Earnings Labs

ORIX Corporation (IX)

Q4 2019 Earnings Call· Sat, May 11, 2019

$32.56

+0.18%

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Transcript

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

[Interpreted] Thank you very much for gathering today despite your busy schedules. Firstly, I would like to outline to you the overview of our performance. So if you can please refer to Page 3. So, first is net income and ROE. So for net income, last year was 313.1 billion yen and we increased year-on-year by 3.4% standing at 323.7 billion yen. ROE stands at 11.6%. And this does records growth for ten consecutive years and a record high for five consecutive years. And let us now move on to the next page. This shows the trends of segment profits and assets. Segment profits totaled 401.4 billion yen, down by 6% year-on-year. Investment and Operations segment had no capital gains from major PE investments and in our Overseas business segment, our company in India IL&FS, recorded losses. Now moving on to segment assets and this will be explained in more detail later on, but we were aggressive in our investments and versus last year, we increased by 900 billion yen year-on-year, resulting in a 10% increase giving us 9,997.7 billion yen. We are closing in on the 10 trillion yen mark. Now starting this fourth quarter, the segment classification for DAIKYO has shifted from Investment and Operation to Real Estate segment and so we have backtracked to last year to adjust the numbers. Now the details of each segment are shown on Page 17 and onwards. But allow me to briefly comment on each segment. So I'd like to start off with profit for the Corporate Financial Services segment. So this stands at 25.5 billion yen and in the previous year, we enjoyed gains from selling shares of affiliates and investment securities. And on the other hand, we continue to enjoy stable fee revenues. Now moving on to Maintenance Lease…

Makoto Inoue

Management

[Interpreted] My name is Inoue from ORIX, and I would also like to extend my gratitude for your participation today. So last year, we announced that for the three year period beginning FY 2019 March, we would grow net income between 4% to 8% versus FY 2018 March, sustain ROE above 11% and maintain Single A credit rating. The results for FY 2019 March was, net income 323.7 billion yen and a year-on-year increase of 3.4% from 313.1 billion yen. Some of the reasons behind this limited growth are: Overseas Business segment impairment amounting to 11.1 billion yen due to one of our businesses going insolvent and fee revenue declined due to a decrease in AUM as a result of the drop in stock prices last November. We have attained other goals, ROE stands at 11.6% and we have maintained our single A rating, a record-high for five consecutive years and growth for 10 consecutive years has been achieved. New investments for FY 2019 March amounted to 1,020 billion yen. The M&A market is currently quite heated, but we will selectively invest in growth-potential projects. Our strategy and direction for new investments remain unchanged. Major investments for – during the previous year were the aircraft lease company, Avolon, where we have 30% share now and NXT Capital in the U.S., which we have fully subsidized. As for Avolon, since ORIX investment, their ratings have improved to investment-grade bonds. We believe that they will contribute to cost deduction hereafter. As for NXT Capital, we can now leverage the Group's domestic and overseas sales network to potentially expand asset under management. Now, it is also true that continuing to just embarking on new investments for growth is proving to become difficult when we try to maintain our ROE above the 11% and…

Operator

Operator

[Interpreted] So let us move on to Q&A. [Operator Instructions] Our staff members will bring the microphone over to you. And please limit your questions to the maximum of two.

Masao Muraki

Analyst

[Interpreted] This is Muraki from Deutsche Securities. Two questions, please. The first question is on Page 5. So new disclosure policy you explained to us and I would like to thank you for this. So on the right-side, the - I believe these 16 units that you are now disclosing are very clear. So when you consider the current ORIX management structure, these 16 units or this level, 16 units, is this optimal? And do you think this scope is adequate or do you plan to further increase the number of units? So that is the first question. And the second question, in the last part of your presentation, you mentioned your capital policy and the RAC ratio has dropped slightly. So, if you invest 1 trillion yen, you did buyback, you may not have any leeway and obviously, you are faced with that challenge throughout the year in hindsight. So, as the CEO, you just mentioned, you are saying that within the current economic environments you are willing to drop your ratings to further make new investments and buyback and you want to consider that within this fiscal year. So, is that the interpretation? And is this interpretation accurate? So I would like to confirm that point. So if you consider a long cycle during the previous recession, you were very dependent on short-term financing and you did not have much leeway for ratings, as well or credit rating. So you could not make major investments, but with a good environment, you are willing to let go or drop your ratings. And still, at the same time, go after new investments?

