Earnings Labs

James Hardie Industries plc (JHX)

Q3 2019 Earnings Call· Tue, Feb 5, 2019

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Transcript

Jack Truong

Operator

Let me first begin by saying that I'm honored to serve as the CEO of James Hardie and to lead its more than 5,000 employees worldwide into the future. I want to thank the Board for their trust in me to lead this incredible company. I would also like to take the opportunity to thank Louis Gries for his vision and leadership during the past 14 years as James Hardie’s, CEO. I'm grateful for the very strong foundation that he had built. This is a company with global presence with great products and great people. And a company that had consistently delivers strong operational and financial results over the long period of time. However, more recently Louis had been very clear with you that he felt our North American business have not been performing to its expectation and to its potential. I agree with Louis 100% on this point. But just to be clear though, and to level set the baseline, during the past two years our North American business has been growing and delivering just about at the market rate in an EBIT range of 23% to 24%. Despite the significant headwinds in input cost and freight in more than a decade. While this performance on the surface may look good, but we at James Hardie are not satisfied with these results. And we know that our North American business can do better to high a performance level. And this is to deliver consistently the PDG of 6% growth in the range of -- on the high-end range of 20% to 25% EBIT. The good news here is that most of the issues that prevented us from delivering those results are internal. So today before we jump to the Q3 earnings call. I want to spend some time outlining…

Matt Marsh

Analyst

Good morning, everybody. And thanks, Jack. I'm going to take everyone through the financials, which will be a combination of slides for those of you who've been following us for a bit that I would normally have done as well as we're taken some of the financial slides that Louis would have had in his section and kind of combine them into a financial section. So you'll see those I think, Jason send a note around to some of the analysts today, just helping to map the presentation that we used to do to the new format so that you can see we didn't delete anything we just kind of moved stuff around as we were accommodating some of the changes as we go through transition here. Okay, so for the quarter, we had net sales of $586 million, they were up 18% primarily because of Fermacell. Fermacell added almost $79 million in the quarter excluding kind of on a pro forma basis, we'd have sales of 3%. Sales up in both North America and price up in North America as well we had higher volumes as Jack noted in Asia Pacific in all three countries. Gross profit of 192.2 million, up 5%, gross margin rate was down I'll talk about that more as we get into the segments. So the continuation of what we've been talking about throughout the year largely an input cost feature and higher freight cost. Adjusted net operating profit about $65.9 million, down 10% largely driven by the underlying businesses, margin rates being down that I'll go through as we get into the segments. For the nine months, net sales increased 23% or approximately $353 million to $1.881 billion. Obviously those are largely driven by the Fermacell business. Similar story in North America and Asia-Pacific,…

Q - Simon Thackray

Analyst

Thanks very much. Simon Thackray from CLSA. Just a question straight on PDG and volume growth. Given the 1% you said you did a positive print Jack in North America. So therefore the implication is system growth is either flat or down and I know you use a different measure to the way we can calculate it, which is not altogether helpful. But what was the system growth as you calculated it in that quarter to say that you had positive PDG?

Jack Truong

Operator

Simon, it's a good question. When I came into the business I look at the -- how we've been measuring relative to the market and it just seem that there's so much variation from month to month from quarter-to-quarter. And so, we're looking at our data now based on the rolling 12 months. So that we don't look at all the variations and not knowing which one is the signal which one is the noise. And so by doing this then we can really focus on what is our long-term strategy and how we build to execute based to deliver as supposed to react to those noise along the way. And we can see there is not real exact science, when you look at the markets versus how we ship and we look at over a three month period it’s just too much variation. So that's how for us -- it's important for us to look at this overall rolling 12 months versus the markets and measure ourselves accordingly.

Simon Thackray

Analyst

So when you say you got positive PDG and it was 1% volume growth. My question is, what do you think the underlying benchmark was for you to make that statement that you got positive PDG. The other way to ask the question is, what was the PDG? How much was PDG in the quarter.

