Earnings Labs

Iridium Communications Inc. (IRDM)

Q2 2018 Earnings Call· Tue, Jul 31, 2018

$37.67

+0.72%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning and welcome to the Iridium Communications Second Quarter Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note, this event is being recorded. I'd now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Ken Levy, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Kenneth Levy

Analyst

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to Iridium's second quarter 2018 earnings call. Joining me on the call this morning are our CEO, Matt Desch; and our CFO, Tom Fitzpatrick. Today's call will begin with a discussion of our second quarter results, followed by Q&A. I trust you’ve had an opportunity to review this morning's earnings release, which is available on the Investor Relations section of Iridium's Web site. Before I turn things over to Matt, I’d like to caution all participants that our call may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements are statements that are not historical facts and include statements about our future expectations, plans and prospects. Such forward-looking statements are based upon our current beliefs and expectations and subject to risks, which could cause actual results to differ from forward-looking statements. Such risks are more fully discussed in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Our remarks today should be considered in light of such risks. Any forward-looking statements represent our views only as of today, and while we may elect to update forward-looking statements at some point in the future, we specifically disclaim any obligation to do so even if our views or expectations change. During the call, we'll also be referring to certain non-GAAP financial measures. These non-GAAP financial measures are not prepared in accordance with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. Please refer to today's earnings release in the Investor Relations section of our Web site for a reconciliation of these non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures. With that, let me turn things over to Matt.

Matt Desch

Analyst

Thanks, Ken. Good morning, everyone. As you saw in our press release this morning, sales momentum continued into the second quarter and its helping to drive another strong year of performance for Iridium. I’m particularly pleased that we push comfortably above 1 million subscribers this quarter, with subscriber growth continuing to accelerate its customers and partners flock to our nearly complete next-generation network. Our first half performance gives us the confidence to raise our full-year outlook for service revenue and operational EBITDA. Our business is really firing on all cylinders and we're capitalizing on the inherent benefits of our unique global LEO constellation. We are also excited that this is happening at the same time as we approach the imminent commercial launch of Iridium Certus, our new L-band broadband offering out later this year. As many of you know from our long affiliation with our story, our path to success has not always been as clear as it appears today. Its required vision, strong conviction and a tremendous amount of planning and operational execution. We’ve come a long way since our first launch early in 2017 and now about 80% of the traffic on our network is connecting to Iridium NEXT satellites. This upgrade has improved the performance of our core services and the quality is noticeable to our customers. The market has clearly now start to progress in executing our business plan and completing the Iridium NEXT constellation. Its apparent to longtime shareholders and even the casual investors who track our stock that Iridium is executing well and rapidly retiring risk. It is also obvious to our current partners who continue to generate strong subscriber growth and develop Iridium powered solutions. Most importantly, however, it is evident to many technology and distribution companies who want to join in our…

Tom Fitzpatrick

Analyst

Thanks, Matt, and good morning, everyone. We are proud of delivering another strong quarter with 20% growth in both revenue and operational EBITDA. The first half of the year has been solid with sales and EBITDA running ahead of plan and record net subscriber additions in our Commercial Business segment. Today I’d like to review our key financial metrics and provide some color on the trend supporting this quarter's strong performance. And I will discuss the details of some favorable developments in our arrangement with Aireon and close with a review of the upwardly revised full-year guidance we released this morning. Iridium generated second quarter total revenue of $134.9 million, which was up 21% from last year's comparable quarter. This was the best quarterly revenue growth in company history, fueled by double-digit revenue growth across all commercial revenue lines. Operational EBITDA increased by 20% from the prior year period to $78.7 million and our operational EBITDA margin was 58% this quarter. On the commercial side of our business, we reported record service revenue of $82 million in the second quarter, which was 27% higher than the prior year's quarter. This increase reflects the recording of $6.9 million and hosted payload revenue arise and voice revenue and the effects of accelerating growth in IoT subscribers. Voice and data revenue increased 10% in the most recent quarter principally reflecting targeted price changes adopted in April. With recent constellation upgrades, improving voice quality across our network and evolving competitive dynamics in the industry, we thought it appropriate to adjust some of our pricing plans. We've been pleased with how this has been received by the market. Importantly, it had not meaningfully affected net subscriber additions. In fact, we actually saw a rise in the pace of equipment sales during the quarter which is…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Greg Burns of Sidoti and Company. Please go ahead.

