Earnings Labs

IonQ, Inc. (IONQ)

Q4 2021 Earnings Call· Mon, Mar 28, 2022

$41.21

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Greetings. Welcome to the IonQ Fourth Quarter 2021 Earnings Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. [Operator Instructions] Please note, this conference is being recorded. I would now to turn the conference over to your host Jordan Shapiro, VP of Financial Planning & Analysis and Head of Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin ahead.

Jordan Shapiro

Analyst

Good afternoon everyone and welcome to IonQ’s fourth quarter and full year 2021 earnings call. My name is Jordan Shapiro and I am the Vice President of Financial Planning & Analysis and Head of Investor Relations here at IonQ. I am pleased to be joined on today's call by Peter Chapman IonQ’s President and Chief Executive Officer and Thomas Kramer, our Chief Financial Officer. By now, everyone should have access to the company's fourth quarter and full year 2021 earnings press release issued this afternoon, which is available on the Investor Relation's section of our website at investorsionq.com. Please note that on today's call, management will refer to adjusted EBITDA, which is a non-GAAP financial measure. While the company believes this non-GAAP financial measure provides useful information for investors, the presentation of this information is not intended to be considered in isolation, or as a substitute for the financial information presented in accordance with GAAP. You are directed to our press release for reconciliation of such measures to GAAP. Now, before we began, please not that some of our remarks on this call will be forward-looking. Therefore, please refer to the cautionary statement in today's press release for additional details about these remarks. Please note that these forward-looking statements made during this conference call speak only as of today. Now, I will turn it over to Peter Chapman, President and CEO of IonQ. Peter?

Peter Chapman

Analyst · WestPark Capital. Please proceed with your question

Thanks Jordan and thank you all for joining us today. I first want to acknowledge the deeply troubling crisis still unfolding in Ukraine. It's a time of great concern for all of us and it is simply devastating to see the impact it's having on the lives of so many people, including some of our IonQ staff members who have family in harm's way. Before I get started, I thought I would share a little history of IonQ. When I joined IonQ three years ago, the Board told me to ignore sales, ignore the competition, and ignore the press, just focus on building the world's best quantum computer and bring it to market as quickly as you can. In some sense, a Field of Dreams approach. If you build it, they will come. And that's just what we believe we have done. We believe we have built the world's best quantum computer, as shown in our latest generation IonQ ARIA machine. I tell you this story, because it's important to understand where IonQ is in its commercialization efforts and the upside become. At the beginning of 2021, we had no dedicated sales executives and we're selling two 11 qubit machines. Now, having finished 2021, I am happy to report that even after tripling our original 2021 contract bookings forecast in September, from $5 million to $15 million, we beat that number again to end up at $16.7 million for the full year. This resulted in recognize revenue of $2.1 million for the 2022 fiscal year, which was 31% above the $1.6 million we forecasted on the Q3 call. This year, we are starting to stand up our production engineering and manufacturing departments. This group will be responsible for building all commercial quantum computers going forward, including for the first time…

Thomas Kramer

Analyst · WestPark Capital. Please proceed with your question

Thank you, Peter. Good afternoon everyone and thank you for joining us. I would like to start off by going over our results for the quarter. As Peter mentioned, we outperformed our outlook this quarter, with $1.6 million in revenue and $1.5 million in contract bookings for the quarter. We ended the full year with $2.1 million in a revenue, which is $500,000 or 31% higher than what we estimated on the third quarter call. Our TCV contract bookings ended up at $16.7 million for the year, which exceeded our most recent midpoint estimate of $15.8 million given on the Q3 call, which was already up 3x from our beginning of the year forecast. Given that we are still at the beginning of our commercialization phase and that in addition to transactional-based cloud revenue, we sell large contracts our customers pay for reserved compute access. We should expect bookings to continue to be lumpy for quite some time. We have been approached by several entities about potential system sales outright, which would further add to this trend if and when the sales should have. Moving down the income statement, our total operating costs and expenses for the fourth quarter were $12.5 million, up 153% from the $4.9 million in the comparable prior period. For the full year 2021, this totaled $40.8 million, up 159% from $15.7 million in 2020. To break this down further, our research and development costs for the fourth quarter were $4.9 million, up 96% from $2.5 million in the year prior period. For the full year, R&D totaled $20.2 million, up 99% from the $10.2 million in 2020. We expect these costs to continue to increase sequentially as we invest in building our next generation of computers. Our sales and marketing costs in the fourth quarter…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. At this time, we will be conducting a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Ruben Roy with WestPark Capital. Please proceed with your question.

