Earnings Labs

IDACORP, Inc. (IDA)

Q3 2017 Earnings Call· Thu, Nov 2, 2017

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Welcome to IDACORP's Third Quarter 2017 Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded and webcast live. A complete replay will be available from the end of the day for a period of 12 months on the company's website at idacorpinc.com. [Operator Instructions] Now, I will turn the call over to Justin Forsberg, Director of Investor Relations.

Justin Forsberg

Analyst

Thanks, Gary. Before the markets opened today, we issued and posted to the IDACORP’s website both our third quarter 2017 earnings release and Form 10-Q. The slides we’ll be using to supplement today's call are also available on our website. We'll refer to those slides by number during the call. As noted on Slide 2, our presentation today will include forward-looking statements, which represent our current views on what the future holds. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from statements made today, some of which are listed on Slide 2 and are supplemented by information in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which we encourage you to review. We caution you against placing undue reliance on any forward-looking statements. As shown on Slide 3, on today's call, we have Darrel Anderson, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Steve Keen, Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer along with other individuals available to help answer your questions during the question-and-answer period. On Slide 4, we present our quarterly financial results. IDACORP's 2017 third quarter earnings per diluted share were $1.80, an increase of $0.15 per share from last year's third quarter. For the first nine months of 2017, earnings per diluted share were $3.44, $0.16 higher than the first nine months of 2016. I will now turn the presentation over to Steve.

Steve Keen

Analyst

Thanks, Justin. Our positive third quarter results have put us in a good position for a strong finish in 2017. Earnings last quarter exceeded our internal expectations with warmer than normal weather and strong economic activity driving higher results. In addition, we continue to see ongoing earnings benefits from rate based additions approved earlier in the year. On Slide 5, you’ll see a reconciliation of income from the third quarter of 2016 to the third quarter of 2017. I’ll now walk you through those changes. At Idaho Power, 1.8% annual customer growth in our service area provided an increase of $2.3 million to operating income. Higher sales volumes for most customer classes also increased operating income by $12 million. Temperatures during the quarter were higher than normal and when compared with the prior year contributing to much of the 12% increase in residential usage per customer. Higher usage also contributed to increased revenues per megawatt hour as many residential customers where in higher rate tiers during the summer months. We attribute economic growth to a respective 8% and 6% increase in industrial and commercial use per customer over 2016. And the Idaho fixed cost adjustment mechanism or FCA tempered the benefit from increased usage by residential and small commercial customers by $7.4 million. Ongoing benefits resulting from the North Valmy settlement stipulations approved by the Idaho and Oregon public utilities commissions, earlier this year, are reflected in the $14.3 million increase in revenue per megawatt hour, as well as the $4.2 million increase in depreciation expense further down the table. We continue to expect the settlement stipulations to add $5.2 million to 2017 net income when compared with our estimate without this settlement. This includes an after-tax increase in net income of $1.3 million for the third quarter, and an…

Darrel Anderson

Analyst

Thanks Steve, and good afternoon everyone, and thanks for joining us on today's call. I like to start by sharing some economic and growth updates from our area. You will see on Slide 8 that economic activity remained strong at Idaho Power service area. Frequent customer growth stories continue to highlight the many reasons people and companies are choosing to grow their business or relocate to Idaho. For example, Jayco, a manufacturer of towable and motorized recreational vehicles announced plans to expand their manufacturing footprint in Twin Falls Idaho after considering several other Western State locations. Also, recently, eCobalt announced plans to develop a cobalt mining operation and refinery in our service area. According to the company's release, the mine is the only environmentally permitted primary cobalt project in the United States. Cobalt is used in the production of rechargeable batteries among other uses. Looking forward we have seen a continued increase in large load request from both potential new customers and existing customers desiring to expand. We have a number of new large projects, new large load projects that are forecasted to begin taking energy service in the fourth quarter with more set to begin taking service over the next year and beyond. As Steve noted previously, Idaho Power's overall customer growth rate in the third quarter was 1.8% over the past 12 months. This economic growth translates to an increase in sales, which in turn contributed to recording a new peak demand record on July 7 reaching 3,422 megawatts, an increase from the previous record at 3,407 megawatts set in July 2013. Unemployment in our service area was 2.8%, compared with 4.2% at the national level. Compared to this time last year, employment in our service area increased approximately 2.6%. Idaho continues to show solid economic and residential…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Paul Ridzon with KeyBanc Capital. Please go ahead.

