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Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)

Q4 2014 Earnings Call· Tue, Jan 20, 2015

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning. And welcome to Johnson & Johnson’s Fourth Quarter 2014 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be able to listen-only until the question-and-answer session of the conference. This call is being recorded. If anyone has any objections, you may disconnect at this time. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the conference call over to Johnson & Johnson. You may begin.

Louise Mehrotra

Management

Good morning and welcome. I’m Louise Mehrotra, Vice President of Investor Relations for Johnson & Johnson and it is my pleasure this morning to review our business results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2014. Joining me on the call today, are Alex Gorsky, Chairman of the Board of Directors and Chief Executive Officer, and Dominic Caruso, Vice President, Finance and Chief Financial Officer. A few logistics before we get into the details. This review is being made available via a webcast accessible through the Investor Relations section of the Johnson & Johnson Web site at investor.jnj.com. I’ll begin by briefly reviewing fourth quarter and full year results for the corporation and for our three business segments. Following my remarks, Alex will comment on the 2014 results and provide a strategic outlook for the Company. Then Dominic will provide some additional commentary on the business and review the income statement and provide guidance for 2015. We will then open the call to your questions. We expect the call to last approximately 90 minutes. Included with the press release that was issued earlier this morning is the schedule of sales for key products and/or businesses to facilitate updating your models. These schedules are available on the Johnson & Johnson Web site, as is the press release. Please note, we will be using a presentation to complement today’s commentary. The presentation is also available on our Web site. Before we begin, let me remind you that some of the statements made during this review are or maybe considered forward-looking statements. The 10-K for the fiscal year 2013 and the Company’s subsequent filings identify certain factors that could cause the Company’s actual results to differ materially from those projected in any forward-looking statements made today. The Company does not undertake to…

Alex Gorsky

Chairman

Thank you, Louise and good morning everyone who has joined the call today. I am really pleased to be reviewing with you the highlights of our very strong 2014 results and a preview of '15 and beyond. But before I get to that, I’d like to start as I often do with just a word on Our Credo. This remarkable document was written 71 years ago by the son of our founder and Johnson & Johnson has long been guided by its principles. And what I can tell you is that this philosophy, this ethos is alive and well in our organization. There is a fixated version of it etched in glass and positioned directly in front of my desk. It’s something we pay a lot of attention to and it challenges our entire Company to ensure that we’re working with the interest of our key stakeholders in mind consumers, care-givers and patients, our employees, the global communities in which we live and work and of course our shareholders. And as we enter 2015, the business of Johnson & Johnson is very strong and we’re well-position for the long-term. We delivered 31 consecutive years of adjusted earnings increases, and 52 consecutive years of dividend increases for our shareholders. We’re one of just three companies to be Triple A rated by all three major credit agencies, which continues to afford us many benefits in the financial markets. Our products are industry and segment-leading with 70% of sales coming from the number one or number two market share position and 25% of our sales coming from products we’ve launched in the past five years. And we reward the shareholders by returning about 70% of our free cash flow over the past decade, which amounts to about $90 billion. As most of you…

Dominic Caruso

CFO

Thank you, Alex and good morning everyone. It’s a great pleasure to report on our excellent 2014 performance which was driven by the many successes that Alex previously discussed, as well as to provide guidance for you to consider as you update your models for 2015. Now let’s review some highlights of our full year and fourth quarter financial performance. Turning to the next slide you can see our condensed consolidated statement of earnings for the full year of 2014. At the beginning of 2014 we provided an outlook of our expected financial performance for the year and we saw continued improvement in our results throughout the year. That growth was driven by strong sales results, particularly in our Pharmaceutical business and also good expense management across the enterprise. And so we ended 2014 with full year sales growth of 4.2% with operational sales growth of 6.1%, which exceeded our initial guidance of 4% to 5%. Excluding the impact of acquisitions and divestitures our operational sales growth was a strong 8% for the year. While we did benefit from a significant level of sales of our Hepatitis C products, excluding both of these factors our operational sales growth for 2014 was approximately 5%. I am also pleased to report that our pre-tax operating margin for 2014, excluding the impact of special items, improved by 190 basis points with more than half of that coming from sales of OLYSIO. Finally, our net income margin excluding special items improved to 23%. Turning to the next slide, you can see our condensed consolidated statement of earnings for the fourth quarter of 2014. While our total sales change of negative 0.6% reflects a negative impact of currency movements, we’re pleased to report operational sales growth of 3.9%, which as Louise discussed earlier was driven…