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

[Interpreted] So, thank you. So the 16 segments or units that we've disclosed. At this point in time, I think the question is – excuse me, I do think that these 16 units subject to disclosure is adequate at this point in time. But we will continue our activity. So, perhaps after a year or two, we will have to disclose maybe 20. And even if we further clarify or disclose, then it will be quite, quite detailed. But if it's too much detailed. It might be a bit confusing. So for the time being, we will keep it at 16. But it is not limited to 16 units. It may expand to 17, 18 or 20 units to be disclosed in more detail. But at this point in time, we are disclosing 16 units. So Single A rating and sustaining or maintaining this rating. When we acquired Avolon, from S&P, we were claimed as Negative Watch. So the reasons being that, there was – they deemed us doubtful under RAC ratio as well. So 11 were dropped closer to 10 or even below 10. So, RAC ratio is not the only condition for the ratings. However, when we do face a major project or a deal, we will converse with the credit parties whether it's negative or not and we converse and have dialogue. But, if there is a major deal in the works and if we have to stop our growth strategy or not go after the deal, just because we want to maintain the Single A rating, we want to avoid such a situation. So A Minus or Triple B Plus, there is not much impact on financings. But if there is another Lehman Shock for instance, 1%, 2% perhaps that is within boundaries. And so at this point in time, we do not know which way is the optimal way. We will have to go through the detailed analysis. However, as in the case of Avolon, which was a major investment, there are no major investments in the horizon. At the biggest maybe 100 million yen – 100 billion yen or less, so when a major project does come our way, what we need to do, we will make sure that we are ready and analyze and decide what policy we will be taking. So this goes back to the question of buyback. If we do, maybe 100 billion yen buyback and the RAC rate goes below 10% and our ratings go down. And obviously, it will confuse the markets and people will wonder what we are doing. So, obviously, we will validate each scenario and with the upcoming few months, we will come up with a policy. But yet, we have come to a conclusion.

Masao Muraki

Analyst

[Interpreted] Another technical question if I may. And so, you did have subordinate bonds in the past, but you don't have that option anymore. So, it's either common stock or debt. So it's one or the other.

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

[Interpreted] No, no, no. That is not the case. We are in conversation with many banks still. And so, the – for instance, in terms of subordinate issuance, for instance or bonds, we are considering that discussion. So again, in light of a major product, if it does come our way, we will consider the balance between the RAC ratio.

Masao Muraki

Analyst

[Interpreted] Thank you.

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

[Interpreted] So let us move on to the next question.

Kazuki Watanabe

Analyst

[Interpreted] From Daiwa Securities, my name is Watanabe. I have two questions. The first question. This year, for the 2019, what would be the driver for growth? That's the first question. What would be the growth driver for growth of your profit? And 16 units that you have disclosed this time around. So, can we -- which unit do you have the greatest expectations for? If you could give us the color to the 16 units? And the second is, so, in terms of the divestment of the assets, if it is at the peak of its price, do you think that it will be the timing for you to divest or do you think that you should give away to the steady growth of your profit going forward?

