you too that as we look at our North American Polyurethanes pricing to our customers of our commodity side of the business, we have about 30% of that that's locked in on raw material pull through that moves with benzene, with natural gas. So some of that we – I'm not sure that hedging some of that – now we're not getting into running the business, we're really getting into financial instruments that I know absolutely nothing about.