Earnings Labs

Ingersoll Rand Inc. (IR)

Q4 2011 Earnings Call· Wed, Feb 8, 2012

$78.72

-3.19%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.
Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Ingersoll-Rand Fourth Quarter 2011 Earnings Conference Call. At this time all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions will be given at that time. (Operator Instructions) As a remainder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to introduce our host for today Ms. Janet Pfeffer, Vice President of Business Development and Investor Relations. Ma'am, please go ahead. Janet Pfeffer – Vice President, Business Development and Investor Relations: Thank you, Karen good morning everyone, welcome to Ingersoll-Rand's fourth quarter 2011 conference call. We released earnings at 7:00 a.m. this morning and the release is posted on our website. We'll be broadcasting in addition to this phone call through our website at ingersollrand.com where you will find a slide presentation that we will be using this morning. This call will be recorded and archived on our website and will be available tomorrow morning. If you would, please go to slide 2. Statements made in today's call that are not historical facts are considered forward-looking and are made pursuant to the Safe Harbor Provisions of Federal Securities law. Please see our SEC filings for a description of some of the factors that may cause results to vary materially from anticipated. Now, I'd like to introduce the participants on this morning's call. We have Mike Lamach, Chairman, President and CEO; Steve Shawley, Senior Vice President and CFO; and Joe Fimbianti, Director of Investor Relations. With that, please go to Slide 3 and I'll turn it over to Mike. Mike Lamach – Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer: Thanks, Janet. Good morning and thank you for joining us on today's call. Before we dive in on the fourth quarter results, I'd like to take a couple…

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Steve Tusa of JPMorgan Steve Tusa – JPMorgan: Hey good morning.

Mike Lamach

Analyst · Nigel Coe of Morgan Stanley

Hi Steve. Steve Tusa – JPMorgan: The question on the resi business, so you talked about I guess flat, similar product mix, but I guess you are ramping up R22 product and then I guess what does that mean for margins? How do we think about resi margins given that you had, I guess you called it, $50 million bucks plus of kind of unusual headwind this year? So how do we think about the margin in resi?

Mike Lamach

Analyst · Nigel Coe of Morgan Stanley

First of all just given the market, we think that the market will be relatively flat in terms of total motor bearing units. We think that we'll actually see probably a 4% increase which is a fairly modest share gain there and totals about 50 basis points, really just by being in the market for the full year. So, it would equate to something like 40,000 to 50,000 units that weren't in the market last year, it will be in the market this year, and obviously that put some pressure on margins there because that growth will come at a lower incremental margin. So, we look at that business overall is growing in the year flat to 2% and margins there probably grown about 200 basis points. So, getting back on the miscues in 2011, certainly picking up the volume in the R22 business but at a lower incremental. Steve Tusa – JPMorgan: What was the 4% number you just mentioned so if the market is flat and you’re gaining share, are you – does that mean the Security business is down that offsets that?

Mike Lamach

Analyst · Nigel Coe of Morgan Stanley

No, it’s only HVAC. So, some of the market for motor bearing units would be flat. We think that we’ll actually be up about 4% driven by the unitary business. Steve Tusa – JPMorgan: Right.

Mike Lamach

Analyst · Nigel Coe of Morgan Stanley

Which is about a 50% market share gain for us, it’s solely though as a result of actually being in the market with the product for a full year. Steve Tusa – JPMorgan: So, then why are resi revenues flat to up 2%, if you’re growing resi HVAC 4%, does that mean the resi Security business is flat or down?

Mike Lamach

Analyst · Nigel Coe of Morgan Stanley

No, we look at furnace, we look at air-handler, and we look at… Steve Tusa – JPMorgan: Okay. Got you.

Mike Lamach

Analyst · Nigel Coe of Morgan Stanley

Yeah sure. Steve Tusa – JPMorgan: Okay. And just as a follow-up. If that business is up 200 basis points, what’s the total company kind of margin improvement target you’re looking for in 2012 and then I guess that I would assume that it’s not 200 basis points in some of the other businesses or kind of more moderate margin increases?

