Earnings Labs

Imperial Oil Limited (IMO)

Q2 2020 Earnings Call· Fri, Jul 31, 2020

$127.74

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Transcript

Dave Hughes

Management

Good morning, everybody. Thanks for joining us on our second quarter earnings call. To start, I'm just going to introduce the senior management here in our virtual room. We have Brad Corson, Chairman, President and CEO; Dan Lyons, Senior Vice President, Finance and Administration; Theresa Redburn, Senior Vice President of Commercial and Corporate Development; and Simon Younger, Senior Vice President of the Upstream. So I mean, as you know I'm going to start with the cautionary statements and note that today's comments may contain forward-looking information. Any forward-looking information is not a guarantee of future performance, and actual future financial and operating results can differ materially depending on a number of factors and assumptions. Forward-looking information and the risk factors and assumptions are described in further detail in our second quarter earnings press release that we issued this morning as well as our most recent Form 10-K and all these documents are available on SEDAR, EDGAR and on our website. So, please refer to those. The format as usual, we will start with some opening remarks from Brad. And then Dan is going to take us through the financial results. And then back to Brad for an operational update. Once that’s done, we’ll then go to Q&A. So with that, I'll turn it over to Brad.

Brad Corson

Management

Thanks Dave. Well, good morning everybody, and welcome to our second quarter earnings call. I hope each of you and your families are staying healthy as we continue to manage through these challenging times. As you know, we’ve been faced with unprecedented health and market conditions over the last quarter. And unfortunately, many of the impacts are still with us today. But as a company, we have been able to demonstrate our ability to adapt quickly and although our second quarter results reflect just how challenging the environment has been, I am pleased with our response across the organization. This response along with our strong balance sheet and level of integration has allowed us to weather the storm without taking on further debt, and positions the company well to capture the value of improving market conditions going forward. Before we get started with reviewing the second quarter financial and operating results, I want to take a minute to give a quick update on our efforts to manage the health and safety of our workforce during the COVID pandemic. As you’re aware, we talked on the first quarter earnings call about multiple cases of COVID at our Kearl asset. I detailed at that time, the steps we were taking to manage and address the situation, such as working closely with Alberta Health Services, making voluntary COVID testing available to all employees and contractors at Kearl and various other steps such as changing our location schedules, reducing capacity on flights and buses, and ensuring our workforce is employing best practices with safe distancing and use of proper protective equipment. And as a result of these efforts, I'm very pleased to say that Alberta Health Services declared the COVID outbreak to be over as of June 14. In fact, we have not had…

Dan Lyons

Management

Thanks Brad. Our second quarter results were a loss of $526 million as compared to earnings of $1.2 billion in the second quarter of 2019. Driven by growth rising commodity prices at the end of the second quarter, our second quarter 2020 earnings include a non-cash gain of $281 million associated with the reversal of the inventory write-down we took in the first quarter. Looking sequentially and excluding non-cash charges, we were down $900 million from the first quarter of 2020, driven by low oil and product prices and COVID-19 demand impacts. These negative factors were partially offset by the substantial reductions in production and manufacturing expenses mentioned by Brad. Looking at performance by business line, Upstream recorded a net loss of $444 million in the second quarter of 2020, compared to a net loss of $608 million in the first quarter. Excluding the favorable non-cash impacts of the inventory revaluation change in the first quarter and its reversal in the second, results were down about $300 million from the first quarter. These results were mainly driven by lower realizations and lower volumes partially offset by our focused efforts to reduce operating expenses. Turning to the downstream. Downstream results decreased about $430 million from net income of $402 million in the first quarter to a net loss of $32 million in the second quarter. Again, excluding the impact of the non-cash inventory revaluation, results were down around $530 million. Results were negatively impacted by lower margins and lower sales volumes. These items were partially offset by favorable foreign exchange effects and lower operating expenses associated with our cost reduction efforts. Chemical earned $7 million in the second quarter compared to $21 million in the first quarter of 2020, with the change primarily driven by lower margins. Looking at cash flow,…

