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InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (IHG)

Q4 2014 Earnings Call· Tue, Feb 17, 2015

$142.43

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Transcript

Richard Solomons

Management

Okay. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us today. Welcome to our 2014 full year results presentation. So before I hand over to Paul, I'd just like to start with some of the highlights and prospectus on the market. 2014 was an excellent year for IHG, and we delivered a strong financial performance, which Paul will talk about in more detail shortly. We made excellent strategic progress. We acquired Kimpton Hotels & Restaurants, opened the first EVEN Hotels in the U.S., and just last week, opened the first HUALUXE hotel in China. Alongside this, we developed our more established brands, achieving many growth milestones, which I'll talk more about later on. And our disciplined approach to capital allocation saw as return over $1 billion to shareholders in the year. So where is the hospitality industry today, and how is the outlook? As we've seen for many years now, tailwinds for the sector remain very favorable. Demand continues to be driven by global GDP growth, increasing disposable income, demographics, the globalization of travel and the growing number of outbound travelers from emerging markets. The industry is also becoming increasingly branded, driven by both consumers and the capital markets. And this is a backdrop where our strategy and strength position us well to win in the future, explaining why we have a 13% share of the active pipeline globally with only a 5% share of existing supply. In our largest market, the U.S., we continue to experience favorable industry dynamics. GDP growth remained strong, driving demand to record levels. And supply growth is still considerably below the long-term average, driving strong RevPAR performance. However, today's macroeconomic environment outside of the U.S. seems to be more uncertain and variable than it has been for some time, with an unfortunate mix of falling oil prices, the strengthening U.S. dollar, heightened potential for a Eurozone crisis, continued terrorist activity across the Middle East and the specter of a hung parliament in the U.K. Having said that, as we look into 2015, we're confident that we'll continue to deliver against our strategy and the strong momentum in our business positions us well for continuing out-performance. So I'll now hand over to Paul, who'll talk in more detail about our financial performance in 2014. And I will return later to discuss our strategy, with a particular focus on our brands and how we're using technology to enhance the customer experience across the guest journey. Paul?

Paul Edgecliffe-Johnson

Management

Thank you, Richard, and good morning, everyone. We are pleased to report another year of strong financial performance with growth in fee revenues across each of our 4 regions as global demand for hotels operating under IHG's brands increased once again. As in previous years, the year-on-year comparability of our total revenue and operating profit are distorted by the impact of owned hotel sales, significant liquidated damages, the performance of managed leases and foreign exchange movements. I will therefore focus my attention this morning on our underlying performance, using constant 2013 exchange rates as this gives the best explanation of our financial outturn. We have converted our strong fee revenue increases into significant underlying profit growth with careful cost management and our continued focus on concentration resources in today's priority markets where we see high returns and long-term growth opportunity. Nearly 90% of our 2014 room openings were in these locations. I talked last year about our desire to maintain an efficient balance sheet, and net debt closed the year within our target leverage range, following the special dividend paid in July, with our interest charge increasing accordingly. I'll talk more about our capital allocation strategy and debt position later on. Our effective tax rate increased by 2 percentage points to 31%. As I have previously guided, we expect it to remain in the low to mid 30s for the next few years. Average shares outstanding declined following the share consolidation midway through the year and the completion of the share buyback. In aggregate, this enabled us to increase our underlying earnings per share by 12%. Demand growth in almost all of our key locations around the world led to further increases in occupancy rates, which across the year averaged 69.1%, the highest we have ever experienced. Given this level…