Mike Lamach

Analyst · Nigel Coe of Morgan Stanley

Yeah, Steve at the midpoint of the range ex-Hussmann it’s about 50 basis points. Steve Tusa – JPMorgan: So then the rest of the businesses are really showing kind of like in line with that to little bit late of the 50 basis points?

Mike Lamach

Analyst · Nigel Coe of Morgan Stanley

Yeah Climate, you might be looking at 30 to 50 basis points, Industrial probably still little bit stronger there, 110 and 130 basis points. res, we talked about and Security you could think about being fairly flat. Steve Tusa – JPMorgan: Great. Thanks for the detail. I appreciate it.

Operator

Operator

Thank you and our next question comes from the line of Nigel Coe of Morgan Stanley. Nigel Coe – Morgan Stanley: Yeah, thanks. Steve, took all my questions there. Could you maybe talk about where you see the major upside and downside risks in your forecasts, and it looks like your resi forecast a pretty conservative, mostly your comps are forecasting low-to-mid single digit growth, and maybe compare and contract reality of the market versus your competitors?

Mike Lamach

Analyst · Nigel Coe of Morgan Stanley

Well. I mean, one thing Nigel, I think in particular as well looking at the same data, we interpreted probably less optimistically in Europe, particularly in our industrial businesses, we think which would be probably first to see that and we’re seeing some softening there. So we’ve got a view in Europe across the whole company as reported, which we include currency of course to be, say down 10% to 12% with currency. That’s a bit more negative or less positive than I think you’re hearing some other companies that at this point of time. The other place where it’s a bit of wildcard, but you look at North American in HVAC equipment, and we look at our number of data points here, but one that’s fairly reliable for us is the dodge put in place number. And then, figuring from that the usage factors that we get from security product and HVAC product as it applies to the specific markets that are being built. So it breaks it down by particular verticals in those businesses. And that could imply a kind of a negative five, negative seven type equipment environment for next year, which again is a little bit more pessimistic than what we’re seeing. But again this has been a fairly accurate indicator for us in the past. So to the extent that those don’t materialize, that there is more put in place quicker that we’ll earn sites faster, it could have an impact the other way for us as well. Nigel Coe – Morgan Stanley: Sorry. The downside seven, would that be for the Security business or the commercial HVAC equipment?

Mike Lamach

Analyst · Nigel Coe of Morgan Stanley

Both about the same, as they can’t follow same markets with HVAC typically leading security. But it’ll be the same outlook for both, of course, different usage factors and a different market mix based on what new construction is being built. So the institutional markets would hurt the security business more than it would hurt the HVAC business. Nigel Coe – Morgan Stanley: So we’re swinging from a high single-digit growth in equivalent to potentially down 5 in the U.S., what’s changing from year-to-year?

Mike Lamach

Analyst · Nigel Coe of Morgan Stanley

Well, I mean, one thing if you look at fourth quarter last year and the first quarter of this year, I mean if you go back to the fourth quarter of last year as an example, we saw unitary bookings from fourth quarter up almost 40% and we saw applied bookings in the quarter up something like 28%. The unitary not all that shipped in the quarter, but obviously some of it did, but the applied all shipped in the first quarter of last year. So you see a weaker first quarter against really tough comps. So, we were way above sort of the market in the first quarter of last year for revenue, way above the market in 2010 fourth quarter for bookings. So we’re lapping some very difficult comps there. But if you look again at sort of the just the proposal pipeline, you look at the orders in hand and look at the McGraw-Hill put in place and how that would relate to book in turn in the year and we get to a slightly recovering market in the year, so that for the full year equipment globally would be fairly flat. We would see I think good growth again in contracting parts and service, probably up in the 8% range and that would give us for the Climate Solutions business something closer to the full year, one to four range that we are forecasting. Nigel Coe – Morgan Stanley: Okay, that's very helpful. And then you said down 10 throughout the Europe, I am assuming that's mid single ex-currency. What are you baking in for China and the emerging markets in 2012?