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

[Interpreted] So, as to the driver of growth such as mega solar, for example, it is making 100% contribution to the profit generation. Avolon, in November, we have executed our program. So therefore, this year, we can enjoy the profit generation to the full. However, the existing deals or existing line of business would not allow us to maintain this 4% to 8% of growth. So, therefore, for this fiscal period as well, we would have to make a new investment and also, we would have to engage in divestment, as well. Otherwise, we will not be able to maintain this growth of 4% to 8%. So, this is why we are referring to the investment pipeline and also, at the same time, we are creating a short list of the assets that we may be able to dispose of, which would allow us to generate some capital gain. Having said that though, going forward, just as I had told you, MICE IR, which is some years ahead and also Umekita project. I am sure, in total, would be hundreds of billions of yen of investment and this investment to this kind of project, after we complete the investment, we will now be able to start generating the profit. So it will take time before we can start generating profit from this project. So we have to strike the right balance, which is not an easy job to be done. But we would have to do a good job, otherwise, we will not be able to maintain this growth of 4% to 8%. We are fully aware of this and that's how we try to drive the business going forward. In terms of the real estate market, I think the market is at its peak. This is our understanding. So…

Kazuki Watanabe

Analyst

[Interpreted] Yes. Thank you very much.

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

[Interpreted] So let us move on to the next question.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

[Interpreted] Two questions, please. The first question, you mentioned buyback and shareholder return in your presentation. So, 30%, you will sustain the ratio at 30%? I see it in the literatures. But 30 yen to 35 yen, that is the forecast which is an increase of 10%. But your net income or profit, you want to – you say that you will struggle. It's a challenge to increase 4% or more. I know that you will be very aggressive. So this 30% - so this 30% payout ratio, what is the intent behind this in sustaining this level?

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

[Interpreted] Sorry, 30%, so you, you – so 35% increasing it to – is that the question?

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

[Interpreted] Yes. So do you have an intent on increasing? And the second question, [Foreign Language] in the rebalancing of your portfolio, ORIX Living as well as you also sold off the Golfing business as well. But perhaps – so you have a – you made a major investment of PE, but you have goodwill. And it goes back to the strategy, perhaps at times you may have to drastically shift your strategy. But again, if you take into account potential for the future growth, there may be times that you have to opt to not make an investment.

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

[Interpreted] Excuse me. So, let me respond to that the first question, which is the dividend and the payout ratio 30%, whether it's adequate or not. And to be quite candid, I do believe we had a question, the same question last year, it was 27% in the past. But when we look at the market, 27% level is only us perhaps. Most are at 30%, some actually set a ratio at 50%. So, as long as we have dollar with the market, minimum is 30%, but at the same time, how do we time our growth? And where do we put emphasis on growth? When do we put emphasis on shareholder return? So it's all about balance. So if we are going to be aggressive with growth, then it will be 30%. But we will actually increase the absolute monetary value. So we want to sustain that level. So that is our message. So it's not 30%. It's not 30% for the sake of 30%. 30% is the sake for us to grow as a company. And if we are growing as a company, then our message is that, please, please feel that 30% is fit. But if we grow even further, then we have to increase the ratio – the payout ratio more. So obviously it's about balance. But for the time being, it's 30% and we have to make sure that we keep this intact and this is the balance that we'd like to sustain for the time being. Now, moving on to your – excuse me, what's your second question? I did not fully understand the question.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

[Interpreted] So you have major overseas investments and some of them perhaps were strategically very important, but for those that are actually you are generating losses. Now, so if there is a major goodwill attached, then would you be willing to – or what would you be willing to do with such assets overseas?

