Earnings Labs

IDACORP, Inc. (IDA)

Q1 2022 Earnings Call· Sat, May 7, 2022

$145.34

-0.28%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Welcome to IDACORP First Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. Today’s call is being recorded, and our webcast is live. A complete replay will be available later today and for the next 12 months on the IDACORP website. [Operator Instructions] I will now turn the call over to Justin Forsberg, Director of Investor Relations and Treasury.

Justin Forsberg

Analyst

Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. This morning, we issued and posted to IDACORP’s website our first quarter 2022 earnings release and Form 10-Q. We’re also pleased to point you to our latest environmental, social and governance report, which we published last month. This report highlights many areas that define our company’s culture, such as our stewardship of the Snake River as well as Wild and aquatic life and safety, integrity and respect as company values. While we have published this type of report for several years, this is the second year we have reported metrics and disclosures utilizing the Sustainability Accounting Standards Board and a task force on climate-related financial disclosure reporting frameworks. We also continued our disclosure of EEI standardized ESG metrics. You can find our ESG report on IDACORP’s website under the About Us page then by clicking on ESG information. We think you will be happy with the company’s direction and accomplishments that are highlighted in the report, and we welcome your feedback. The slides that accompany today’s call are also available on IDACORP’s website. We will refer to those slides by number throughout the call today. As noted on Slide 2, our discussion today includes forward-looking statements, including earnings guidance and spending forecasts which reflect our current views on what the future holds but are subject to several risks and uncertainties. This cautionary note is also included in more detail for your review in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. These risks and uncertainties may cause actual results to differ materially from statements made today, and we caution against placing undue reliance on any forward-looking statements. As shown on Slide 3, on today’s call, we have Lisa Grow, IDACORP’s President and Chief Executive Officer; and Brian Buckham, IDACORP’s Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. In addition to Lisa and Brian, we have other members of our management team available for a Q&A session after Lisa and Brian provide updates. Slide 4 shows our quarterly financial results. IDACORP’s 2022 first quarter earnings per diluted share were $0.91, an increase of $0.02 per share from last year’s first quarter. The first quarter results are IDACORP’s highest in more than 2 decades. Today, we also affirm our previously issued full year 2022 IDACORP earnings guidance estimate to be in the range of $4.85 to $5.05 per diluted share with our expectation that Idaho Power will not need to utilize this year any of the additional tax credits that are available to support earnings under its Idaho Regulatory Settlement Stipulation. These affirmed estimates assume historically normal weather conditions over the balance of the year. I’ll now turn the call over to Lisa.

Lisa Grow

Analyst

Thanks, Justin, and thank you to everyone joining us on today’s call. I’ll begin my remarks with an update on customer growth, which remains strong across the Idaho Power service area. As noted on Slide 5, our customer base has increased 2.6% since the first quarter of last year as Idaho continues to be one of the fastest-growing states in the nation according to U.S. Census data. The economy within Idaho Power service area also continues to outperform national trends. Moody’s predict sustained economic growth going forward. The forecast calls for GDP growth of 2.4% in 2022 and a robust 5.1% in 2023. Unemployment within Idaho Power service area is at 2.7%, below the 3.6% reported at the national level. Employment in our region has grown approximately 7.8% since Q1 of last year. New connection requests continue to come in at a steady pace. In addition to the 960,000 square foot Meta data center facility announcement, we mentioned during the Q4 earnings call, several large load customers announced projects in Idaho Power service area during Q1 of this year. Examples include the Stowe Company, which plans to build a 550,000 square foot manufacturing plant for its Deposit & Storage Solutions business and the new Red River Logistics Center near [indiscernible], which at 900,000 square feet would become the largest industrial spec building in Idaho. The spec building that has been taking place is to us, reflective of the confidence of developers in the continued in migration of businesses to Idaho. We are also working to formalize a new rate class for large-scale cryptocurrency mining customers, which we believe would help mitigate financial risks for the company and our other customers. The new rate class will establish parameters for speculative high-density low customers evaluating Idaho Power service area for operations. We…