Mike Lamach

Analyst · Nigel Coe of Morgan Stanley

Good growth, Nigel, it might look slower, slower growth across the board. It will still be good growth for us. If you look at Asia for the Company, we are probably still seeing mid-teens for the year, I think a slower first quarter, but mid-teens for the year. Latin America still is exciting for us, again, slower start to the year, but a mid-teens rate in Latin America. Nigel Coe – Morgan Stanley: Thanks Mike.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Andrew Obin of Bank of America. Andrew Obin – Bank of America: Yes. Good morning, guys. Just a question on profitability drivers in Climate Solutions. We saw very nice pickup in profitability. I assume that a lot of it is Thermo King, which is pretty profitable, but could you just get us a sense of what is it Trane or cost savings versus Thermo King volumes, if you could give a sense for that?

Mike Lamach

Analyst · Andrew Obin of Bank of America

Well, volume overall in the quarter didn't have a huge impact for us in terms of the profitability there. So, we had lower inflation. We had very good productivity across the board there. We still invested in the business. We've got some new product launches that we are putting out in the quarter. So really it's leveraging against some of the work that's been done over the past year or two around the cost base, around the manufacturing footprint. I would also tell you that we are seeing a nice separation in the value streams that we have been working on from the lean portfolio. We are seeing the 2.5 points of margin differential versus the average across the Company in the quarter. So, just to give you a sense there, I think it's really gaining traction in our Climate businesses. Steven if you want to add anything your point.

Steve Shawley

Analyst · Andrew Obin of Bank of America

The other thing that happen I think in the quarter Andy was our Trane commercial services business leveraged a bit better and it was an area where we were investing a lot of money in last year. We intentionally invested new money in our Trane commercial contracting service and parts business. So, for most of the year it was actually flat and might be even partially negative leverage there and that improved in Q4 and quite frankly, we are looking forward to that piece of the business continuing to improve leverage going into 2012. Andrew Obin – Bank of America: Terrific and just a question on pricing, if you look at the progression of pricing throughout the year, we exited the year at a very nice run rate, but if I look at your guidance for 2012, we only have one percentage point of pricing and looking at the numbers it seems that at least for the first three quarters, the comp should be fairly easy. So, I'm just wondering what do we, how should I be thinking about pricing progression throughout 2012? Thank you.

Mike Lamach

Analyst · Andrew Obin of Bank of America

Yeah, so, Andrew for the first quarter, we think we'd have about 170 basis points of price. We think it will moderate through the year and we will probably end the year down a little over 1.1 as we said. We'll see lower inflation at this point lower inflation throughout the year as well. So, we'll maintain a positive spread in the first quarter versus material costs is probably about 90 basis points. And then over the course of the year it moderates the 70 or 80 basis points over the course of the year. Andrew Obin – Bank of America: Right, but how does it average out to 1% or is it – or is 1% just on approximation could be a little bit better than that?

Mike Lamach

Analyst · Andrew Obin of Bank of America

Well, it's you're lapping pretty aggressive price increases. So, it's getting tougher as you get towards back of the year. I mean the fourth quarter pricing was pretty strong. The fourth quarter pricing was a margin about 2.7 points of price to margin, so that was fairly strong for us. I think as we get into the back half of next year, it's going to be little bit tougher. Andrew Obin – Bank of America: Terrific, thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Terry Darling of Goldman Sachs. Terry Darling – Goldman Sachs: Actually Mike I'm wondering if you could expand a little bit on the view on Industrial segment margin expansion in 2012 110, 130 basis points on 2% to 4% organic, looks very strong there. One, have you talked about maybe the pieces there as well Club Car versus the other part, the compressor business?

