Jay Flatley
Analyst · Morgan Stanley
Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. I'm pleased with our operational and financial results for the fourth quarter. We delivered strong revenue growth as we continue to scale the production of our sequencing instruments and consumables. This enabled us to reduce lead times for the HiSeq instruments, and cleared a backlog of multi-visit launch promotions, paving the way for gross margin improvement in 2011. The market for the HiSeq system continues to be robust. And as a result, Q4 orders were at record levels, excluding the BGI [Beijing Genomics Institute] order recorded in Q4 2009. Total revenue grew 45% year-over-year, and we exited the year with the largest backlog in the company's history. In the field, the HiSeq transition continues to go extremely well. Customers are consistently generating runs yielding throughput well above our product specification. To meet demand, we increased HiSeq manufacturing capacity by approximately 30% over Q3, and now believe we're in a position to materially reduce customer lead times. As Christian mentioned earlier, we're seeing encouraging uptake in HiSeq consumables as more customers place instruments in production and increased utilization. In fact, in the fourth quarter, the incoming order rate for HiSeq consumables was equivalent to that of the Genome Analyzer. Total Q4 microarray revenue grew sequentially and year-over-year, lead by strong results in array instrumentation, partially offset by a sequential decline in array consumable shipments. Total consumable orders and shipments were particularly strong in the third quarter given the end of the NIH fiscal year, and consumable orders continue to grow in Q4 adding to the array backlog. GWAS shipments in Q3 were strong as a result of the first full quarter of Omni 2.5 availability but down sequentially, in Q4, as these customers focused on execution of their rare variant pilot projects. We expect to see results from these studies around midyear, and believe that some customers are waiting for results before commencing studies on our rare variant arrays such as the Omni 2.5 and the upcoming Omni 5. Looking at 2011, we anticipate that positive results from the rare variant pilot studies will renew demand for GWAS. Overall, orders for total array consumables grew 7% sequentially, and 14% year-over-year. We are in development of the Omni 5, which is expected to increase genomic coverage and incorporate additional rare variant content from the 1,000 genomes project. We plan to ship the Omni 5 this summer. In early January, we enhanced our iSelect custom array product line introducing three new formats that allow complexity up to 1 million custom markers. In addition to increased complexity, customers have the option to augment their content at any time after they design the initial chip. We feel this is a highly compelling offering for researchers who want to add new content to their association studies produced by ongoing sequencing projects. We generated record revenue in microarray instrumentation in Q4, as we were able to reduce our backlog of HiScan and HiScanSQ systems. In fact, array instrument revenue more than doubled from Q4 last year and nearly doubled from last quarter. Orders for HiScan and HiScanSQ also grew sequentially, as customers showed continued demand for the platform's flexibility to perform sequencing and array applications on a single instrument. As most of you know, last summer, we announced the acquisition of Helixis and at the same time, launched the Eco Real-Time PCR System. In Q4, Eco orders tripled, and shipments nearly tripled over the third quarter. We've received positive customer feedback on the system's high-performance and attractive price points, and continue to focus on scaling Eco manufacturing with the expectation of marching market demand by the middle of 2011. We're in the process of moving Eco manufacturing to Singapore and expect to place it under GNP by the end of 2011 in anticipation of increasing diagnostic applications. Turning now to our sequencing business. We had another outstanding quarter. Total sequencing revenue grew by over 70% from the fourth quarter of last year and continues to be supported by broad adoption of the HiSeq 2000. Excluding genome centers, over 75% of the HiSeq shipments included Genome Analyzer trade-ins. This mix of shipments was the primary contributor to lower gross margins compared to Q3. Looking to Q2 2011, we expect the impact of the Genome Analyzer trade ins on gross margin to taper off beginning in the first quarter. The breath of the market opportunity for HiSeq has continued to exceed our expectations. Notably this week, we passed through 1,400 peer review publications citing SBS chemistry. Nearly 90% of Q4 HiSeq orders came from outside of major Genome centers. By simplifying the sequencing workflow, increasing accuracy and dramatically lowering the cost per Genome, HiSeq is truly redefining the trajectory of sequencing and expanding the market. In addition to expanding the market, we believe we grew our relative share of this market in Q4. In fact, just recently, we received a significant order from a major Genome center that is not previously scaled on Illumina technology. Part of this market expansion also includes whole human Genome sequencing through the Illumina Genome network. Our partner-based model allows us to flexibly leverage sequencing capacity across the network in addition to our internal capacity. We recently received a multi-hundred Genome order from a major pharmaceutical company through this service, and have over 1,000 Genomes in backlog from a wide range of customer types. Early in January at the JPMorgan Conference, we shared several recent improvements that we've made to our TruSeq SBS chemistry. One result of these improvements was a demonstration of multiple sequence runs, which have generated over 1 terabase of data per run or 1 trillion basis of genetic information. By our estimates, we believe that one run of HiSeq at these levels generates more sequence data than the entire world generated in 2007. With these system improvements, we've been able to increase throughput a factor of 1,000 from 1G to over 1T of data per run in just four years. These 