Ruben Roy

Analyst · WestPark Capital. Please proceed with your question

Thank you. Thanks very much for the questions. Hi, Peter. Congrats on the continued progress and a great finish to fiscal 2021. I guess the first question I had is just around -- the commentary around system sales and being approached by entities around system sales. I think in the past, when we've spoken about revenue rec over the next several years, system sales was a little bit further down the list in terms of how you're looking at your overall hardware, you have hardware in the cloud, you've got engineering services, et cetera, has anything changed with your view on how hardware system sales will progress? Are they potentially going to progress more quickly, because of the barium qubits that you guys are working on or anything changed in the way you're thinking about rev rec over the next three to five years? Thank you.

Peter Chapman

Analyst · WestPark Capital. Please proceed with your question

Well, there's a couple of pieces. One is we do recognize to get to scale that you have to be able to manufacture multiple quantum computers. And in addition that you want those quantum computers to be standardized, and easily manufacturable, which means you need to be able to support them and all the rest. So, what I would say is we're ahead of schedule in terms of the technology plan and so we're starting now to work on that particular problem. So, you'll start to see -- we've already said to the market that we are going to work on photonic interconnect to start to connect these things together. And that's a way to get to much larger quantum computers. What is new is that we have seen a great deal of interest from several customers where they have expressed interest in, in getting a full system. And so that is new from what we had said before.

Ruben Roy

Analyst · WestPark Capital. Please proceed with your question

Great. Congrats on that--

Peter Chapman

Analyst · WestPark Capital. Please proceed with your question

And the other--

Ruben Roy

Analyst · WestPark Capital. Please proceed with your question

I'm sorry, go ahead.

Peter Chapman

Analyst · WestPark Capital. Please proceed with your question

And I'll just add a little bit, just given the impact potentially on these, it obviously, would drive kind of maybe a single sale would make a quarter be pretty lumpy and should expect a certain amount of lumpiness going forward as we see these.

Ruben Roy

Analyst · WestPark Capital. Please proceed with your question

Sure. Sure. As a quick follow-up, then, my question for Thomas just around the improvement in bookings. Is that fairly broad based on this? Is it -- or is it more concentrated either by -- from government or some commercial partners that are coming forth? Any additional detail around the bookings progress would be helpful? Thanks.

Thomas Kramer

Analyst · WestPark Capital. Please proceed with your question

Absolutely. And you're right to ask about the rev rec, it's obviously different for system sales versus more System-as-a-Service sale. However, we thought it would be prudent for us to just raise that -- it's not a flag, it's more of -- like, it's a good thing that we want to raise it before it happens so that we're not all surprised. When we look at the lift in our bookings, we are seeing a continued interest from both corporate, academic, and government institutions. At current, we won't be breaking out individual sales, but we are very encouraged to see both how very the interest is in quantum as well as how many jobs that are submitted every day from people, we don't even know who are because they're coming in through AWS and Asher and Google apps.

Ruben Roy

Analyst · WestPark Capital. Please proceed with your question

Okay, thank you very much, guys. Congrats again.

Peter Chapman

Analyst · WestPark Capital. Please proceed with your question

Thank you, Ruben.

Thomas Kramer

Analyst · WestPark Capital. Please proceed with your question

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Scott Fessler with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question.

Scott Fessler

Analyst · Scott Fessler with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question

Hi, guys, congratulations on the great quarter. Following up on the system sales question, what impact should we expect that has on the operating model, particularly around margins?

Peter Chapman

Analyst · Scott Fessler with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question

We are not forcing any immediate change to the operating model. But what you will see is that once we implement the system sale, you would see a bump both in bookings revenue and margins, because you're able to take down all of the benefit of the revenue to the current whereas we will not stretch out all the expenses. So, it will be a bump to the margin, but it wouldn't be an immediate -- like it wouldn't be outside of the model, because we still would recognize all the same cost, which just happened in one period instead of several.