Louise Mehrotra

Management

Thank you, Dominic. To assist you with updating your models with comparative 2014 adjusted EPS excluding intangible amortization and special items we have posted a reconciliation by-quarter to the Web site. We will now open the call to your questions. Lhea, can you please give the instructions for the Q&A session?

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Lawrence Biegelsen, Wells Fargo.

Lawrence Biegelsen

Analyst · Lawrence Biegelsen, Wells Fargo

Let me ask two to Alex. Alex let me just start off with the nearly 14 billion in net cash that you have that’s close to the largest for J&J in recent years but you’ve been relatively, you’ve done relatively small deals since taking over as the CEO. Is there any color you can provide on your appetite to do a larger deal and your priorities for M&A? And then I have one follow-up question for you.

Alex Gorsky

Chairman

Larry consistent with our strategy, we’re always looking for opportunities frankly that help us better fulfill unmet medical need and so if we start with our pharmaceutical area I think over the past several years we’ve done a really nice job of identifying compounds early on in that development, things like ZYTIGA, things like ibrutinib, bringing them in, putting them through a very rapid and extensive clinical development program and then of course having successful launches. And as we've experienced 14 new product launches since 2009. So we think in the pharmaceutical area that kind of approach to sourcing new technology and new compounds is definitely a successful one. If we look to our Medical Devices, of course our big focus over the past in making sure that we're making the most of the significant investment that we made in Synthes. And I think we made a lot of headways I outlined during my presentation and in fact I think we were one of the first companies to really look hard at spaces like orthopedics and recognize that consolidation was very likely to occur and so we were able to do that in a way where we feel we got a very good portfolio fit. And as we’ve managed through that transition over the past several years, we feel that we're in a very good position now particularly as many of our competitors are just starting to go through some of those consolidation initiatives. But even in this space we continue to look for new options, new innovations. There is number of spaces, we’ve identified areas such as orthopedics, such as surgical, such as vision care in particular to be significant priorities for us and we continue to look in those spaces. If we look to consumer, our top priority over the last several years frankly has been on remediating our over-the-counter brands, particularly here in the United States. And I really commend the team for the great work they have done. The McNeil Group has basically completed the major steps, the consent decree so they are on a very good path, they are re-launching brands you see it in our results for the quarter. But here too we continue to look for ways to innovate, continue to look for ways to add scale and expand in the appropriate way. And of course while we're doing that we're also making sure that we're being very disciplined and decisive about businesses that we're choosing not to participate in. And I think we made a number of moves over the last several years that also has allowed us to continue to invest, but has also been healthy for the shareholders at the same time.

Lawrence Biegelsen

Analyst · Lawrence Biegelsen, Wells Fargo

And then Alex I know this may seem like an overly simplistic question, but over the past 15 years J&J’s pharma business has gone through three, roughly five year cycles with the first five being strong, followed by a deceleration due to patent expiration, followed by another five strong years or so. And when one looks at the pharma business one can't help but see increasing competition to key products like ZYTIGA and STELARA, as well as the biosimilar competition that you highlighted on the call which will slow your overall pharma growth. So my question is how confident are you that you can break those five year cycles we've seen over the past 15 years and why? Thanks.