Richard Solomons

Management

Thanks, Paul. Okay. So our winning model, combined with a targeted brand portfolio underpinned by disciplined execution is driving superior returns for IHG shareholders. In the context of the changing macroeconomic environment I talked about earlier, our proven strategy puts us in a position of strength. In 2014, we continued to focus on enhancing our portfolio of preferred brands, as well as investing in technology and the digital elements of the guest's journey, which gives us a direct and personal relationship with consumers. This runs across all of our brands and we've pioneered in this space. I'll return to it later. But first of all, I'll talk about the progress we're making with our brands. I've spoken many times before about the in-depth research we undertook to look at the universe of guests' needs and occasions, a vital underpinning that continues to advantage us in the marketplace. Understanding these needs informs how we evolve each brand experience, as well as how we build our portfolio in order to build trusted and long-term relationships with our guests. The acquisition of Kimpton has helped us fill some of the white space in our brand offering, and it caters for a broad and varied range of guest needs with its differentiated boutique offer. It's an excellent fit in our portfolio and perfectly complements our organically developed boutique and lifestyle brands, Hotel Indigo and EVEN Hotels. And last week, we opened our first HUALUXE hotel, a brand which I'll talk more about shortly. But first, I'd like to cover the momentum behind our more established brands. The Holiday Inn brand family continues to be IHG's engine for growth. Holiday Inn offers the perfect mix of business and pleasure for our comfort-seeking guests. And Holiday Inn Express is the ideal choice for the smart traveler,…

David Kellett

Management

Now for the fun part. Questions. Jamie?

Jamie Rollo

Management

Jamie Rollo from Morgan Stanley. Three questions, please. First, on the net systems growth of 3.4%. That's a little above the sort of informal guidance you've been talking about. And you had a very strong fourth quarter for signings. Are you confident enough to suggest that, that figure might be even higher this year? Secondly, on the net CapEx guidance, now that's quite a big change from $350 million to $150 million. What's giving you the confidence you can recycle a couple of hundred million dollars a year? And I appreciate it's quite lumpy, but that's quite a big change. And then finally, on the restructuring in the U.K., $45 million exceptional, was that cash? And what sort of return are you getting from that?

Richard Solomons

Management

Paul?

Paul Edgecliffe-Johnson

Management

Thanks, Jamie. So in terms of the net systems growth, we're much more encouraged by the 3.4% that we achieved this year. That was a combination of 6% opening, so gross, and then a lower level of removals. And that level of removals was sort of bang in the center of our guidance of 2% to 3% removal per year. It is a bit lumpy year-by-year. So we saw that last -- we saw that in 2013. But if we can keep the removals between 2% and 3% and if we can achieve the level of signings that we've seen in the last few years, then I think we'll see continued strong progress there. In terms of the net CapEx, we talked at the interims around the buckets and where we spend and that we have the maintenance and key money is the -- it's really the permanent CapEx in the business, which in aggregate, is around $150 million. And then we've got recyclable CapEx which varies. And last year, we spent some and then we got some back with only $12 million, which is the Barclay spending. So that $150 million is the permanent. It may up in some years to $350 million, but the balance of it, we should get back in future years either through recycling or through the way the system fund depreciation works, it comes back to us as cash. So that's just a timing difference. And in terms of the U.K., that is restructuring a contract that we signed when we sold a portfolio in the U.K. back in 2005 for GBP 1 billion. The -- it is a cash charge, it was a contingent liability at the half year, and I talked about it then. And it will allow us to grow our business in the U.K. more rapidly and to avoid some cost growth that we would otherwise have seen. So we think we'll get a good return on it over time.

Jamie Rollo

Management

Can I just follow-up on the first one? Did you say in your presentation that 90% of the U.S. pipeline is expected to open in the next 3 years? Is that off the pipeline or the construction element?

Paul Edgecliffe-Johnson

Management

That's off the pipeline.

Richard Solomons

Management

Vicki [ph]?

Unknown Analyst

Management

Just on Germany, you talked about success on signings. Just curious to know, is that market changing now? Are banks sort of starting to get it in terms of management franchise contracts? And is that true across anywhere else in Europe? And then just secondly, on this sort of breakdown of OTA share, I think you often give a figure as to how much distribution is going via OTA, so if you could update us there?

