Mark Mondello
Analyst · Stifel.
Good question. So let me break that up a little bit. I think that, as we look at our EMS business first half to second half, I think that we -- the first half, margins will be in the 2.3% range is what I would guess. And as I think about -- frame out the second half for you, I think we probably pick up 20 to 30 basis points of margin, would be my guess. And the obvious question is Mark, why wouldn't you get better leverage and why wouldn't we see margins start bumping up against three points. I think the biggest reason is, is, we are being very disciplined around ROIC, not to suggest we are not paying attention to margins, but I really want to grow cash flow dollars over the next two, three years, as long as we have real ROIC returns with an appropriate gap between the real returns and our cost of capital. The organic business growth is the best growth we can have in the business, because it’s the least expensive. It doesn't come with a lot of complications that acquisitions do, and not to say we won't do acquisitions, because I think we will, but you're kind of on point with most of the growth for the back half of the year will be in high velocity, and again I think Forbes talked about it and I talked about it in my prepared statement, it will be around automotive, digital home, digital entertainment, and our high velocity margins historically have been in the 2% to 3% range, but because of the way we run that business and we manage working capital and asset utilization, that business ends up with real ROIC, north of 20%, and we also end up in that business, with terms and conditions that end up being very favorable to us. So I think again, as I think about this year, I'd manage the back half of the EMS business maybe 20 basis points higher than the first half, and then as we move to fiscal 2016, one of the things I talked about in September was, we came off a tough year last year. We talked about this year being a year where we optimized the business. My gut feel is, is that we have the business, I don't know, 70% or 80% optimized this year, and we will complete the optimization, not to say we ever get fully optimized, but as far as costs and overhead absorption, I think we will see the full benefit of that in 2016.