Bob Swan
Analyst · Credit Suisse.
Yes. And I would -- I'd put maybe, John, just I think history here as a reasonably good indicator of the commentary that George provided for 2021. And if you go back a year, we said gross margins would be 59% for 2020 and we ended up at 57.5%. So, down 1.5 points. And if you look at the fundamental drivers of that 1.5 points versus what we thought at the beginning of the year,first, we generated $4 billion more revenue than we thought. So, volume was much higher. And then when you look at the makeup of that volume, it was -- in my mind, it was all good things that foreshadow important things for 2021 and beyond. First, the demand for our 10-nanometer products was much -- was higher -- greater than we expected and that was very positive in terms of income, but slight degradation in gross margin. Second, the PC demand that we experienced during the course of the year which relative to where we were at the beginning of the year was off the charts, including what we believe were share gains in the fourth quarter came predominantly with consumer entry and education. So, those two segments tend to be lower margin, but real strong demand and that was the gap that we didn't fill when we were capacity constrained last year. So, I think in terms of the mix of more 10-nanometer, much more PC demand at the lower ends, those were things that drove down less margin percent, but a lot more income than we expected a year ago. And those things as George mentioned going into 2021 are going to be -- you're going to have a much better mix because of the exit of modem and NAND, number one. Number two, 10-nanometer product cost, as George mentioned, is going to get much better during the course of the year. Number three, 14-nanometer is going to be more fully depreciated equipment. Those three things are very positive as we go into the year. At the same time, George flagged two issues, one of those mix dynamics of PC TAM we think is going to be relatively strong, but we do believe it's going to be at the lower-end. Education will be a big part of that demand that has lower margin and we renewed our commitment to 7-nanometer process technology and that, in fact, will have a degradation. So, in so many ways, we generated a lot more income and revenue in 2020 as the adoption of our better -- of our 10-nanometer products and lower end in consumer were very positive impacts for earnings and those trends you'll see as we go in the first quarter and throughout 2021.