Craig L. Martin - President and Chief Executive Officer
Analyst · Jefferies
Thank you, John. Good morning. I'm now on slide seven. I want to just run through our strategies for maintaining that 15% growth in the long run sort of forever more. And these haven't changed any. You've seen them all before. We remain committed to our business model, our relationship-based business model. We are going to continue to focus on selective market diversity, try to make sure our business is balanced across the markets. And I'll talk more about each of those in a minute. We are going to continue to grow through a multi-domestic strategy. And our strategy has been and continues to be to follow our core clients into geographies where they need our services. That will continue to be our approach as we go forward and we will be able to do that both through bootstrap kind to investments and perhaps through some acquisitions. A recent example of that would have been the deal we made with ZATE in Saudi Arabia to give ourselves a presence in the Middle East in Saudi Arabia to match our presence in Abu Dhabi. So that's an area where we continue to see opportunities for growth and we are going to continue to focus on that client-driven geographic expansion. Acquisitions are going to continue to be a part of our mix of business. Now there is lots of opportunities out there right now. It's an interesting time in the marketplace in that a number of mid-sized players have concluded that they can't compete with the global players. We think there will be ongoing opportunities for additional growth from acquisitions. Pricing is moderating, which we also think is a good thing. And we are going to stick to our sort of standard approach in dealing with these acquisitions, buy good companies with... on basis of their earnings, pay a fair price, get a cultural match and move forward. And then finally, we still believe that keeping your costs down is a critical aspect of being successful in our business. And we are hardly... we hardly have a day now we don't focus on making sure our costs are tightly under control. The boom we are facing today is a great thing to be in. We are doing really well. We can expect to continue to do well, but we want to be positioned for the future, whether it's as bright as it is today or not. Moving on now to slide eight, I'll talk a little bit more about our relationship-based business model. And let me start by reminding you of the... what we think of as the industry model, that pie-chart on the right. For the most part, our industry grew... focused on big events. And as companies in the industry got bigger, they focused on bigger events. And even today, most of our competitors are very much driven around big event projects and often big jobs in faraway places for clients that don't necessarily build every day. A lot of this work can be lump sum turnkey. Surprisingly, in a market as robust as ours, we still see a lot of lump sum turnkey opportunities out there. Those obviously aren't opportunities for us, but they are driving some of our competitors. Our competitors also have a mix of business just like we do. So they do some discrete project and they do have some preferred relationships. And the ratios of those numbers will vary by which competitor you pick. But the critical point is that they are all driven by the big event. We take the opposite approach. We try to build long-term relationships with our companies... customers, sometimes 50, 60 year relationships and maintain and expand those relationships as we grow as a company. Today, we get more than half our profitability from only 40 clients. And those are our core clients. We have preferred relationships with about 80% of our business, and that keeps our business growing steadily and keeps us in a great position with those customers regardless of where we are in the market cycle. A lot of the business we do with these customers goes on year in and year out and is really baseload business rather than big event business. We also do discrete projects just like our compensation. This tends to be for customers we have worked for before, but with whom we have not yet developed that deep preferred relationship. About 90 plus percent of our business today comes from customers we have worked for in the past, in the recent past in fact. And we believe that will continue. And then we may have the occasional transactional project in backlog. It isn't a driver for our business. We couldn't care less one way or the other whether we do or not. But there are occasionally opportunities to make a little extra money or to take particular position that will result in a nice up to high [ph] for our shareholders. So that's the business as we see it today. The relationship-based business model continues to be a strong model, and frankly, we continue to see very few competitors in our space on a global basis. Switching now to slide 9. This is our market diversity slide, or our revenue by market. I'll take you through each of these markets to give you a sense of where we think the business is right now and where it might be going. I'll start on the refining side; that's the downstream side of the oil and gas business, really robust business for us. As you can see right now, it's about 32% of revenue. There is lots of activity in that market. And it continues to be very robust business as we look forward. Just to kind of give you some high level statistics, there's a lot of activity in things like environmental projects. An example would be the MSAT II project. There is something like 80 of those projects out there. We estimate just that piece of business will be 6 plus billion. We have got the business... we have taken the diesel out of bunker fuel coming out... or the sulfur out of bunker fuel coming up under Marpole 4 [ph]. Our guys estimate that could be $80 billion worth of work. There is a belief that we are going to see some changes related to alternative fuels that could drive a huge investment as well and in this case, an investment that will be made by our refining customers. We see that as another opportunity. And just to give you a sense of where the market is right now, we went through a review of prospects here in the U.S. and