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

[Interpreted] So the nature of our deals or projects that we invest in goodwill is something that cannot be avoided. Avolon goodwill was zero. So if it is a deal, goodwill zero, then we should be making investment and if ROA is more than 3% and ROE is more than 11% or more, and if that is the contribution level of that project, obviously, that is what we want and that is why we are trying to find something like that. PE business as well, we want to expand the PE business as well. However, just we cannot repeatedly buy and buy and buy companies with goodwill over and over again. So, because the investment will bloat. So again, it's about balance. Now ORIX Living and ORIX Golf. The reasons why we sold off Golf, it's quite simple, because the golfer population is in their 65 to 70s at the moment, the baby boomers, so to speak. Five years down the line, they will become in the 70, 75, which means that there will be a decline in the golfing population and the play fees as well are dropping. But obviously, if we did not have a buyer, we could not do this. But Accordia Golf, they are the largest golf course operator here in Japan. That is their intent. And so, it was a win-win decision, and we decided to sell and transfer the business. So, there may be no profit growth for ORIX. But from the outside, there are external companies that feel that there is still growth potential. So we can sell that business at a premium and if there is no buyer, then we will not sell. Now for ORIX Living, Daiwa Securities was the buyer and they are trying to expand their healthcare business. They want to emphasize or strengthen their healthcare business. So, we considered to what extent do we have the luxury of allocating resources and money to expand this business. We realized that there was a limit. So that is why we decided to sell. So it's a project-by-project consideration. If we can consider growth potential, we will make sure that we possess and hold that asset and add value. But for ORIX, again from the viewpoint of ORIX, if we can no longer add value, then we will divest. But then, if it is an industry where we can actually inject our knowhow and insight, then we will continue to make new investments. So it's two wheels that we are running simultaneously. I do hope that this answers your question.

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

[Interpreted] Thank you very much. So let us entertain our next question. So the person in the middle of the room.

Keisuke Moriyama

Analyst

[Interpreted] Thank you very much. I am Moriyama from Macquarie Capital, and I have one question. So the number of units which you have expanded to 16. So, the framework that you have created this time around. So the growth prospect of the existing businesses, I am sure it was something that you referred to. Automotives and Rentec, you have mentioned the two in your presentation today. I know it may sound kind of strange, my question, talking about your DNA and also the replacement of some of the assets and also the new investment, because I think you would find it – you find it – you would be very passionate in taking action in that regard. However, if you want to – you would have to be persistent on growing your businesses, otherwise, you will not be able to achieve this 4% to 8% of growth that you set by to achieve. So, as a company, are you trying to introduce a new KPI in order to motivate the people?

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

[Interpreted] So, DNA of ORIX that that we would of course grow and buy and sell, but at the moment, we have 32,000 people working for us and of course, everyone had different opinions. There were some people who were very conservative who did not want to sell some of our assets. But of course, we had to convince them in order to rebalance our portfolio. But if we want to maintain the Single A rating and achieve ROE of above 11%, then 10 trillion yen of assets could be grown to 15 trillion yen, 20 trillion yen and 30 trillion yen. But I don't think that is possible, because it contradicts with each other. So, currently, our asset is about 12 trillion yen, but maintaining this size, while maintaining the ROE above 11% and Single A rating, which means that we will have – we are propelled to be rebalancing our portfolio. So, with that being the premise, we are in fact reviewing our portfolio. So, ROE of 11% and above and also at the same time, Single A rating and talking about KPI, as a Japanese company, especially on the sales side, introducing KPI is not an easy thing to do. The back-office as well as middle-office we have introduced our KPIs. But for the sales and marketing, it is not easy to introduce KPIs, because, from the top management, of course, we have been quite demanding in setting the debt target, ROE of 11% and ROA of 3%. In fact, it has been the edge box. So whatever the investment that allows us to achieve these numbers, we would consider the deal. That's what we have been telling the sales and marketing activities, the people. So, but, for the next two to three years, if we can achieve the growth of 3% to 4%, we may consider, but in the first year, we may have to complement with some other businesses. So we have to strike the balance between these different nature of businesses or characteristics of the PL profile of each and every businesses. So does that answer your question? So let us move on to the next question.

Shinichiro Nakamura

Analyst

[Interpreted] Nakamura from SMBC Nikko Securities. Two questions, please. The first question. First one, it refers to Page 10, ORIX Europe or Robeco. So, AUM, your plan is to increase or expand the AUM. But initially, in comparison to your initial forecast, I think that fees and AUM, you are struggling. So, how do you deem this business as of today? And if you are to be able to value up or add value, what are some of the possibilities? So that's the first question. Second question, I think that the IR resort in Osaka, we are seeing some more details. And so, for instance, how do you see the extent of growth potential, so, to the extent that you can disclose?

