Francis deSouza
Analyst · JPMorgan. Your line is now open. Please go ahead
Sure, so, you may have an interesting point about the look back and there is an apparel that I wanted to pick up that you touched on which is, what we saw before is that, when we launch a new instrument, and customers transition and you touched on when we launched DX. But I’ll even go a little bit further than that and talk about when we launched the HiSeq what we saw is that as customers migrate to a bigger instrument, and in the HiSeq case, there was a couple of quarters where we saw the pull-through, drop for a couple of quarters and then pick up again. And that played out again a few years later as you touched on with DX. And so, when I just talked about the desktop side of the portfolio and customers are migrating up to a bigger instrument, so they were moving to the NextSeq DX for example from MiSeq, that’s the exact same phenomenon. Right, so, what we’ve learned from our customers is that, when they buy a bigger box, it’s an expectation that they have – that they will have more business and that’s typically how it plays out. And it doesn’t play out in the quarter that they buy a box. In some cases, for example, a couple of quarters in the case of that, the HiSeq. And so, so that’s the elasticity fact we are seeing. Separately, you talked about the drivers of that we expect to see going forward in the business and some of the drivers include things like, as you touched on the population sequencing efforts for example, that are starting to ramp up. So for example, UK Biobank ramped up at the tail end of Q3. That’s going to play out not just in Q4. But all through 2020. We talked about All of Us that's going to start in the beginning of 2020. So really wasn’t a factor in 2019 at all, but it’s going to play out over 2020. Similarly the NHS, it wasn’t a factor at all and in fact this year we were caught in the gap between Gel winding down. And so, less revenue this year from Gel than we had last year and the NHS not yet ramping up. And that will be a factor next year. And so, those are some of the things that we expect to be incremental next year over this year.