Mike Lamach

Analyst · Terry Darling of Goldman Sachs

Yeah, I would say that for the most we're talking about those gains coming really in the Industrial businesses, Club Car will leverage the great growth of the Industrial businesses. And again it’s really going back over two or three year period where it’s been a constant drum beat around new product introduction and launching better product, better cost position, higher quality, less warranty, aggressive on the consolidation including the move in China. The early restructuring really paying off, so what you saw here is that the 2009, 2010 and 2011 restructuring done there leveraging against those volumes. So any volume that I think we get there is going to leverage at a fairly substantial rate. They’ve done a nice job around their footprint over those years. Terry Darling – Goldman Sachs: So this sounds like more company specific restructuring cost out…

Mike Lamach

Analyst · Terry Darling of Goldman Sachs

Yes. I mean, I don’t know if you were at the Mocksville facility, but that’s a great example for us. They’ve actually gained in that product line three points a share and this is the KGI reported numbers. So this isn’t our view, this is market view. Three points a share there and the first thing we saw was really good working capital management then we saw that was sustained, we saw margin improvement that’s been sustained. And it’s really turned down into much shorter cycle times and that’s all related to higher share there of three points. And so they’re doing a great job and I think it’ll continue through 2012. Terry Darling – Goldman Sachs: It’s great to see. And continued sluggish Gulf market, do we interpret that as kind of flattish?

Mike Lamach

Analyst · Terry Darling of Goldman Sachs

Yeah. Flat may be up slightly, up a couple of points. They’re working at their version of restructuring. They’ve been working through some warranty issues on some battery problems that we’ve had over the last couple of years with that business. I think that will get better. So we’ll see good leverage there as those warranty issues disappear and they continue – they are only an implementation down in Augusta. So that’s going well too. Terry Darling – Goldman Sachs: And then maybe a little more color, Mike on the pieces within Thermo King. I think I heard you indicate you’re expecting transport Europe down for the year, how much down and the how much up on the U.S. truck side, maybe would be helpful?

Mike Lamach

Analyst · Terry Darling of Goldman Sachs

I’ll speak that’s a little bit detail here but if you net it all out, it will be flat to up low single-digits for the year. So the increase in North America offset by almost an equivalent size business in Europe down at same level. So kind of a – sort of a higher single-digit North America, a lower negative single-digit in Europe, offsetting just about a flat to low single-digit market. Terry Darling – Goldman Sachs: And then just lastly, I wonder if you could just clarify on share count. I think $19 million buyback, off of the $312 million would get you to $293 million on the ordinary and then the differential between ordinary and diluted looks like $13 million, which would take you $306 million versus $315 million, what am I missing there other pieces?

Mike Lamach

Analyst · Terry Darling of Goldman Sachs

Yeah, we can’t be ordinary about $299 million Terry. So you add back the dilutions, so it's more like $312 million for the diluted count at this point. End of year diluted count. Terry Darling – Goldman Sachs: Okay and then some additional share issuance to get you to $315 million, is that the good assumption?

Steve Shawley

Analyst · Terry Darling of Goldman Sachs

Yeah, it will be..

Mike Lamach

Analyst · Terry Darling of Goldman Sachs

Like we’ll go on here as we’ll pick up a few shares because the share price is popped up a little bit, remember to converts, so we pick up a few shares there on the dilute count and also it seems like our share, our options kind of come above water, about mid 30s, $36 a share. It’s just kind of an average number back of my head, so we will pick up a few diluted shares because of our share price. Terry Darling – Goldman Sachs: And there is no incremental buyback assumed in the 350 in that, right?

Steve Shawley

Analyst · Terry Darling of Goldman Sachs

No. Terry Darling – Goldman Sachs: Okay. Thanks very much.

Steve Shawley

Analyst · Terry Darling of Goldman Sachs

I’ll take it back, we do have the possibility of buying back some shares in the second half to control that dilution, okay. So, what I’m expecting a big – a big number coming out of any share compensation programs this year will be mainly driven by options coming into the money and so in the second half we do – I won’t be surprise if we do spend some money buying back a few shares not a lot to control the dilution.