Richard Solomons

Management

Just in Germany, if you're operating in 100 countries, you got ups and downs and things going on. I think in Germany, the reality is our success there has been about a real focus on how we grow there. You remember a couple of years ago or 3 years ago now, we reorganized to create Europe as a standalone region. And part of the objective was we saw an opportunity, which maybe we hadn't been tackling. So having a team that's very focused on Europe, which does have some different ownership dynamics in some other markets, certainly on the continent where leasing is more prevalent and there's a different group of owners. I think in Germany, we've kicked started a few hotel developments, and we've worked really hard on working with a different group of owners, so we're really gaining share there on the revenue side but also on the supply side by, I think being -- just tailoring our operations much more effectively. That's really what's behind that. In terms of OTAs, our OTA share is around 13% now, which obviously is significantly less than own direct bookings and our mobile bookings. With OTAs, our position has always been, if the business is incremental and profitable, that's good business. The hospitality industry's always had intermediaries, whether they're online or offline or wholesalers. And so our push in the last couple of years at OTAs has been to get rid of the low rate business. The opaque business is much less profitable and focus on better quality higher rate business, which is really what you've seen which is what's driven up that percentage. It's more about rate than anything else. Okay, Tim?

Timothy Barrett

Management

Tim Barrett from Nomura. Just on supply, can you talk about what percentage of the pipeline is under construction? That's normally data you give. And industry-wise, do you see any changes in the supply environment this year or next? And then I had a follow-up on the fourth quarter. There was a small slowdown in growth. Did abnormal weather or any one-off issues have any impact for you?

Richard Solomons

Management

Okay. I'll talk about first the supply chain. And then Paul, maybe you can pick up there. Do I think if we're seeing anything particularly different, no, I don't think so. I think one of the -- we've continue to see big supply growth in China and other parts of Asia. But as we've talked about many times before, we do very well when there's a growth in supply because we're actually the brand owner. We're driving our presence in the markets, 75% [ph] towards from 13% of supply, that's a very good dynamic for us. And then China RevPAR growth was 1.6%, I think. We grew fees 9.5%, so that's exactly talking to why the model works. The bigger issue always for us is demand, but not supply. I think in the U.S., there's been obviously a lot of focus on supply growth in the U.S. because it's been so low. And I think even now, we're forecasting below or the we're not forecasting -- the industry is forecasting below 2% to 2015. So it may tick up a little bit, but again, we've got a greater share of supply than we have -- of pipeline than we have with existing supplies. So again, that's probably a good thing for us. It comes back to us being able to drive our revenue line. It's nothing major that we're seeing anyway.

Paul Edgecliffe-Johnson

Management

No real change in the proportion that we're seeing under construction as well, and that's been fairly consistent. Yes, up 45%, yes with around 60% of it financed. So that's coming through well. In terms of the quarters and how the hotels were opening, if that was the question, Tim, apologies if I misunderstood. The first quarter of 2014 was a little slower. It was weather impacted in the U.S., in particular. And the fourth quarter, we had a really strong quarter of openings. I think we opened more hotels in December in the U.S. than we have for many years, which again, does come down to -- are the ground conditions right, can you get everything done. So we're very pleased with the adds in 2014.

Timothy Barrett

Management

Okay. I was asking about RevPAR in Q4, any. . .

Paul Edgecliffe-Johnson

Management

I'm sorry. So yes, RevPAR in Q4 in the U.S., 7.5% RevPAR growth, which we are pleased with. In China, it was a little weaker, which we initially saw through the year and we talked about. The Tier 1 cities continue to do very well in driving RevPAR, Tier 2 and Tier 3, where demand is still very high. It's double-digit demand. You still got a lot of supply coming in, so you're going to see more volatility. We've been driving our occupancy up. And we've been outperforming the market, which is the really important thing. But rate's still tougher then, but we saw very strong growth in our business there because of the number of new units that we've added.