Brad Corson

Management

Thanks, Dan. Upstream production averaged 347,000 oil equivalent barrels a day in the second quarter, reflecting significant turnaround activity at Kearl, Cold Lake and Syncrude. While volumes were down 53,000 barrels per day versus the second quarter of 2019, we continue to see exceptionally strong performance at Kearl. As I told you on the first quarter earnings call, we expected Upstream production volumes to be negatively impacted in the second quarter as we dealt with the unprecedented drop in demand, as Canada along with the rest of the world dealt with unnecessary travel restrictions, self-isolation and social distancing measures to address the global pandemic. And in fact, we did see our production volumes drop 72,000 barrels per day versus the first quarter, due in large part the steps we chose to take to optimize turnarounds in the current environment. However, even with the reduced demand we have seen so far this year, we still expect to see a slight year-on-year volume growth, albeit less than originally planned. I would also note that we are not driven by volumes, but rather value. And at current prices, the value equation drives us to maximize production. So, that is exactly what we are doing once the turnarounds are completed. And with our focus on reducing cost, our year-to-date production and manufacturing expenses in the Upstream are down almost 15% versus the first half of 2019. Now while no one should be surprised that volumes are down this quarter, let me tell you about the positive side of this. And that's Kearl. In the second quarter, we produced 190,000 barrels a day on a gross basis at Kearl, down from 226,000 barrels per day in the first quarter, and down from 207,000 barrels a day in the second quarter of 2019. The lower production…

A - Dave Hughes

Management

Okay, thanks, Brad. We did have a couple of questions submitted in advance. So, I think we'll go to those and then we'll move over to the live Q&A. So, the first question Brad comes from Menno Hulshof with TD. It's on Grand Rapids. The plan as of late last year was to develop the Grand Rapids to Cold Lake declines with start-up targeted for 2021. How much has this plan changed given the downturn and is 2023 still a reasonable expectation for sustained recovery to 150 plus thousand barrels a day?

Brad Corson

Management

Thanks for that question, Menno. Grand Rapids continues to be a high priority growth project for us for the reasons I described, both in terms of its contributions to our cost structure, obviously, volumes, which we expect to be quite profitable, but also has a material impact in lowering the greenhouse gas intensity of our operations. So, through this very challenging time, it continues to be a priority for us. We have had to slow it down, just to manage kind of COVID safe distancing, which impacts the exit schedule, but the team has the team has been very creative and working hard to see how they can maintain schedule as best as possible. Our current outlook shows that we would expect to complete the first pad and be able to start injecting steam in early 2022 and would have volumes produced thereafter. And so at this point, we're still quite optimistic that by 2023, we will see a substantial contribution from Grand Rapids. And obviously, that is a key enabler to us, sustaining recovery to 150,000 barrels a day. Now when we have our Investor Day in November, our plan is to give a complete update on Grand Rapids as well as Cold Lake in general. And so we'll be able to talk more specifically to what that volume profile looks like in the years. So thank you for that question.

Dave Hughes

Management

And Menno also had a follow-up. With the full understanding it’s still very early days in terms of setting the 2021 budget. Can you directionally talk us through some of the key considerations across your upstream and downstream assets assuming the strip?

