Earnings Labs

James Hardie Industries plc (JHX)

Q2 2014 Earnings Call· Thu, Nov 14, 2013

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Transcript

Louis Gries

Management

Okay. We'll get started. I appreciate everyone coming this morning. We're going to walk through this, just like we always do. I'm going to take care of a bit of an overview on the business. Russell will take care of the financials and then we'll go to Q&A. Investors and analysts first, and then if we have any media questions, at the end. Let's see here. Okay so most of you would have seen, we had a very good quarter. We posted largely on performance in the U.S. business. But really everything in the company ran very well in the second quarter. Markets are, for the most part, good. In fact, I should say they're good across the board, with the exception in Europe. Europe's still kind of flat but we're very small in Europe so it's not affected us as much. Looking at the middle row. I think the more important number is the half year. Most of you know we had a pretty good quarter last year, first quarter. And then second quarter last year wasn't very good. So the second quarter comp is partly so big based on the weak quarter we had last year. But if you put the 2 together, it's a very balanced kind of half-year for us, both years. So and you look at the improvement on this year over last year, and that's, I think, telling you what's happening in the business. Just a few points down below. Like I said, everything is running well and all the markets are in good shape. So things are kind of back to normal at Hardie. The -- I guess one of the big debates probably come up in question is how much is R&R up? So you'll see soundbites saying it's low-single-digit, it's high…

Russell Chenu

Management

Thank you, Louis, and good morning, everybody. So as Louis has explained, we had very favorable outcomes on sales volumes on local currency revenues, EBIT and EBIT margins in all of the major business units and that includes Europe. Even though Europe is pretty soft in terms of economic and construction activity, it's actually doing reasonably well for us at the moment just because we're relatively early in our startup phase. We've had some unfavorable movements but not all that material in the quarter in New Zealand, weather tightness just a $0.3 million charge this quarter, $4.9 million for the half-year. Because of the fall in the Aussie dollar, we had a $90.4 million correction or downturn in the asbestos liability in the first half. It was less than that in the quarter. And the depreciation of the Aussie dollar has had an adverse impact on the translation of the Asia Pac earnings. Cash flow, I think, was a real highlight for us. So far this year, $175.4 million of cash generation is a significant turnaround from last year. And we'll see that a bit more in the cash flow statement as to the causes of the difference. Our CapEx is up as you'd expect, given that we've announced capacity expansion projects. So a favorite of investment going into the Carole Park expansion and also the Fontana refurbishment. Dividends for the half-year totaled $163.6 million, which was paid in July at $0.37 per share. And that was on top of the $0.05 interim dividend or first half dividend last year. So giving a total distribution of $0.42 from FY '13 earnings, and the total payout was about $185 million. We've announced an $0.08 dividend today, which is an increase from $0.05 last year, for the first half. And we've also…

Simon Thackray - Nomura Securities Co. Ltd., Research Division

Management

Feels a little restrictive, but never mind.

Louis Gries

Management

You mean one at a time.

Simon Thackray - Nomura Securities Co. Ltd., Research Division

Management

One at a time. I got a -- I do have one question to ask. But before I do, I just want to formally acknowledge Russell for this final result and to thank him for all the help and assistance over the years, and we wish him the very best in all the endeavors after this. Russell, so thanks very much.

Russell Chenu

Management

Thank you, Simon.

Simon Thackray - Nomura Securities Co. Ltd., Research Division

Management

Quick question, Lou, just in terms of the public homebuilders. D.R. Horton came out with their Q4 yesterday or day before, I can't remember now, saying that the summer had been a bit disappointing relative to the first half. Just in terms of trajectory of sales, given you lag that cycle, I'm just interested in your views on whether this half, this quarter in particular, you've been a beneficiary of the very strong first half of the public homebuilders. And do you see it somewhat diminishing in terms of the trajectory or flattening out a little bit over the next half?

Louis Gries

Management

Yes. I mean, the market's increasing but it definitely tapered off. It spiked a bit in the first half of the year and it's tapered off, I guess, in the last 3 to 4 months. And we do lag anywhere from 3 to 6 months, so we'd still be enjoying the very strong growth that the homebuilders had in the first half. As far as our full year forecast, we're pretty confident that we've got that tapering off built into our forecast. So we don't expect the market to go the other way. I don't think any of the builders do either, it just slowed down the growth rate a little bit.

Michael John Ward - Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Research Division

Management

It's Michael Ward from CBA. You made some comments around Cemplank pricing, list pricing, floor pricing. Can you just elaborate on that?

Louis Gries

Management

Yes.

Michael John Ward - Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Research Division

Management

And what -- sorry, and pardon my ignorance, but what the effective difference between those 2 actually is?

