Steven Demetriou
Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets
Thank you, Kevin. I'm now on Slide 13. As we move into the 2016 outlook, I'd first like to update you on our end market diversity and give you a brief overview on how these markets are impacting Jacobs as we start the new fiscal year. As you know, we are one of the most diverse E & C companies and our cost reimbursable contracts continue to represent 83% of our revenues. As I referenced in my opening comments our revenue mix continues to evolve with total fiscal year 2015 oil and gas refining and chemicals represented approximately 43% of total revenues down from 48% in fiscal year 2014. But within that group of businesses, chemicals increased. Buildings and infrastructure grew from 17% to 21% of total revenues and national government grew from 18% to 22%, both being notable increases that offset the declines in upstream oil and gas and certain mining sectors. Starting with next quarter's earnings call, we'll discuss our end markets by the new four lines of global businesses consistent with our new organization structure. This new segmentation will be consistent with the way we'll prioritize and focus growth initiatives while also providing shareholders better clarity on the performance and benefits of our diverse portfolio. However, for today consistent with how we've previously discussed our markets, I'll now provide an update on how we see things trending in fiscal year 2016. This next slide starts with our processed segment which includes the Oil & Gas Refining and Chemical sectors. As we look to fiscal year 2016 the outlook continues to present a mixed bag. As you all know, the significant decline in oil prices has had a major impact on our customers' cash flows and capital spend, especially in the upstream side of the oil and gas sector. It has been reported that CapEx at the large integrated oil companies was down more than 20% in 2015 and there were reports of further CapEx spending declines in 2016. As a result this has negatively impacted our backlog and margins in this sector. However, we do believe we are near the bottom and demand will stabilize in this new fiscal year. We're specifically seen an impact in the Canadian oil sands market, however, our team is doing an excellent job in the region of refocusing on smaller sustaining capital and maintenance work and is increasing market share with our clients. And even in the face of low oil prices we're continuing to see investments in selective regions such as the Middle East and Africa where we're building upon our local presence. While our crude oil feedstock costs have had a positive impact on independent refiners margins and we're seeing a steady business in this part of the process segment with a strong backlog of sustaining capital in refinery upgrade projects. We are also seeing opportunities to help our customers in their product flexibility, operating efficiencies and compliance with safety environmental regulations. The strongest part of our process segment is in the chemicals sector. We are in the mix for several interesting growth prospects across the globe. In fact we were just informed of a major win with one of the largest petrochemical companies which we will provide further information about later in the first quarter. In summary, our process segment has faced significant headwinds, however, with our geographic and end market diversity, coupled with our sustaining services focus, and based on our strong track record of success we believe we are poised to start experiencing overall growth in the backend of fiscal 2016 in the process sector. So now on to slide 15. Our Industrial group is highlighted on the next slide which includes our pharma-bio, mining and minerals, specialty chemicals and manufacturing markets. In the pharma-bio space we're clearly experiencing a strong growth and our backlog has significant increased from a year ago. Increased M&A consolidations are occurring driving select opportunities for Jacobs to help clients with portfolio consolidation and optimization. Aging populations, emerging market expansion, technology advances are all driving a transformational growth cycle in the pharma sector. We have strengthened our leadership focus and multi office strategy to go after the strong growth potential and we're well positioned with our China and Southeast Asia presence in addition to our well established U.S. and Europe capability. In specialty chemicals and manufacturing we are facing solid market opportunities. This involves several smaller sectors including pulp and paper, consumer products and inorganic chemicals. Several of our pulp and paper clients are expanding offshore and we're leveraging our strong domestic position to follow these customers in their overseas expansions. We're increasing focus on consumer products globally. Also as part of our reorganization, we've put our global specialty chemical technologies under one leader to create synergies. This includes our Comprimo sulfur, Chemetics sulfuric acid and our phosphoric acid technologies. We believe this will enable Jacobs to participate more broadly in our customer projects by leveraging our specific strengths to help customers who benefit from our technologies. In addition to this, we're also seeing strong consultancy activity in power especially in Asia Pacific where we're looking to increase our market share. We do continue to face challenging times in mining and minerals. After slashing CapEx in 2015 our customers are expected to remain extremely cautious in their 2016 spend. We are partly mitigating this with market share growth and sustaining capital projects and are well position in our pursuit of the few large prospects of South America and the Far East. The bright spot in this segment is in our fertilizer activities where we have a strong position in Morocco and are developing opportunities across the globe. On the next Slide is our public and institutional group. Our national government business is picking up momentum and is positively positioned in 2016. While challenges exist with reductions in government spending and delayed award cycles, we're continuing to gain market shares to offset these dynamics and believe that the recent federal budget deal provides stability over the next few years. We are well positioned with our long-standing relationships such as NASA as well as for emerging opportunities and commercial advanced technical facility designs along with building operations work for aerospace, automotive and energy markets. The strategic investments over the past few years are starting to show benefits including the largest of those our accusations of FNS as part of our intelligence community and cyber security growth strategy. The well funded national security priorities are expected to provide growth for our Jacobs technology group. Our expansion investments have test and training range operations or maintenance especially for the U.S. army of providing good growth opportunities in this sector. Also we are experiencing positive trends in the