Earnings Labs

J.Jill, Inc. (JILL)

Q3 2021 Earnings Call· Mon, Dec 13, 2021

$13.28

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning. My name is Heidi [ph], and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the J.Jill's Third Quarter Fiscal 2021 Earnings Conference Call. On today's call are Claire Spofford, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Mark Webb, Executive President, Chief Financial and Operating Officer. [Operator Instructions] Before we begin, I need to remind you that certain comments made during these remarks may constitute forward-looking statements and are made pursuant to and within the meaning of the Safe Harbor provision of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 as amended. Such forward-looking statements are subject to both known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from such statements. Those risk and certainties are described in the press release in J.Jill SEC filings. The forward-looking statements made on this recording are as of December 13, 2021, and J.Jill does not undertake any obligation to update these forward-looking statements. Finally, J.Jill may refer to certain adjusted or non-GAAP financial measures during these remarks. A reconciliation schedule showing the GAAP versus non-GAAP financial measures are available in the press release issued December 13, 2021. If you do not have a copy of today's press release, you may obtain one by visiting the Investor Relations page of website jjill.com. I will now turn the call over to Claire.

Claire Spofford

Analyst

Thank you, and thanks to everyone joining us on the call for your continued interest in support of J.Jill. I’m going to start with an update on our business strategy and operations, and Mark will cover our financial results. Overall, we are pleased with our results in the third quarter. Revenues were up more than 29% and margins improved 1,000 basis points versus Q3 2020, driven by strong full price selling and reduced promotions. All of this is driving significant improvement in the bottom line even as we deal with the supply chain challenges that everyone is faced with this quarter. We are emerging from the turbulence of the past couple of years, a much better, more focused, and stronger company that is well-positioned for profitable growth moving forward. Our strength comes from our knowledge of our brand and our customer, women who are confident and purposeful in their choices. They value quality fabrications, and versatile clothing that allows them to move freely through their busy lives. We have a deep understanding of our customer and her wants and needs. We know how she likes to shop, where she likes to shop, and the kind of products that she likes to buy. And we know the kind of experience that she's looking for and expects from J. Jill, whether in-store or online. We're still in the early stages of our journey to realize the full potential of this brand and business, but we're making really significant progress and I'm proud of our J.Jill team, and their focus and commitment to deliver on our promise to our customer. Their efforts have been especially productive in the navigation of the current turbulence in supply chain. Supply chain disruption has influenced our business this quarter and has for virtually everyone in the retail…

Mark Webb

Analyst

Thank you, Claire, and good afternoon, everyone. We are pleased with performance in the third quarter as sales continued to recover versus 2020 and gross margin strength driven by strong full price acceptance and reduced overall promotional cadence continued in both channels. Total company comparable sales increased 42% year-over-year driven by the store channel. Total company sales were $152 million, up 29% versus Q3 2020 and down 9% compared to Q3 2019. Store sales were up over 94% versus Q3 2020 and down 12% compared to 2019 levels. While overall traffic levels remained below 2019, we are very encouraged by the continued recovery we saw in Q3 as customers returned and responded well to product assortments. Direct sales as a percentage of total sales were 45% in the quarter. Compared to the third quarter of fiscal 2020, direct sales were down 8% and compared to the third quarter of fiscal 2019 were down 5%. As Claire reviewed, direct sales were impacted by fewer markdown sales. While this negatively impact sales in the direct channel is a benefit to gross profit. Q3 total company gross profit was $104.5 million, up $36 million compared to Q3 2020 and down $2 million compared to Q3 2019. Q3 gross margin was 68.9%, up 1,000 basis points over Q3 2020 and up 450 basis points compared to Q3 2019, driven by better full price selling and reduced promotions. Q3 2021 gross margin included approximately 200 basis points of incremental freight charges. SG&A expenses were $86 million in the third quarter, compared to $92 million in the third quarter last year. Excluding one-time costs of $13 million incurred last year related to our debt restructuring, SG&A was up $7 million versus prior year driven by marketing investments, increased selling costs due to higher store operating hours…

Claire Spofford

Analyst

Thank you, Mark. I'm excited and confident in our progress against our strategy. The steps we're taking to evolve the business model and delight our customers are positioning us well for profitable growth as we move forward. I will now turn it back to the operator for Q&A.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] For our first question, we have Dana Telsey from Telsey Advisory Group. Dana, your line is open.