Louis Gries

Management

The list price and the floor price? Yes. Well, certain customers would pay list price and then as you get into larger customers, they'd be paying closer to floor price. So basically, we feel like in some markets, our floor price got too low. And rather than move up the overall Cemplank price, we just kind of tightened the range between list and floor. We did that in Pacific Northwest, Colorado and Georgia, somewhat in Texas. So wasn't -- it wasn't an across the board. There was no price increase. It wasn't across the board. And again, it was just tightening of the range rather than pulling the whole market up.

Michael John Ward - Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Research Division

Management

Given the pricing you had in Cemplank, it was weaker through that downturn...

Louis Gries

Management

I think you just broke Sean's rule.

Michael John Ward - Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Research Division

Management

Oh, but it's...

Louis Gries

Management

I'm going to allow it. I'm going to allow it actually.

Michael John Ward - Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Research Division

Management

Do you think that will be the one that will be first to move ahead of sort of standard board?

Louis Gries

Management

Sorry, sorry, I missed the question. So which would be the first to move?

Michael John Ward - Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Research Division

Management

Well, do you think there's more room to move now in Cemplank pricing than there is on standard board pricing?

Louis Gries

Management

Yes. I mean, that's what we've been trying to do. We've been trying to tighten the range between the commodity fiber cement, which Cemplank is one of them, and of course, our competitors are the rest and where Hardie's at. Now we haven't pulled Hardie down, so we pulled the floor up on Cemplank. I think, like all building materials, when we're -- you're in an increasing demand market, most people that sell on price do try and pull their numbers up. So I think the competition has come up off their floor levels and Cemplank comes off its floor levels in some markets, and Hardie stayed about the same. So the gap has tightened a little bit. Jason Harley Steed - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: Hello. Jason Steed, JP Morgan. Just a question on PDG, I guess you -- I know you stopped providing numbers on that front for reasons you explained at the time. But obviously, you're making some pretty good progress on penetration. The question is, do you see that accelerating as -- I think you said in September, you've dealt with the SmartSide risk. How do you see that moving quarter over the next 2 years as you think of 35-90, I guess?

Louis Gries

Management

Yes. I definitely think we're going to be in a accelerating growth mode against the index. And part of that is, as the market gets further in a downturn, the obsession with price gets less and less. And thinking about features in a home get more, so we'll have a more favorable market. They'll be more receptive to some of the premium kind of offerings we have. And then the other thing is, our organization is just running better. So I think we did a great job going from a boom market to downturn. And I think we ran well in the downturn for a while. But near the end, I think we got a bit confused. And we had a lot of trouble transitioning to an increasing market out of that really dead market. So we just weren't that effective. If you remember, one of the big things we did in the downturn is reallocate a lot of field resources from new construction to repair and model. And that's -- they really helped us in the downturn. And we are just slower to get those resources kind of retrained and regeared toward new construction. I think we're kind of 40% of the way there now. And I think it's developing pretty rapidly now. So I do think we'll grow at a much -- at a higher rate than we have this year and next year, so yes. Jason Harley Steed - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: Any rough sense of it, at just the half year, rough sense of the number or in terms of PDG at the half year?

Louis Gries

Management

I -- we -- I didn't even calculate it. I haven't calculated. I think it will come in somewhere between 6 and 10 for the year. But we didn't calculate it for the half year. The -- what's more important to me now, when we're looking at that, because I don't like -- I don't -- I like the calculation but I don't like the input on R&R. Because we're so big in R&R and it's an inexact input. So what we do is we look at us and then we look at others. And when you look at the others this year, you can definitely see, even though the market's good, vinyl's having trouble growing. So vinyl's giving up business, so who are they giving it up to? Are they giving it up to fiber cement to wood, to stucco? So we kind of look at that as well. So as you guys would point it out, there are couple of quarters, at least a couple of quarters where LP comps were better than our comps. So theoretically, what vinyl was giving up, LP was getting more of than we were. And I think over the last 2 or 3 quarters, we're kind of showing that, that trend is changing.

Andrew Geoffrey Scott - CIMB Research

Management

Lou, it's Andrew Scott, CIMB. Just a quick one for me. I think you spoke last period and on the U.S. tour about the change in distributor you had, I think, it was in the Texas market, and that was a pretty bit of a drag on the first quarter and bit of a burst in this quarter. I'm just wondering if you can give us some quantification around how much that actually helped this quarter.