1T runs took approximately 14 days and utilized 2 x 150 base paired-end reads. We plan to commercialize the underlying improvements through a series of software and reagent releases beginning this spring. The first of these is a 2 x 100 base pair kit, which is currently running at early access customer sites. We expect this kit to enable the entire HiSeq install base to generate about 600 G of throughput per run with no increase in current run times and no upgrades to the hardware. Through new entymology in these kits, we've been able to increase cluster density while simultaneously improving accuracy. Customers will now be able to sequence five Genomes per run, which will drive down the reaging cost per Genome well below $5,000. Much of our development work in sequencing has been focused on increasing throughput. As we've done that, we've also brought down chemistry cycle time to keep overall run times in check. We've recently made major improvements that have allowed us to bring our chemistry cycle times down by a factor of five. And last month, we debuted the benefits of this breakthrough in our new MySeq [ph] personal sequencing system. MySeq is an easy-to-use, low-cost sequencing system with a compact footprint, just 2 feet square. The beauty of MySeq is that it utilizes the same TruSeq SBS chemistry that powers the HiSeq and the Genome Analyzer, and supports complete work flows from sample to data in less than eight hours. The sequencing capabilities of the platform are entirely flexible and can perform single, 36 base pair reads, all the way up to 2 x 150 base pair reads, yielding as much as 1.5G of data depending on the application. This represents more than 10x the data generated by comparably priced systems. HiSeq will be priced below $125,000 all in. An additional breakthrough of MySeq is that it does not require any peripherals to support sample prep or analysis. The cluster generation step of the TruSeq workflow is performed on the system and eliminates the need for a cBOT instrument. MySeq has an onboard computer powerful enough to handle control of the instrument, base calling, and secondary analysis. MySeq is also capable of cloud connectivity so sequence data and analytical reports can be uploaded and shared easily between teams. We took the human interaction concept pioneered on the HiSeq platform to the next level on MySeq to facilitate broad market adoption. The reagents for MySeq are premixed and packaged into a simple, single reagent cartridge that includes an RFID [ph] chip for tracking. The customer simply puts the sample into the cartridge and places it in the system, looks to sell, which is also RFID-enabled and they're ready to sequence. We expect total per run prices to range from about $400 to $750 per run. Along with the introduction of MySeq, we also announced the acquisition of Madison, Wisconsin based Epicentre Biotechnologies. Epicentre is the leading innovator in next-generation, sequencing sample prep technology, has also developed a broad portfolio of specialty enzymes. I'm happy to welcome the entire Epicentre team to Illumina and look forward to great contributions to our product evolution. The leading product in the Epicentre portfolio is the Nextera assay that enables a radical reduction in library prep time across all of our sequencers. In the eight-hour MySeq workflow I mentioned previously, cycle time reduction is a key driver but the new Nextera library kit is as well. The Nextera kit allows ultralow sample input and can generate sequencer-ready libraries in less than two hours. We're extremely excited about the future possibilities that we see with Epicentre to further improve and simplify the workflow across our product lines. The initial feedback we received on MySeq has been extremely positive. Last week, at HEBT, customers commented on numerous applications where they believe MySeq will offer distinct advantages, such as targeted resequencing, small sequencing, clinical screening applications, and QCing quantification for high throughput labs. Interestingly, several of our larger customers commented on how they will use the system to rapidly and cost-effectively develop new applications, which can then be ported over to the high-throughput HiSeq system. We will begin taking orders for MySeq in April and plan to ship early access units by the middle of the year with volume production in Q4. In many respects, Q4 was our best quarter of 2010. We generated very strong year-over-year and sequential revenue growth. We successfully transitioned a significant number of customers to the HiSeq platform, and we're able to maintain gross margins within our long-term model. Through disciplined expense management, we delivered operating margins over 31% and generated a record $81 million of operating cash flow resulting in free cash flow of $69 million or $0.49 per share. Our Array business is stable and continues to demonstrate a valuable and complementary relationship to our sequencing portfolio across multiple markets. Together, the two technologies are a powerful combination unique to Illumina and validated by the strong uptake of the HiScanSQ platform. We continue to believe that rare variant based discovery will renew GWAS growth in the back half of the year as we see the results of ongoing proof of principle studies and launch the Omni 5. Looking back on 2010, it was a transformational year for the company. We grew total revenue by 35% and generated $223 million in free cash flow or $1.66 per share. We managed through the launch of the most successful product in the company's history and generated over $1 billion in orders, ending the year with a record backlog of approximately $300 million. In 2011, we see no signs that the demand for sequencing will slow down. The global funding environment for our markets remains stable, the continued improvements in TruSeq chemistry will enable whole Genome cost on HiSeq below $5,000 opening new markets and enabling much larger sequencing studies. And finally, the introduction of MySeq has rounded out our portfolio very nicely to deliver TruSeq chemistry and next-generation sequencing to a broader market, including exciting clinical applications. Thank you for your time, and we'll now open the lines to your questions.