Earnings Labs

JAKKS Pacific, Inc. (JAKK)

Q1 2018 Earnings Call· Thu, Apr 26, 2018

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning and welcome to the JAKKS Pacific First Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call with management, who will review financial results for the quarter ending March 31st, 2018. JAKKS issued its earnings press release earlier this morning. Presentation slides including information covered in both today's earnings press release and call are available on our website in the Investor section. This presentation includes videos showing some of our key products. On the call this morning are Stephen Berman, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Brent Novak, Chief Financial Officer. Mr. Berman will first provide an overview of the quarter and provide highlights of product lines and current business trends. Then Mr. Novak will provide detailed comments regarding JAKKS Pacific's financial and operational results, prior to opening up the call for your questions. Your line will be placed on mute for the first portion of the call. [Operator Instructions]. Before we begin, the company would like to point out that any comments made about JAKKS Pacific's future performance, events, or circumstances, including the estimates of sales and/or EBITDA growth in 2018 as well as any other forward-looking statements concerning 2018 and beyond, are subject to Safe Harbor protection under Federal securities laws. These statements reflect the company's best judgment based on current market trends and conditions today and are subject to certain risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected in such forward-looking statements. For details concerning these and other risks and uncertainties, you should consult JAKKS' most recent 10-K and 10-Q filings with the SEC as well as the company's other reports subsequently filed with the SEC from time-to-time. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. With that, I would like to turn the call over to Stephen Berman.

Stephen Berman

Chairman

Good morning everyone and thank you for joining us today for our first quarter 2018 earnings conference call. In our call today we'll discuss the factors that drove our first quarter results, including several successful new product launches, some new products that declined from the last year, the impact of the liquidation of Toys 'R' Us North American stores, and our plans for the rest of 2018. I'll make some comments on our business. Then our new Chief Financial Officer, Brent Novak, will discuss our financial performance. After that, I will talk about some of the things that we are looking forward to over the course of the rest of 2018 and beyond. Not surprisingly our business was significantly affected by two impactful events from Toys 'R' Us. Going into 2018, Toys 'R' Us bankruptcy filing last year had led us to expect store closures and therefore lower sales to Toys 'R' Us in 2018. The liquidation announced late in first quarter obviously led to lower sales in the quarter and a much lower outlook for the year. We supported Toys 'R' Us and as a critical vendor continued to ship them during the first quarter, although as conservatively as we could. But the important thing is that underlying demand for our toys has not gone down, it's gone up. Our POS at retailers where we can measure it is up low-to-mid-single-digits in the first quarter. Our sales to other brick-and-mortar customers were up during the first quarter and our sales to online retailers were up double-digits in the first quarter. So while we recognize that the loss of a major customer like Toys 'R' Us in North America and in the UK is not a positive, we do expect that over time we can make up most of these…

Brent Novak

Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Stephen and good morning everyone. Net sales for the 2018 first quarter were $93 million compared to $94.5 million last year. The decline is essentially due to a decrease in sales to Toys 'R' Us. The reported net loss for the quarter was $36.2 million or $1.57 per diluted share compared to a net loss of $18.3 million or $1.01 per diluted share in the first quarter of last year. Adjusted EBITDA for the 2018 first quarter was negative $14.6 million compared to negative $10.6 million in the first quarter of 2017. All of these metrics were significantly and negatively affected by the bankruptcy and liquidation of Toys 'R' Us as further discussed in a moment. The sales drivers in the quarter by category were as follows. Sales of Dolls, roleplay and Dress Up, plush, and activity products in our girls category amounted to $44.5 million for the 2018 first quarter compared to $46.4 million in the comparable quarter last year driven by the 2017 third quarter launch of Squish-Dee-Lish slow-rise foam collectibles, the girls portion of Incredibles, Tangled - The Series, and Perfectly Cute a private label brand we produced for one customer. These brand helped to offset the expected decline in a number of girls lines including Beauty and The Beast, Moana, Tsum Tsum and Gift Ems. We should note that Perfectly Cute is part of a private label brand that replaced the Honestly Cute line at the same retailer. Sales of Perfectly Cute fully offset the decline in Honestly Cute. Sales of action figures, vehicles, roleplay, and electronic products in our boys and other category for the first quarter were $20.5 million compared to $16 million last year, driven by Incredibles, Stanley, Real Workin' Buddies Mr. Dusty, which were partially offset as expected by the…