Paul Ridzon

Analyst

Good afternoon guys.

Darrel Anderson

Analyst

Hi Paul.

Steve Keen

Analyst

Hi Paul.

Paul Ridzon

Analyst

Steve, you said the outlook for the rest of the year for the Valmy, I think you said 1.3 million and 1.4 million, was the balance of that recognized in the second quarter, trying to get my timing, right?

Steve Keen

Analyst

Yes. The full year amount we gave is the sum of the three quarters, yes. And we haven't changed that number since we originally talked about it.

Paul Ridzon

Analyst

The FCA, kind of decoupling mechanism just break down when you get to the point when you're in the higher tiers?

Steve Keen

Analyst

What it does is, certainly from a pure volume standpoint it gives and takes and when we sell more that returns some of that higher cost of the customers pay back to customers. That’s how the mechanism works when we sell less. It helps us, it replaces some of that, but we do get benefits and that’s why we mentioned the tiering. The fact it drives people to hire tiers, that portion is not really impacted by the FCA. So, we would argue there is still positive benefits from an earnings standpoint as we have higher usage in the summer, but it certainly mitigates to some, but I can tell you that having had a couple of winters where we didn’t necessarily see it exactly like we thought, it clearly helps there as well and it gives you a more predictable stream.

Paul Ridzon

Analyst

And can we assume that you're going to be in the customers sharing ROE bands?

Steve Keen

Analyst

What we have said today is that we are in between - we are in the deadband is s what we - that is where we sit right now. It is between the 9.5 on the 10.

Darrel Anderson

Analyst

Paul, it is Darrel. Given the guidance that Steve provided, where that puts us is in within that deadband between earning up to almost the sharing levels. So, we are not there yet given the range that we’re providing right now.

Steve Keen

Analyst

We did move beyond - Paul, we moved beyond the credit need is why this is actually giving us the ability to show a little bit higher earnings and there is a point when that moves into the sharing band, but we are kind of in between those two right now.

Paul Ridzon

Analyst

And that band is 9.5 to 10.5?

Steve Keen

Analyst

To 10.

Darrel Anderson

Analyst

9.5 to 10, yes.

Paul Ridzon

Analyst

And Darrel, I appreciate your commentary on rate case activity, but how do you think about near term?

Darrel Anderson

Analyst

That’s a good question Paul. So, I think as we stay here right now, what I would tell you is, first I get to think about what the timing of our regulatory process is, for the time you file it’s about seven months and then you have to give advance notice and all those sorts of things. So obviously we’re not looking to do anything through the balance of this year from a standpoint of filing and then we will assess 2018, but I think right now you have to think about how long a lead time there is, so we would have to signal early in 2018 if we are going to do something for 2019. So, stay tuned for that, but I would just tell you given what we would hope to see is continued strong economic activity and if we can continue to manage the expenses like we have done this year, we would hope to not have to go in, and those are going to be couple of the key drivers to us, but as I meant - the reason we focus on economic activity is, as we are seeing a lot and that is allowing us to not have to go in and file. As you noted, we started out the year thinking we were going to use credits. Well because of our management of expenses and the continued benefits we saw with the economy, we - and also the additional rate base that went into effect that’s allowed us not to have to file. So, we would do everything we can not to file and our whole goal is not to have to raise prices for customers. So that’s where our focus is and so I don't want to say with any sense of specificity as, yes, we are going to file on this date, but we are going to continue to manage it like we have.

Paul Ridzon

Analyst

And then certainly that 1.8% customer growth is a nice tailwind to keep you out of the regulatory arena, is there some more dry powder on the cost front?

Steve Keen

Analyst

You know Paul it’s - we have done a good job in holding it fairly level, and I would say that has become more challenging each year, but I would say we are targeted more or not having major increases then we are a massive reduction and recalled that you’ve heard us say in meetings in the past, we’ve attempted to do this by rightsizing what we do. We are not cutting things that are going to impact customers or cause problems with the system. We’re trying to be creative. We’ve taken advantage of retirements that is the baby boom era hit us and we had people leaving. We have looked for every opportunity to capture savings where we could, but we’re not in a massive cut mode. In fact, if anything we’re maintaining the system and improving service to customers. So, there is some limits to how far down, but I tell you, I have started to believe that we have found a new focus that has led us continue to have each year be kind of in line with where we were before, but it’s challenging. I have to admit that.