Brad Corson

Management

Yeah, and I refer you’re -- I assume you're mostly talking to our capital budget in that regard. And you are right. It is early days, we're right in the middle of our business planning cycle, which we would expect to conclude over the next couple of months. Where we started this year, of course, was we expected to have capital spending at the $1.6 billion to $1.7 billion level and we very purposely adjusted that in light of the market conditions to a lower -- a $500 million lower number of $1.1 billion to $1.2 billion. And as you heard in my comments and Dan's comments, we're well on track to delivering that. And so if you were to assume that, we would end up the year somewhere around that $1.1 billion to $1.2 billion range, I think we're going to find ourselves somewhere close to that number for next year, maybe a bit higher. I don't see us returning to the 1.6 to 1.7. But we'll be somewhere in that range. And I would say the key is that, we're approaching next year very much as we are currently in that where we absolutely have to progress the sustaining capital projects that maintain safety, integrity, reliability of the operations. We do have some high value selective growth projects, like Cold Lake that I just spoke to, and we've got some in the downstream, as well as infrastructure projects as well. And so we want to progress those as timely as we can. A big question right now is, what will the COVID situation look like, as we finish up this year and move into next year? And so because of that, we're going to maintain flexibility with our plans, just as we did this year. And so again, in November at Investor Day, we'll paint maybe a more clear picture of exactly what that updated guidance is for next year. But as I said, it's going to be somewhere in the range between where we end up this year versus where we expected to start this year.

Dave Hughes

Management

And next question comes from Prashant Rao at Citi. Debt remained controlled through the quarter expectedly net debt-to-capital moved up. Does it feel like where the balance sheets been at the end of the quarter as pretty much the high end of where leverage will go during this downturn, or is there room to gear up a bit more, if needed?

Brad Corson

Management

Well, I might turn that over to Dan, and let Dan talk a little bit about where we are with debt-to-capital and our views there.

Dan Lyons

Management

Sure. Clearly, we have plenty of ability to lever up if that is what's needed. We have quite a bit of undrawn committed facilities. We have ready access with our credit rating and commercial paper in term debt markets, as I said. Now, the question is, why we need to do that and that's going to depend on market conditions. I think we're optimistic with market conditions and pricing has improved pretty, pretty dramatically from a really kind of horrific April to June being much better month for the industry. With those kind of continued improvements, we're optimistic we won't have to increase debt. But obviously if we do, we have the capability and we'll do that as needed.

Dave Hughes

Management

Prashant had a follow up also how to downstream utilization trends sequentially through the quarter? And based on 3Q to-date is 80% plus a reasonable expectation for the third quarter? Related to this, can you please discuss how the impacts to your downstream network due to the pandemic may have differed from peers, both Canadian and U.S.?

Brad Corson

Management

Okay, thanks for that question Prashant, over the course of the quarter, obviously a lot of volatility. Certainly, we changed our turnaround plans, as I described, and that move some significant downtime into the quarter, especially with Sarnia, which is continuing. We had some smaller, smaller downtime event that at Strathcona, as I mentioned, as well. And so, that was kind of the foundational piece of it, which again, we made those decisions based on our assessment of significantly reduced demand for our products. And that was the other key driver. Every day that downstream organization is optimizing their crude runs around what the demand profile looks like. And that was sharply down in the month of April. We saw it pick up in May in June. And so as a result, over the quarter, our utilization ranged from 60% at the low end back in April to 75% at the high end, and in June, July was also kind of in that range of around 75%. And who knows what, the rest of the year will look like at this point. Again, we're going to be well positioned to operate at high utilization rates. Should the market demand and the economics be there to support that. We're very encouraged by some of the demand profiles we're seeing, as I talked about, in all three key segments. Motor gasoline, we're seeing improvements, diesel, we're seeing improvements. And even in jet, we're seeing some improvements. Now, those improvements have been right here at the peak of the summer months, and as we all know, unfortunately, we are seeing some increased COVID cases across the country. And so a big question, as to what that recovery period will look like? We continue to be optimistic that we'll continue on this positive trend. But there's still uncertainty with that. Your question about, how disease impacts compared with our peers, both Canadian and U.S.? I think they're very much in line with what we've seen across the industry. Although, each operator is having to make individual choices based on kind of their own specific economic situation. But I feel very good about where our downstream is positioned, coming out of the second quarter and now moving into the third quarter. Thank you for that Prashant.

Dave Hughes

Management

Okay, we're going to switch over operator to the live Q&A. We just asked folks please to as usual one question and one follow-up.