Stephen Berman

Chairman

Thank you, Brent. Before we get into the Q&A, I will share some thoughts on how we see the rest of this year playing out, starting with a few properties that will be important. As I said earlier, Incredibles 2 hits theaters on June 15 and we are very well-positioned with a full line of figures, accessories, diecast, role play, and costumes. It's one of our broadest lines ever of licensed product. MorfBoard is off to a fantastic start and the momentum is really building. The fact that most of it is an outdoor toy should make it sell well during the summer, but we also expect it to do well during the holidays because of its price point and because it's a great gift. Another seasonal product we're expecting good results from is Fly Wheels, a proprietary line of kid-sized tricycles with special features and the best licenses. This is a proven ride on category and our line provides great value for consumers and good margins for JAKKS. We continue to add licenses to our Squish-Dee-Lish line which is one of the leaders in the slow-rise foam category and sell-through continues to be strong. Squish-Dee-Lish is driving at the time when some of the industry's collectible lines are getting a bit tired. Fancy Nancy is the new license from Disney and we have a solid line of dolls and accessories tied to this loved book series with a TV series that begins airing on Disney Junior TV in July. In our Disguise Halloween costume division, we are already up in sales and we expect sales to benefit from strong licenses such as Blizzard's Overwatch video game, Incredibles 2, Transformers, and others. C'est Moi is building nicely at retail. We see this line as a long-term opportunity in high growth,…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions]. And our first question comes from Steph Wissink from Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Steph Wissink

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead

Thanks, good morning everybody.

Stephen Berman

Chairman

Good morning, Steph. Just a few questions, Stephen. I’m very encouraged to see some of the scale stability given the backdrop, so I’m curious if you can just give us an update on if you're fully reserved now for Toys 'R' Us, should we expect any future write-offs related to that account and then how are you managing into some of the markets that may not be part of the liquidation and still delivering good to Toys 'R' Us or you pulling back in those markets as well?

Brent Novak

Chief Financial Officer

Hi Steph, this is Brent. So just on the whether we’re fully reserved, yes for Toys 'R' Us, we are fully reserved.

Stephen Berman

Chairman

And then on the other part with regards to Toys 'R' Us in other territories, we're just taking a very cautious outlook of what's occurring right now in Canada and then parts of the EMEA and in Asia. So at this time we haven't shipped any of the Toys 'R' Us around the world until we have a better understanding of where the footprint is of who's investing and the financial backing.

Steph Wissink

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead

Okay, that's very helpful. Then on SG&A or maybe the G&A side, it over indexes in the first half of the year just given the sales scale but how should we think about SG&A as a rate of sales for the full-year, how much variability and flexibility do you have to kind of manage into some of the headwinds in sales with some flex in the fixed cost structure?

Brent Novak

Chief Financial Officer

SG&A in terms of as a percentage of sales, I would think would be relatively consistent, in terms of variability it doesn't vary tremendously with the change in sales. I think the variability comes in -- more in the gross margin line from a royalty expense and obviously direct material cost expense standpoint.

Steph Wissink

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead

Okay, Brent, as a guide for 2018 in total should we look at the rate of dollars by quarter being pretty consistent, how should we think about SG&A dollars by quarter throughout the year?

Brent Novak

Chief Financial Officer

I would look at just kind of historical trends as at least a benchmark. You see it's kind of trended up if you're going back to 2014, 2015, 2016, a lot of that especially when you look at 2016 -- or I mean, I'm sorry 2017 was impacted by the initial charges that we had to take for Toys 'R' Us, and clearly in 2018 the first quarter was impacted by the bad debt charge we had to take for Toys 'R' Us. But we're not expecting those to obviously continue in the future we're fully reserved. So I would think that that percentage as a percent of sales will go back to more historical norms.