Louis Gries

Management

Yes. Well, like I said, look at the 2 quarters together. So anyone trying to figure out where we're at, don't look at the quarters, look at the half. That's the best thing to do. Because we did have that -- Texas is a big market for us and we had a total swap-out of distribution. So you had inventories going down and then inventories being rebuilt, and that didn't all happen in the same quarter. But in addition to that, we just had a lot tougher comp in the first quarter than we did in the second quarter. So if you look at the half year, I think you're much better off. But that distribution change in Texas has worked well for us. We haven't lost any business. It's actually worked out fine. It's worked out well. I mean, we didn't proactively seek to change. But I think we took advantage of the opportunity. Sean O’Sullivan: We might go to questions from the phone now.

Operator

Operator

Your first question comes from the line of Emily Behncke of Deutsche Bank.

Emily Behncke - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division

Analyst

Just a -- my one question on EBIT margins. You've increased slightly your expectation for '14 to now be above 20%. I'm just wondering if we continue volume growth in the U.S. and continue PDG growth as you've just said, would you surely not expect margins to increase, given some operating leverage in the business?

Louis Gries

Management

Yes, I think -- yes, I think if you look at it over 2, 3 years, if things play out the way we think they will, I mean in a good market, business running well, our struggle with that 20% to 25% range is probably behind us. Next year, I would think it'd be a lot easier to just naturally fall in that range. But again, what we're trying to balance is the growth with the returns. And for a lot of years, we were getting both very easily. In the downturn, we had to work hard to get the return and we shifted the emphasis to R&R to kind of protect our market share and grow whatever market share we could in a bad market. And now we come out of the downturn and we're well positioned in R&R, where we engage new construction. We got our pricing fixed up, so our manufacturing plants are running well. We'll be starting up a lot of manufacturing plants. So theoretically, there'll be a little bit of cost blip as you start those plants up. We started one up this year at Waxahachie, a production line. But yes, we would think the concerns about our 20% to 25% range, both internally and externally, will probably go away if things play out the way we think they will.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of James Rutledge of Morgan Stanley.

James Rutledge - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Analyst

I was just wondering about the outlook for the spend on R&D and SG&A over the next 12 to 18 months and just noticed that the R&D number, at least in this quarter, seems to have come off the fairway.

Louis Gries

Management

R&D's numbers are down. Our headcount in R&D is about the same. So we haven't intentionally kind of restricted R&D. But there was one major project we finished up early last year, so we're not -- you're not seeing spending on that anymore. It's all expensed now. So I think R&D will come back to previous levels kind of naturally. We're not going to race to get it back up, but we're not trying to hold it down either. And when I say it's going to get back to previous levels, that's more on an absolute dollars than any percentage, so we don't see the percent R&D growing with the business. We see the spend in R&D being very similar to what it's been. And if we see a need for kind of a new technology that has a large investment, obviously, we'll flag that for you before we get too far into it. SG&A -- we grew SG&A ahead of volume and now, volume is definitely growing faster than SG&A. There is -- there are a few things we want to do in the business, which are going to require more SG&A. And we're just starting to think about how and at what rate to put that stuff in the business. So I think you will see higher SG&A next year. But on a percent term, probably not higher. In other words, the volume would be faster than the SGA growth -- SG&A growth.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Liam Farlow of Macquarie Bank.

Liam Farlow - Macquarie Research

Analyst

Yes. I had a follow-up. Just a follow-up question regarding that Texas distributor. I recall that shift away was during primarily -- due to the refusal to solely carry high-end [ph] product. How is that strategy playing out with other distributors? And how do you think that's contributing to your volume growth and sales at this juncture?

Louis Gries

Management

Yes. I think the -- we kind of took on a major initiative to upgrade our channel strategy about 2 years ago now. And we started implementing the game plans about a year ago, maybe less than a year ago. And I do think we've gotten better, because right through this -- right through the project, you could see our people picking up on the fact that we're going to change our approach with the channel. So even before we had the game plans developed, we had -- we put more resources in the channel, and we had kind of started relating to the channel a little bit differently. So I think the alignment is better. I think the distribution strategy, which is separate from the dealer strategy, distribution strategy, which is in the process -- well in their process of being rolled out, is favorable. It increases alignment between our distributors and the company, which has been a problem in the past. So I think that's a positive trend. As far as what I see in this year's numbers, from that, it would be hard to guess how much impact it's had. But I'd say it's positive now. Again, all the changes we've made in that distribution program weren't favorable and that's favorable for the distributor. They were mostly favorable for the distributor, but there were a few things we wanted to increase alignment and that's what kind of led to the breakup in Texas. We haven't had that specific issue outside of Texas.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Johnston of CLSA.