Darrel Anderson

Analyst

I would just add one thing on it because Steve mentioned, the labor side of the equation. One of the things, we obviously disclose our headcount from time to time and our headcount has been fairly flat for the last four or five years, despite all the pressures on so many, many things that are coming at us whether they be in areas of security, new compliance regulations, a lot of those things create more work to do, and we're just trying to continue to try to find out better ways in which to do some of that work. And so even as we see today, right now our headcount is down from where we were last year. Part of that’s timing, open positions, and what have you, but we are keeping a real track of that and leadership is really focused on doing that, but at the same time not putting the business at risk.

Paul Ridzon

Analyst

Okay, thank you very much.

Darrel Anderson

Analyst

Thanks Paul.

Steve Keen

Analyst

Thanks Paul.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Ashar Khan with Visium. Please go ahead.

Ashar Khan

Analyst · Visium. Please go ahead.

Hi, how are you guys doing?

Darrel Anderson

Analyst · Visium. Please go ahead.

Hi Ashar.

Steve Keen

Analyst · Visium. Please go ahead.

Hi Ashar.

Ashar Khan

Analyst · Visium. Please go ahead.

I wanted to find out two questions, one is, out of this new guidance, which the midpoint is 4.10 [ph], is there any one-time item or is this, I’m trying to see can we can we build from this new guidance as we look at next year or you would attribute some portion of it to be one-time in nature and as we model the base, I’m trying to see is the base good enough this new guidance to build off or no?

Steve Keen

Analyst · Visium. Please go ahead.

Well Ashar with the mechanism that we have in place, I would say the most typical way people have used to get any sort of triangulation on the future is to try to estimate that year-end equity. And even a one-time item to the extent it closes into equity this year becomes a part of next year's computation because it’s, the support level brings you the 9.5% of - actually the following year's year-end equity, it is year-end equity in the year that you are in, but I would say in this year there is not really significant items, we did have one that we called out that was a settlement related to some wages that we had in place on DSM charges, demand side management charges, and that’s an item that had a catch-up element to it and it look back to wages over a number of years. So that’s really, that would be considered a one-time, so you're going to see that same amount falls into next year, but again it drops into the equity and it’s really - rather than trying to guess all the items it’s kind of easier to try to guess the 9.5 and the 10 timeline and you can triangulate that way.

Ashar Khan

Analyst · Visium. Please go ahead.

Understood, but just wanted to check-in, right. The reason that your estimate is higher this year, right now in the third quarter, versus what you started off in the beginning of the year, is that because of higher growth or the 1.8, I’m trying to see what is driving that extra, the higher estimate for the year as it grows out the year?

Steve Keen

Analyst · Visium. Please go ahead.

Well one item, that you did here, let’s talk about is the weather clearly had an impact. And we don't have a forecast weather and so that’s an add that wouldn't be there early in the year. In terms of rate settlements, we did have add some dollars to rate base in the middle of the year that weren't there. So that also comes into the picture. It’s a number of things that have gotten us to where - at this point in the year we now feel confident in giving a higher number.

Darrel Anderson

Analyst · Visium. Please go ahead.

Ashar, this is Darrel. I would just add, the one thing I know - the other thing that Steve did mention in his comments is, we are managing the O&M side of things, I mean that’s also contributing to the left and as we had responded earlier to Paul's question there is pressure on that number, and we will give you updates on what our O&M estimates are and we’ll do that in February for you, but that’s another reason we have seen a bit of the lift this year, because we are doing a good job of managing those O&M expenses. Part of them are because of reduced operations at our thermal fleet, which does provide a benefit, but we also have - there is upward pressures in other areas too. So, we’re doing a decent job with that, but that’s helped and we will continue to do that.

Ashar Khan

Analyst · Visium. Please go ahead.

And then… go ahead.

Steve Keen

Analyst · Visium. Please go ahead.