Scott Fessler

Analyst · Scott Fessler with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question

Got it. Got it. And then if I could get a follow-up in as well, could you just share some early customer feedback you had from the Aria launch?

Peter Chapman

Analyst · Scott Fessler with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question

Generally, the customer feedback is really very, very positive. People are impressed with what this new hardware can do and are excited to see kind of, being able to take their applications to the next level. So far, the customer feedback has been tremendous.

Scott Fessler

Analyst · Scott Fessler with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question

Excellent. Thanks guys.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of David Williams with Benchmark Company. Please proceed with your question.

David Williams

Analyst · David Williams with Benchmark Company. Please proceed with your question

Hey, good afternoon. Thanks for letting me ask the question. Clearly, making some very nice headway here, some good progress. But I wanted to ask , as you kind of think about the landscape and understanding of the technology and applications, how do you envision the competitive dynamics developing over time? It seems the size of the opportunity would provide room for multiple technologies to coexist without restrictions to growth? And just kind of curious how you think about the competitive landscape and maybe your business just kind of given the strength of your systems?

Peter Chapman

Analyst · David Williams with Benchmark Company. Please proceed with your question

You might hear from some competitors, where they think that there'll be kind of certain niches that they'll be able to kind of be the leader in. It's interesting in -- depending on the qubit technology, when you have to design the chip at before manufacture time, that's where you sit down and make a business decision because of this early stage of their processors that may be a particular chip might be designed in a way that might help a particular application. And obviously, one manufacturer can't go and do all chips for all applications that leads to that segmentation. Interesting enough at IonQ, we do the design of the chip, if you will, at runtime. And so, we can do at runtime, any -- we can basically design, if you will, the chip -- the perfect chip for your application. So, we kind of see our devices unique in that sense, and that it can be morphed on-the-fly for any application, which makes it more -- a better machine than, say, some of the some of the competitors. At some point, we'll have so many qubits that you can throw away qubits and do a least common denominator approach to quantum, but that's not in the in the near-term. But IonQ basically doesn't have to make that decision because we basically wire up the chip at runtime. And so it can basically be anyone else's chip and all of them combined at the same time.

David Williams

Analyst · David Williams with Benchmark Company. Please proceed with your question

Thanks so much for the color. And I guess one of the other areas, I know that investors and even -- I think about your customers, difficulty understanding maybe some of the benchmarking and how you stack up with other ones. And I know that the algorithm qubit is an important metric there, could you kind of walk us through the value there and why the algorithmic qubit is more important to think about versus standard qubit and how you stack up in some of the others?

Peter Chapman

Analyst · David Williams with Benchmark Company. Please proceed with your question

Yes. So, first thing is the benchmarks themselves, these were selected by the QEDC, which is industry consortium made up of all the quantum company. So, first thing to know is it wasn't, if you will, an IonQ choice of algorithms, although, we obviously had an input to the selection with many other companies. We think it's important because these benchmarks represent the same kinds of programs that we think customers are going to want to run. And so, in that sense, their -- the benchmark is closer to being representative to what a customer will run. Other things are much more esoteric and there might be looking at kind of one particular component and not all of them combined into one thing. So, this is very similar, if you will, to the classical world. There's a number of classical benchmarks, which everyone uses in HPC or even laptops, which are all application-oriented benchmarks. So -- and we think -- it's important that an independent organization, like to QEDC or maybe IEEE should be the one who's deciding what the benchmarks are and an improvement from what's happening today would be to have independent third-party to actually run them and so instead of the individual companies running. We'd be in favor of all of that, because we think we would easily -- will easily continue to lead.

David Williams

Analyst · David Williams with Benchmark Company. Please proceed with your question

Very helpful. Thanks so much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Richard Shannon with Craig-Hallum. Please proceed with your question.