James Ainley

Management

James Ainley from Citi. Two questions, please. Can you talk about recent dollar strength? And whether you're seeing any appreciable impact on visitation to the U.S., your U.S. hotels? And then moving onto the weaker oil price, again are you seeing a sort of pickup in domestic travel? Or are there any historic correlations you can share with us on the impact of a lower oil price on your business?

Richard Solomons

Management

So what was the first question, James?

James Ainley

Management

On dollar strength and whether there's impact from visitation.

Richard Solomons

Management

I think Paul talked about some of the dynamics around currency, but I think it's certainly too early for us to see any impact on dollar strength. So I think what it will be, if it affects anything, it will affect leisure travel later on in the year, we're not seeing that. I think on the oil price, again, it's relatively early days. A lot of travel business on leisure is booked in advance. It does take time for these things to work through, but I think lower oil price on balance will be good for the industry, certainly be good for us. And we know that gas prices impact very quickly the amount people drive in the U.S. And Holiday Inn is primarily a drive-to brand. So lower gas prices will benefit us. We've seen very clearly that as the local airlines have evolved that certainly, for leisure travelers, they sort of have, tend to have a budget they're going to spend. If they're spending less on air travel, finally, those fuel surcharges come down they're likely to stay longer or stay in better hotels, so I think all of that's going to be beneficial for the industry. Okay, Geof?

Geof Collyer

Management

Geof Collyer from Deutsche. A couple of questions. On the Big Win $500 million benefit you claimed, is that substitutional? Or is that incremental? And how can you prove it? And then secondly, a lot of the things that you're doing seem to be benefiting new members, how do existing -- how do nonmembers find out about the benefits? And therefore, how do you drive up the loyalty program? And then 2 sort of subsidiary questions. Hotel Indigo, at 20 percentage point increase in rate, is that just a young brand feeling more confident and growing to the rate that it should be trading at rather than some spectacular outperformance? And then finally, if you could just add a bit more color around the health claim comment and what sort of cost that was to you?

Richard Solomons

Management

Okay, I'll take the first two. Paul, maybe you take the second. So the Big Win it was $360 million, I think. We can round it up to $500 million, that's okay. A lot of that is incremental. I think always with these things, you do your best to evaluate how much is incremental, how much is substitutional. There's always going to be an element of substitutional, but because of the way these promotions are run digitally, that the data, the ability to look at control groups is better than you get in a typical ad campaign. So a large part of it is incremental. It's also very beneficial because it drives cross brand behavior which is one of the reasons why we relaunched Rewards Club last year, so it's got a double benefit for us on that front. And on loyalty, I think as we look at the planks of a commercial strategy around how we drive revenue, which is ultimately, is what owners are looking for us to do, drive revenue cheaply. Loyalty is a very big plank on that alongside digital, because that -- it clearly -- loyalty just in and of itself is helpful if you're getting a greater share of wallet because you have guests who are loyal to you. You also get a lot of data, enables you to talk directly to those customers, enable you to drive cross brand and get a bigger share of vacations. So it's a very big plank of our strategy is to drive revenues. And obviously, we encourage the hotels to sign up new guests. The one of the big rewards for front desk staff all around the world in every brand is to sign up new guests into Rewards Club. And as you drive things like free WiFi to guests, to members, and you've got those notices up, when you're advertising it, it drives sign up. And so it's -- it's been very successful and it works extremely well. And you're seeing it -- there's no question, it's one of the differentiators for big brands. With 84 million members, we are the biggest scheme. And it's a massive barrier-to-entry to those who don't have multi-schemes because it's very hard to create and replicate them. You see that even with some of the quite big brands out there who just haven't done this, haven't had a scheme very long. It's a real struggle to grow it to the scale of ours.

