Craig L. Martin
Analyst · JPMorgan
We apologize for that. Isn't technology a wonder these days? I think we got cut off somewhere about the time I was starting my discussion. So I'm going to pick up there. If we've missed something when we get into the Q&A, please let us know. So I'm going to start on Slide 7 with the growth strategy. These are the same 5 points that we make every quarter because this is fundamentally our approach to the business. Nothing about it changes significantly from quarter-to-quarter. The first 4 bullets, our business model, our market diversity, our geographic diversity and our approach to acquisitions, I'm going to talk about in more depth as we go through the rest of the presentation. But I wanted to take just a minute to talk about the last bullet, driving down costs. As you know, Jacobs has always taken the position that aggressive cost control is a good strategy for supporting growth and profitability, and we believe that continues to be the case. So we're very focused on cost control as we go forward. We've been pretty aggressive about recruitment and bringing in teams for the work that we see out in front of us. That's impacted our costs a little bit this quarter, as John mentioned. But overall, we see our cost posture as good, and the good news is, we see margins as starting to improve a little bit from a standpoint of new sales. So we think the opportunity to raise prices, particularly in the private sector, is out there as we speak. Public sector is going to remain a little more competitive, but that actually plays to our strengths. So we think the markets, from a cost perspective, will be a little bit better for us going forward. Moving on now to Slide 8. This is our -- a little different version of a slide, some of you may have seen this before, about our relationship-based business model. As you recall, our business model is based on long-term relationships with our customers and a high level of repurchase loyalty. We do well in that regard. Our repeat business last quarter was over 91%. We got almost 80% of our business from preferred relationships, and our core clients dominate those preferred relationships. But you can see here how the model works. We build relationships with these customers. They trust us. We improve our business and provide them with superior value. That's what gets us that repurchase loyalty and reinforces those long-term relationships. From that loyalty, we get growth that the clients fuel. We get a lower cost of doing business and more manageable risk. All that helps us grow earnings. We reinvest that in the business to improve our delivery to our customers, and we end up with what is a pretty virtuous cycle as we see it. This is a very different model than our competition, who tends to focus on big events, on lump sum turnkey on the -- on a global competitive slate. And you rarely hear us talk about those kinds of outcomes. Moving on now to Slide 9. Here’s our market diversity. You can get a sense of how the business is distributed at the moment. I'm going to take each one of the major areas and talk about it in a little more detail. Let me start first with the public and institutional markets, and so we'll turn to Slide 10. As you recall, that's made up of 3 groups: national governments, infrastructure and buildings. Let me talk about each one of those in order. The national governments business, believe it or not, is actually improving from our perspective. What's happening in terms of the technical complexity of projects and this trend toward multi-award task order contracts, the so-called MATOCs, actually puts us in a position to expand our share of the market. We're also very well positioned in the well-funded segments. Cyber security and IT, environmental management are all areas where we expect strong funding relative to the overall government markets going forward. And then the old budget issue is also driving opportunities in outsourcing and GOCOs, government-operated -- government-owned, contactor-operated projects, something we're very good at. So we see a lot of potential there. The environmental management business, I mentioned that already, but it continues to be strong, U.K. NDA spending something on the order of $140 billion over the next 2 years and DOE spending continuing to increase in that area. So the national governments market is actually a positive for us in the overall public and institutional business that we're encouraged about the way we can take position. And it's -- in this case, it's all about taking market share. The infrastructure business is also improving, not rapidly, but it is getting better. The strengths tend to be in water, rail, transit, aviation, the kinds of businesses that have user fees to support the investment. There are also lots of opportunities in the Middle East, India, Australia, plus opportunities to work on our mining and minerals and oil and gas projects. And I'll talk about that more again in a minute. We also see a lot of opportunity in the U.S. in the pipeline infrastructure, design and upgrades. We think we're well positioned to take advantage of that, so we see that as another growth opportunity for our infrastructure business going forward. Turning to the third part of that area of our business, the public & institutional area, buildings is kind of a mixed bag right now. The nonfederal spending is improving. The federal spending is weak. Where we see the investment in federal