Greg Burns

Analyst

Good morning.

Matt Desch

Analyst

Hey, Greg.

Greg Burns

Analyst

Hi. Could you just talk about the dynamics in the handset market handset market that give you confidence to raise prices? What are you seeing from the competition, where you feel comfortable now raising your prices?

Matt Desch

Analyst

Well, I don’t know if that was completely in competition. We've always had -- we never really gone for the value and to the market we thought that this really knocked away the satellite market works. When people need a satellite phone they really are looking for the best to the most global solution, the one that they can rely on the most, and that’s been borne out over times. So this is -- our success in this space isn't brand new, but as our new network was coming online, really heard good things from our customers and partners about the quality of the service. As we saw an opportunity, we haven't really raised prices in the number of years, I think we [indiscernible]. And since it's primarily a device that is an access device used in sort of -- it's usually more of an insurance product for most people, a modest increase and the access price was warranted and we’ve been really pleased with the reception in the sense that really hasn’t affected our pace very much. It is true, some of our competitors aren't really as active as they had been. Some of our competitors don't have new phones anymore, one in particular. Others seem to be in sort of a different state of their business right now, perhaps, not emphasizing this quite as much as they have in the past. So I'd say, overall, I think we've often said to you that we feel confidence in sort of the baseline of our voice business. We didn't think it was a big -- it wasn't the -- where we were going to get a lot of our future growth from, but we thought it was stable and that it was foundation of our business. And I think this quarter proves that [indiscernible].

Tom Fitzpatrick

Analyst

Right. I would just amplify that to say, we’ve always characterize that which businesses its highly defensible and slow-growing. And it -- the fact that its defensible is what enables us to increase prices modestly in the face of a $3 billion investment at brand-new network.

Greg Burns

Analyst

Okay, great. Thanks. And then, looking at the government, Harris currently sourced their L-band broadband services and do you have a sense of how much revenues progress [ph] there once Certus is launched? Thanks.

Matt Desch

Analyst

Yes, so they currently get -- have sourced their L-band broadband from Inmarsat for the last number of years. I think the amount of business that’s been done has been between $100 million and $300 million depending upon the year over the last number of years. That was the only really choice they had for L-band broadband services. And now with Iridium Certus and they’re already by the way deploying the infrastructure right now to be able to use Iridium Certus and are starting to consider the acquisition. I’ve heard they’re particularly excited about the fact that our network really doesn't touch other countries, given the security and reliability of our network we cover more the world, including the [indiscernible]. It goes directly into U.S government facilities once it's completed. So we're excited about the potential for taking a significant part of that business. Our partner in that space is Comsat, which has a long-standing relationship with the U.S government. They understand how to build applications and support them and support their customers. So we believe that that's a great vehicle for us to service and support U.S government customers. So I'm very optimistic, particularly, about the long-term potential for the U.S government as a customer for Iridium Certus.

Greg Burns

Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question come from Ric Prentiss of Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Ric Prentiss

Analyst

Yes. Good morning, guys.

Matt Desch

Analyst

Good morning, Ric.

Ric Prentiss

Analyst

It certainly nice to have to be [indiscernible] at the launches in the Aireon [indiscernible] come into place. Couple of questions. Tom, you mentioned on the voice side the kind of $45 ARPU we'd expect to run through first half '19 and Certus can help the growth. How about on the IoT side? Obviously, a lot of success there, adding a lot of subs, how should we think about the pricing dynamics in that space?