Dana Telsey

Analyst

Thank you. Congratulations, Claire and Mark on the terrific results for the nice improvement to margins everywhere and a nice progress. Couple of things. Can you talk a little bit about with the full price sales, any pricing adjustments that you're taking given inflation and rising cotton costs? And secondly, on the face headwinds, do you see them lingering into 2022? Thank you.

Claire Spofford

Analyst

Thanks, Dana. I'll take the first one. I'll let Mark address the second one. So, we are always evaluating our tickets and our retail to customers. We try to do it very strategically and surgically. So certainly, as we move into 2022, we are anticipating some retail ticket increases, but what we've done is taken a really sort of stepped back and taken that clear eyed look at the whole assortment and tried to think about where we think we can get more credit for the design and the make and the novelty in the product. And then also just rebranding ourselves again on a category by category basis, doing style out and just making sure that everything on a relative basis makes sense from a retail pricing standpoint. So yes, you will see some of those increases coming through next year, but we didn't just take up across the board approach to it, we tried to take a very sort of strategic approach based on where we think the consumer sees the value.

Mark Webb

Analyst

And Dana with respect to freight headwinds, I would characterize right now the situation does not appear to be getting worse, which is good. And as we look forward, our views as well as some of the industry views we're seeing out there is that the cost increases some of the issues with capacity constraints, et cetera are likely to continue through maybe Q1, even potentially through Q2. Our approach is to maintain the elevated level of focus on freight and managing receipts until we're certain that they've worked their way through the system. So likely to linger current forecasts are likely lingering through at least the first half of the year, and we're prepared to continue to manage it as we are.

Dana Telsey

Analyst

Got it. And then Claire as you think about the categories, whether it's the Pure Jill collection, the Wherever the Fit, what are you seeing in terms of those collections? And how do you think about e-commerce and the progress they are going forward? How do you get that to show increases, as hopefully it transitioned from being more of a markdown panel? Thank you.

Claire Spofford

Analyst

Thanks, Dana. Great question. So, we continue to see strength in newness as we've talked about last time on the call that continues to be a driver of business both in retail and on -- in the direct channel. We've seen strong response to knit woven's dresses were the biggest overperforming departments, this channel -- this quarter. Novelty continues to be really strong and was a big part of driving the performance in those categories. Footwear, and sleepwear , they're small for us, but they were also very strong. We did see a little bit of weakness in jackets and outerwear and accessories. Pure Jill, which has been strong for us all year, we had -- that was the one area we did see a little bit of degradation due to some factory issues, and we didn't have the products that we had hoped for. So, very focused piece there, but basically we're seeing -- still continue to see a lot of strength across the assortment. We see the opportunity as we talked about last quarter for real growth to come from Pure Jill and Fit in particular, but yes really pleased with the continued engagement with our newness across a lot of the assortment.

Dana Telsey

Analyst

Got it. Anything on e-commerce that we should be watching for going forward?

Claire Spofford

Analyst

No, we always are focusing on trying to improve our customer experience online. We're making some investments on -- in that front this year, and we are seeing this sort of full price customer response in both channels, which I mentioned in my remarks. So, we feel like we're very focused on driving growth on both channels, and e-commerce will certainly be a piece of that. It's just as you know, the direct channel has been where we've always moved through all our liquidation inventory. And so, that's why you saw that 8% decline on the top line in direct this quarter, but much better yield on the margin side.

Dana Telsey

Analyst

Got it. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

For our next question, we have Janet Kloppenburg from JJK Research Associates. Janet, your line is open.