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

[Interpreted] So, for Robeco, the first question, as of November last year, the equity prices dropped and AUM did drop significantly. Fee revenue, there was a strong suppression pressure. But, when we look at the index funds, still, Robeco has alternative PE funds and are not in existence. And so, on top of this, Mariners, Robeco and, in the U.S., NXT Capital, these entities have acquired many, many asset in management. RB capital in Brazil is one of them as well. So, in a fancy way, we can say that this is a multi-boutique, but can they succeed? And the sales or distribution channel integrating the channel and creating a holding company, putting all the AUM together and then establish a distributed sales force and handle each of their respective products, such a reorganization or re-structuralization is a need. And without this reorganization, even if we were to acquire new businesses, the comprehensive synergy effects cannot be enjoyed and to enjoy these synergy effects, we have to integrate. And I say this and I put this very simply, but it is extremely difficult. So how do we combine these forces? And that will be the biggest theme for me this year. Without this integration, however, it will be just multiple entities. So, that means that we will have to consider divesture in the horizon, as well. So, currently, 44 trillion yen. But it is midway, I believe. So when we look at the competitive global market, we have to triple the AUM to be able to survive in this market. So double or triple, and so we have to newly acquire and since November last year, for M&A, the prices are dropping. So, when the price tags further drop, then there will be a turnaround where we can be more aggressive in buying and this will also trigger more integration. So without this, we will see a ceiling or hit a ceiling for AUM business – AM business, I am sorry. So, going on to the second question, which is MICE, finally, the qualifications for bidding will be issued in June and sometime next year, March, I believe, they will select a candidate for the operation. So we are steady at the moment.

Shinichiro Nakamura

Analyst

[Interpreted] Thank you very much.

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

[Interpreted] This is going to be the final question.

Koichi Niwa

Analyst

[Interpreted] I am from Citigroup Securities. My name is Niwa. I would like to ask questions about shareholders' return and also, at the same time, unrealized latent profit. First of all, the shareholders' return, especially the share repurchase program within this fiscal period, you may arrive at a conclusion. I think that’s been said by Mr. Inoue. But if I were to perhaps kind of analyze this, why did you not execute within the last fiscal period at the backdrop, of course, you are paying out more and also the profit you had that increased, but the share price in fact is not rising. So that's the first question and the second is with regard to the latent gain, the unrealized profit, and I know that you have quite a large amount of unrealized gains, but within the card that you can play, how much and where does it come from and as compared to March end of 2018, March end of 2019, how much of an increase were you able to achieve in this unrealized gains?

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

[Interpreted] With regard to the share price, to be honest with you, this is the biggest headache that I have, because even if I try my utmost best, I will not be able to raise our share prices and with regard to the repurchase program of our shares, Avolon, NXT Capital, we have spent 350 billion yen in total and the investment amounted to a total of 1 trillion yen or so. So 100 billion yen of a repurchase program, if we were to execute this, it would affect the RAC rate. So this is why, for the past fiscal period, we decided to shelve it. But when we had a discussion internally, of course, there was mixed opinions and all the Board members were not for the repurchase program. Like SoftBank, why don't you make new investment to the extent of 1 trillion yen, 2 trillion yen. But on the other hand, there were some who were against for the repurchase. And of course, we have the backlog, as well for the new investment, as well. So, therefore, there is no point in us lowering credit rating by carrying out the repurchase program in an outstretched manner. So this is why we have decided not to execute the plan. But as you know, over the past five days, unfortunately, the share price had continuously declined, and I don't know what would happen to U.S. China relations. Some people say that, optimistically saying that, it would settle down somehow. But, even if we were to repurchase, the share price may continue to decline. So, I think the timing is pretty important. So we would have to make the correct decision as to the timing. So that's all I can say for now. And as to the latent gain or the…