Justin Forsberg

Analyst

Thanks, Lisa, and good afternoon, everyone. I’ll start my portion on Slide 8, where you’ll see our first quarter 2022 results compared to Q1 of last year. We’ve had a solid start to the year results compared to Q1 of last year. We’ve had a solid start to the year. We’ve seen continued strong customer growth, positive weather impact on sales, higher transmission wheeling revenues and a return to more normal economic activities for commercial and industrial customers. That was offset by higher operating and maintenance expenses coming off what I would consider an abnormally low first quarter last year, which I’ll explain in more detail later. And as Justin mentioned, I had booked its first quarter earnings this year were the highest for a first quarter in 21 years. In the table of quarter-over-quarter changes, you’ll see that customer growth added $3 million to operating income. We expect this growth to continue as more people and businesses continue to locate to our service area to live and do business. The state of Idaho has been marketing its business-friendly environment and quality of life and from the sustained in migration, people and businesses seem to be responding to that. And next on the table, rise in heating in 3 days over the first quarter of last year led to 8% higher residential for customer usage, while increased economic activity led to a 4% increase in usage for commercial customer and a 5% increase in usage for industrial customer. Part of the increased economic activity relates to nonpandemic conditions existing for commercial and industrial customers in this year’s first quarter compared to last year. You’ll note on the table that the combined usage changes led to a $9.3 million increase in operating income. The $5.9 million decrease in Idaho Power’s fixed…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Paul Zimbardo with Bank of America.

Paul Zimbardo

Analyst

I want to kick it off since you mentioned the crypto tariffs. Just if you could discuss how some of those conversations have evolved with the potential off-takers? I know you had that regulatory filing where it didn’t appear like there was a lot of initial uptake. So just curious how those conversations have been going.

Lisa Grow

Analyst

I’ll start, and then I’ll turn it to Tim to talk about regulatory and Adam to talk about sort of the business development side. Certainly, we’ve had conversations over the years with cryptocurrency that have interest in sitting in Idaho. However, they generally need to move fast, need to find the lowest rates they can find, and we really just haven’t ever come to an agreement that met everyone’s needs. So we wanted to make sure, given the amount of inquiries that we were getting that we were just setting it up to mitigate risk. So we -- the company didn’t assume risk and neither did the rest of our customers, given that these folks can come in and out of our service area pretty quickly. So do you want to start, Adam, with that, and the...

Adam Richins

Analyst

Yes, that sounds good. Yes. I mean we continue to see a steady flow of inquiries, I think, after the filing. And we’ve seen a couple small commercial hookups, but we haven’t seen anything major come on the system. Again, the inquiries are coming, but the actual hookups just haven’t made it there.

Tim Tatum

Analyst

Yes. Paul, this is Tim Tatum, Vice President of Regulatory Affairs. So the case at this point is fully submitted. We received favorable comments from the commission staff supporting our filing. We’re just now awaiting a commission order at this point.

Brian Buckham

Analyst

And Paul, one thing I’d note on the cryptocurrency side is there seems to be quite a bit of price sensitivity associated with that in terms of the inquiries scale based on the price of cryptocurrency. So I think a lot of crypto miners have a model in their mind in terms of electric power being one of the primary inputs to their cost structure -- so if you see prices go down, certainly, interest goes down and as price accelerates or goes up, on cryptocurrencies you tend to see more interest.

Paul Zimbardo

Analyst

Yes, absolutely. Okay. I appreciate all that. And then the other question I had unrelated, and congrats on keeping the O&M impact with the new pressures. Just curious how the new inflationary environment could potentially accelerate that rate case even a little bit faster than you thought before? And just how you think about the subsequent rate case cadence because I know you talked about some of the commercial service dates and things like that. So kind of beyond what the bigger picture strategy would be, that would be helpful.

Lisa Grow

Analyst

Do you want to start?

Brian Buckham

Analyst

Sure. I can take that. Thanks, Paul. So on the O&M side, looking at where we’re at now, we’re holding to our guidance of the $355 million to $365 million. We ended 2021 at $361 million. Inflation is certainly having an impact on that. It’s putting pressure on it. We’ve seen labor increases. Obviously, we’re seeing some increases from our -- from suppliers as well. I would say some of the inflation we’re seeing is on capital projects as well, which I mentioned we’re looking at a range of our capital, and we could be a little over the top, as I noted. In terms of how that might impact our rate case, we’re actually looking at factors like the timing of the in-service date of some of our resources as being primary drivers of the timing and rate cases. So some of that higher capital expense while we’re trying to keep it low, obviously, to keep customer rates low. There is a bias towards those capital projects pushing into a rate case and as prices go up, there’s a potential for accelerating. But I would really send it more in the near term to the in-service date of some of those larger capital projects like the battery storage project we have and some of the things like Health Canyon licensing and [indiscernible] as those projects come on.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Brian Russo with Sidoti.

Brian Russo

Analyst · Sidoti.