Alex Gorsky

Chairman

And look I am very proud of our Pharmaceutical business, and frankly the work that they have done over the past five or six years to address as you highlighted the significant patent expiry challenge that we experienced and that we successfully navigated our way through. When you think about it, we lost about $8.5 billion to patent expiration several years ago and we took a determined strategy that frankly was different than a lot of our competitors where we decided to focus on five major therapeutic areas where we had capabilities and frankly where we still felt there was a lot of unmet medical need. We got very agnostic about the sourcing of our research. At the end of the day we wanted the best molecule, the best science where we felt we could make the biggest difference and then of course it was about how do you build robust clinical development programs and then ultimately have benchmark commercial and reimbursement teams to make sure that you are maximizing all of those compounds. And if you look at the track record as I mentioned earlier, 14 compounds since 2009, six of those have reached a $1 billion and again these are compounds that are really making a difference for patients. But at the same time, we have made a very strong commitment to make sure that while we were launching those, we were also investing in the future. And here I really want to commend our scientific team, our business development team because if you look at our near-term pipeline I think it's quite encouraging. We've got things like ARN-509, another approach in androgen receptor inhibitors that we think will be a great compliment with ZYTIGA in the not too distant future. To complement an already very strong immunology…

Louise Mehrotra

Management

Next question please.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Derrick Sung of Sanford Bernstein.

Derrick Sung

Analyst · Sanford Bernstein

Alex, you spent a lot of time highlighting the successes that you’ve had in pharma which we would agree you’ve done a great job and seemingly finding kind of secret sauce there in terms of both external and internal innovation. I am wondering if you have any thoughts on how translatable that formula is over to your medical device business, which has continued to -- you struggled to grow above market and maybe could talk about if there are any learnings there that could be translated over to Medical Devices and what it will take either internally or externally for you to get that Medical Device business growing above market?

Alex Gorsky

Chairman

And first of all, clearly we acknowledge our Medical Device Group has faced challenges that many of the businesses have over the past several years and we’ve got some very promising and I think very strong stories in our Medical Device Group and when you think about our EP business BioSense Webster and the growth rate that this experienced, I think we’d now -- we have about 19 consecutive quarters of double-digit growth for that business, a continues and constant stream of innovation, ultimately really helping patients in growing our business, it's impressive by almost any measure. I think we’ve also started to see some of our other core businesses come back and grow. We think about the Medical Device market probably growing in the 3% to 5% range, it's been consistent with our longer-term projections. Of course our goal is to outpace that growth because we want to gain share vis-à-vis innovation, the way we work with customers in our broader portfolio. If I look across other areas, we’re starting I think to see signs of a strengthening orthopedics performance by DePuy Synthes. For example we saw hips up around 4%, knees up 3%, trauma growing at the high 4s, almost 5% and we think our share performance has been very good in all of those different areas. We saw energy also on a full year basis come back over 5%, even our Suture business is growing over 3% on an annual basis. So we think those are strong performers and can continue. And then of course we have some businesses that we’re working hard on, areas such as diabetes which as you know was challenged by the price setbacks, our Vision Care business is facing challenges in the marketplace, but they have done a lot of good changes recently and we think they are well-positioned for the future. But as we look even longer-term, clearly we’re trying to take pages from the innovation playbook that you might say our pharma group is built on and apply those in other areas. So whether it's in our clinical development programs, the way we monitor safety, adverse event reporting, those are areas we’re spending a lot of time. We’re doing more and more through our innovation centers that we’re recently opening and utilizing JJDC on how do we better source early start-up innovation. Again in the pharma as well as the device but even our Consumer businesses going forward and of course we’re looking at ways also to partner with customer in new unique ways. So, we remain confident in our Medical Device businesses, we’ve got some very strong businesses, we’ve got -- we realize there is others that we still have more work to do, but we think long-term they offer a significant opportunity for patients, for us and for our shareholders.