Tom Fitzpatrick

Analyst

It's not. The pricing dynamic is holding up just fine. It is the subs that we’re adding are lower usage, so the [indiscernible] is profitable as higher ARPU subs. It's just [indiscernible] they’re on lower data kind of bundles, if you will. Most notably Garmin is our fastest growing. And those ARPUs are less than the average, and so we’ve said for some time that we see the ARPU in IoT -- the IoT business as a downward slope in line and that’s what you’ve seen in the current results and we'd expect that to continue with the outsize growth coming in the lower ARPU, lower data usage devices.

Ric Prentiss

Analyst

Okay. And then can you give us an update on the FAA side of things, as far as their review of the Aireon products?

Matt Desch

Analyst

Yes, everything I’ve heard has been positive. They're going through their process and still are on track to make decisions later this year and with still high expectations they will be deploying that. I do know -- I mean, we've been answering sort of an update on the FAA for the last several years. As you can tell with Tom's comments, we've worked hard over the last couple of years to kind of deconnect ourselves through Aireon. I know that FAA was very heavily connected to the hosting payments and all that sort of thing. And really we’ve largely unconnected that now with the arrangements that have been made with Aireon. So, well that will possibly trigger even more hosting fees to pay down our credit facility and that sort of thing. It's really not a liquidity issue anymore or a revenue recognition issue anymore. So -- but overall, I would say, I still think things continue to be very positive on the FAA front. They think -- they’ve recognized the value of the -- of having surveillance in their airspace. I've heard them speak positively about the potential for. It's just they got it still continue to go through their process of their speeds.

Ric Prentiss

Analyst

And then the derisking has been very [indiscernible] I appreciate all that work. So really kind of filters it down into the operations and so as you think about second half '18, going into '19 and the [indiscernible] Certus service, what should be monitoring, particularly, from the outside to watch the progress you guys are making?

Matt Desch

Analyst

Well, you certainly seen a lot of our announcements on partner announcements. It's been a lot of enthusiasm and pretty broad range group of distributors. You'll see us declare that to be commercially ready here in the next few months at most. Frankly, the product is very robust and it appears to us to be ready for commercial launch from the satellite and network perspective, we're just really waiting for our partners to be completely ready on their side. Broadband is a -- is an end-to-end product and you really want a great service all the way down to the ship for the airplane or the terrestrial device and it's in commercial beta testing and that seems to be going very well, but we're just waiting for a few of them to really kind of declare it to be bullet proof before we declare it commercial service. But you will see that and then I expect you'll see some revenue growth from it. Beyond that, I'd expect you will see continued IoT partner announcements, IoT growth. You'll start to see the technology being introduced from Certus into IoT in 2019. Our small form factor device, I'm pretty excited about the potential for that in IoT and in other markets like aviation. You'll see the aviation segment kind of come on in Certus next year. You'll see the DoD contract we signed. There is still a lot to be done early right here. It's not like the final launch is done and then we really have nothing to do for it any time. I think there's certainly a lot of activity across the board.

Ric Prentiss

Analyst

Great. Look forward to launching the ramping of the operations in the sales cycles. Good luck, guys.

Matt Desch

Analyst

Thanks, Ric.

Tom Fitzpatrick

Analyst

Thanks, Ric.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Hamed Khorsand of BWS Financial. Please go ahead.

Hamed Khorsand

Analyst

Hi. Good morning. About the IoT, the growth you’re seeing, is that relates to your Certus ramp or is that -- is there something else driving that growth?

Matt Desch

Analyst

Yes, so IoT right now is completely unconnected from the Certus -- the new Certus introduction, though Certus technology will eventually come into it next year and year beyond to sort of provide new products for IoT. But the current growth we're seeing is really baked around the hundreds of partners that we have in that space who are really doing very well in deploying lots of subscribers and growing service revenues. Then by the way, its across the number of our partners. I mean, obviously we’re achieving good growth and success in the heavy equipment segment, that was one of our more recent ones. Garmin is a good example of sort of the personal communication segment of IoT where there's a number of partners who are deploying products that individuals would want, going from commercial to enterprise to government sort of tracking and locations, but transportation logistics, it's been sort of recovery in oil and gas. Broad-based area of really of our partners are achieving success. So our model for IoT is primarily to bring the partner on and a year or two later they really start to deliver and we're seeing really the growth of partners delivered in previous years sort of hitting this year and we're expecting the partners we’re signing up this year to come on next year and continue to add to that growth.