Now, I just wanted to say a little color with the O&M side is, thinking back you kind of forget things few quarters later, but when we had the - the good news of all the snow that we accumulated this winter that puts some pressure on things early in the year. I mean dealing with the snow it was so much that it was actually a challenge in many places and that was putting pressure on O&M in the other directions. So, you don't, in the midst of that project that you are necessarily going to take it back down and we needed to wait and see. Now as we move through the year, we found ways to balance things out that looks good at this point.

Ashar Khan

Analyst · Visium. Please go ahead.

Okay. And then Darrel my next question was that, I hope going nicely with the stock, but one issue we always face is liquidity, and don't you think it’s kind of, I’m trying to understand the management's view on stock split over here to providers with a little bit more liquidity to trade the stock, which would be helpful, any thoughts on that please?

Darrel Anderson

Analyst · Visium. Please go ahead.

Yes, Ashar. We look at that from time-to-time and we obviously are aware of that and we have our internal conversations, we actually seek back from others when we look at that and the way the pros and cons of doing that. And so today, we have elected not to. It does obviously enhance liquidity, but at the same time there is a cause to doing that at the same time, and so we are trying to weigh the cost and the value proposition of that, but it’s a question we get somewhat frequently these days, given kind of that where we are trading at, but, I would just tell you we are continuing to evaluate it. And any feedback you have for us, obviously we would take that. As to your pros and cons of it, that’s always helpful for us to because it is important to understand the investor's perspective on this. As you know, stock splits don't do a lot, I mean obviously you have the same value before the split and after the split and the way you go from there depends. So, there is - we do talk about it quite frequently.

Steve Keen

Analyst · Visium. Please go ahead.

And Ashar I would also just say there are competing opinions on the liquidity side, I have seen one study that actually says your liquidity drops. I think there’s more that say you get some liquidity benefit, but even they are very - pointing to very mild changes, it’s not, it’s almost hard to attribute it to anything real that almost could be just modelling error, it doesn't appear to be really significant.

Ashar Khan

Analyst · Visium. Please go ahead.

No, but from your perspective the cons are crossed, is that correct, is that what you identify Darrel?

Darrel Anderson

Analyst · Visium. Please go ahead.

That’s the [indiscernible].

Ashar Khan

Analyst · Visium. Please go ahead.

Cost of implementing it. My only thing is, that if you get to 100 rate today right now, right, I don't think you can historically go back and look at it, but if I look at my screen it is NextEra, which has the highest stock price, which is of course the largest market cap company in the whole sector and if I’m correct after NextEra it is you, which is one of the smallest market cap companies in the sector. So, it makes it harder for the retail guy and the utility average guy to buy the stock, which I don't know should help with liquidity because we on a relative basis versus the rest of the sector are very, very high versus our market cap on [indiscernible]. So, we are skewed way away from that perspective. So, I don't know - this is my just general thought, but anyways great results and look forward to seeing you.

Steve Keen

Analyst · Visium. Please go ahead.

Thank Ashar.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Chris Ellinghaus with Williams Capital. Please go ahead.

Chris Ellinghaus

Analyst · Williams Capital. Please go ahead.

Hi guys, how are you?

Darrel Anderson

Analyst · Williams Capital. Please go ahead.

Hi Chris.

Steve Keen

Analyst · Williams Capital. Please go ahead.

Hi Chris.

Chris Ellinghaus

Analyst · Williams Capital. Please go ahead.

Can I follow up on Ashar’s question, have you got an estimate for what a split would cost?

Darrel Anderson

Analyst · Williams Capital. Please go ahead.

We do, but I don’t saw we finally wouldn’t be inclined to share it at this point. We have a determined approximate cost would be. And the other - just the other thing just to follow on Ashar’s comment Chris is, the other thing we actually do look at our current ownership split between the institutional side and the retail side that’s the other component as you know we’re heavily institutional today, and so again we always are open to feedback on this and it’s important to understand it, but we haven't seen yet the compelling story, which to do so at this time.

Steve Keen

Analyst · Williams Capital. Please go ahead.

Yes. In fact, I would add one other thing. As you know Chris, as we did our dividend strategy the way we have approached that, we spend a lot of time hearing from our - particularly our largest shareholder and when we’ve had this discussion with them it borders on in difference to some saying they don't know why we would do it. So, I do think it’s a place we’re listening if there is feedback we need to hear we will pay attention.

Chris Ellinghaus

Analyst · Williams Capital. Please go ahead.