Derrick Sung

Analyst · Sanford Bernstein

I was wondering Alex also if you could follow-up a bit on your comments on healthcare utilization. You’d mentioned that now you're seeing a couple quarters of sequential uptick in healthcare utilization. Can you perhaps break that down a bit by geography and give us your outlook and also what you're seeing in the U.S. versus Europe versus the emerging markets and how you -- what you see the drivers are for utilization as we look out to 2015 and beyond?

Alex Gorsky

Chairman

As you know because of our presence in pharmaceuticals, as well as devices and even consumer it gives us a pretty good lens to understand what’s going on fundamentally in the market. So let me start in the United States where you probably have the clearest and the most tangible data and here we’re encouraged, we think we’ve got about three quarters now in the positive, when I say in the positive I mean somewhere between 2% and 3% when we’re looking at hospital admissions, surgical procedures, physician office visits still appear to be negative. So I think it's too early to declare complete victory yet, but generally I would say we’re encouraged by some of the signs that we’re seeing and if we can see the fourth quarter, the full results coming out for this year and have a third quarter then of increasing results that would be a positive. I think one of the areas of challenge for us has been Europe. There remain obviously a lot of concerns economically in Europe. We have some businesses frankly that are doing quite well. We have others that are challenged. I think it’s a bit of a mixed bag. We continue to see good growth in China on a full year basis. We saw over 10% -- double-digit growth in China and close to that in the BRIC regions although obviously with Russia, that’s been particularly challenged over the last year given some of the things that we faced. South America a little bit more with Venezuela. Brazil has been a little bit mixed. We saw some challenges on our Consumer segment and some of the other areas. We haven’t felt that as much, but I think that’s a global sense that we give you.

Louise Mehrotra

Management

Next question please.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Mike Weinstein, JPMorgan.

Mike Weinstein

Analyst

So Dominic let me start with you if you don’t mind, so I just want to walk through the kind of approach to numbers this year, so you have starting point for on a cash EPS basis of $6.39 for 2014, but then you lose $0.42 in FX let’s call it $0.20 from OLYSIO, but then the other income step up from '14 to '15 adds extra $1 billion gains of about $0.30, is that how to think about it? And then and if that’s right it would still seem to imply relatively conservative underlying EPS growth outlook of about 1% to 3% so is there anything I’m missing there?

Dominic Caruso

CFO

I think the impact of the higher other income and expense line I mean you have to think about that as utilizing the tax rate that’s predominantly U.S. versus our blended tax rate I would say that the impacts lower than $0.30 a share and closer to $0.20 to $0.22 a share. Just think about a $1 billion at a 35% tax rate and 6.50 and do the math on that, so I don’t think you get the 0.30 on that, so I would adjust that a little bit. And then I would just give you maybe another macro observation Mike and that is that if you -- I know that not everyone has updated their models for all of the moving parts here, but I think if you -- when I look to consensus at about 6.14 and then I consider the fact that we should add back to that $0.32 of this amortization expense and then reduce it by what I’m using as about $0.24 which is the difference between $0.42 that I just discussed and the midpoint of what we provided as an estimate back in October between $0.15 and $0.20 so that call that 0.18, so an incremental $0.24. So 6.14 plus 0.32 minus 0.24 gets you to in the 6.20 range. And so we’re thinking that that’s about apart from the expectation on currency about where everyone had sort of expected us to come out.

Mike Weinstein

Analyst

But with the let me fast forward then into 2016 so, we should assume that that level of other income benefit fade in 2016, so is that a bit of a headwind as we’re trying to update our model going from '15 but to '16?