Mike Lamach

Analyst · Terry Darling of Goldman Sachs

Terry, we would earmark 300 million to 400 million for buyback in the back half of 2012, just due to seasonality of the business, but if you think about that as a September kind of midpoint, it’s got very little effect of the average share count for the year. Terry Darling – Goldman Sachs: So you do have 300 million or 400 million buyback in the 315 assumption.

Mike Lamach

Analyst · Terry Darling of Goldman Sachs

The comment we’re making is that we said relative to our capital allocation strategies that we’re committed to controlling that dilution and we will do what it takes to maintain the 315. Terry Darling – Goldman Sachs: Okay, thanks. I’ll pass it on.

Operator

Operator

Thank you and our next question comes from the line of Jeff Hammond of KeyBanc Capital Markets

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst · Jeff Hammond of KeyBanc Capital Markets

Good morning. This is (Brett Lindsey) stepping in for Jeff. A question, order rates don't suggest there is an acceleration in U.S. non-res, it feels like a lot of your peers are pointing to this as an area of optimism, any signs of improvement in terms of quoting, bidding activity to support a recovery here?

Mike Lamach

Analyst · Jeff Hammond of KeyBanc Capital Markets

I understand your question. We are not optimistic around the first quarter. It's a very tough comp for us anyway. If we were up 10% in the first quarter of last year and this year we see that obviously being impacted heavily in the first quarter. We could probably be down 6% to 9% in the first quarter in the res business. So, maybe take it from there as to your question.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst · Jeff Hammond of KeyBanc Capital Markets

Okay, great. And then just in terms of residential solutions, I know you guys had a significant inventory reduction in 4Q. I mean how would you characterize inventory levels at the company level now and then as you're looking and speak with distributors as we kind of start the year here?

Mike Lamach

Analyst · Jeff Hammond of KeyBanc Capital Markets

Well, let me first of all I'm going to tell you, to get $80 million of the loan product out of the channel and then exceeding that by $10 million to $90 million was a great achievement in res business. So, I think that in terms of indication of that team executing, first of all I'd tell you that's heck of an execution on the commercial team getting that out of the channel. So, then obviously I'd say in the earlier part of the call that they're right on track with the cost reductions and all the get well actions that were in a place. So, we were in a good starting positioning kind of coming into the year there. We look a lot less now at weeks of inventory, in fact our game and a game we want to play with our independent distribution is to be able to stock less and build to a shorter, shorter, shorter replenishment cycle, and so we're looking at what was a 20 to 30 day replenishment cycle from order to arrival at the distributor to be something in the 12 to 20 day range this year. So, we're taking it down by design across the channel and taking our cycle times down. So, I look at it really as just sort of sentiment coming from the channel. I look at it from – so the order rates coming in but not at the inventory – so weeks of inventory are less meaningful to us going forward.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst · Jeff Hammond of KeyBanc Capital Markets

Okay, great. Thanks guys.

Mike Lamach

Analyst · Jeff Hammond of KeyBanc Capital Markets

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from line of Shannon O'Callaghan of Nomura. Shannon O'Callaghan – Nomura: Good morning guys.

Mike Lamach

Analyst · Shannon O'Callaghan of Nomura

Hi, Shannon. Shannon O'Callaghan – Nomura: Hey, so on the commercial equipment business, I mean were there any price increases there in this fourth quarter or first quarter? And when do they get implemented?

Mike Lamach

Analyst · Shannon O'Callaghan of Nomura

Well, if you go back to when they were put in place last year, it was a combination. You had price increases in some of the more cataloged equipment, but you didn't see that this year going in, but what you do see is a lot more systems and tools and sophistication being put into the policies, the implementation of the pricing policies across the various channels and the various segments. So it's not sort of one-time sort of across the board price increase that would've seen in 2011. Much more targeted, systematic approach and that's the capability that we have been building over the last 18 months. Shannon O'Callaghan – Nomura: Okay. So, the catalog dynamic that would drive more of the pull forward where as the stuff you're doing now doesn't really create that dynamic, right?