I noticed trailing 12 months customer growth is 2.6% as of March might be getting too granular, but I recall that 12 months ended December was 2.8%. Any brief through there?

Lisa Grow

Analyst · Sidoti.

At this point, it’s hard to tell. One quarter certainly doesn’t make a trend. And we’re not sure at this point if some of it is reflective of the supply chain disruption. Certainly, there’s a lot of homes that people can’t move into because they don’t have garage doors or they don’t have ovens. And so we’re seeing some of those disruptions. But certainly, as you move through our territory, there’s still just a tremendous amount of construction going on. So we’ll be watching it carefully. But I think at this point in time, we haven’t read too much into it.

Brian Russo

Analyst · Sidoti.

Understood. And the GDP forecast for your service territory. Are those consistent with the prior forecast? Or have they changed for ‘22 and ‘23?

Brian Buckham

Analyst · Sidoti.

I think the forecast of 2.4% in 2022 is slightly lower and then the 5.1% in 2020, I think is consistent, if not slightly higher than prior numbers.

Brian Russo

Analyst · Sidoti.

Okay. Great. And then -- yes. And it looks like below normal pre-IP above normal temperatures. Any expectation for the irrigation season, which I believe starts soon, given the weather dynamic, maybe not as extreme as last year, but it seems as if you might get some greater electricity demand from that customer class?

Lisa Grow

Analyst · Sidoti.

Yes. It is true that in April, they sort of got their irrigation for free, coming from the sky. And that does sometimes delay their crops. And then you’ve got the commodity prices that may expand some of their planting. So we’re going to watch that carefully. But it does look like it’s going to be hot and dry, which is generally good for load. So we’ll stay tuned and sort of see how the season develops.

Brian Russo

Analyst · Sidoti.

Okay. And then just lastly, I think maybe in prior calls, you mentioned that there’s roughly 40% upside to your base CapEx, which I think is about $2.8 billion. And I’m wondering, I noticed you’ve signed several PPAs, 1 with Duke Energy, I believe, a couple of weeks ago. And I’m just curious, how much of that 40% upside is kind of firmly committed for IDACORP to invest? Or is a lot of this going to be contingent on RFP outcomes and/or the B2H increased ownership?

Brian Buckham

Analyst · Sidoti.

Yes. Brian, so the Duke Energy contract was in quite a while ago, now we’re actually looking to have in-service fairly soon, I think for 2023 to early 2023. But the new one that we signed was part of our RFP process. It was a 40-megawatt facility, solar facilities. It will be dedicated to a specific customer, and then we had the 120 megawatts of batteries that we also purchased. So the 120 megawatts are in that capital forecast. Obviously, the PPAs are not. There is an additional component of our forecast of rebate if you’ve seen the chart that we’ve put out that does have us owning some additional resources, and that is subject to the outcome of regulatory process and also from the RFP process. So we’re still working through that. We’re in the early stages of reviewing what we received. Obviously, we have a self-build in there and some of the stuff that we’ve received back does include ownership components as well. Other big pieces of that, though, are things like the Boardman to Hemingway project. We’ve got some upgrades that are natural gas plants that are in there. We have some hydro refurbishments in there. So there’s a lot of other CapEx in there beyond of that future generation resource piece.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Chris Ellinghaus with Siebert Williams.

Chris Ellinghaus

Analyst · Siebert Williams.

Maybe I missed this, but did you give a time line for the RFP shortlist?

Lisa Grow

Analyst · Siebert Williams.

Adam, do you want to take that?

Adam Richins

Analyst · Siebert Williams.

Yes. We are currently reviewing proposals and should be looking at a short list for the 2024 RFP this summer. In terms of the 2025 RFP, we’re kind of reviewing our options there, reviewing the proposals and the shortlist for that will probably be later than the summer date for 2025.

Chris Ellinghaus

Analyst · Siebert Williams.

Okay. It looks like April was pretty cool. I assume you’ve factored that into your guidance at this point?

Brian Buckham

Analyst · Siebert Williams.

Yes. We forecast for normal weather conditions. April isn’t typically one of our large anyway, and when we can start getting into the hotter summer months, those have a bigger impact. And we’ll start looking more irrigation loads as we get into further into this month and into June as well. So those will be larger drivers than our typical April, but I do think April temperatures were below average in our service area.

Chris Ellinghaus

Analyst · Siebert Williams.

