Brad Smith
Analyst · Bank of America
Yes, Jaimin. It's a little bit early for us to give a long-term forecast. I can put a little bit of context around our fiscal year '14 guidance. And as you know, there's 4 primary drivers in tax, you just alluded to them. One is, how many returns will actually get processed with the IRS. Typically, that forecast is about 0% to 1%. This year, we saw a little bit of a step backwards. So we're being a little conservative in fiscal year '14. We think that it's going to be somewhere -- instead, it's usually 1% to 2%. We think it's going to be in the 0% to 1% range. So call that maybe 1 point of growth for TurboTax because 1 point of returns, and we hold share, it gets us about 1 point of growth. The second is the tax category, the digital tax category. How fast is it growing? And we expect the software category will grow somewhere in that 4% to 5% range, which means it should take about another 1 point of share away from the assisted methods. And ultimately, every 1 point that the tax category gains is about 3 points of growth to TurboTax. So you throw that on top of the earlier math I mentioned and you're in that 4% range now, 3% from that, 1% from the IRS. The third is share, can we actually take share in the market in the software category? And right now, we're saying that we want to continue to grow share. Obviously, last year, we held share. So if you put the range of 0% to 1%, then you basically translate into TurboTax growth, and that's about 1 point to 1.5 points of growth. And then the fourth lever is revenue per return, and we usually get a couple of points of upside there in terms of people shifting from free to paid. Last year, we only got 1 point because we had to grow over the decision we made to outsource our refund bonus card. Next year, we're hoping to get about 1 point of upside as well. So if you put the 4 together, that's how we got to our 4% to 5% guidance because basically we think the IRS is going to grow between 0% and 1%. We think that the software category will maybe pick up another 1 point of share, if it grows 4% to 5% a year. We're going to try to gain 1 point of share ourselves. And ultimately, we're planning to get a little revenue per return upside, maybe 1% or so.