Janet Kloppenburg

Analyst

Hi, everyone, and good evening. Congratulations on a nice quarter. I wanted to just touch base a little bit go -- talk a little bit about what Dana brought up about the freight headwinds. I’m just wondering, I think you said in the fourth quarter, it would be 200 to -- 250 to 300, if I'm right, Mark. That is a step up from the third quarter. How should we be thinking about next year? And then as you think about the price increases, Claire, do you think that between that and other programs, perhaps more full price selling that you'll be able to compensate for the freight headwinds going forward? I guess what I'm asking is the cadence of gross margin improvement outlook as we go forward incorporating the incremental frieght.

Mark Webb

Analyst

Let me help first with the -- with headwinds and the guidance in the cadence [multiple speakers].

Janet Kloppenburg

Analyst

Okay.

Mark Webb

Analyst

So, Janet, we started really in earnest making the decisions to expedite and we route certain shipments to air freight and started to execute on that during Q3. So not -- and the product that we were entering into the season may not have had the level of expediting needed or necessary to land up. So, as we were landing product through Q3, not all of that sold in Q3 or was expected to sell in Q3, that product will sell in Q4. So, there's just a sheer amount of expedited product that is sold and that's when you recognize the freight charge is [multiple speakers].

Janet Kloppenburg

Analyst

Right.

Mark Webb

Analyst

So you're probably getting and I'll be as helpful as I can be on the forward look, because Q4 as long as we're operating under the current situation is probably a more holistic quarter – quarter’s worth of impact from expedited goods [ph]. So, I think until they abate, that's probably a good starting point for any air freight impact as we move forward.

Janet Kloppenburg

Analyst

So, what does that mean about gross margin comparisons versus 2019? I think your third quarter was about 450 basis points higher on a 2-year basis. So, how should we be modeling as we move forward? Will those comparisons start to narrow?

Mark Webb

Analyst

Well, I think that the way -- so if we think about 2021, and then we'll be as helpful as we can be as we get out of the Q4 call and we wrap up 2021 fiscally. But in 2021, we've seen the real power of the operating model to generate significant gross margin rates at driven by full price and reduced promos and the industry and everything else that's supporting it along the way. Air freight, which we've guided into Q4 is an incremental pressure into Q4, the promotional cadence in our -- and our strategies will remain intact in Q4. And that our plans will be to maintain promotional levels below historical years promotional levels, but Q4 promotional levels, will -- it traditionally does and will likely tick up versus year-to-date promotional levels. So when thinking about that cadence across the year, and then as we get into next year, you have the freight associated issues, which we've talked about through potentially the first half of the year, again, just giving sort of industry prognostications on that at this point as well as our best estimates. And then we'll try to help with that, as we get further through the fourth quarter and talk about next year.

Janet Kloppenburg

Analyst

But as you’re starting to place orders now for delivery in the first quarter and even for the second quarter, could you say that your air freight is staying at the same level as it was for the third and the fourth quarter? Or do you see more ocean coming in?

Mark Webb

Analyst

I wouldn't guide to any major difference than where we are now. Now the upgrade is ocean itself, Janet, as you know, is elevated cost as well …

Janet Kloppenburg

Analyst

Yes.

Mark Webb

Analyst

… not quite the driver of an air -- an ocean versus air decision, but likely the mix will stay as it is as we continue. Every day we get better at it. So we would hope to try to, as we learn about the different routes and how -- what we can rely on and what we can't, maybe it gets nominally better, but I wouldn't guide any different mix at this point where we are.

Janet Kloppenburg

Analyst

Okay. And as you look forward with a combination of full price sell-through maybe for Claire and the higher ASPs that you get as a result of your targeted price increases. Could we expect that the momentum you're seeing in full price business can be sustained? Or how do you think we should think about that? And obviously, that has something to do with your inventory levels as well.