Operator

Operator

Certainly. [Operator instructions] Our first question comes from Greg Pardy with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Greg Pardy

Analyst

Thanks, hey. Good morning all. Brad, you touched on the state management challenges at Nabiye and I was just wondering if you could add a bit more color there in terms of how problematic it is? I mean, I bet that project has had a checkered past, I think as we all know. But just wondering if you can round that out a bit?

Brad Corson

Management

Yeah Greg, good to hear from you. And thanks for the question. Nabiye has been a challenged project for us, with mainly because of the reservoir performance and some surprises there, with how the reservoir is responding to steam. And so we continue to learn with that and we have seen some even slightly lower production than what we had anticipated for this period of the year. And that's causing us to slightly revise downward our thoughts on Cold Lake for the year. I would still say it's nothing too material in the context of Imperials overall oil production volumes. And the bright side, the upside is that with Grand Rapids, we're going to put that unused steam to good use and efficiently develop the Grand Rapids reservoir. So, not probably more, will take more time at the Investor Day to talk about Nabiye. But I wouldn't be overly concerned about it in the big picture of Imperial. And as you just heard, we are far kind of compensating for any slight Nabiye reduction with what's going on with Kearl.

Greg Pardy

Analyst

Yeah no, no, for sure, for sure. And then just the second question I guess just on CBR just crude by rail movements. And we know that's pretty dormant market right now. But can you comment on maybe how much you had moving in the second quarter. And then what the thinking is to the balance of the year? It's got to be pretty limited, I would think just given spreads, but wanted ask that anyway?

Brad Corson

Management

Yeah, no, it's a fair question. And normally, I would cover it in my remarks at the front end of the call. But you're exactly right. It has been very limited this quarter. So, I didn't really feature it. But in direct answer to your question, over the quarter we moved on average about 15,000 barrels per day. But that was all third-party volumes. So, for Imperial volumes, we did not move any on rail over the quarter. As we look forward, to the rest of the year, as we've always said, having rail available to us is a very strategic insurance policy for us to ensure that we have multiple avenues of egress for our produced volumes. And so as production continues to pick-up over the course of the year, it's very possible that rail will come back into the mix especially depending on the arbitrage for movements between here and the Gulf Coast. So, it is possible that it will pick-up at the end of the year. But as we sit here today, it has very limited utility. And in fact, I think, even Genscape shows that over the entire industry there it's probably 30,000 to 45,000 barrels a day is all that's moving on rail right now. And a lot of that's just because there's surplus capacity in pipe, which of course generally is the more cost-efficient means of transportation. But again, we're starting to get signals that some of that surplus capacity is about to get consumed, as we move well into the third quarter or so. So again, that may come back into question.

Greg Pardy

Analyst

Right. Understood. Thanks very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from Benny Wong with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

Benny Wong

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Brad, appreciate your thoughts around egress and differential there. I guess just taking a one step further. Obviously, we've seen some headlines around Line 5 and DAPL. I guess, just wanted to get your perspective. There's risk of Line 5 being disrupted for an extended period, maybe talk about your flexibility and optionality there for your refineries in eastern Canada? And for DAPL just curious in terms of you have any thoughts? If there's an extended disruption, what impact that might have on some of the synthetic and NSW differentials on that side?

Brad Corson

Management

Yeah, thanks for your question, Benny. In terms of Line5, we saw a very short-term disruption last month, I guess, as a result of at the time, some concerns about that line, but fairly quickly and which was able to work with the regulator and convince them that it was that the integrity was sound and it was appropriate to put it back in service and they got support for that. And that's where we are today. And so, we feel quite good about the reliability of Line 5 going forward based on our understanding of the nature of those concerns. So we really don't view that there's much risk for us to have any extended interruption on Line 5. But having said that, the interruption we had obviously caused us to mobilize contingency plans. And through that, we were able to put plans in place that would sufficiently cover our refinery demands, both with the potential for alternate pipeline supply as well as rail and if needed even waterborne supplies. So, our downstream team reacted very quickly to make sure there would be no interruption to our operations. And fortunately there weren't. But that has given us confidence going forward as well. In terms of DAPL, DAPL really doesn't affect us directly. We're not acquiring any Bakken crude directly from that system. Certainly, it has the potential with an extended outage that, that it could impact the differentials on the light cruise and of course, our refineries on balance run a light slate. And so, any widening of that differential could certainly be advantageous for us.