Andrew Johnston - CLSA Limited, Research Division

Analyst

Louis, you talked a bit about the difference between pricing on interior and exterior products. Can you just talk about where the growth of those 2 products or the comparison of growth between those -- between the 2 product segments?

Louis Gries

Management

Yes. The exteriors is growing much faster than interiors. So that's part of the mix equation. By the way, I'm glad the question came up because I didn't mention it earlier. Interiors is growing. It's growing with the market. It's not growing market share right now. And exteriors is growing with the market, which is more new construction than interiors. So interiors has a very high mix of -- a higher mix of repair remodel than exterior. So just naturally, the index -- the growth index for exterior is higher than for interior. And then we're growing market share in exterior, so we're getting that bump as well. Yes, so we don't actually give you the -- I think what we've given you is rules of thumb in the past that interiors is about 25% of business. It got bigger during the downturn and it will get smaller during the recovery. So it'll probably go from 25% to 20% here in the next 2, 3 years is our guess. So it's still growing, just not the same rate.

Andrew Johnston - CLSA Limited, Research Division

Analyst

And you're not picking up the same this year [ph]. I mean, during the site visit, you mentioned some threats from a new category, any particular change, are you competing better against it or how do you think [indiscernible]?

Louis Gries

Management

The comment was in September. I think we covered in the September tour that the use of cement boards behind tiles has flattened out and started declining very slightly, okay? And this is driven by this substitution by lighter-weight, easier-to-use materials, mainly in commercial, but now creeping into residential as well. We don't have a change in strategy for HardieBacker right now. We are doing a review of our strategy in HardieBacker. I doubt if we're going to have any big shift. It's just a matter if we get in to a few different types of SKUs or not, is probably going to be the outcome of that strategy. It's a very good business for us. Good returns, very, very good money. We're leading backerboard. We continue to grow share in our target channel. We sell at huge premiums to what other backerboard sells. Our retailers sell at huge premiums so it's -- there's a lot of value creation both for us and for the channel with our backerboards. So there's no concern about decline in our backerboard business. It just -- it's not growing as fast as it had in the past.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Matthew McNee of Goldman Sachs.

Matthew McNee - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst

Louis, just a question on that price. No matter which way you cut it, you got nearly 4% year-on-year price increase. Just trying to understand how much of that was mix shift between things like Cemplank Prevail versus the more premium products. So I think previously, Cemplank Prevail was around about 20% of your board or siding volumes. Can you give us an update on where that's moved to? And also, is color -- are we starting to see a little bit more color or more boards sold as color than a year ago?

Louis Gries

Management

Yes, the reason we were up that kind of 4% is because everything was going in the right direction. So color was up. Cemplank, relative to Hardie, wasn't growing anymore. So Hardie was holding its position or growing its position in some markets, the Hardie prime boards. We had Trim increases relative to the rest of the mix. HardieBacker growing slower than -- our interior products growing slower than exterior parts helps you on mix pricing, so it was multifamily. Bid [ph] pricing has come up some. So it's just kind of a bunch of little moves that added up to 4%. And then of course, we had the HardieBacker price increase.

Matthew McNee - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst

But you still haven't seen a big shift in that percentage that's Prevail and Cemplank. That's still about the same as the percentage?

Louis Gries

Management

Yes, it's -- I'd say the way you describe it now, it's running flat right now.

Operator

Operator

You have a follow-up question from the line of Emily Behncke of Deutsche Bank.

Emily Behncke - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division

Analyst

I just wondered if we could get some sense as to CapEx expectations for FY '14 and FY '15 in light of the capacity expansions announced today?

Louis Gries

Management

Yes. I think we've kind of reviewed that recently. We do have a lot of capacity projects we're working on. So if the market demand runs faster than our forecast, we will pull a few things forward. But right now, we're fairly comfortable with our comments around $150 million a year. Now we won't -- I don't think we'll get there this year. So kind of whatever we don't spend this year kind of spills over. But $150 million a year is kind of what we're thinking. If market demand is better than forecasted, we will pull some projects forward. We have a lot of projects we're working on. We've rebuilt that capability in the company, and we're just kind of paranoid if -- when you looked at that earlier slide of the volume growth of the business, you can see housing starts came down pretty quick relative to how they're coming back. And oddly enough, that's our preference. But if it did, if that housing starts started ramping quicker, we'd have to bring on more capacity forward. So we're actually trying to get the time to build down on the future projects beyond Cleburne and Plant City. And that would obviously pull CapEx forward, if we did that.

Emily Behncke - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division

Analyst

Okay. And can I have one more question, really quickly?

Louis Gries

Management

Yes.

Emily Behncke - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division

Analyst

Just the higher payout ratio, the 50% to 70%, is that going to impact in any way any potential return if you don't complete the buyback?