Paul Edgecliffe-Johnson

Management

Just in terms of your questions on the healthcare scheme and Indigo. So the healthcare scheme operating in the U.S. on a self-insured basis, so we collect premiums effectively across the business, across our hotel. And it's actuarially calculated to what will be enough to meet any costs of claim. This year, we just had a particularly bad run of large claims, which meant that we had a higher than average cost. We do get some small variance year-to-year normally it's not enough that we'll pull it out, but we have this year because it's a little bit more than normal. And in terms of Indigo, I mean Indigo is now up at 60 hotels. We are taking it into some of the higher RevPAR markets, so you are seeing some differentiating coming through from that, it's had a strong RevPAR performance, but it's still a relatively, although it's 10 year old, it's still a relatively new brand growing out.

Richard Solomons

Management

And your other point was about premium to the market, not rate, of course rate is a big piece of it. So obviously a few years ago, it was below in terms of -- it's now running at quite a big premium, which is what you see as you scale up the brand is it starts to benefit from our revenue-generating systems, which I think is what gives us confidence is we launch these new brands or as we take the Kimpton into the portfolio.

Simon Larkin

Management

It's Simon Larkin from Bank of America Merrill Lynch A couple of questions from me. First of all, could you update us on the progress in your relationship with Amadeus? And how the work you're doing with them links in with your technology presentation this morning? Secondly, could you also just quickly remind me how fast through you actually are at the brand refresh at Crowne Plaza and any performance stats you can give us to show that it's working and the performance gap versus payor group is improving?

Richard Solomons

Management

Yes. Thanks. First on Amadeus, there's nothing new to say on that so. What we signed was sort of cooperation agreement where we sat down together and said what might we be able to do. And let's work through that. And that's what we're doing. And these things take time as we look at what their interests are or what we need. And I think we've got a very clear digital strategy. And one of the points I made is that in order to deliver some of these cooler things to guests in the hotel, you have to have a powerful and standardized foundation. And so those are the things that one's looking at. And again, I think I said it and it is important that we're not a technology company, we're not a software house. And our industry's had a habit, and we've been the same of doing a lot of development ourselves. So the important thing is you own the intellectual property where it's a competitor advantage. You own the business rules that you use to operate the business. And anything else that is, effectively, commodity, you partner or outsource. And that's the philosophy that we have around technology. So we'll continue working, then we'll see if we can get somewhere. And when we do, then we'll let you know. But progressing as we would have expected. In terms of Crowne Plaza, I gave a few stats in there. And certainly, in terms of revenue, we have 10% revenue growth in that brand in the U.S., was significant in '14. We're continuing to grow RevPAR ahead of the market with that brand. We're continuing to sign hotels, so with 400 opened and another 100 or so in the pipeline and significantly 27 signings are set in the year. It's continuing to attract both customers and owners. Okay? Ian?

Ian Rennardson

Management

Ian Rennardson at Jefferies. Just on the Internet, I noticed that Hyatt is now giving free Internet to absolutely everybody, is that something you would see as inevitable? And if so, how much do you think that might cost you in lost revenue and profit over time? And coupled with that, what do you see as the next sort of big industry area for this sort of amenity creep.

Richard Solomons

Management

We already give free Internet in a lot of our hotels in a lot of markets, particularly Holiday Inn Express, but in some others, too. The reason that we give free Internet to Rewards Club members is, one, to reward them for being a member; and two, as the way to attract more people into the scheme. I don't know Hyatt's particular numbers, but whether you have a much, much smaller scheme, there's not much point in just giving it to scheme members because you don't cover enough of the guests. In terms of what it costs us, it doesn't cost us anything because it's paid for by the owner. But actually, more importantly, one of the reasons why the owners were happy and confident to go with this is that it's part of the overall brand offering, and ultimately, that gets reflected in what customers are prepared to pay, how often they come back. And also the way we're moving more and more now -- and again you've got to get the infrastructure right. If you get free basic Internet, but you can charge for high speed and you've all seen, I'm sure, in a lot of hotels that can actually be a revenue generator. And people expect it. If you can spend $0.99 on a McDonald's or $3 on a cup of coffee and get free Internet, it would be at a bit absurd for hotels to think it was going to, in any way, be different. In terms of the amenity creep, it's not a phrase I like really. I think much more about enhancing brand values and that sort of thing, but that is how you have to think because if it's just something that is purely a cost and doesn't -- to owners and doesn't benefit the guests, then there's no point in doing it. But to the extent that it again enhances the experience and that you can package it within what the brand stands for and charge for it, then it's beneficial. And you could even think about flat screen TVs, right? In the last few years, every hotels gone flat screen TV. You couldn't isolate an ROI on that, but it's an expectation of customers. So that guest insight that I go on about, is all about actually understanding what matters and making those choices about where you invest, which is why we're talking so much about digital today and some of the other innovations, the sleep experience [indiscernible] actually sleeps. Not on innovation, but actually that's what people are paying for. Wyn?