Mike Lamach

Analyst · Shannon O'Callaghan of Nomura

Yeah. I mean if you recall last year, we've seen here actually fourth quarter 2010 we were surprised, we had a 40% increase in our unitary order rate and we were thinking 20%, 25% of the pull forward. So lot of pull forwards came to that price increase last year over a year ago. Shannon O'Callaghan – Nomura: Okay. And then just maybe on the $50 million of restructuring and cost reductions, can you give us a little more feel in terms of within the segments or geographies how that breaks out and what you are targeting?

Mike Lamach

Analyst · Shannon O'Callaghan of Nomura

Yeah, I mean first of all, you'd expect a lot of that to be in the Climate business, the largest business and so a lot of the 50 plus it's roughly $30 million and here you've got the consolidation of two plants. So there will be two fewer plants at the end of the first quarter than they were starting. So that's one piece of it, but they also gone and really began to attack the front end of the business. And to get, I would say, more synergy in the whole product management – program management areas of the company. So that's a significant piece for them. The other factors are doing a lot, you'll see industrial will finish the consolidation in China. They've also taken some action on the frontend of their business as well as security taking a smaller action on the frontend of their business as well just sort of rightsizing it and even changing some of the go-to-market dynamics about how we're looking to go-to-market in those businesses. Then, finally, what we're seeing is an investment into the information technology systems and so one of the largest single investments here is in the ERP conversion. We got 122 fulltime people dedicated today in this transition as compared to last year at this time. By the end of the year, we'll be close to 240 and that will continue to 2015 as we deploy common ERP systems across the company. We've also continued to invest essentially in supply chain and in OpEX and so bringing in a lot of lean expertise and really a lot of talent into the sourcing organization to get to a next level there in terms of capability. So that's the other investments we're making. The investments we're making in terms of restructuring and the cost reduction investments are actually slightly accretive for the year. So, we'll put $0.16, $0.17 into it in the first quarter and we'll get say $0.20 out of it by the end of the year. And that – that answer is a little bit of hockey stick question about how do you get from first quarter here of about 8% of your full earnings to $3. You pull out restructuring of about 12% and that's exactly what we did in 2011, but if you compare it to 2010, we were about 3%. In that year, we were much more aggressive around restructuring and I would equate our approach to 2012 to much more kind of 2010 and taking aggressive actions in the front of the year to kind of counter balance in flattish markets. Shannon O'Callaghan – Nomura: Okay. Got it. That helps. Thanks.

Mike Lamach

Analyst · Shannon O'Callaghan of Nomura

Yeah.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Julian Mitchell of Credit Suisse. Julian Mitchell – Credit Suisse: Thanks a lot. Yeah, I guess, my first question was, I mean last year it was fairly sort of controversial when you guys had this contingency number in your bridge and those are all talking around bad. I mean is it fair to say that your guidance for '12 has some contingency built in just for understandable reasons? You don't want to put it in print in an EPS bridge?

Steve Shawley

Analyst · Julian Mitchell of Credit Suisse

Well, we base the guidance what we are seeing in the markets for a top-line and more realistic pricing expectations, you can see from the guidance we are pretty bearish on Europe. I believe we are going to see a mild recession there. We are really there and across the company, we can execute the scenario of plans that are associated with that outlook. Remember Julian, we talked a lot about building scenario plans across the businesses in the company at multiple levels and so we are working that. The euro at 1.30 versus the average in 2011 of 1.40 has an impact for it. So I say the guidance reflects a level of operational performance that we have a line of sight to achieving based on the current capabilities of the organization, and the action plans that we believe are actually solid for the year. Now you would expect too that our internal plans are going to be set higher than that than the guidance range we gave, but we feel that the current range is appropriate for what we are seeing today and appropriate for what the current execution capability is inside the company. Julian Mitchell – Credit Suisse: Okay. Thanks. And then just to – it's a revisit to the point on the balance sheet, I mean there is this $1.1 billion of available cash generation and so on. So, can you confirm that there is no appetite or whatever to go for more M&A because obviously after dividends and the $300 million or $400 million you mentioned in the second half, that still implies several 100 million of available cash after all that?