Jack Truong

Operator

So we -- for example we look at in this case the rolling growth of our exterior business over the nine months, the first nine months of this fiscal year compared to the market and our exterior business for the first nine months grew a little more than 5% in volume and the market is roughly we believe within 3% and 5%. And so we maybe not beaten the market that much, but we're certainly comparing to the rolling 12 months a year ago we were negative, I think negative 2%. So if you look at that trend line it's not rising as fast as we'd like it to be, but it's certainly we're at that plus 1-ish PDG growth. And more important question is we need to be at 4% and then 6%. And so that means that when you look at the 12 month rolling trend like that, we real realize and know that if we could continue to do the same thing we've been doing, we're not going to get to where we need to be. And therefore as we looked more into -- went through the strategic plan and we look into more data of the markets our customers how we go to market and we realized that that we needed to transform to change our commercial approach because what we have been doing is really not what’s will be successful to capture the market going forward.

Simon Thackray

Analyst

That's very helpful. So when you target now 3% to 5% PDG for FY 2020, is that an exit rate, I mean, I'm just thinking to your comment, Matt, about guidance and your confidence on the fourth quarter you did $90 million adjusted EBIT for this quarter to get to the numbers you got to do like $110 million EBIT for this fourth quarter. So you must be making certain assumptions about you PDG rate both in the current quarter based on the order book and then also are we going to ramp up to 3% to 5% or what should be PDG expectations as we exit FY 2019 and enter FY 2020?

Jack Truong

Operator

Well, we are aiming for the fiscal year 2020 to be at around 4%. So it mean that for the full year, yes. So we are -- Simon, we’re right now in the middle of transformation in our commercial approach as we speak. And the big part of this transformation, which we're excited about is that what we based on the market data and how we went to market for the past few years, we know what needed to be changed. And this is a step change on how we approach and how we deploy our resources. How we put the right skill set in driving the business in terms of how we organize to go after the end engineering wood businesses and how can we go after to convert to businesses from vinyl to fiber cement and wood to fiber cement. So we have made this change with structure the alignments to allow us to execute for that step change. And as with anything this is the strategy, the structure, the key now is put the right people with the right skill set in place to really make this happen. So one of the key thing I mentioned briefly in the strategy, there is that a substantial amount of our daily sales of daily business, monthly business coming from the base business, the business that we have already won, the business that we have already shipped, the business that we already have with the existing customers that we know very, very well. So the key there and we have not been focused on that group of that business because our -- the DNA of Hardie has always been let's go out and build new businesses. But we don't get to that critical mass, that business is very big. And so to take a different skill set to manage it and technology and enabling the data to allow us to manage correctly. And one of the key opportunities there in terms of step change is that once you have the customers base and the approach is more in terms of how do we serve our markets, our customer better to create more value through the current customers and take share, more share that we have with that customer that's where we will confidence that we can deliver the growth in that short-term. While we are investing in terms of creating a lot more business, but taking share away from vinyl, taking share away from wood and also engineer wood. And that would bring us that continuous basket of new business for two to three years from now

Simon Thackray

Analyst

And just to be clear Jack, when you talk about the base business and the customers, you're talking about the distributors and dealers in that channel?

Jack Truong

Operator

We discussed, that includes distributors, dealers, (inaudible) the customer that we already have businesses with.

Simon Thackray

Analyst

Got it, got it. Okay. That makes sense. So you're in a period of implementation to this ramp up, I understand. So if I'm reading that correctly, I'm assuming then that the fourth quarter PDG, to hit your numbers to get moved from $90 million to $110 million EBIT is market driven. It relies more on the market to deliver those numbers than it does on PDG ramping up?

Jack Truong

Operator

So it will be a combination of both Simon, I think since December when we made this transformation and at that point our team started to focus more on what we just talked about. And of course it is a journey and it's a change management as well. And we start to begin to see some of the effects of those changes. And what's really very encouraging is that as we -- and that was one of the key decision for us to create commercial organization that led by one leader that Sean Gadd to make sure that, we always have this great idea, great new strategic products and program somehow I just want to go and execute into the field they get diluted. And then it's just does not create that critical mass, it does not create the force multiplier that really move the needle in driving growth. So by having align under one leader then allow us to align and with clarity of direction and with clear the growth and responsibility and put the right skill set in place and that's the formula. And we just announced this morning that we have a new sales leader that will join the company next week, who will report to Sean Gadd and this person is an industry leader coming from Electrolux and he's -- he has demonstrated that, he was able to drive a lot of growth through become more customer -- creating customer value and gain share as well as with the existing customers as well as gaining new customers.

Peter Wilson

Analyst

Pete Wilson from Credit Suisse. Just to go back on to that base business erosion. Can you elaborate on exactly what's happening there and like who is it that’s coming back and stealing the share off to you? Is it engineered word, is it vinyl, what exactly is actually going on there with the base business erosion?