Dominic Caruso

CFO

Well I think that as Alex has talked about and I’ve mentioned in other calls and you all have asked us about, we’re continuing to review our portfolio. We expect that we will continue to make choices of that areas we’re going to play in and areas we’re not going to play in. Where we want to invest and where we think others certain assets maybe better in the hands of others. And when we do that and we divest certain businesses as a result of that analysis, we tend to use those divestiture gains to basically benefit shareholders. So we either use it to invest in other more promising activities that we think will give us a better boost in long-term growth or in fact we deliver a higher level of earnings as a result and of course as we did with OCD, if there’s any dilutive impact of that on a go-forward basis we would then adjust for that with share buybacks and alike. So I would say that, I wouldn’t take '15 as sort of an abnormal number and I wouldn’t just say would fade into '16, it all depends on what choices we make when we evaluate our portfolio going forward.

Mike Weinstein

Analyst

Let me ask one if I can sneak in one bigger picture question so if I pick up your noise from OLYSIO the underlying growth in the business is accelerating in your guidance for 2015, could you just comment on that so what businesses are you assuming get better between pharma and medical devices and consumer?

Dominic Caruso

CFO

Yes well overall I would say that the growth rate in pharma ex-OLYSIO will be slightly softer than it was the prior year as these products have now ramped up in the marketplace. So the medical device business overall and the consumer business are expected to have better growth prospects in '15 than we saw in '14.

Louise Mehrotra

Management

Next question please.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Glenn Novarro, RBC Capital Markets.

Glenn Novarro

Analyst

Two questions for Alex. First, Alex can you describe your commitment to your cardiovascular device business? And the reason I’m asking is that there was something written up a few months ago that J&J maybe thinking about selling the interventional cardiology business but not the electrophysiology business, so commitment to Cardiovascular. And then as a follow-up, what is your commitment to the Triple A rating, in other words how sacred is the Triple A rating? And the reason I am asking that is because as your competitors are getting bigger and bigger is better according to some of your competitors, if J&J were to see a deal that was larger but it would sacrifice the Triple A rating, would J&J do such a deal? Thank you.

Alex Gorsky

Chairman

Look Glenn I think that if you ask me about cardiovascular my response is that, we think cardiovascular is an important area. We have done very well over the last several years in our EP business as I mentioned earlier. And I think by any standard if you look at the way they have been able to advance the standard of care, if you take a look at the new technology, the innovation rollouts and frankly the execution of that business it has been superlative in just about every mark, and we’re really proud of that. We made decisions in other areas of the cardiovascular, such as our decision on drug-eluting stents several years ago. We’ve continued to look at emerging areas in cardiovascular, but I think overall we want to participate in areas where we’ve got technology that we think can really make a difference for patients, where we think the markets are promising for the future in terms of reaching more patients, expanding share, volume growth, some pricing stability. And so, we’re going to continue to evaluate our portfolio to make sure that we’re consistent with our strategy and as it relates to cardiovascular. If we talk about our Triple A, look we’re proud of the fact that we’re only one of the handful of companies that still have Triple A rating. It gives us a lot of financial flexibility. As an organization when you realize that we literally have almost no covenants, and the way that we’re able to manage our business for an enterprise of our size and frankly for the sustainability of our performance over a very long period of time, we think that’s important. However, what we would also say if we came upon technology that we felt was truly transformational that opened up new patient segments for us, new opportunities that is one factor that we would consider as we think as we would think about different acquisitions or different opportunities. So it’s one among many factors, it is very important to us, but it’s not the only factor that we would judge a strategic option by the future.

Louise Mehrotra

Management

Next question please?

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Jeff Halford, Jefferies.

Jeff Halford

Analyst

So we are seeing quite of contracting pressure in some areas of pharma. I just wanted to get a bit of color from you whether XARELTO is a product that you are potentially starting to get any more serious discussions with Eliquis becoming a much more penetrated within the U.S. market? And then also just INVOKANA as well just what the situation is like there? Just from a contracting perspective. And then second just give a bit more color on what kind of impacts you have expected within your guidance for REMICADE within Europe from biosimilars? And then just lastly if you can just give us a bit more color on the increase in the litigation accrual you described in your release? Thank you.