nuclear sector associated with new builds primarily in the UK. Our infrastructure business is experiencing good growth opportunities across the globe led by our strong physician and transportation including highways rail and aviation. We are hoping the news associated with a potential U.S. Federal Highway Funding Bill will provide the stimulus to drive growth for Jacobs and we’re well positioned in the UK and in Australia for several highway opportunities. The railway transit markets are fairly robust across the globe, particularly in high-speed rail. And in aviation, where we have a leading planning and asset management practice where we are positioned positively for many of the expansion initiatives especially across U.S., UK and the Middle East. Also positive for our infrastructure group is continued growth in environmental and water. We are also expecting steady growth opportunities in the building sector, specifically in aviation, education health care and mission critical end markets. Leveraging off of our infrastructure relationships, we’re seeing increased activity in the buildings component of aviation. In the UK and certain U.S. reasons we're also seeing a trend to upgrade educational facilities and we're pursuing numerous opportunities across the globe and health care. In Australia we are well positioned for the potential education city project of Melbourne which have funded quick present [ph] Jacobs with a significant role over a long period of time. Mission critical should continue to be a high growth opportunity where for example we have a strong position with one of the largest cloud store donors in this business. Although we are experienced in positive trends across our public and institutional businesses with a slowdown in the industrial markets we’re seeing some margin pressure as competition on the refocuses on this growth sector. On Slide 17 I would like to briefly discuss the recent reorganization of Jacobs which represents the first step in our transformation. In discussing some of my initial impressions of Jacobs earlier I’ve mentioned several enhancements to improve our company. To meet the improvement goals we announce the realignment of our leadership structure around four global lines of business. One of the important changes is the integration of the sales organization into these global lines of businesses to more deeply embed and strengthen the partnership between winning business and delivering the projects. To ensure consistent support for the new business structure the four lines of businesses will be strengthened by newly established global centers of excellence for sales and for project delivery, which will focus on standardizing and optimizing our processes, tools and systems to ensure we have the highest global capabilities across Jacobs. I would also like to note that the reorganization provides the opportunity to further lean out our overhead structure and drive further cost savings. We believe that this significant change in leadership focus on accountability will be a key driver in profitably transforming Jacobs and it will be integral to outperforming the market over the longer term and will provide greater clarity to our customers and shareholders. I am confident that the improved business line structure and cost reduction initiatives will preserve the best of the past and better position us to enhance our already strong competitive position. Ultimately greater accountability, efficiency, focus, simplicity, and transparency will drive stronger, more profitable long term growth. So turning to Slide 18, when we report altogether for fiscal year 2016 we believe we will continue to face a very challenging global environment with uncertainty and limited visibility in several of our markets. It is clear that in petroleum and mining and general industrial commodity markets our clients are waiting to decide when and how to spend their cash. We do believe that the clients in some of these end markets have either hit or are close to bottom. On the flip side, we believe that our buildings, infrastructure, pharma and federal work will provide growth opportunities in 2016, thus balancing and demonstrating the strength of our diversity which provides the ability to deliver stable earnings in uneven market conditions. We expect fiscal year first quarter to be our most challenging quarter of the year with EPS below last year’s first quarter, but a more stable situation to then develop as we move further into 2016. For total fiscal year of 2016 we're providing initial guidance between $20.80 and $3.30 for adjusted EPS which we believe to be a prudent view given the current uncertain global environment. In response to this uncertainty we will continue to take every step possible to drive further cost efficiencies that leaned out our overhead structure without impacting our ability to win new business. We will be disciplined to ensure we capture the full year remaining incremental 2016 savings associated with our 2015 restructuring initiative. And although our recently announced reorganization was about strengthening our leadership culture, providing much needed focus and accountability, we expect it will also yield additional cost savings as we move through fiscal year 2016. In addition, we will continue to evaluate our office footprint and procurement processes to seek further cost savings opportunities. There is a clear energy building across Jacobs and with our customers, with the senior leadership now clarified and the reorganization fully executed there is a new culture of intense focus, higher accountability and excitement building across the company. The majority of our heavy lifting associated with the restructuring has been executed and although there will be additional cost initiatives, our focus is now pivoting toward flawlessly executing projects of our customers and profitably growing the company. So now, to slide 19. To summarize 2015 fiscal year post a different environment and the company took few steps to proactively mitigate the challenges. Looking to fiscal year 16, we expect continued uncertainty and an uneven economic environment to persist. We currently expect fiscal 2016 results to be softer in the first half, but the second half to be stronger as cost savings benefits are realized and market conditions begin to improve. The new business structure that we implemented at Jacobs simplifies with the company globally and will ensure a stronger leadership team is in place to focus on our long term strategic objectives. To further support this greater clarity on strategic growth is needed and a deep dive strategic review is underway. We will provide some additional comments on this in our investor presentation tomorrow morning and discuss our thoughts on how we will drive strategy. We believe the initiatives we have undertaken and those we continued to implement here at Jacobs are aligning with shareholders interest and will ensure we are well positioned to drive long term profitable growth. Thank you for listening and we’ll now open it up for questions.