Jack Truong

Operator

Well it's a base business that’s very large now. And as we get to the certain market share that everybody will be going after everyone's business. So when we have business with a lot of dealers, customers, dealer distributors and dealers out there. If we don't focus on them, then someone can go behind us once we convert into the business and they can just take that away from us. So the first will be the close alternatives that will the one that can go after us to take our share away from our existing business customers. So it's very, very important that we pay very close attention to customer we currently have and make sure that we continue to create value with them, show them how they can grow their business make more money by selling more of our products. And that mean we have to engage with those customers on a more regular basis and proactively deliver the value to help them grow. And that take a different mindset, take different capability from what traditionally been the modus operandi for the commercial side for James Hardy that is just go out and convert more and more new accounts and then just assume that the rest will continue to be with us.

Peter Wilson

Analyst

Okay. And when you look at it, how long is this been going on? Is this just been a drag on growth last 12 to 24 months or is it something that you've recognized as being happening for a much longer period?

Jack Truong

Operator

I think it's hard to say how long it has been, but certainly through some of the analysis of data that we have gone through now through the strategic planning process. Certainly we -- that probably been have been at least for the last two years.

Peter Wilson

Analyst

Do you get a feeling for like how many points it’s been taking off the growth over that period?

Jack Truong

Operator

It's early to tell, but certainly when the base business is so large. For every point of erosion it can take a lot of new business growth to compensate for that erosion. But the converse is true is that for the big -- now that we have a big business with those big customers that we only have. If 1% share growth with those customers that we already have they can accelerate. Because it's a lot more easy and not more, but more easy and less expensive to grow with the existing customer rather than go out and gain new customers.

Peter Wilson

Analyst

Okay. And the cross sales in the North America business $100 million, where will that come through, is it going to be freight lighter [ph] waste. And what do you intend to do with it? So I assume it's not going to translate to a lower selling price or a step change to margin. So what do you intend to reinvest that back in.

Jack Truong

Operator

Well it's a lean transformation is really about making sure that -- let me take it one step back. We have 10 plants in North America all plants make fiber cement, all make using the same equipment nearly the same raw materials. Today, most of those plant, they operate very differently, and there is no standardized processes that allowed those plant to run through the same standard consistently day in and day out. So lean transformation is really about having a standard work that allow the operators and the supervisor on those production lines to run through these standards every day, so that we have a consistent way to manufacturing across our network. And the same thing that we have leader standard work for the managers and the plant managers and a management team to manage the plant accordingly, so that we have a more predictable result coming out and more -- and then reduce the variability. So that would allow us then to go after the waste reduction. And waste reduction here is the amount of board that leave our factory, our plants after going through all the production steps should have a higher yield. And as you probably would know that is a high percentage of our manufacturing costs is in raw materials. So if particularly in the years like we have the inflationary time with raw material like this having a reduction in waste or improving the yield coming out of each plant is quite substantial savings. And the second part is really about being able to drive the more production output through our sheet machine, which is a high intensive capital asset that would allow us to produce more of board with the existing and current cost structure. And so by doing that is we’re -- we will get savings. And the third point, please keep in mind, lean transformation is the idea behind is continuous improvement that is every day, every week our operations will continue to improve. Therefore we would lock in the gains as each day and each week and each year. So the saving is cumulative throughout the years so that's where the $100 million saving will come from in the next three years in North America.

Peter Wilson

Analyst

Okay. And the second part of that question, what you intend to do with that $100 million?

Jack Truong

Operator

Well, it's I think very, very important that first that we actually see that our North Star is to drive growth of our market at the high performance level and that mean that we have to invest in market development and a lot more in terms of creating awareness with our -- with the homeowners, the consumers and the builders. So a lot more marketing dollars that we need to invest in. And also for us to get to that 35/90 we need to invest in innovation until the customer inspire innovation and that would take resources and funds to do that. So we're going to -- as we gain those savings of course some of that would go into the investment for the future and some will go into our bottom line.

Lee Power

Analyst

Lee Power, Deutsche Bank. So Jack, just talking about how much you were putting back into the business, how much to the bottom line of that $100 million. Is there any -- can you give me any idea of is it like 50% back into the business, 50% to the bottom line.

Jack Truong

Operator

Lee, I think it’s hard to say because it really depends on as we look to drive investment for the future then we make those investment depends on the year. So it's hard to separate.

