Alfred Marshall Rankin
Analyst · CVC
This is, in my mind, a period of extraordinary transition. First and foremost are the tariffs. When they do stabilize, and I think they will eventually stabilize, it's hard to say at what level but they will stabilize and the prices will go up to recover the costs because pretty much everybody is being affected one way or another directly or indirectly by the tariffs, both importers and domestic producers. So that will settle down. It's hard to estimate exactly when that will happen, but certainly not before the end of this year, there will continue to be the lagging effects that Scott mentioned in his material. Second is the overall demand situation. And there are 2 aspects to the demand transition that we're in. One is that, in a sense, we're in a cyclical low in the industry. We had the very large booking period, extraordinary volumes bookings that occurred during COVID. And so we have an exacerbated low cyclically in the marketplace. That's beginning to work its way through, but it certainly hasn't recovered at this point. And adding to the transitional impact is the tariff issue that I mentioned before because it's not just a question of the costs and prices. It's also a question of demand in the context of uncertainty before the tariff situation settles down. And finally, there is transitional aspect in terms of the strength of the economy and the general manufacturing sector. There's a lot of discussion, as I'm sure that all the people on this call are well aware, about the Fed's stance on interest rates. And of course, they're thinking about the economy in total, with consumer purchases being, by far, the largest portion. And the manufacturing orders and more broadly are not putting the low order rate in the Lift Truck business, it's a separate matter, they're part of the same sort of problem. So we've got the potential for some cyclical weakness in the economy as well as the tariff transition as well as the demand, the normal cycle in the industry. So all those factors, I think, mean there's a lot of short-term pressure, but the company is really positioned to take advantage of the upturn when that comes along, and it should be, given the number of projects that we've undertaken, a very dramatic upturn in the company's revenues and profitabilities. And when I say revenues, it's really absolute unit volumes because we've had such an inflationary impact due to the tariffs. So all those factors make this a transition period and one I think that's the core thing to think about when you're thinking about Hyster-Yale. It's not a short-term story over the next couple of quarters. This has got to be put in a broader and longer-term context.