Louis Gries

Management

Yes. I think we're seeing ordinary separate from the other returns. So -- and then we're seeing buybacks and maybe specials tied together. So if we're -- if we don't do as well with buybacks as we intended, then we'll turn that money into a special. But the ordinary kind of stands on its own. Any other questions in the room? Yes?

Operator

Operator

You have one final question from the line of Stephen Johnson from the Australian Associated Press.

Stephen Johnson

Analyst

Just 2 questions. The first one about the Australian housing market now, in your notes you're saying while residential building is picking up, earnings performance is only likely to be slightly improved compared to the previous period in 2012. Why is it the case for the Australian housing market?

Louis Gries

Management

Yes. I think the headline number for the housing market in Australia is up. So it's up to a good level, 155,000 starts is the forecast. So that's a good level in Australia. There's been a little bit of a shift that affects our business. And that's, I think, the detached housing is up 3% or 4% and medium density is up like 28%. We don't participate in the medium density near to the same degree as we do in detached. And the other thing is the -- what we call R&R in the U.S. is flat to slightly down right now in Australia. That's kind of unexplainable to me, but we've always used the same market information for that. So it is showing a decline. So I'm not concerned about the Australian market. It looks to me like it's going to be a good market for us. I think what that guidance in our group outlook is more about, well, based on the forecasts that are out there, we had a very big first half and we might not have as big a second half. I -- that's how I'd read that comment.

Stephen Johnson

Analyst

And just a follow-up about asbestos. Just looking through accounting, Russell did touch on this. The weakening Australian dollar since the middle of year has affected your asbestos liabilities. So it has -- it's now a $90 million in front [ph]. Will you just be able to explain how the falling Australian dollar is -- whether it's put up or down your asbestos liabilities?

Louis Gries

Management

Falling Australian dollar decreases our liability in U.S. dollars terms. So the 11% decrease in the Australian dollar is -- actually, that's not a good indication. Because it's about a 7% decrease compared with the 31st of March through the 30th of September, which are the relevant dates, and that's what's led to the decline of USD 90 million in the value of the liability. Is that clear?

Stephen Johnson

Analyst

Okay, so that means you'll be paying $90 million less than what you would have been otherwise?

Louis Gries

Management

Our payments for asbestos, in terms of James Hardie, are tied to our cash flow. So we pay up to 35% of James Hardie's annual net operating cash flow to the asbestos fund. And we record the liability that the fund's actuaries arrive at on an annual basis, so the 2 things are disconnected. I -- there's no guarantee that what Hardie contributes is going to satisfy the liability, because our liability for contributions is tied to the success of the company.

Stephen Johnson

Analyst

And you mentioned earlier, Russell, about how there are increasing cases of mesothelioma and you'll see more cases of payout for. Would you be able to elaborate on what you said earlier?

Russell Chenu

Management

Well, mesothelioma is the most expensive of the asbestos disease types to -- in terms of compensation. The fund is seeing an increase in the inflow of claims, and almost all of the increase in claims appears to be mesothelioma disease rather than the other types of disease. And that's increasing the amount of payments relative to both last year and relative to the actuarial assessment that was done at March 2013. Beyond that, I don't think I can elaborate too much because the -- a, it's a matter for the fund; and b, we don't -- as far as I'm aware, we don't fully understand exactly the causes of the increase in claims as of yet.

Operator

Operator

There are no further questions from the line.

Louis Gries

Management

Okay. Simon, do you have another?

Simon Thackray - Nomura Securities Co. Ltd., Research Division

Management

Yes. Just one quick follow-up question. You were talking about multifamily pricing, the space shuttle algorithmic model, whatever it is that you had for pricing that used to dive towards the bottom and caused so many headaches before. How has that pricing gone up? Is that a function of what's actually happening in the market? Or is it something you fine-tune in terms of pricing mechanism?

Louis Gries

Management

I -- yes, I think it's a combination of both, but we're as big a part of the market as we are, obviously when we change our model, that's likely to have an impact on what the market's going to do. So we did change the model a little bit on the floor pricing, so that was part of it. And then like I said, I think building material companies that sell on a commodity price basis, they're just used to going up in price when they're utilization is going up. So we haven't changed our percent of the category. So as we've grown with the increased demand, our competitors have grown as well. So they would be getting closer to their utilization -- target utilizations, so that I think their pricing would go up naturally.

Simon Thackray - Nomura Securities Co. Ltd., Research Division

Management

Right. So mark -- broad market base pricing is going up.

Louis Gries

Management

Yes. Any other second questions in the room? Okay. Thank you very much. I appreciate it.