Lee Power

Analyst

And then maybe in terms of the $100 million over three years, how should we think about it. Is it $30 million a year or is it ramping up?

Jack Truong

Operator

No because it should ramp up because it's a continuous improvement that means the savings that have say for example we deliver savings in fiscal year 2020. We should expect that savings to continue into the next two or three years. And then on top of that, we will have additional savings. So it will build as time goes on.

Lee Power

Analyst

Okay. So shall we consider a $100 million target at the end of the third year.

Jack Truong

Operator

Yes, it is a cumulative target.

Lee Power

Analyst

Excellent, thank you. And then maybe just touching on PDG again, so do you think the lack of PDG is purely an internal thing, is it just an execution thing or is there something broader going on in the market?

Jack Truong

Operator

So really if I were to look at the pure definition of PDG is really what did we do in volume the last 12 months. What we can do and how are we going to deliver our volume and what we deliver on our volume in this next 12 months. The difference and then we’ll subtract that against what the market growth is. And that's really PDG and -- or the growth of our markets. For us is, yes. To get to that second base line we need to build new account new business, but at the same time the base that we currently have, we also -- can also grow through the current customer that we have. So when you have a much bigger base it doesn't take a lot of percentage growth through deliver a significant more significant amount of standard feet awards. So it's really about making sure that we can protect and grow the share that we currently have in our existing customers, while we invest for the future, so we have to do both.

Lee Power

Analyst

Okay. But you think it's internally Hardie slipping rather than [indiscernible] or some other competitor?

Jack Truong

Operator

That’s right. Because we have been focused a lot more and going out and getting new customers and new businesses and not really managing and proactively managing this big base of business that we currently have.

Lee Power

Analyst

Okay. And then just a final question, do you think it's a different skill set going out and winning work versus managing your -- and how you’re transition?

Jack Truong

Operator

Because the mindset for an account management is really about to push question that you're going to ask is that how am I as a representative of sales, representative for James Hardie can creating more value showing more of a value that this account B can make more money by really push the James Hardie product better than the close alternatives. And that is -- that take a different mindset to be able to network within the customer that we currently have from the CEO from the owners all the way through supply chain designers and so on and so forth to make that happen. So manage we currently have or as the other where you're going to go after vinyl. And on this side, the results can come pretty quickly. So whereas in the -- say the vinyl development is take the skill set what we call the hunter or the motivated by just going out and know where they likely target that will have the most chance for the sales push and to convert. And really use the different skill set to be able to win that business away from vinyl. And that's a mentality that the folks that are used to said no, and energized by the fact that they can convert big deals. So it's really two different mindset, two different type of time horizon when they see the results. So for the Hunter is that they can work for -- they can go out and trying to convert for many months, but they don’t see things developed until many months later. And that's a different mindset and different way for us to compensate and motivate those type of sales professional versus someone who manage the bigger account, bigger size of sales. But it take a different approach to create growth. Whereas the hunter on this side we have to motivate and reward those sales hunters in a different way, because the result may not come for 6 months or 12 months. But when they come will come in an avalanche of businesses.

Lee Power

Analyst

Okay thank you.

Sophie Spartalis

Analyst

Good morning, Jack. Sophie Spartalis from Merrill Lynch. Just in terms of the presentation today. You’ve put a lot of I guess longer term aspirational targets out there. How confident are you in terms of the macro assumptions holding up in order for you to achieve what you’ve put out there today. I know you spoken a lot about what you need to do internally, but obviously it's also depending on external factors. So can you just maybe talk through the visibility and the confidence you have in terms of both in Europe and also in the U.S. in terms of the housing situation?

Jack Truong

Operator

So Sophie good question, the way -- first of all the way that we approach our plan is really about what we can do within our control to drive business growth. Because our business model about taking share away from other categories in the marketplace. So I just want to make sure that that's what we built to do. So if that the market grow or market dropped it's just something that we have to navigate through. So relative to North American market, yes I think right now as we look at the market as we see today is look somewhat choppy and a little bit scary. But looking forward, to what are some of the macro -- underlying macro conditions, we're cautiously optimistic about the North American markets. Look I mean we get the -- yes last year the Fed raised rates four times. But the rates after four times they raised it is still a lot lower than what it was right before the global financial crisis in 2008 and they just two weeks ago they announced that they're not going to raise any rate in 2019. And then unemployment and in the U.S. right now is still at an all-time low. And I think the reality of the new baseline have set in that most consumer think that the rate yes, they raise four time are still low comparing to what it was and we are cautiously optimistic that the market will come back for North America. On the other hand, when we move over to Australia, we do see a slowdown. And in fact we see that in calendar year 2019 that the blended market for us can be down between 3% and 5%. And also we see in Europe, the housing markets is also roughly a year ago is about 2.5%, today based on the latest data that we see they’re forecasting next year is about 1.3% to 1.4%. But regardless of what the market is what our teams and within our company is really driving force how do we continue to grow above market.