Steph Wissink

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead

Okay, very helpful. And then last question Stephen on C'est Moi. I can sense your enthusiasm around that can you just remind us where the distribution is currently, online which retail partners and how we should think about the expansion of that brand over the next two years. Thank you.

Stephen Berman

Chairman

So first we are excited about C'est Moi in addition to our MorfBoard brand. But specifically on C'est Moi is that target.com and is launched at the target retail. For the first half of the year as well as cestmoi.com and the expansion into other retailers will happen in the second half of this year and going through the first half of 2019. Those retailers will be announced shortly because they have different programs and plans that will be launched during the fall.

Operator

Operator

And the question comes from Gerrick Johnson from BMO. Please go ahead.

Gerrick Johnson

Analyst · BMO. Please go ahead

Hey, good morning. I wanted to ask C'est Moi until Steph brought it up, but how are you sizing that business, what's the target for that business, how should we think about, how big you're planning that to be?

Stephen Berman

Chairman

I think for the early-on stages it's a growth initiative and it's right now it's not material to the company in sales. But if you take a look for the next two to three year strategy plan for it we will have a much bigger impact as it grows it’s a significant area of growth for the company but it's a much longer process to get to that level.

Gerrick Johnson

Analyst · BMO. Please go ahead

Okay, thank you for that. Hey, nice to see an increase in POS retail sales but as you know there are a lot of moving parts there. So I was wondering if you could sort of adjust for Toys 'R' Us as well as the Easter shift and give us sort of the underlying retail POS that you saw and on a flip side as well you probably brought some advertising expense into the first quarter from the second quarter so that shift as well those two shifts for Easter. Thank you.

Stephen Berman

Chairman

Yes, correct. So when Easter comes earlier in the -- for us -- for everybody in the quarter obviously the advertising impact is much more first quarter than second quarter. The sales in first quarter as Easter was in the early part of April really happens for us as an Applebee business in December and January because Chinese New Year's comes up in the late part of January early February then it becomes the domestic part of shipments. So we've already planned for that as it happens periodically that Easter is in March or April. So the shift wasn't too dramatic for us it was pretty much well known early on where we'd be. What was really positive was the sell-throughs that occurred during the first quarter which happened across the board with major retailers and also alternative channel distribution. So our online sales were up due to sell-throughs and our alternative distribution picked up during the quarter which helped our sell-throughs through as well. On the impact of Toys 'R' Us I don't have that information currently of what the sell-throughs were or were not without Toys 'R' Us but the liquidation didn't occur I think until the 22nd of March so as normal sales sell-through period up until that period of time. So I don't have that number off the top my hand and we could do a call afterward if need be.

Gerrick Johnson

Analyst · BMO. Please go ahead

Okay, I don’t know if we got to the retail impact because Easter was what April 1 and it was April 16 the year before. So clearly a lot of that retail occurred in March, so that's just what I was getting at with the retail shift would've been if you sort of have an Easter-over-Easter comparison.

Stephen Berman

Chairman

Gerry, I’ve to get back to the make sure I've the correct information I don’t have that readily available.

Gerrick Johnson

Analyst · BMO. Please go ahead

Okay, can I ask one more question?

Stephen Berman

Chairman

Sure.

Gerrick Johnson

Analyst · BMO. Please go ahead

All right. You had a big inventory drop, were there any write-downs there for Toys 'R' Us perhaps and I thought it would been a little bit higher to have more incredible coming?

Stephen Berman

Chairman

Yes, no write-downs for Toys 'R' Us.

Operator

Operator

And your next question comes from Drew Crum from Stifel. Please go ahead.

Drew Crum

Analyst · Stifel. Please go ahead

Okay, thanks. Good morning everyone. So just on clarify that the guidance for 2018 I think the last update you suggested modest sales growth was achievable now you're saying improved financials, are you abandoning the sales guide or the sales growth for 2018 given the Toys 'R' Us situation?