Richard Shannon

Analyst · Richard Shannon with Craig-Hallum. Please proceed with your question

Well, hi, guys, thanks for taking my questions. Maybe one for Thomas, more of a tactical question on your guidance here both on revenues and bookings. I guess, probably more so pointed to revenues, but maybe you want to comment on the bookings part as well. The ranges here you have for this year are fairly tight, which would imply a sense of precision here. And so wanted to get your sense of why so precise, is this -- you have a lot of visibility into these numbers. And how would you characterize the upside potential as we go through the year?

Thomas Kramer

Analyst · Richard Shannon with Craig-Hallum. Please proceed with your question

Excellent question and thank you for raising it. Obviously, it is hard to make predictions, particularly about the future. When it comes to revenue, it is actually not that hard, because the way bookings tend to turn into recognized revenue is a straight line on the types of contracts we had sold up until now. And there is an implementation lag between when we sell it and when they start producing revenue of roughly three months. So, you can do that also knowing that most sales in a quarter unfortunately, tend to happen at the end of the quarter and so you can build your rev rec schedule that way. When it comes to bookings, we have taken the approach that we know what's in our funnel, we know how we score that funnel. Should we outperformed? Yes. However, I would we -- obviously every company can also underperform, we think it will be hard to see us come in at less than 20. So, we're looking at this as a minimum 20 bet. And what we could have bluebirds, which is why we brought it up. However, we don't think that they would happen as quickly, but they could. And that's why we're actually raising that so that we will not be surprised. We would all like to have that surprise when it happens.

Richard Shannon

Analyst · Richard Shannon with Craig-Hallum. Please proceed with your question

Okay, that's very helpful. Thomas, thanks for that. Maybe a multiparty here on kind of the sales opportunity here and structure and workforce you're supporting. I think you talked about doubling the salesforce this year. I guess the first question to that is, how similar is this to kind of the assumptions built into your models in the spec process is as above or below that in terms of pace? And then I think you said specifically that salesforce would be built in part to kind of ramp out Europe. Maybe if you want to characterize the opportunity you see, outside of the U.S., Europe versus Asian others, just to give us a sense of where you're focusing and why.

Peter Chapman

Analyst · Richard Shannon with Craig-Hallum. Please proceed with your question

Just in terms of headcount, it's about what we said in the original pipe model in -- or we thought. And the point, though, to be honest, is that last year we started with almost zero in terms of sales team. So, in the -- on the sales side, we're really just getting going. And that's really the point. Then -- and we're making good progress on that, in terms of the number of people this year. The -- in terms of locations, we see customers overseas, which would be in Europe, and the -- and Asia, which would be Japan and South Korea, and Australia, there seems to be a great deal of interest there as well.

Richard Shannon

Analyst · Richard Shannon with Craig-Hallum. Please proceed with your question

Okay, great for that. And one last question for me, I'll jump out of line. Peter wanted to get your sense of the overall environment here, you've seen the first one come into the public market, seen a couple of spin outs, a couple of companies, one, not quite in one all the way through the spec process here. So, a lot more interest in activity and funding in this space. You've got a fairly substantial cash position here that you seem to be able to fund all of your operations organically here, how do you see the market and the need for M&A either in terms of technical teams, or even kind of, organizations, either hardware or software that might be of interest in kind of a plug into what IonQ has already done today?

Peter Chapman

Analyst · Richard Shannon with Craig-Hallum. Please proceed with your question

Certainly, we are keeping an eye out and for those particular opportunities going forward, that's an active task at the at the current time. I do think just in general that, while on one hand, there's more money going into many quantum companies. At the same time, I expect a great deal of consolidation to happen over the next several years. I think you'll see some players who will decide that their technical approach to their hardware is too far behind and we'll throw in the towel. And I expect too that we'll see new players who have interest in quantum that haven't expressed it today because I think a lot of tech companies are just starting to realize that they need to be a player in quantum. So, there's a number of notable players yet that we -- no one knows what their quantum strategy is and so there's new opportunities for partnership and in the such going forward. So, that's kind of -- it's certainly an interesting time in quantum.

Richard Shannon

Analyst · Richard Shannon with Craig-Hallum. Please proceed with your question

No doubt about that, Peter. Thanks. I think that's all the questions for me and I appreciate it, guys. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from the line of Quinn Bolton with Needham. Please proceed with your question.