Sophie Spartalis

Analyst

Okay. And then just a quick follow-up question, just in terms of that $100 million target, what are the costs associated with achieving that target?

Jack Truong

Operator

The cost?

Sophie Spartalis

Analyst

Yes, so you talked about having to re-motivate the troops, no doubt invest in the sales force. Are there any costs associated with that that are going to offset that $100 million?

Jack Truong

Operator

Those $100 million cost savings are net numbers.

Sophie Spartalis

Analyst

Thank you.

Andrew Martin

Analyst

Andrew Martin from Peak Investment Partners. I’m just wondering with you focusing on rebuilding the interior businesses, have you got any other innovative products on the drawing board that we're going to see soon.

Jack Truong

Operator

Absolutely. Can I have your name please?

Andrew Martin

Analyst

Andrew Martin.

Jack Truong

Operator

Andrew, absolutely. I during the past two months, I have had the chance now to meet with a lot of our R&D folks around the company, not only in the U.S. but also in Australia. We have a lot of very creative R&D folks within the company. There is a lot of very good ideas, a lot of different technologies that they have been working on. And so there's not a lack of new and great ideas coming from James Hardie. So what we during the past really about six to eight weeks, doing our strategic planning processes is that we put a process in place. So how do we then be able to filter through those different ideas in and still them into the potential technology that we should focus on, the critical few that we should focus on and fast track that to the marketplace to help deliver on our four -- on our two growth pillars and that would be the full exterior and then to make and reestablish the interior business as a growth business. So as I mentioned, the waterproof is really the industry first and only water proof board. And you should expect with the full exterior that we're going to put a lot more focus on how to deliver trim products that would work throughout the country, including the Pacific Northwest and also the Northeast. So that's an area that we can pay -- put a lot more focus resources to fast track and to accelerate. Because that’s a key part about full exterior strategies. And also at the top end of our markets in terms of going after wood with our Aspyre line. We just -- we will be launching a new product too at the industrial -- the International Builder Show this coming month is the artist and brand shingles. And it is a wood like shingles and that had the fiber cement properties that really help deliver the full house, the full exterior value for the homeowners and the builders. So there you should expect more and more relevant customer focus and inspire innovations coming from James Hardie.

Peter Steyn

Analyst

Morning, Jack, Matt. Peter Steyn from Macquarie. Just delving into the cost out very briefly again, Jack just curious whether this comes on top of the potential benefits of mega plants and some of the work that you've obviously done around the plants from a color point of view. So getting yourself ready for that so presumably this $100 million is on top of those benefits, those potential benefits in the medium term.

Jack Truong

Operator

Peter, it’s a good question, this is the lean costs are separate and savings are separate. What the Win With Color program is really about allow us to have -- to be able to have a better on the wall cost in the marketplace that would allow us to penetrate deeper within the market that is allow us to go for example in the vinyl markets, allow us to compete in the lower price points of those homes.

Peter Steyn

Analyst

And then obviously on top of mega plant benefits from a unit cost point of view in the longer term as well. So leading from that and some of the previous conversation around the reinvestment of the $100 million. What I'm curious about is whether you start thinking about product strategy in the medium to longer term and actually more aggressively driving price points that just change the dynamics of the competitive landscape from your perspective whether that be alternatives in the vinyl world other than color or perhaps something completely new. How are you guys thinking about that?

Jack Truong

Operator

That's an excellent question. It is a way for us now to really as we continue to invest more into our market and capability it will allow us to understand what it takes really about the four piece. What does it take besides products and how are we going to promote and what kind of price points and where we should focus the effort. And so that will be a one of the key areas that we'll be focusing in to drive more growth and certainly with the cost savings we can invest that in terms of the market and to create more awareness. And certainly we will be willing to do some tactical pricing for some strategic opportunities that would enhance and sustain our long-term growth.