Claire Spofford

Analyst

Yes, yes. So certainly the inventory levels we continue, we have -- we continue to manage inventories more tightly. That's something, we -- it's part of our core strategy, and we're, yes -- and we’re -- obviously, that's part of the way we're operating the business and expect to continue to operate the business. I think the other piece, Janet is that, it all depends on the strength of the product. And our ability to ask our customer to or get our customer to pay full price for the product means product has to be great. I have a lot of confidence in our team's ability to continue to deliver great assortments and so that gives me confidence. I think there is a tipping point, as you well know, we can't raise prices indiscriminately to try to cover all ills in terms of what's going on in the world right now. But I think we're being as strategic as possible in a way we're looking at those ASPs and fully intend to support sort of the full price business model as much as we possibly can going forward.

Janet Kloppenburg

Analyst

And you might have thought about this, but given that lower clearance in the direct channel, should we expect that pressure to continue on the top line though?

Claire Spofford

Analyst

Yes, I think, we -- we've been getting cleaner and cleaner throughout the year. And so we, at some point will lap that and then it will be less of an impact. But certainly there will continue to be some pressure from that just from a top line standpoint. But as I said, the yield is proving to be much better.

Janet Kloppenburg

Analyst

Okay. Good luck. Thank you.

Mark Webb

Analyst

Thanks, Janet.

Operator

Operator

For our next question, we have Daniel Lupo from Jefferies. Daniel, your line is open.

Daniel Lupo

Analyst

Hey, thank you very much for hosting the call. Nice quarter. Can you maybe talk a little bit more kind of about your labor situation, what you're seeing across the footprint within your store base. And then also maybe a little bit more on the supply chain. Can you give some maybe details around some of the sourcing strategies that you have in place? And are you seeing any disruption from a labor standpoint within your supply chain? Thank you.

Claire Spofford

Analyst

Sure. So with regard to stores and the labor pressures, we have a pretty tenured store associate population. And as a result, they are more loyal, I guess, and less likely to take a job elsewhere for a couple dollars more an hour. I think, also, because they're tenured, they tend to be paid a little bit more than the average, probably store associates in some stores. So we haven't seen undue pressure in terms of wage increases in the stores. We obviously, as everybody have seen some in our distribution centers. So that's been something that we've certainly been dealing with. But overall, I think from a store associate standpoint, we've been in a really good position. Mark, I don’t know if you want to take the other one?

Mark Webb

Analyst

I would add that in terms of finding and staffing that has gotten marginally better in terms of the candidates for some of the areas that were more challenging, particularly around the distribution center in those areas. And then you had mentioned the supply chain, nothing really to call out with respect to supply chain, anything related to labor. I think as you know, back in Q2, there were some closures in countries of origin, which have since we opened. And that has been primarily the impacts to a labor base in those countries in terms of staffing the requirements that they would have to staff during some of those issues that they were having, but majority of them are reopened, most of them are operating back close to capacity. And having nothing really more to provide in terms of anything we're seeing underneath the labor side of that equation at this time.

Daniel Lupo

Analyst

Okay. That's helpful. I appreciate that. And then just last one for me. On the capital structure, maybe how do you think about the small term loan stuff coming due and the multiple tranches of debt you have in the capital structure right now?

Mark Webb

Analyst

Yes, the stuff is due in May fully intend and ready to pay back down when we need to. And then the overall stack right now with the priming term loan, we have a subordinated note and then our ABL is something I think as we continue to strengthen our foundation out of 2020 and really this year with the EBITDA performance, it's opportunity. Right now we're happy to have the debt in place that we do at this point, and looking forward to continue to optimize as we go forward.

Daniel Lupo

Analyst

Okay. Thanks for your time today. Nice quarter.

Mark Webb

Analyst

Right. Thanks.

Claire Spofford

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

We don't have any questions at this time. I'll turn the call over back to Claire Spofford for closing remarks.

Claire Spofford

Analyst

Thank you everyone for your time and attention this afternoon and appreciate the questions and the engagement. Have a great holiday season everyone.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you all for participating. You may now disconnect.