is largely in things like data centers, other mission-critical applications, energy programs, that sort of thing. And we certainly are the world's leader in the data center mission-critical facility type. If you look at the backlog chart there on the right-hand side of the chart, you can see that we've maintained a good, steady backlog quarter-over-quarter. I think we'll be able to continue to make our position a solid one in the public & institutional area as we go forward. Moving on now to Slide 11, this is the process area of our business. That's chemicals, oil and gas, upstream and downstream. Let me start with the downstream side of the business, the refining business. Crack spreads today are actually quite good, particularly on the U.S. Gulf Coast. In the West Coast, they're probably as strong as we've seen them in a long time. The refiners tend to spend the cash flow, so that's a positive for refinery investment. Singapore is profitable for the first time in some time on the crack spread basis, and only Northern Europe is really weak, comparatively speaking. We're seeing lots of activity around better efficiency, flexibility in terms of heavy sour crudes and, of course, the environmentally driven projects. There's a lot of clean fuel activity for export, particularly Middle East, India. And then we're seeing a fair amount of possibilities in South America, although we'll have to see how the Argentine thing sorts itself out. Moving on to oil and gas. That market is very strong. There’s just a tremendous amount of opportunity in the shale oil, shale gas world. Oil sands, particularly SAGD, are very active. We see an $18 billion to $20 billion capital expenditure in 2012, and we see every reason to think that's going to continue to increase over the next few years. There's a lot of prospects coming across in pretty much all phases. And the -- interestingly, the heavy-sour/light-sweet spread is about $15 a barrel, which also makes the Canadian crudes attractive. There's a -- construction capability is starting to become an issue, and I'm going to talk a little bit more about construction later in the conversation. But the oil and gas business is very strong for Jacobs right now, and we see every reason to think it's going to continue to be so. On the chemicals side, again a really strong business right now, as strong as we've seen it in 15 years probably. Certainly, low gas prices are driving investments in North America. Growth in the so-called BRIC countries, China, India, Brazil, are also causing people to consider expansion investments. We see lots going on in North America, the Middle East, India, Asia. We're well positioned to take advantage of those things. And in particular, Jacobs' strength is in the secondary and tertiary chemicals. So these 8 crackers that have been announced in the U.S., which, if they all got built, would be something like $32 billion worth of investment -- I don't think they all will get built -- will drive a lot of chemical projects for Jacobs as well. And you can see we've got nice backlog growth quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year in the process business. So that's a positive for us. Moving on to Slide 12. This is what we call industrial. I'll start with the pharmabio business. We see a lot of continuing investment in emerging markets. This is one of those areas where Jacobs has a unique position, long client relationships, global reach and a sort of a last-man-standing position. Most of the major competitors have left the pharma business, pretty much leaving us as the industry leader, and we're doing some pretty impressive work as a result. We've -- we won an ENR best award for our work for Merck recently, and it's a good example of the kind of work we're doing for our pharma clients around the world. Mining and minerals continues to be very strong. You'll see that word adjacency opportunities again here. Not only is the mining and minerals business about ore processing and all the related activities, it's also a big buildings and infrastructure business. That's what we mean by adjacency. And we see significant growth opportunities for all of our businesses in supporting the mining and minerals industry. We've got solid momentum there. We're starting to get some pretty significant wins. And we're seeing a continuing investment, particularly in things like copper and gold, where our customers are just forging ahead very strongly in spite of the slight reduction in copper prices. This is also a business where our relationship-based business model resonates very strongly with the customer, and we see that as a real positive. And then finally, sort of our other category, that's power, pulp and paper, high tech, food and consumer products, kind of a mixed market. Pulp and paper in the U.S. is again probably as good as it's been in very long time. Our high-tech spending, the -- mostly, that's semiconductor, is up with selected clients, and there are some very large prospects in the offing. Consumer products tends to be a little softer right now, but we are seeing a lot of emerging markets opportunity, and we continue to be well in alliances. And our kind of role as the supporting cast in the power business, doing the work other than watch the power line [ph] itself, continues to be a positive for us. This is an area -- if -- again, if you look at the backlog chart on the right, we've had very strong backlog growth quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year. That then moves us to our geographic markets. Let me just kind of work through those one at a time. I've talked a lot about the North American market already, strong oil sands, good position for us on the government side, rail and transit improving. But I think, again, a big part of the story is gas and chemicals. The natural gas CapEx is estimated to be something on the order of $200 billion in the next 20 years. And the chemical market is surging strongly. We think we'll see $25 billion to $35 billion of real projects get done. South America, we're a mid player in the mining and minerals market. We're aggressively exploring opportunities in Brazil. We have another -- customers who are -- make investments there. There's also a big refining opportunity coming in South America, though I don't know what impact this -- the situation in Argentina will have on all of that. But it does look like a good, strong market for us. Moving over to Europe. Infrastructure and buildings remain under pressure, but the other aspects of our business over there are pretty good. Environmental and nuclear [ph] business is strong. We're seeing a lot of opportunity in the defense business in the U.K. And interestingly enough, there seems to be a lot of medium and small projects in the oil and gas industry, refining, chemicals and the like. I spent a couple of weeks in Europe and the Middle East right before this call, talked with a number of customers. I was actually quite pleasantly surprised at the number of investments that are planned, in particular for Northern Europe, in the chemicals and refining arena. That was a real positive for us. And then, of course, Africa, not a big market for us, but we do see some emerging opportunities in the mining and minerals business. Moving over to the Middle East. Just a huge market for us. I mentioned I spent the other half of my trip in the Middle East. The prospects there are just enormous. There just tremendous activity. We are very well positioned. We're -- continue to be the industry leader in things like GES plus, and our investment there in the Middle East is a strength for us. You can just see the investments that people are planning. And it's not just the process business anymore, there's strong activity in both buildings and infrastructure, and we're positioned to take advantage of it. Moving on to India. Great business for us. We're in both sides of the business there, buildings and infrastructure and the process business. India's planned a $1 trillion investment over the next 5 years in India. They never spend everything they plan to, but they might spend half that and that will be a huge market opportunity for us. We continue to see big expansions from our customers in refining and chemicals. Indian Oil has a big expansion program. Reliance continues to spend aggressively to grow their business. So we think India is going to be very important to us in our growth, both in India and in supporting our growth in other areas. China and Southeast Asia. For us, this is really China and Singapore. Good businesses right now. A lot of activity. The refining business is finally profitable again. But our big opportunities, I think, are supporting our pharmabio clients, particularly pharmabio clients investing in China. We're positioned to both serve those clients from a global perspective as well as actually execute the local delivery to support those customers. And then finally, Australia, another growth opportunity for us. Very significant mining and minerals business. Very significant oil and gas. It just plays right to Jacobs’ strength, and we expect to be seeing significant growth out of the Australian operations. I promised I'd take a minute to talk about construction. We took a hard look at construction to help answer some of the questions about where is the construction business going and when should we start to see the construction side of the business pick up. On the maintenance side, I think the significant ramp is out in the first quarter of '13. On the construction side, looks like the significant ramp is starting at the end of this year. And both of those then continue for about as far out as we can reasonably predict at pretty aggressive growth. So we think the construction business is still maybe a quarter or 2 out, but we do expect pretty substantial growth in both the maintenance and construction side, the field services business, I guess, as we look ahead into the fourth quarter and beyond. Finally turning to Slide 14. This is their acquisition slide. We continue to have the focuses that we've described in the past: China, Australia, Brazil, oil and gas, mining, IT, niche additions to our business. Power as well if we could find the right deal. And of course, we're always interested in adding customers who can put us close to the core client -- kinds of clients. So moving now to 15. I think we've got a good story in spite of the weakness of this quarter's performance. And we got a solid business model where we've got good market and geographic diversity. Our balance sheet's strong and will certainly support expansion and strategic acquisitions. And we continue to have a good, solid cost position. And I think that'll allow us to continue to achieve that 15% compound growth goal that we all talk about. So with that, I'll turn this back over to you all for Q&A, and I apologize about this -- the break earlier in our technology.