Hamed Khorsand

Analyst

You were just touching on my next question, which was [indiscernible] with your voice subscriber increase. Is that related because of oil and gas? How sustainable is that? Are you taking market share?

Matt Desch

Analyst

Are you talking about in voice -- in satellite phones…?

Hamed Khorsand

Analyst

Yes, in the subscriber adds that you had.

Matt Desch

Analyst

Well, I mean, we’ve always had the largest share of that space right now. So I wouldn’t know that we were necessarily taking share or anything. We are really more holding our own and increasing the value of the segment that we have. There are a couple of products in that market line, commercial voice and data. It's not just satellite phones. It's also circuit-switched data devices that have been on ships and then certain applications that’s also open for pilots, which are maritime kind of high-speed broadband devices. So there's a couple segments in there. But clearly ARPU growth this quarter is primarily been about the access fee increase and it is adoption this year. But, overall, I mean, really I just think right now a global economy is pretty strong. The -- I think our brand is very strong. I think the quality of the product is recognized by our partners is good. I think our partner distribution is healthy. They see that they can make money with an Iridium satellite phone where they may not be able to make as much money with some of our competitors devices, so they want to sell us and they promote us. There's just a lot of different reasons I think for kind of why we’re -- we’ve always held up very well in this segment. And of course, it shift the -- it really is the fact that it work everywhere on the planet versus other solutions that only work on certain terrestrial regions, for example are in certain parts of the world or the fact that there's a lot of quality reasons why people I think prefer our devices.

Hamed Khorsand

Analyst

Yes. So, what I was trying to understand was, there was no one-time benefit because we’re seeing a ramp in oil and gas. That wasn’t the real reason why your subscriber numbers increased in voice and data, correct?

Matt Desch

Analyst

No. no, there's not one specific reason. It's really kind of the whole segment is holding up very nicely.

Hamed Khorsand

Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Matt Desch

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Louie DiPalma of William Blair. Please go ahead.

Louie DiPalma

Analyst

Hi. Good morning, Matt, Tom, and Ken.

Tom Fitzpatrick

Analyst

Hello, Louie.

Louie DiPalma

Analyst

Good morning. GMDSS was obviously positive for your maritime competitive positioning. For aviation, Iridium has announced that they've partnered with all of the major players. I was wondering what is necessary from a regulatory perspective and a technology perspective for Iridium to gain more share in aviation and cockpit connectivity? And I was wondering if there are any specific milestones that we should be looking for?

Matt Desch

Analyst

.:

Louie DiPalma

Analyst

Sounds good. And for IoT subscriber net adds were solid this quarter. For your short first data the 9603 modem, you have frequently discussed the demand from the heavy-duty machine vertical for asset tracking. And I was wondering if any other industry verticals have started to contribute in a material way?

Matt Desch

Analyst

Yes, so it's we make a few different devices and 9603 is the smallest. There's also the 9602 and we use the 9523. All of them kind of contribute to that segment and its broad-based. Heavy equipment is been a driver, but as said -- as Tom said, so is the personal communication segment. We haven't typically called out -- in a lot of times we call our Garmin, but actually a broad-based sort of using Iridium to connect people in small messaging devices that allow people to know where they are and for them to send messages back and forth, and send information of loved ones, and to track where they’re and that sort of thing is a kind of a broad-based segment which we are really kind of uniquely suited for and frankly I think we're the only one sort of in satellite that can do that. But we’re also seeing transportation, we’re seeing in logistics, we’re seeing oil and gas, we’re seeing -- just a broad number of our segments are doing pretty well right now. And I think it's kind of broad-based. I don’t know if there's a specific market segment I could call out necessarily though.