identified over $15 billion which were upcoming projects in the next 12 months. So we are pretty optimistic about the refining business as we go forward. Globally, that business is very strong as well. Our guys estimate something like $195 billion worth of projects in the next few years. Turn to the upstream oil and gas. As you know for us, that's mostly the oil sands business in Canada. It does include some work in the gas area around the world, onshore in the U.S., onshore in the Netherlands and in the UK, offshore in the North Sea. Again, a very strong business even with the recent weakening... it's kind of embarrassing to call a move from 140 to 120 a weakening... of oil prices, we see a huge amount of investment. Again, our estimate on the oil stands alone is something like $115 billion. So we see that as a very robust market and we are continuing to see opportunities to continue to grow our business as well. Turning to the chemicals market, another good market for us, about 13% of the business. The major CapEx in chemicals is for the most part going to the Middle East and Asia. You won't see a lot of that kind of investment in North America or Europe because of the feedstock issues. However, there is a fairly significant number of small projects and they are sort of maintenance capital... baseload capital that we talked about a lot. One bright spot in the chemicals business is polysilicon. We have announced one major win in the polysilicon area. There are lots of opportunities out there. And we see that as fueling some of the chemicals business as we go forward in addition to what's happening in the Middle East and Asia. Pulp and paper high tech, food and consumer projects sort of our catch all category. There is not much story here. Markets are not particularly strong. There is not a lot of activity, and we don't expect to see a lot growth out of that aspect of the business. PharmaBio is softer than it has been. It's about like what we reported a quarter ago. There is some activity. We have a commanding market share, but we are not seeing a lot of growth in that market as we look forward right now. So we think PharmaBio will be a little slow until the pipeline picks up and we start seeing more project activity in PharmaBio. National governments is another very robust market for us. Remember, it's driven by two parts: one is the environmental clean up market, the other is the research and development test engineering and scientific and technical consulting. Starting with the environmental business, it continues to be a good business. The U.S. business is steady. The business in the UK is continuing to grow and we expect to see additional opportunities there. There is still a number of the UK programs left to be competed or to be decided if they are not in competition. And we think we'll be able to benefit not only as a tier one contractor in that business, but at tier two and at tier three. On the research and development test engineering business, right now, that business is very robust, particularly working for customers like NASA. We've seen a lot of activity. We've been very successful in winning re-competes. We are being very successful in winning additional business for our company. We think that will continue. There is some reason to think that in the out years, the shift of investment from Iraq to other issues may affect that business. On the other hand, the last two times we saw such a shift, we actually benefited from it. So there is not any reason, as I sit here today, to think another spending shift won't still be an advantage for Jacobs given our fairly unique position in that market. Turning to the buildings business, about 6% of our business. Very active, some very significant wins in the last quarter. The business is growing nicely. You remember that this is technical buildings. It's buildings where the technical complexity of the program is a critical factor in whether not we are a player. We don't do office buildings or hotels or apartment complexes. So the kinds of projects we work on tend to be driven by the marketplace for those technically complex buildings, which is a little independent of the overall economy. So things there include big healthcare work and big scientific and technical facilities such as the Eicher facility in France. And those businesses look to us and remain pretty solid as we go forward. The last aspect of our business is the infrastructure piece. Again, a good strong business for us, lots of activity there. We seem to be doing very well. There are two issues that seem to driving it. While we see some weakness in some of the states, Florida, Texas in the U.S., in terms of the money they have available to spend. A lot of that's being replaced by local bond issues, a lot of bond programs out there. The last bond cycle that we have data for, 88.9% of the bonds for infrastructure past. There is also a lot of money coming into the system in the form of public-private partnerships and toll road programs. We just looked at a major toll road program in one of the Southern states this week that represents a huge opportunity for us as a company, all driven by tolling that freeway. I guess it won't be free any more after that. So overall, when we look around the clock at the business, for the most part, our businesses are pretty robust. Our sales numbers are coming in good. You can see the results on the revenue line. We are exceeding our expectations for the year. We expect that that should result in some pretty good performance in the out years. And with that, let me turn to our commercial at the very end. This is slide ten. All the good reasons why you all should... an idea of investing in Jacobs. We do have our customer diverse... customer-driven business model. It is important to us that we continue to do that. It's the core of what we are accomplishing, and it's building a terrific base business for us as we go forward. We are diversified in terms of markets, geographies and services. We are in what is a strong market still. We have got a good, solid balance sheet and we believe we will be able to maintain that 15% average growth for a long time to come. And with that, I will turn it back for questions. Question And Answer