Steve Shawley

Analyst · Julian Mitchell of Credit Suisse

Yeah, let me give you my thoughts on capital allocation for 2012. So, as you said we've got $1.1 billion that we're planning for the year. We ended the year with $1.2 billion of cash from the balance sheet. So, we're in a good shape there. The convertible bonds that mature in April, we're going to use about $350 million, when we raise the dividend by 33% with the March payout it will use in total in about $200 million. So, we here mark about $300 million to $400 million for buyback which should be in the back half of 2012. That's going to leave around $300 million to $400 million available for deployments and as you know, we've historically used cash in the first half. So, when we get to the second half, with fewer share prices and we will make the call and if there are smaller acquisitions that are attractive and actionable at a reasonable valuation we're going to pursue them. Again this is going to impact on kind of where the share price is. We would like to build on to some of the core businesses particularly overseas, but the valuation and profit of the targets will have to be consistent with our goals and with our commitments and obviously, even if all the excess cash went to M&A, we're not talking about anything large context of a $14 billion enterprise. So as we've decided best path to put the money back into further repurchase, then we'll do that as well. But we'll make that call on the last $300 million, $400 million based on that dynamics which are always moving. We’ll make that call in the back half of the year. Julian Mitchell – Credit Suisse: Thanks a lot. And then just one quick follow-up. It seems like this year in the HVAC industry generally in the U.S., there’ll be an abnormally sort of compressed supply chain effort against tough ready for the summer selling season, obviously inventories are very lean distributors and not in a rush to start ordering yet. So, on the assumption that you have a very soft Q1 and then a sort of abnormal spike into Q2 to get everything ready for the summer. How do you guys feel about the ability of your kind of manufacturing plants and supply chain to cope with that because obviously when we’ve had demand spikes before in late ’10 there were some issues around managing that.

Mike Lamach

Analyst · Julian Mitchell of Credit Suisse

I mean our suppliers are all in the same position looking for same sequential and they’re kind of trying to look at how do they respond to the same potential in the marketplace. So we put for the major suppliers a lot of protection programs in place to be able to protect for increases. Julian of course well it depends on how much the magnitude of an increase would be, but I don’t see sort of according to the plan we’ve got here on the outlook that we’re seeing through the new few months that that’s going to be a significant risk for us at all. Julian Mitchell – Credit Suisse: Thanks a lot.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And we have time for one more question today. Our next question comes from the line of Steven Winoker of Sanford Bernstein. Steven Winoker – Sanford Bernstein: Thanks for fitting me in.

Mike Lamach

Analyst · Steven Winoker of Sanford Bernstein

Hi, Steve. Steven Winoker – Sanford Bernstein: Good morning. So just you mentioned price inflation. You talked about 2.7 in price and 0.9 material inflation on the quarter. Just that 1% on productivity and other inflation, how are you, how much was the other inflation and how much was the productivity just the same beak out you gave on price?

Mike Lamach

Analyst · Steven Winoker of Sanford Bernstein

It’s actually exactly embedded in the fourth quarter, is that’s what you’re asking in that. So productivity equaled inflation. Steven Winoker – Sanford Bernstein: But it showed 100 basis point positive.

Mike Lamach

Analyst · Steven Winoker of Sanford Bernstein

Productivity. Okay, I’m adding back material inflation into of that. So I’m saying total productivity and total inflation gotten added. Steven Winoker – Sanford Bernstein: But not including price. So productivity equal total inflation.

Mike Lamach

Analyst · Steven Winoker of Sanford Bernstein

Right. Steven Winoker – Sanford Bernstein: Okay. All right. And that kind of run rate when you sort of think about that going forward to get your 50 basis points, mid-point margin expansion next year. Are you thinking about in acceleration therefore in the productivity particularly as you ramp through the year given the additional restructuring and how might we dimensionalize it?