Louie DiPalma

Analyst

Okay. And lastly for Tom, I believe you mentioned that Aireon is obligated to pay $30 million between 2018 and 2019 out of the $200 million that they owe you. I was wondering in terms of the 2019 leverage guidance of 4.5x, what are you assuming in terms of how much money Aireon pays you over the next 20 months or so?

Tom Fitzpatrick

Analyst

The '19 guidance assumes that we get the majority of the posting.

Louie DiPalma

Analyst

Okay, thanks.

Tom Fitzpatrick

Analyst

Not the full $200 million, but the majority.

Louie DiPalma

Analyst

Great. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Paul Penney of Northland Securities. Please go ahead.

Greg Gibas

Analyst

Good morning, Matt. This is Greg on for Paul. Thanks for taking my questions. First regarding the new government contract that would begin in April 2019, what kind of changes in pricing should we expect here?

Matt Desch

Analyst

Yes, I was a little challenged talking out loud in the middle of a negotiation to provide too much guidance there. I’ve obviously quoted my response to beneficial for both parties and hopefully you can kind of get what that means. I'd say that -- the one thing I can say and I’ve said this in the past, there are what I would call core services that we've traditionally offer the government voice, secure voice, IoT, push to talk capabilities etcetera. And that's really how you value the last 5-year contract. Obviously, my comments about beneficial to both parties apply to those core services. What it doesn't apply to is new things, and particularly, Iridium Certus. So it's not going to be part of that core EMSS renewal contract because broadband that contract is still anticipated to be a unlimited all-you-can-eat kind of service and that will only make sense for narrowband type of services. So the upside really in our business and I think significant business for the government is going to be Iridium Certus and broadband. And there's some other additional services that come with things like satellite time and location, etcetera. So that's really our upside and there's significant upside, even though I think we'll do fine in the core business as well, primarily because the subscribers are growing so well and the government are seeing so much more value out of it.

Greg Gibas

Analyst

It makes sense. I understand. And then, second, in terms of commercial billable subscribers, you were just saying that the disparity and growth into IoT and in voice and data, which is a function of demand you’re seeing from those customers, but would it also be a function of the pricing at all?

Matt Desch

Analyst

No, not really. Our pricing hasn't really changed that much, if you would take sort of the price per kilobytes or some other sort of form that way or access and everything. It has been pretty stable really over the last couple of years. It's really all about usage in the case of IoT. And then in that case it's not because anyone using a [indiscernible] each different partner comes along with a brand-new -- say a new solution that have sort of an ARPU with it and we're bringing on more people who don't need to use the network much, they still value it, but it uses less ARPU. And that's fine with us, because the incremental cost of each of those dollars is extremely small. So it will add positively to our bottom line.

Tom Fitzpatrick

Analyst

I mean, just fundamentally our commercial voice and data businesses are legacy business. We’ve characterized it as slow-growing its niche, highly defensible and we are evident that with the pricing action that we’ve taken. IoT we're writing [indiscernible], but the Internet of people becoming the Internet of things and we are the premier satellite solution playing to that fundamental trend. And so that’s why we’re putting up subscriber gains at 25% and we don't think there's an end in sight at least if you read reports about the Internet of things and its proliferation.

Greg Gibas

Analyst

Got it. Got it. And then one last thing, regarding the hosted payload revenues [indiscernible] are these cash or non-cash?

Tom Fitzpatrick

Analyst

Well, it's -- so all of the data is cash. They pay it as we bill it. The hosting they’ve made an $8 million payment and contractually agreed to pay another $6 million, so all the cash, the rev rec will all be cash in 2018.

Greg Gibas

Analyst

Got it. Thanks. Congrats on the quarter.

Matt Desch

Analyst

Thanks, Paul (sic) [Greg].

Tom Fitzpatrick

Analyst

Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Fernando Lopez-Ona of Silver Rock Financial. Please go ahead.