Benny Wong

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

Got it. I appreciate those thoughts, Brad. My second question is really around the interconnect pipeline with Syncrude. Just curious in terms of how strategically and how you guys manage that project is going to change going forward. It's increasingly more tied to run core assets and how they operate it? Just curious in terms of how you guys think about that commercially and strategically? And correct me if I'm wrong. But I believe that the partners are responsible for managing their own barrels. If that is the case, then how does that change going forward when there's much more interconnect within those two plants?

Brad Corson

Management

Yeah Benny, I guess what I would say is, first of all, this project is viewed as having balanced strategic benefits between both Syncrude and Suncor. And that underpins kind of the commercial framework that's in place. Broadly speaking having that interconnection does provide flexibility for both operations during periods of both planned and unplanned downtime. And by having that flexibility, it should allow for overall improved production. And so that's the objective. It's not appropriate for me to get into the commercial terms of that. But needless to say, the partners are all actively engaged in how those decisions are made, how the pipeline is operated, how the value is shared, to make sure it's all fair and appropriate. But we feel very good about having that additional flexibility for Syncrude.

Benny Wong

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

Great. Thanks Brad.

Brad Corson

Management

And as I mentioned, Benny, it is progressing towards fourth quarter startups. So that's very positive, that we've been able to kind of keep that moving ahead during the pandemic.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Emily Chieng with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

Emily Chieng

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

Hi, good morning. I just have one question, and it's around your latest view around M&A. I guess the question is now that we have seen a couple of instances in the market. It seems like modest premiums up perhaps more manageable by potential targets. What are the hurdles that you think about if at all when you think about inorganic transactions?

Brad Corson

Management

Yeah, thanks for that question, Emily. And as you can imagine, we're watching that space very closely. M&A is something that we do look at, we do consider as we think about, what are prudent investment choices and growth choices for the long-term? And as I've shared with you and others on earlier calls, we are keeping that aperture open for any potential opportunities that we think would make very good strategic economic sense for us and our shareholders. The market continues to be, I think, a bit volatile when it comes to M&A. I don't really speak to the two key transactions that were announced in the last month. I'm going to say, clearly there was a very unique fit between the purchaser and the seller, and that's what allowed those transactions to go forward. But I would still say on balance, there is probably a pretty wide, if you will, bid ask spread between sellers and buyers that is driven by different views of the price market. Now we have seen a little bit more stability in the month of June and now into July with crude prices, so maybe that does create some space for alignment. But I think that's the biggest question Mark right now, and especially if people are wondering, is the COVID recovery going to continue on the current path? Or is there going to be a setback? All those things weigh heavily on investors' minds. And so I think it's going to continue to be a fairly slow M&A market in the foreseeable future. There might be some one-off transactions, but I don't think there's going to be a big wave sparked by these most recent transactions. Thanks for your question, Emily.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from Asit Sen with Bank of America. Your line is open.

Asit Sen

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open.

Thanks. Good morning. Brad, thanks for all the details on Kearl, if I could follow-up on that. You've been able to ramp-up production up and down fairly successfully. The supplemental crushers have clearly helped and you're exceeding the unit cost production target. And could you provide an estimate for let's again, it's a moving target on WCS pricing, where revenues cover your variable cost and then I thought I heard you talking about maximizing production at current pricing. Could you elaborate on that?