Quinn Bolton

Analyst · Quinn Bolton with Needham. Please proceed with your question

Good afternoon. Thanks for letting me ask a question. Wanted to start just on the outright sale of the quantum computers. Maybe if you could, could you sort of talk to us about sort of your thought process, how do you go about pricing these systems is it based on gate fidelity's as a base done number of algorithmic qubits. And a follow-up question is, what's your manufacturing capacity of number of systems per year? To the extent you, you know, you, you start to get these orders for full blown quantum systems?

Peter Chapman

Analyst · Quinn Bolton with Needham. Please proceed with your question

It's a -- it's certainly a great question. So, maybe just points out the first thing, which is obvious that you can't use the same sort of model for classical as you can for quantum in terms of price performance because the -- as you saw, just here, these new machines are thousand times more powerful than last year's model. So, they can't be thousand times more expensive. And in the future, it's just going to get worse and worse, or you'll get to an you know, sometime in the future where the next model will be hundred thousand times more powerful than the previous model. So, you clearly need a more aggressive price performance, mix up than what you get today. Today, we expect in the classical world, kind of, every year, 18 months, using Moore's law, to double the performance, and be able to buy the same laptop, if you will, for the same price in that same period or another ways, it's half the cost. So, -- and that leads to an observation, which is, price per qubit, needs to be going down in every generation. And so as much as we're focused on the technology to improve the quantum computers themselves, are also likewise focused on the manufacturing cost going forward in shrinking the costs in every generation, which generally means probably for everyone, but us included -- including us, which is they have to get smaller, because every time -- if every generation gets smaller, generally the things get cheaper. So, we're just standing up a manufacturing group this year, whose sole purpose it is to work on that particular problem set. We will not deliver, I don't believe first computers off that line until early 2023.

Quinn Bolton

Analyst · Quinn Bolton with Needham. Please proceed with your question

Got it. Understood. Yes, thank you. Thank you, Peter. A second question I just had -- you went through a number of the benefits of the barium-based ion trap technology, wondering if there's anything that you think still on the critical path that that you haven't been able to overcome on those systems? Or do you think at this point, you've sort of overcome all of the challenges, and it's really just sort of blocking and tackling to get the barium-based systems into production?

Peter Chapman

Analyst · Quinn Bolton with Needham. Please proceed with your question

As we've kind of said, all along, everything that we're doing, we have shown working in a lab once before. So, we do not need a breakthrough in manufacturing, material science, physics, no breakthroughs required. We're largely an engineering organization, where we're taking what the two Co-Founders have done at the university or laboratories and productizing it. So, the short answer is I don't think there's anything -- there's no things that’s standing in our way. There's no magic that we have to figure out going forward to -- getting to a much larger quantum computer.

Quinn Bolton

Analyst · Quinn Bolton with Needham. Please proceed with your question

Thank you. And then just quickly for Thomas, you've given EBITDA forecast of $55 million loss in 2022, can you give us any sense on what the CapEx may be? Or what a good estimate for cash burn over the year would be?

Thomas Kramer

Analyst · Quinn Bolton with Needham. Please proceed with your question

Yes, just one second while we pull that up. So obviously, what since we are manufacturing hardware, there is CapEx involved, that will sometimes outpace our office. However, we do think that that's going to level out at -- I'd say four years from now. I would expect that our CapEx this year should be around $23 million, more or less.

Quinn Bolton

Analyst · Quinn Bolton with Needham. Please proceed with your question

Okay. Perfect. Thank you very much.

Peter Chapman

Analyst · Quinn Bolton with Needham. Please proceed with your question

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, we have reached the end of the question-and-answer session. I will now turn the call over to management for closing remarks.

Peter Chapman

Analyst · WestPark Capital. Please proceed with your question

Well, thanks, everyone for joining today. I'll just actually make a comment to that I'd like to thank all the staff members for -- at IonQ who've worked long hours to make these results possible, so thank you so much. And we are extremely excited by the results from last year and the continued growth we expect this year. So, we expect -- last year was an exciting year and we expect this year to continue that pace. So, thanks again for joining.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today's conference and you may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation and have a wonderful day.