Fernando Lopez-Ona

Analyst

Good morning. Congratulations on your numbers. Most of my questions have been answered. Thank you.

Matt Desch

Analyst

Great.

Tom Fitzpatrick

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Doug Thomas of Gabelli. Please go ahead.

Doug Thomas

Analyst

Hey, good morning. Congratulations on the financials and the launch last week. I just -- I know it's not directly relevant, Matt, but the FCC C-band 5g discussion and all that stuff. Does that a positive -- all that a positive in the sense that it just drives sort of enthusiasm and interest in adoption in using satellites, in general, for a lot of this traffic possibly. And is that -- is all this sort of a kind of an additional tailwind for you?

Matt Desch

Analyst

I don’t think so. I mean, it certainly is good thing for the operators who are able to participate in that, who have spectrum that will possibly be valued higher and you can see that in the -- I think it does draw attention, if you will, to satellite operators who are experiencing big equity growth that people look around and say what this mean. I don't think there's a direct comparison because I really feel this spectrum arbitrage, which we haven't ever participated and ever alluded to or apologize, because it has great value, if you can do it both, but we built our success on just the performance of our network and subscriber growth in building the business. So it is not really directly relatable to us. But it certainly isn't a bad thing for them and we [indiscernible] it.

Doug Thomas

Analyst

I guess, it's good for the -- I mean, it's just good for the industry, in general, from a financial point of view and from a -- an investor sentiment point of view that it's -- it can't be a bad thing, I guess.

Matt Desch

Analyst

Yes, that’s how I look at it too.

Doug Thomas

Analyst

And I had a question on [indiscernible]. I’m just wondering given the recent investments in the company and obviously the schedule for them to paying you, what -- how are we best sort of led to understand what ultimately evaluation of that is -- what [indiscernible] place the way you think they will and I think -- I don’t know where the FAA is going to come down in all of this. But what do you think this potentially could be worth and how does this get monetized down the road IPO or what do you think the true value of this business is as it relates to Iridium couple of years down the road?

Matt Desch

Analyst

It's just in general, [indiscernible] Tom, I appreciate his view too, but we own a piece of a company that has a kind of a yearly revenue potential really of more than $0.5 billion a year and with that lots and lots of cost. So it's a high margin business that we own a nice piece of. It won't be generating dividends for a couple of years, but I think it's going to get to cash flow positive pretty quickly and therefore start throwing off dividends down few years from now, which will -- could potentially be quite substantial, which is why I think the current investors are enthusiastic about it. And the nice thing it too had a long, long track record. There's not many other ways you can do this. It could become the global standard, so -- on all that basis, this is a very valuable company now. I don’t know exactly how Aireon will chose to monetize that. I'd be glad to take cash dividends and that sort of thing down the road, if that’s all it is. I’d say there are other things that can be done with that time, but I think given that a lot of its customers own it, they want to [indiscernible] maintain and ensure the success on long-term viability of the entity more than anything and will be working to protect that. But I think there's a lot of long-term value in Aireon to Iridium and we’re excited to be part of it. I think, Tom …

Tom Fitzpatrick

Analyst

Right. I mean, and we’ve laid out the kind of the flows that we expect them and [indiscernible] relative to our ownership interest they will pay us $120 million for half of our interest and we will be left with 22% of the company that is exclusively sort of going after $750 million per year TAM and as Matt said, they’re very profitable. So that’s how we think about it in terms of premium value to Iridium. And I think the same thing is if you think about what ADS-B is replacing radar, which technology date [ph] to the Second World War, this sure feels like a very durable kind of generational type of an enterprise and we already know who are hosted payload is going to be on the NEXT -- our NEXT next-generation constellation in going to be Aireon. So there's a lot of value flow into Iridium from Aireon for a very long time to come.

Doug Thomas

Analyst

Thanks, Tom. I appreciate it.

Tom Fitzpatrick

Analyst

Thanks, Doug.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Chris Quilty of Quilty Analytics. Please go ahead.

