Andrew K. Silvernail
Analyst
Yes. Look, I think -- Philip, I think you narrowed in really well, right, which is if you look at that $3.8 billion second half run rate that we're talking about, and that's -- we needed to be in that range, right? That's where we really needed to be. We're on there. And where that moves within the range so far has really principally been driven by what's happened in the marketplace in terms of just overall market volume. If you take market volumes, which year-to-date are down, they're down, what, 2 in the second quarter -- in first quarter, what was it? -- trying to remember off the top of my head. Yes. So it's pretty -- market was also -- so if you look at that, that versus a plus 1, right? So we went into the year thinking that the year would be a plus 1. And so we're kind of 2 or 3 point market versus the expectation is somewhere 2 or 3 points worse. And so if you look at kind of that, that really explains kind of all -- everything we're talking about here. Now the mill operations, that could have been upside for us, right? So that's not really a major downside, but it could have been upside that we didn't get -- and so those 2 things, as I put them together, that's really the biggest stuff. And so as I look at going forward, do I believe that the marketplace has been constrained by what's going on in the macro environment? I really do. And do I think we can capture that upside over time? I think so. So we're well within the range that we outlined in March. Really, it's that top line and then obviously, the mill performance in North America that we talked about. Europe is on the lower end of our expectations right now because, again, of the market softness. So I combine -- if I step back and I think we're here this time next year. What do I hope to be meaningfully different? Some things I can't control, some things I can't. Number one, again, we are winning market share in North America, right? That will be important. Two, we improve, we make real traction on this mill reliability over the next year. And three, we get after the complexity reduction in Europe, right? Those are all things that we can control. And so if I look at it, if you take the market and set the market aside, we're here a year from now and you guys are grading our progress, I think that's what you're going to be grading us on.