George Kunberger
Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead
Okay, thanks, Noel. Good morning everybody. I would like to take just a few moments to talk about two important sectors; one, the industrial sector and then I want to talk a little bit longer about our public and institutional business. So on the industrial which is Slide 12, let me just make a couple of points and then we’ll move on to the public sector part of the business. As you well know, those who have been following us for a long time, the industrial sector is an important - not necessarily a large robust part of our business but still nonetheless a very important business. Represents about - if you look at the number rights now about 10%, a little over 10% of our backlog and about 12% or 13% of our graining 12 month’s revenue. But we’re going in to the couple of sectors, let me just make a couple of points. On the biopharma, those of you who have been maybe watching shows [ph] like 15 minutes, having been following some of the tremendous development in immunotherapy that have been going on in medicine around the world, that is now starting to cascade into significant capital spending plans in the part of all the big pharma businesses around the world. I mean, I’ve heard quotes and I wouldn’t under a lot of [indiscernible] swear to this, but certainly our clients talk about those numbers being in terms of four to five times the capital spending plans on big biotech project plans over the next 10 year than we saw in the 1990s and early 2000s. And, of course, as you well know, Jacobs has been a longstanding, strong player in the pharma business. We remain that way today. We’ve expanded our presence to be more than just U.S. and Western European base. It’s now being truly global. So we’re well positioned and indeed while we’re not in a position to announce specifics because the press releases our out, but we have been successful in winning several nice large projects on a global basis that hopefully we’ll be able to talk more specifically about that in the coming weeks. So pretty bullish on pharma. It’s only 4% of our backlog but it is a growing business and we could be in a very strong position. I won’t say a lot about mining. It really hasn’t change in the last three months. I don’t anticipate that the situation in mining is going to change dramatically. Our position remains as it’s been, good, strong percentage [ph] cap development. We are participating in the various studies that are ongoing. And a couple of big capital projects and there are a couple still out there that are being considered, we are positioned well to compete. So I don’t think there’s going to be a big change in that business over the next year, for sure. But it is an important part of our business and it will be certainly in three or four years when commodity prices turnaround. Pulp and paper, high-tech consumer products, you all know, we’ve been a big alliance player which feeds [ph] well under our consumer products business and our high-tech business around the world. And we have a little bit and Noel is going to get mad at me for saying this but we’re not really - no one has a power player and I’m not really saying we are but there is a lot of money being spent around the world and we’re positioned in some niche market that really are going to be important part of our sales for the next 6 to 9 months. Those are specifically some of the new builds that are going on in the UK. We’re not necessarily in the power hour island part of that but certainly in the OSDL part of that. And then in areas like the Middle East where there’s lots of nation building going on. There’s a lot of what you could call broader utility work in support of some of those facilities, new cities, new industrial manufacturing facilities that are actively engaged in. So power is the broadest sense of the work is not a small piece of our business and we are going to be making some sales going forward. So that’s really all I wanted to say about the industrial sector. But I obviously want to spend a little bit more time about our public and institutional business. It’s a big part of our business. It’s a growing part of our businesses and I think it’s an area that I think we’re looking to stabilize our finances and our growth as a company certainly over the next six months and as the process areas Gary just talked about start to recover and we grow again in that area. First of all, in the national government side, this business today - well, first of all, it constitutes a couple of governments. It’s U.S. government as you all well know. It’s certainly as U.K. government and Australia and a couple of other governments, but primarily, those three. The spending forecast in the U.S. and the U.K. and also in Australia. From an MOD [ph] Department of Defense areas is actually forecasted to grow in 2015 and even further in 2016 by about 8% each year. So it’s sort of bottomed out and it’s starting to grow again. The pattern of spending in the federal government specifically in the U.S. has become very backend from a fiscal year perspective than it has been in recent years. And the case in point, if you note that, actually, our backlog is down a little bit quarter-over-quarter. But if you look at our federal bids of today, we are at an all-time record high as far as the number of opportunities that we have submitted specific proposals on and are awaiting decisions that will happen between now and the end of our fiscal year. That actually represents about $5 billion to $6 billion of revenue just on pending opportunities in that particular business which are our technology business. And of course, as you well know, we generally do pretty well there. So our conversion rate is high and so we anticipate that’s a big part of our sales in the second half. But it’s not going to end at the end of this year. There is another $4 billion to $5 billion worth of prospects that are near term, in other words, we’ll be submitting proposals on those between now and the end of this fiscal year. So those will cascade into FY ’16 as far as opportunities for us. So our federal government business is robust and growing and we anticipate it to be very strong at the second half of this year and into ’16. On the infrastructure business, as you well know, that’s a pretty broad global business for us. I mean, we have big business in U.K., we have big business in U.S., we have a growing business in the Middle East, and of course, a very large business in Australia and New Zealand and then supplemental businesses in some of the developing areas on an opportunity by opportunity basis. That overall business, I wouldn’t - it’s certainly not as robust as our federal business but it is continuing to grow, as I’ve shared with you on some of the conferences that we’ve had in the last two or three months. I’ll look at that at a 3% to 5% growth ongoing basis, nice, steady state. It ebbs and flows a little bit. U.K. right now is particularly strong, as an example, as we go through the new AMP6 programs and the new programs on transportation spending. The U.S. continues to be a little challenged but not as challenged as it was two or three years ago. But certainly the federal government spending in the support of transportation projects is a little soft, and so it’s more about taking market share in the U.S. than it is about just riding a strong market. The Middle East, because of the things we’ve talked about several times, the spinoff of their big oil projects to fund a lot of development of cities and - I’m looking at their the - industrial facilities - thank you, always need a little help from your friends. And spinning off a lot of projects. And because of our cross-selling across our various lines of businesses, we’ve been able to bring a lot of that work there in the Middle East. And of course, is - the government in Australia is using funding on infrastructure really to sort of fund the growth of the overall economy there. So that business continues to be strong and growing since we bought SKM a little while ago. So I feel strongly about the infrastructure business going forward and so continue to stay, like I said, 3% to 5%. Buildings business is pretty similar to the infrastructure business. It’s a steady growth business. It is also global in nature for us. We have continued to do a lot of work in the U.S. for the federal government and various municipal governments and state governments, as well as hospitals and schools and things like that around the country. But as you well know, as a result of the acquisition of KlingStubbins a few years ago, we have opened ourselves up into the private sector part of that business. And so the opportunities continue to grow there. And then we’ve been able to take that capability and spread it again into the Middle East, into the U.K., supporting their buildings business over there, and very definitely into Australia to support buildings business associated with things like airports and schools and hospitals there. So that business is a global business for us. And it is also continuing to grow, again, at a pace of about 3% to 4%, I’d say, year in and year out for right now. So overall, it’s a good day-to-day [ph] business and really highlighted by the federal spending, both in U.S., U.K. and Australia. And I would anticipate, although I won’t promise, that our backlog will continue if what I said about the federal spending on those big projects beholds [ph] and the government doesn’t delay their decision-making in the last part of this year which is always possible, then we should be seeing continued growth in our backlog going into ’16 and in that sector. That’s pretty much, Noel.