Chris Quilty

Analyst

Hey, Matt, two-part question on Certus. Number one, have your partners yet announce sort of the pricing plans? And generically how are they positioning those either relative to other services or competition? And part two of that is, do you have a sense of what end market, sort of what verticals, is it aviation, land or maritime really become the leading piece?

Matt Desch

Analyst

Okay. So the first one, we have started to see some pricing in the market, in fact from aggressive promotions and that sort of thing to get people to try which is exciting, because we see our partners are really kind of maybe even savoring this product which I think will bode well for it. It is still primarily the first market that’s going to be applied to as maritime and I think it's still heavily oriented as the backup to be [indiscernible] which is fine with us. That's a nice market segment for it. And I get the impression that they’re pricing it very competitively against previous L-band solutions. So it is kind of marketed itself, but I would say it's not heavy discounted. It's just -- it's going to be a better product at a reasonably improved competitive price. So it's a way -- it sort of seems to be positioned that certainly the way we designed it to be positioned. So all good in terms of that. As far as the ones, we are -- as I said we’re seeing good interest across all those three market segments. We’ve always expected that maritime would be the largest market segment just by history. There are -- it's going to get there first. That’s going to be the product that we will be starting to sell this year and maritime has a sort of a large distribution model that’s well established in for which Certus is going to go into operation pretty quickly. Terrestrial [ph] will be the next product. It’s the smallest of the three right now for us, but I have to say I'm really pleased with how it's been positioned. We are going to be like the only really truly on the move terrestrial broadband solution. A lot of things today are kind of move and stop and you have to -- or you have to put a lot of expense to have it be a truly efficient device on the move where our terrestrial Certus service product is going to be a much more efficient sort of terrestrial product. So we will see -- there will be a little bit of a new market segments in there that we will see how that evolves. And as I said, aviation is a natural market segment for Certus. We see a lot of potential there, a lot of excitement across our partners, but that just starts later. It starts more in 2019 when the products get certified. So I don't really expect that market to start growing in much in 2019, that will be more of a 2021 market segment. But it'll be probably about a little larger than terrestrial, but still smaller than maritime.

Chris Quilty

Analyst

Great. And one follow-up question for Tom. You gave several numbers on the hosted payload and other data service fees. There's at least one part time thing thrown in there with the Certus I think. I haven't had time to calculate numbers, can you just perhaps spoon-feed a bracket of what we should expect for full-year this year? And then, perhaps, what the run rate might look like going into '19?

Tom Fitzpatrick

Analyst

So, let's take hosted payload. We’ve said that’s $25 million in our -- guidance assumes $25 million this year for hosted payload. And then the full run rate is $47 million for hosted payloads at both Aireon and Harris. And the one kind of thing that needs to happen is, is there is a customer contract milestone that affects the data and power piece, so full run rate data and power is $23 million in 2019. We’ve assumed that, that contractual milestone in our long-term guidance is met early in the year, so we’re saying that its very close to $23 million is what we're assuming, but there is a milestone that needs to be made to hit that. I think data in 2018 is about $8 million bucks, Aireon data.

Chris Quilty

Analyst

Okay. And the Certus piece?

Tom Fitzpatrick

Analyst

Certus, will be -- we think it'll be 5-ish.

Chris Quilty

Analyst

In '18?

Tom Fitzpatrick

Analyst

Yes and not -- pretty close to that in '19.

Chris Quilty

Analyst

Okay, great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes Jim McIlree of Chardan Capital. Please go ahead.

James McIlree

Analyst

Thank you. Good morning. What needs to happen in order for the government to be a service customer? Did they have to build out gateways or you have to get a GSA contract or you have to build new handsets for them? What still needs to happen in order for that government usage of Certus?