Wyn Ellis

Management

Wyn Ellis from Numis. Just a quick one on, I was looking at your -- the breakout of net debt by currency. And it's been quite a significant change there, there's a lot more sterling debt, I just wondered any particular reasons for that? Or what's the thinking behind it?

Richard Solomons

Management

We've got 2 sterling bonds, which we've had for some years, one 2016 and one at 2022 maturity. So it's a balance of that against the drawings that we've gotten and how they've been swapped that would impact on our net debt, but there's nothing to read into that or anything material.

Tim Ramskill

Management

It's Tim Ramskill from Credit Suisse. A couple of cost-related questions, so in the peer [ph] just finished in 2014, outside of the U.S., it looks like most of the overhead lines was sort of flat or may be slightly down, so that's little different than perhaps what we might have expected. Is there anything specific that explains that? And then sort of related to overheads, if we think back to 2009, you have the ability to take quite a lot of cost out of the business. Where we're at now, clearly, things are great. But if we were to face a more challenging environment, how much flexibility is there in the cost base at this stage? And then just because we've you and it's topical and it's always interesting to hear what you think, obviously, Airbnb remains sort of a potential elephant in the room, I just wonder how you guys think about it. What your potential responses are for that business growing?

Richard Solomons

Management

I'll take the Airbnb one and Paul, maybe you can pick up on the cost one. Yes, I think it's clearly topical, it's been a fast-growing business. I mean, there's many aspects to it. I think if you -- one of the, [indiscernible] has probably talked about it before. But even in the U.S., one of the most hoteled markets in the world, about 50% of citizens never stay in a hotel. And if you talk to the Airbnb guys, what they'll about is growing the market. And a big chunk of their business -- I don't know the number but a big chunk of it is people who wouldn't normally stay in a hotel. Airbnb is an alternative to staying with your mother-in-law and you don't want to necessarily stay in hotel but you'll rent an apartment next door. And that's -- so there's definitely a growth in the market there. Clearly, they operate with a different sort of customer at quite a low level of the market today. And I think if that grows and our customers who are loyal to our brands start seeing that as an opportunity, it's something we would essentially look at. We're extremely good at branding. We're extremely good at distribution. We're extremely good at technology so if it's a market that's genuine, we'd seriously look at it. I think that the discussion in the industry is much more about level-playing field, which I think is really appropriate for any industry whether it's digital versus traditional or anything else. And of course, the regulation that we're subject to around fire-life safety around building code, around security. All of those things needs to be fairly spread across all companies operating, particularly when they put themselves out there as a major player. So they talk about -- I got asked on the interview this morning, the media, the Airbnb has got a million rooms, that's more than your 710,000 rooms. And they put themselves out there as a big company so I think customers expect something. And it's very important that the regulators follow that, particularly something which is becoming more of an issue around zoning and planning. We're highly restricted from where we can build a hotel quite rightly. And I think the Airbnb hotels, people taking multiple units in the middle of residential areas, which -- I mean the U.K. government's talking about permitting which I think is going to cause some big community backlash, we're already seeing that. So I think, fairness of regulation is important even though it still a very small business at the moment. It doesn't really affect us, I think that's an appropriate way forward. Do you want to pick up on cost, Paul?