Stephen Berman

Chairman

Drew, yes. Due to Toys 'R' Us liquidation and not sure the amount of business will pick up through other retailers as well as Toys 'R' Us reacted well in Canada and Asia and they turn into being a healthy retailer. We just don't know where the sales would pick up. So we have abandoned that.

Drew Crum

Analyst · Stifel. Please go ahead

Okay, okay fair enough. Got it, okay. And then with online growing and Toys 'R' Us liquidating, can you talk about the economics between the two and whether or not that margin dilutive to your business going forward?

Stephen Berman

Chairman

So as online sales are growing rapidly, the margin impact will be very similar to just the brick-and-mortar sale. What occurs when we’re selling online, there's just different loads that are taken by each individual online retailer. So either a specific direct online retailer has a different loads than brick-and-mortar has on their online division, so we coming for that and no surprises to them.

Drew Crum

Analyst · Stifel. Please go ahead

Okay. And then any not looking for numbers but just expectations on the Incredibles 2, how it compares to some of the other large licenses you have had in the past and the kind of tie into that, what are your expectations for royalty expense as a percentage of revenue, if you exclude the Toys 'R' Us impact?

Stephen Berman

Chairman

I will answer the first question. I'll answer the first question I will turn the royalty expense over to Brent. We are excited and as well as retailers are excited with Incredibles 2, it’s really a family kid orientated movie and I don’t know if you've seen the trailers but it's a fun movie. So our expectations internally are modest but we believe it's going to be extremely strong but we always take a conservative approach. The sell-in that we are seeing around the world is extremely strong and what we've seen based off of Frozen, what we have seen even with Cars and Moana the movie when it does well, it's nice when we launch the product but really the success is when the streaming and DVD gets launched, is where we have the legs to the actual content. So we're excited for the movie to be launched in June and then for the second half of the year when the streaming and DVD gets launched, that will get a larger kick it's a really terrific fun filled family movie. So we're really excited and it really in a sense it’s a terrific movie as well a lot of merchandise that's really applicable to the movie.

Brent Novak

Chief Financial Officer

Yes from a royalty anytime, we secure license such as the Incredibles 2, you're going to have a slightly higher royalty rate compared to let’s say a blended average that you’re seeing on the P&L right now.

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from Gerrick Johnson from BMO. Please go ahead.

Gerrick Johnson

Analyst · BMO. Please go ahead

Hey, come back.

Stephen Berman

Chairman

Hi, Gerrick.

Gerrick Johnson

Analyst · BMO. Please go ahead

So you definitely have to plan a little bit on what you think you're going to shift to other retailers in the back half and you do have, can you share with us an idea of what percent of those Toys 'R' Us U.S. sales that are going away that you will make up elsewhere?

Stephen Berman

Chairman

We don't break out sales by individual retailers but we will tell you that we've had retailers out here Spring 2018 International Toy Fair. We've been prior to the Toys 'R' Us confirming the liquidation we've been out at all retailers major and alternative channels. So I don't have a clear fix of how much will be picked up but it's actually it's an ongoing process that our sales teams around the world are doing and we also did plan for the Canadian side of Toys 'R' Us to be back and help mode as well as international. So we will also have additional sales that we didn't plan to Toys 'R' Us where they are healthy.

Gerrick Johnson

Analyst · BMO. Please go ahead

So at what point we have to know definitively so that you can plan for your manufacturing, I guess your manufacture partners will lead a firm plan at some point?

Stephen Berman

Chairman

It will go based off customer and based off of category and areas of business. So for example in our girls area of business, there is different as we see Squish-Dee-Lish, there is different processes needing for manufacturing. So we’re working with our factories weekly of what's needed. So for instance, we had a lot of exclusive items that were done for Toys 'R' Us that many of our retailers are looking to get those immediately. So we are on a ongoing process of working with our retailers and our factories to make sure that we could facilitate what's needed both for the retailers and the factories and for JAKKS.

Stephen Berman

Chairman

Thank you. Well ladies and gentlemen thank you for the call today and there is no further questions and we look forward to speaking with you in the second quarter call. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen this concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.