Brad Corson

Management

Yeah, thanks for that question. I mean, again Kearl’s a very positive story for us and certainly, being able to have a highly reliable operation with a continued improving and increasingly competitive cost structure puts us in this position where we do want to maximize production. And we have seen although, prices in April and May were very challenged, realizations were very, very low. In the month of June, we have seen the prices recover pretty significantly, at least relative to where we were. And so in terms of WTI, we've seen that pretty stable in that whatever $41 and $42 range. But equally important to Kearl is what happens with a differential and as you mentioned that WCS differential has actually strengthened and remained quite tight over the last couple of months. And so that results in realizations for Kearl, that are quite competitive for us, quite profitable for us. And so, that's why we're certainly keen to get this turnaround behind us. And we'll be there in just a few weeks. And then there should be no barriers for us maximizing production that Kearl and maximizing cash flow at Kearl. And as I said earlier, I'm just super thrilled with the performance of the organization, not just volumes, but especially what they've been able to do on the cost structure. When we set out our expectations back at Investor Day for that $4 per barrel reduction in unit cost, that was going to get us in the mid-20s by the end of this year. But I'll just tell you we're operating every day in the low 20s now. And so, this ultimate target of $20 a barrel is just around the corner for us. So, I'm quite encouraged by that.

Asit Sen

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open.

Appreciate, that's very helpful Brad. And if I could follow-up on the cost turnaround that you mentioned, I thought 40% lower cost in the program. Outside of labor costs, such as moving away from contractors, what are some of the other areas of savings? Any particular buckets that you want to highlight that could be used in future tournaments?

Brad Corson

Management

Yeah, I mean, a couple things I would say would be first of all, technology. I think that is a key enabler. Just as an example, we have some very large pieces of equipment that, when we have a turnaround, we want to do inspections. Even if there's no issue, we want to use that downtime to confirm its operating at the right level, and there's no corrosion or other integrity concerns. And normally, we would have to go to great lengths to not only clean out the vessel, but then to set up proper entry procedures to make it safe for personnel, maybe lots of scaffolding inside of a large vessel. Well, now what we're doing is we're deploying drones to do those inspections for us. And we've been using drones for several years for external inspections. But now we're actually using drones for internal inspections. And I've seen the photos myself and it's just amazing, the clarity of visual that we can get with these drones. And what that allows us to do is just minimize all the costs to prepare for the inspection. Conducting the inspection itself is low cost and we can do it much quicker. And so, all those things add a lot of value. So that's just one example. The team has also been doing a lot of work with some of our business partners around procurement, material costs things like that. And certainly, that is having a beneficial effect as well. We've been able to conduct the turnaround with -- and some of these comments apply also to the downstream with our refineries there. But we're able to do the work with, if you will, less overtime costs. So the overall cost of labor is coming way down. So, those are few examples for you.

Asit Sen

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open.

Thanks, Brad.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from Mike Dunn with Stifel. Your line is open.

Mike Dunn

Analyst · Stifel. Your line is open.

Thanks. Good morning, everyone. My question was just asked. My second one though, could you guys just remind with the cogen at Strathcona. How we should be thinking about, I guess margin improvements today or once that starts up, obviously, we probably have an escalating benefit overtime, if clean fuel standards get implemented, etcetera? But what should we be baking into our models for that? Thanks.

Brad Corson

Management

Yes. Thanks for that question, Mike. The Strathcona cogen project is a really important project for us, both in terms of the efficiency gains for power and energy consumption, but also for emissions improvements. I actually don't have at my fingertips what the actual cost savings of that will be, but certainly we can follow up with you offline. But, a very beneficial project for us.

Mike Dunn

Analyst · Stifel. Your line is open.

Thanks Brad.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And I'm not showing any further questions at this time. And then, I'd like to turn the call back to your speakers for any further remarks.

Dave Hughes

Management

Okay. Well, thank you, everybody. Thanks for joining us this morning. I just like to remind you, as always, if you have any further questions, please don't hesitate to reach out to the IR team. We're happy to help. And just like to wish everybody all the best. So thank you very much.

Brad Corson

Management

Thanks, folks.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect. Everyone have a good day.