Paul Edgecliffe-Johnson

Management

Yes, in terms of the cost base, we've been very focused on growing the margin over time, which we've done for the last 11 years, I guess now, about 13 points. So we were always focused on efficiency. There's a couple of things we've talked about in recent years that have helped us, some of the programs around our global technology business, streamlining some of that and which helps us avoid some costs coming through in that and behind some of the programs we've done in our global human resources infrastructure, which has given us better management information, which has also helped, as well as just a culture of cost efficiency. So that has helped us partly in the U.S. where we had some sort of larger one-off items, have a good result in that area. We are, in 2015, so we're going to put some investment back into the business so we can continue to grow the top line. Look, in terms of comparison to 2009 and what could we do, I guess maybe like investment banks, a lot of our costs are people and we've got the people that we need to grow the business in this current economic climate. But there is an element of variable costs in that because it's people.

Tim Ramskill

Management

Can I just ask one more question? Can I just come back on the sort of cost comments for the year just gone? I know there was an exceptional cost related to restructuring, I think it was HR and technology piece. Has that brought a saving in the year? Or is there a saving coming from that going forward?

Paul Edgecliffe-Johnson

Management

Well, in the year and going forward, it's an ongoing program, which has helped us avoid cost increases that we would have otherwise seen, yes.

Nick Edelman

Management

It's Nick Edelman from Goldman Sachs. Just 2 questions, please, both on China. Firstly, just in terms of RevPAR outlook for 2015, is there anything clear in terms of supply outlook that would suggest that the fourth quarter run rate will continue into 2015? And then secondly, in terms of the ongoing RevPAR performance now on a comparable basis, for your own hotel owners, how does that compare with either their expectations or their cost inflation in terms of -- is their hotel profitability lower than their plan? And does that, in the near term, affect your signings at all?

Richard Solomons

Management

No, I think in China, there's no precedent in China in any way. So it's hard to, I think, give specific forecast. I think the important thing for us though is you can see and we -- Paul shared some of the data on our relative outperformance in China, on our level of signings, our level of openings. Our RevPAR performance has consistently been outperforming the market. So I think China maybe one of those markets where you had maybe a more polarized view of winners and losers. And because we've been there a long time, we have a great portfolio of owners. We have brands that have been tailored. We have a unique brand we've just launched. We're in an extremely good place to win, and I think you're seeing the results of that. Forecasting quarterly RevPAR in China is well, I guess we do it. But when -- it's not something that I think would be our most accurate forecast around the group. So I think you have to take a long-term view with China. And you look at infrastructure, GDP growth, the creation of the middle class demographics, on any measure, as we've talked about on many occasions over the years, China is going to be a great hotel market. It's already our second largest market. In the shorter term, everything we're doing is enabling us to win share, supply and revenue share in that market. And I think that's how you need to judge us and that's what's really been driving our success. So very confident about it. And I think -- I do think the 9.5% revenue growth on a 1.6% RevPAR growth really talks to the strength of our business down there. And the last point I'd make is that the owners there take very long-term views of their investment. They're very sophisticated, owners in China these days. They meant -- certainly way more than 10 years ago. They look at the business exactly like any other owner. A lot of the hotel developments are necessary parts of mix use. So unlike the Europe and America where they're very standalone there, they are almost -- they're very rarely standalone, so they ended up with a different dynamic. And fundamentally, they want to make money, and that's why they come to IHG rather than to anybody else. Anything else? Is that on track?

Paul Edgecliffe-Johnson

Management

Just in terms of the question on expectations of owners and around cost increases. I think the RevPAR in the U.S. certainly was higher than I think most owners expected going into 2014, particularly in the leisure segment. So I think there was positive news from them on the revenue side. And in terms of costs, the energy costs have come off from where they were. And we're not seeing too much people costs increases, so I think most of our owners have had a good year in 2014.

Richard Solomons

Management

Thank you, everybody.

Paul Edgecliffe-Johnson

Management

Till next time.