Mike Lamach

Analyst · Steven Winoker of Sanford Bernstein

Yeah. I mean absolutely. The restructuring and the cost reduction investments being made now in the first quarter are all about that Steve. So we would expect to ramp it up in Q3 and Q4. We would expect to has benefit of that. Q2 – we’re still going to be – if you look at how we’re spending that investment restructuring for the year, it’s all Q1 and Q2, and the Q2 starts to be fairly early in Q2, so we would expect back half of the year. Steven Winoker – Sanford Bernstein: And the 19 value streams, are those – are you expanding those early in the year or just sticking to those or…?

Mike Lamach

Analyst · Steven Winoker of Sanford Bernstein

Yeah. No, we actually expanded on. What we decided to do though is take the value streams and for example we’ve got several that would have been ordered to shaft and we have expanded them from a proposal to cash. So we’ve lived in the value stream. We’ve had a great success in taking it through the entire value stream. We’ll add a few to it, but we’re going to stick to our mantra, which is really to go a mile, miles each and into the time and so happy with the 19. I think we’re add or had where we expect it to be. I think it’s a large transformational cultural change in the company and the last thing we want to do is to bet ourselves too thin. The – and we’ll talk about this in March when we’re together, but the resources and the capability building has gone out over the last couple of years they have been added to this is really outstanding and so I – more encouraged everyday looking at the capability coming into the company and maturing in the company to be able to go an inch wider as we go. So we’ll expand some, we’ll add a couple of new, but we won’t go so far as to spread ourselves too thin and that’s working for us. Steven Winoker – Sanford Bernstein: Great and is the ERP benefit. I know you’re building cost there still, but that – when do you start to ramp in benefits into that productivity number, or you already doing it?

Mike Lamach

Analyst · Steven Winoker of Sanford Bernstein

Yes, later in 2013 another thing that happened – another investment we’re making is we outsourced the lot of the infrastructure for IT and so we’re in the middle of transitioning about 350 people to a third-party to be able to do that for us. So we’re actually transitioning in quarter one, actually quarter four, quarter one, quarter two with duplication of resources there to handle that transition. That kicks in fully in 2013, as well as the initial phase of the ERP. But that’s going to be a slow fews all the way through 2016 in terms of when you really get the benefit. We don’t come to North America until 2015 with that ERP transformation. So, we’re doing Europe, then Asia and then North America. So it’ll ramp up over time. Steven Winoker – Sanford Bernstein: Okay. And then just a follow-up to your prior answers on a couple of questions. The risk on the supply chain, we just heard yesterday Emerson state pretty strongly that they have issues – potential issues in downsizing relative to the rest of their customer base. So, I guess I would just note that you feel protected even on that front with those guys?

Mike Lamach

Analyst · Steven Winoker of Sanford Bernstein

Well, we have number of sources to, in terms of what we’re buying. Okay, so yeah, we’re looking and if you think about sort of what’s growing for us, it’s really the res side 13 SEER, it’s a quarter of the market, right. And what we’re buying there and that’s really isn’t, you’re going to be an Emerson compressor, it could be then have to be – we’re fairly agnostic around that and we’ve designed to be agnostic around some of that. So we’ll look to protect. We’ll work with great supplier like Emerson to be able to handle our demand and to Julian’s question, it’s always a matter of degree. So I think we’re planning a some degree of sequential recovery here. We’re not planning for a barn burner, and if we see that coming, we’ll look to pressure test that supply chain. Steven Winoker – Sanford Bernstein: Okay great. And I’ll just follow up for rest of the questions offline. Thank you.

Mike Lamach

Analyst · Steven Winoker of Sanford Bernstein

Thank you, Steve. Janet Pfeffer – Vice President, Business Development and Investor Relations: Thank you everyone. And Joe and I will be available to have any – answer any follow-up for the rest of the day. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentleman, thank you for your participation in today’s conference. This does conclude the program and you may now disconnect. Everyone, have a good day.