Peter Steyn

Analyst

Sorry. And then I'm going to just go very quickly into some detail on some of the comments you made, tactical pricing should we read that as your pricing power as under pressure or you're just being very specific and you’d essentially still be targeting sort of circa 3% sort of headline price growth on a go forward basis.

Jack Truong

Operator

I'll start with that and then Matt will jump in. Is more surgical in terms of where because really the four piece is that placement where are we -- where do we want to grow more our share to what level and what margin for the long-term. And so it’s very surgical is not a broad base.

Matt Marsh

Analyst

Yes. There's no change in the full year guidance on 3% for price. We were a little bit higher than that. I think we're like 5% at the half and the quarter was a little bit softer. But some normal variation a little bit of surgical tactical pricing we like 3% for the year next year we're going to do another price increase we announced it in January goes into effect in April. Will be around 2% next year and we're pretty happy with overall where we're at with pricing.

Peter Steyn

Analyst

Perfect. And then very quick one on cost, labor costs, Matt, do we have to worry about that. You called it out probably for one of the first times in a while that how you guys thinking about labor costs.

Matt Marsh

Analyst

Yes, I'd say nothing to kind of worry about. Look there's no doubt labor is more expensive in the U.S. We tend to take our labor cost up in line with the market rates every year. So I'd say the year-on- year pressure for labor costs isn't significant. I don't think it'll really be a feature of what we're going to talk about in the future.

Jack Truong

Operator

Peter, I think one thing I’d like to add on to what, Matt was saying to is that going forward, our -- as we drive more of our cultural behavior is that is going from silo to cross functional and really about leveraging on the resources that we have is that our rate of growth in terms of headcount is always going to be around half of the growth rates of our sales growth. So that should be kind of the key modus operandi that Matt and I as well as the executive leadership teams have really been driving to make sure that we drive the cross functional behavior, the cross functional work to increase the productivity and results at the same time not adding a lot of costs and are not driving the value added.

Andrew Scott

Analyst

It's Andrew Scott from Morgan Stanley. Jack, just appreciate the color you gave us on the strategic slides there. I just want to understand, to what extent are these aspirational target. So you have put timeframes there. Are they targets that you're happy to sort of stand up in three years and be judged on or are they aspirational targets that we should be thinking about directionally that's where we're working towards?

Jack Truong

Operator

Look I mean we're about four months into the beginning of the strategic planning and then we just execute on the key part of the strategic planning. And then we start to put the right organization together with the right skill set and build the capability. Right now, what I would say is that it is something that we believe that that is within the capability of James Hardie assets. But in terms of when, how much we -- I would say that at the next Annual Investors Meeting in September that we can provide a lot more color, a lot more guidance for the three years that we show up here.

Andrew Scott

Analyst

Okay, thanks. And so expanding on that one of the things you mentioned was 8% to 12% top-line growth in Europe. And I think in your comments you mentioned fiber gypsum, you look for sort of 5% to 7%. So that's implying fiber cement itself coming through quite strongly. Can you talk about where we're at understanding the market what the product is going to be there that wins and how far advance that is?

Jack Truong

Operator

Yes. I mean we -- is our play for the European growth is really a lot more about PDG. Right now and frankly, Andrew, I would not be able to share with you in full detail yet, because we're in the process of really come out with some of the introduction for the next 12 months. But really -- our growth is really about taking advantage of the trend in Europe, Western Europe today, and that is one. There's a lack of affordable housing, two. There's a lack of skilled labor, three. And there's a big need to shift from traditional masonry construction to more lightweight, which will play into our strength. And by taking advantage of the fact that a lot of the products, the current product that we have here in Australia is a very relevant and fits more into the European markets and we based on that, our team have been doing a very good job at market understanding and really put that based on the market understand that they have built into a series of product concepts that we can modify some our existing product and be able to come up with new product that will meet those unmet needs in the marketplace today. It's quite exciting, but it's not something that we're ready to share with that yet. But in time that will happen.

Andrew Scott

Analyst

Thank you.

Matt Marsh

Analyst

It looks like we're done with the questions in the room, are there any questions on the phone?

Operator

Operator

Question comes from Brook Campbell-Crawford with JPMorgan.

Brook Campbell-Crawford

Analyst

And if you able to quantify the savings achieved to-date in APAC from these initiatives?