Okay, can I add Darrel, I’m shocked and astonished that there will be no ADITC recognition this year.

Darrel Anderson

Analyst · Williams Capital. Please go ahead.

We appreciate your comment Chris.

Chris Ellinghaus

Analyst · Williams Capital. Please go ahead.

I didn’t want it to sort of follow-up in terms of this being the new baseline for earnings, do you have an estimate for the third quarter in particular given, I would call them somewhat unique conditions, do you have any sort of estimate what the third quarter weather looked like versus or what the earnings impact might have been versus normal, did you consider this quarter normal, where did that fall into the spectrum of your expectations?

Steve Keen

Analyst · Williams Capital. Please go ahead.

You know Chris we don’t - that is a place that we don't typically isolate the weather exactly and it is - there are ways to get approximations, but it’s just not something we’ve typically done. Chris, it did help the quarter.

Darrel Anderson

Analyst · Williams Capital. Please go ahead.

Yes, but as you know, if you look at our Q, we talk about cooling degree days in the third quarter and obviously we were up significantly from where we were last year, up significantly from normal, when you take a look at that and like Steve said, it’s not the easiest thing to do, it is how you tie that right specifically to weather, but it’s fair to say yes we had, there is a weather impact in the third quarter, but attempting to quantify that is really a tough thing to do. Part of it, again I would say is, part of that is mitigated by in the residential small business with the FCA. So, we don't forget that same level of lift. I think what the other piece I would continue to look at is, what I'm focused on is, what are we doing on that? What is happening on the growth side of things and we attempted to capture our best estimate of that in our schedule, and I think that’s the thing that does help maybe interrupt with that baseline. Could look like, but to tour and quantify the weather is really a difficult thing for us to do. We do some internal estimates, but we are not comfortable not to really share those on the outside.

Chris Ellinghaus

Analyst · Williams Capital. Please go ahead.

Right. Given the FCA, I was thinking more in terms of, did you have any qualitative sort of thought about where irrigation fell in the quarter, anything like that?

Darrel Anderson

Analyst · Williams Capital. Please go ahead.

Well as you know, we have a couple of things going on here in irrigation throughout the year, part of it was, you know the start of the growing season was delayed because of weather and then obviously we did sell more in the - when you take just slightly in the third quarter over last year's third quarter, but not that much actually slightly down, actually is slightly down. And so even despite the warmer than normal weather, we didn’t sell more kilowatts in the irrigation side.

Chris Ellinghaus

Analyst · Williams Capital. Please go ahead.

Okay. You hit upon the, sort of the NOAH forecast for precipitation. I was going to ask you about this, given where reservoirs are and sort of NOAH’s outlook should, do you think it’s fair to sort of be thinking about 2018 already as in some ways a replication of 2017, and secondly, do you think that the reservoir levels along with the NOAH forecast is going to influence crop planting plans for next year?

Darrel Anderson

Analyst · Williams Capital. Please go ahead.

I would say, Chris, it is little too early to really comment on that directly, but I would say that I don't think - last year was a pretty anomalous year from a snowpack perspective in a lot of our regions. And so, I think we, not sure we will repeat last year, but I think we are going to have a good water year, and I believe, again the ag communities, states the reservoir carryover as it stands today, so I think they have a sense as to what it is, part of it will be what commodity prices are doing too. What the forecast is on commodity prices are going to be, that drives it as much as weather in some cases. So, I think we do believe it will be a pretty decent water year barring some drop off in NOAH’s forecast of what precipitation and temperatures might look like, but based on what we know today we’re optimistic.

Chris Ellinghaus

Analyst · Williams Capital. Please go ahead.

Okay. Thanks, will see you next week.

Darrel Anderson

Analyst · Williams Capital. Please go ahead.

Thanks Chris.

Steve Keen

Analyst · Williams Capital. Please go ahead.

Thanks Chris.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] That concludes the question-and-answer session for today. Mr. Anderson, I will turn the conference back to you.

Darrel Anderson

Analyst

Thanks Gary, and thanks for all of you guys for participating. We know you have been really, really busy today, but we appreciate you taking the time to participate with us today. We absolutely look forward to seeing many of you at the EEI Financial Conference next week. Again, thanks a lot and hope you have a good rest of your day.

Operator

Operator

Well that concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.