Matt Desch

Analyst

Yes, the primary thing is that they need the government -- the Certus technology to be deployed at the government gateway, but they've already started that process. So they are -- they have contracted for to do that work and they are actually working on plans to install that equipment now. So that already -- that milestone sort of is passing right now and we see that that will be happening in 2019, at least that we would see them able to deploy Certus technology. Beyond that, they have to just contract with our primary partner. They have vehicles to do that. I think it's not going to be a win of a contract, per say, in a sense that they can deploy it. I think they’re already terminal providers, starting to work on solutions specifically for them and platforms that are considering using it. So, I mean it's really on kind of the path right now without any kind of specific big milestones that I think you’re looking for to be deployed at the government gateway.

James McIlree

Analyst

So just to be clear, it's not like you need an EMSS like contract in order for this to happen. There's already contract vehicles out there that can be utilized?

Matt Desch

Analyst

Yes, and unlike the EMSS contract where they would buy it directly from us, in this case that they would buy it from our partners who sell it to them. And the specific one that we've selected is COMSAT, which is part of Satcom Direct. I think COMSAT has been supplying them a lot of L-band broadband data in the past. They have a long-standing relationship. They know how to service and support that and it really would be -- that would be where they would procure it from and then COMSAT has made commitments to us in terms of their deploying that and selling it and we would see that that will just start -- revenue would start flowing, maybe 2019, but definitely 2021 we'd see revenue flowing from that.

James McIlree

Analyst

And is that -- its a new handsets or a new terminal device required or recommended?

Matt Desch

Analyst

No, it's the same technology really that has been -- is being deployed in commercial front. So, Thales or Cobham, Rockwell Collins, L-3, those kind of companies would be supplying technology to the U.S government would buy that either directly or through COMSAT and they would deploy it on to aircraft ships, deployed vehicles. We’ve already seen them actually test technology which was exciting. They tested our terrestrial technology and said it worked very well. So that was good for one of our partners, but no new technology. There may be a solution, there may be security that needs to be deployed that a commercial customer wouldn't deploy or it needs to be tied into specific systems, but that's kind of true if anything the government does. That’s not something we'd be involved in. It would be just the natural deployment of technology like they deploy IoT or other solutions today.

James McIlree

Analyst

Right, right. And -- but the government would need to deploy a new terminal not necessarily from you, but they would need a new terminal to access and service?

Matt Desch

Analyst

Right. Certus is -- the terminals that we’ve licensed companies to make and they’re currently making them. A good example would be the Thales Mission Link terminal that’s a terrestrial base service that would be perfect for the U.S government and the one that they could deploy very quickly on say on the year striker or something like that on terrestrial basis, that -- that’s available actually today and they could buy it today. So they're not limited today by the fact of needing some new device that is still years away from development.

James McIlree

Analyst

Got it. Okay, great. Thank you very much.

Matt Desch

Analyst

Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Our final question today comes from Louie DiPalma of William Blair. Please go ahead.

Louie DiPalma

Analyst

Hi. One last question. Last year AT&T awarded contract to Inmarsat for FirstNet. And I was wondering with your new Certus services, if there's opportunity for Iridium to gain First Responder related revenue, particularly with AT&T competitors that are also rolling out First Responder networks?

Matt Desch

Analyst

Louie, look, I think Iridium is a great choice for FirstNet and someday when they deploy that network and buy satellite equipments from anybody, I think that will be in the mix for both Certus and other technologies and I think by the way push to talk is a great technology for that as well. I think that will be in the mix for that, but that's not a real near-term big revenue opportunity for anybody. As far as the overall First Responders at work, yes, we're a big player all over the world right now and that's based on Certus. There's a lot of enthusiasm about terrestrial solutions for bringing quick broadband to First Responders using Certus. So I think that’s probably even a more real-time near-term opportunity for us.

Louie DiPalma

Analyst

Sounds good. Thanks.

Matt Desch

Analyst

Thanks, Louie.

Operator

Operator

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to management for any closing remarks.

Matt Desch

Analyst

Well, a lot of good questions. Thanks. And it was a good quarter and I look forward to seeing you all actually soon with the third quarter and to share with you our 8th launcher pretty soon. Thanks. Take care.

Operator

Operator

The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.