Okay. Can you give us a little color back to the irrigation outlook hot and dry is definitely good. But how do you -- how should we think about water availability and how that factors into just how much water is available for irrigation in the coming quarter?

Lisa Grow

Analyst · Siebert Williams.

Well, we certainly work carefully with the state and those that are responsible to allocate the resource. And from what we know now, we think it will be spread around and people will largely be able to get what they need. But certainly, there is a prioritization of water rights and sort of who gets what or who has priority over another right. But at this point in time, we are, again, watching carefully and we’ll see the weather right now is going to be stormy over the weekend and more precise. So it’s really hard to forecast at the moment. But it’s good news that we are continuing to see precipitation.

Chris Ellinghaus

Analyst · Siebert Williams.

Okay. I know you can’t really talk about individual new customers, but you’ve got some pretty big new loads. Can you sort of talk about what the overall magnitude might look like for your new developing customers?

Adam Richins

Analyst · Siebert Williams.

Sure. Yes. This is Adam. We continue to see, I think, a steady amount of inquiries that are coming in the door, everything from food and beverage processing to dairies, the biodigesters to technology to manufacturing has really been diverse, and we’re starting to see a little bit more load in the area of electric growth and some buses, electric buses as well. So we seem to be up in pretty much all categories except for the office space at this point. And we’ve had a lot of loads come in the door that are public, of course, Meta, ASIC, Lam Westin, True West B, Idaho, Cobalt, Red River, just a slew of them come in the door and as they start to hook up, I think we’re going to see some benefits in terms of our load.

Chris Ellinghaus

Analyst · Siebert Williams.

Are we talking about hundreds of megawatts?

Lisa Grow

Analyst · Siebert Williams.

Yes.

Adam Richins

Analyst · Siebert Williams.

Yes. We project through the IRP 50-plus megawatts a year, and those projections are in the current plan.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Anthony Crowdell with Mizuho.

Anthony Crowdell

Analyst · Mizuho.

Just, I guess, quickly talking about how you’re financing this additional capital. Any thought to utilizing actually the balance sheet at IDACORP versus Idaho Power?

Brian Buckham

Analyst · Mizuho.

So actually, we have a lot of cash on core balance sheet currently. And as we look at some of the uses that. I mean it could be -- some of that could be for dividend purposes. Some of that could be for investment in things like affordable housing like we’ve done in the past. But we have considered things like using a portion of that as an equity contribution or a loan to Idaho Power to help fund some of that CapEx, push some of that potential equity issuance, which, again, we see equity issuance quite a ways out for this. We have a lot of debt headroom to get to our 50-50 target going into a rate case. So a lot of headroom there on the debt side.

Anthony Crowdell

Analyst · Mizuho.

Yes. And I guess maybe if I could then state the question in a different way. Clearly, you do have a lot of debt headroom at the utility. But when I think of the earnings sharing mechanism, that’s based off of a GAAP layer of equity just sort of reconcile the thought of why look to work that down?

Brian Buckham

Analyst · Mizuho.

Yes. I would just say we haven’t taken any option off the table at this point. So there is some potential there. But we’re a little ways out from that. So still trying to put our plans together on how we would do that.

Anthony Crowdell

Analyst · Mizuho.

Great. And then just -- I don’t believe there’s much impact. I think you had also said earlier, I think 95% of the power cost in Idaho get passed through to consumers or rate payers. But I think Slide 10, you do talk about the dry conditions, expectation of lower hydro. I mean are you seeing any type of impact to customers from the lower hydro expected this year?

Lisa Grow

Analyst · Mizuho.

I mean certainly, when we have more hydro, it’s a lower-cost portfolio. So -- but remember that last year, we also had a pretty dry year. So you’re comparing it year-to-year, it may not be a big difference. But certainly, the more high growth or lower the overall cost to our customers.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] That concludes the question-and-answer session for today. Ms. Grow, I will turn the conference back to you.

Lisa Grow

Analyst

Thank you all for joining this afternoon and for your continued interest in IDACORP. I would like to invite all of you to participate in the 2022 Annual Meeting of Shareholders, which will be held 2 weeks from today, May 19, at 10 a.m. Mountain time. A formal notice has been sent to shareholders with instructions on how to attend the virtual meeting, and we issued a press release a short time ago with instructions on how to listen online via the IDACORP website. We look forward to sharing updates from 2021 and listening to and responding to our shareholder questions. I continue to wish you all good health and to all the moms out there, a very happy Mother’s Day this weekend. Have a wonderful evening. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

That concludes today’s conference. Thank you for your participation.