Matt Marsh

Analyst

Hey Brook, I think there was a little bit of a technical issue, would you mind repeating your question we only caught the last four-five words?

Brook Campbell-Crawford

Analyst

Yeah sure, Matt. So I was just asking about lean manufacturing in APAC we understand these initiatives have been underway for some time. Are you able to quantify the savings achieved to-date from lean manufacturing in Australia?

Matt Marsh

Analyst

Yes, we have. And I'd say they're proportional to the size of the network in Asia-Pacific to the North America network. And there is a phasing in aspect to the savings as well. So the lean approach in Asia-Pacific was really initiated in our Rosehill manufacturing facility several years back. And those savings and that approach then translated more recently to our Carole Park facility. And we're in the middle of now rolling that out -- we have rolled that out kind of our other two facilities in Cabuyao and in Penrose our Auckland facility. So much like we're going to do in North America where it was a phased in rollout in Asia Pacific, we'll also a phase in rollout in North America. We'll start with some subset of the plants for in the process of determining the exact number we think it will be less than half more than a third of the plant something like that three, four plants will go in phase 1. And then we'll have a phase 2 that follow. It's important that the site is ready for lean. So it requires both a leadership approach and a level of resourcing with the right types of resources on site in order to realize those benefits. And then there is obviously a pretty intensive training and reorientation for the management team on how we are asking them to run the day-to-day operation and measure the day-to-day operation differently. So that phasing approach that we took in Asia-Pacific will translate into the U.S. But to answer your question yes, we do have kind of sort of measurable savings in the Rosehill plant and Carole Park in Asia Pacific in fiscal 2019 and targets for fiscal 2020. I'd say they are proportional to the targets that we have set for the rollout and the implementation in the U.S.

Brook Campbell-Crawford

Analyst

Thanks for the detail, Matt. Just a question on North America, I got it there has been an adjustment to staffing levels at our plants in the U.S. just interested to understand the decision not depending by the drop of the decision ready for the plants U.S.?

Jack Truong

Operator

Yes. So, if I've understood your question to say that once we execute lean does that mean that we can delay the launching of new plant, is that your question?

Brook Campbell-Crawford

Analyst

No, sorry Jack. I was just asking around in the Tallahassee [ph] facility I got it has been changes to some of the staffing levels at that facility. Just keen to understand really the driver of that decision?

Matt Marsh

Analyst

Yes, like we have a continues process in the company where we're always evaluating our production hours and our volume requirements based on inventory levels and demand levels. And we did do some adjustments in the fourth quarter at various sites, one of which was Pulaski that impacted the employee population there. I'd say that's very much in line with kind of normal adjustments that we would be making based on supply and demand, and nothing kind of outside of that. So the reference that you're making for the action that we took in December was just in line with our normal production planning cycles.

Brook Campbell-Crawford

Analyst

Okay, thanks.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Ruchir Peita with Heavens [ph] and Partners.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Hi, Jack and Matt. Thanks for taking my question. Just had a quick question regarding the forward order book just building on some recent commentary from U.S. homebuilders suggesting that March 2019 quarter may be a little bit soft from a demand perspective. Just wondering if that's reflected in your forward order book at this stage given you've now seen the January trading data.

Matt Marsh

Analyst

Yes, we certainly think we've got a good line of sight to our what's our fourth quarter or the March ending period quarter market conditions and volume one of the reasons that we've changed and tightened our guidance range this quarter was it certainly looks like from the last couple of months that the way December and January have played out are slightly more positive than what we had as indicators when we were sitting here in November for how the trends in the market would look. Well we don't think it's going to be a robust market, we certainly think the pause that we saw in our third quarter doesn't continue into the fourth quarter and our fourth quarter guidance range and full year guidance range kind of accounts for that.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay, great. Thanks for that. I know Hardie doesn't like to talk about the impact of weather, but just again given commentary from some of the competitors in the region, was there any impact from weather in the third quarter?

Matt Marsh

Analyst

No.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay, perfect. Just to be explicitly clear on a question that was asked earlier just the calculation of the market index. I mean previously we’d use a three month lagged using U.S. housing data but now it appears that you are using a nine or twelve month rolling index. Is that right?

Matt Marsh

Analyst

That's correct.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Perfect, thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

We are showing no further questions on the phone.

Jack Truong

Operator

Well thank you all very much.

Matt Marsh

Analyst

Thanks everybody.