Alex Gorsky

Chairman

Let me start off with the first one and then I’ll ask Dominic to chime in on the other couple of questions. And first of all, we take a very broad look in the very early stages of our compound development on what potential impact or scenarios we could face regarding pricing and reimbursement, and so it starts very early with the science. And as I mentioned earlier in my commentary about our pharmaceutical strategy, we think taking a very high innovation approach in pharma is the right approach and it certainly has been the one most successful for us. And so part of it starts with selecting compounds that we feel have a strong probability of differentiation versus current standards of care and we think that’s certainly the case with XARELTO and INVOKANA. Secondly it really gets in your clinical development programs. And if you look at the XARELTO clinical development program that we had, I believe we had more than 60,000 patients as part of our plan, extensive studies as you know we have got more than five indications for that, literally at launch or very soon thereafter once-a-day dosing. And so as part of our development program and the labeling we had a very comprehensive approach. And we think that that clearly played a strong role in its rapid launch uptake. And I think the same for a drug like INVOKANA. If you take a look at the comparative labeling that we have versus Januvia regarding HbA1c reduction, regarding weight loss, other parameters, that’s enabled us to have a very differentiated and strong dasia to share with decision makers, payors around the world. So as a result what we think now not only have we seen strong acceptance but we have seen good formulary uptake. XARELTO for example in the United State is available on I believe more than 90% of the commercial as well as Medicare and Medicaid programs. We see the very strong uptake with INVOKANA, I think it’s somewhere around 70% or 80% even in most cases. And we’ve had good success outside of the United States as well. And so we think it takes again a very good clinical development program, strong labeling, very strong reimbursement and commercial expertise. And so that’s the way we think about those compounds. We haven’t seen additional pressures as of late but we certainly see competitive pressures. But we feel very good about our compounds that we’re frankly still in the launch stage of and their potential for future growth, Dom?

Dominic Caruso

CFO

Yes Jeff, with respect to REMICADE in Europe as you know we don’t provide specific product sales guidance on any product and particularly with REMICADE in Europe as you probably know Merck is our partner for distribution in Europe and the countries affected by biosimilar competition in the beginning of February 2015. So I think the question is best posed to them. One thing I would say though is that we have a view on how biosimilars are likely to unfold in the marketplace which is unlike how typical generic chemical compounds unfold in the marketplace. And our best experience there was with PROCRIT and Eprex in Europe. So using that as a guide, we felt pretty comfortable updating our guidance to reflect our expectation of that, but we won’t give very specific guidance on any product in particular.

Louise Mehrotra

Management

Thank you. Next question please.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Kristen Stewart, Deutsche Bank.

Kristen Stewart

Analyst

Dominic, I just wanted to just go back and reconfirm the other income commentary. So you are including the gain from NUCYNTA and going forward you said it would be likely that we would continue to see these gains on the sale of asset divestitures. Is that correct?

Dominic Caruso

CFO

Right. And so we did include that in this year’s guidance and in response to Mike’s question where he said would it fade off in 2016 I commented that consistent with our review of our portfolio and making decisions on where we’re going to invest and where we’re not, if we decided to divest other assets as part of that review then we would have similar type transaction gains in the particular year. And we would highlight them to you as we’re doing today.

Kristen Stewart

Analyst

And this year $0.20 to $0.22 just for that after-tax?

Dominic Caruso

CFO

I think if you look at the change in our guidance on other income and expense compared to what you all have modeled it’s about $1 billion after-tax of 35% gets you to about $0.20-$0.22 per share impact versus current models.

Kristen Stewart

Analyst

Okay. And then just kind of I guess more business operational. Can you just talk a little bit just about the surgery business you highlighted it has being a key area of focus within Medical Devices with some new products coming up. Can you just refresh us on your stance on robotics and what products you have within the pipeline that you’re most excited about in 2015?

Alex Gorsky

Chairman

Look, we’re excited about the broad area of surgery and as you know we break it out both by specialty surgery, as well as surgical care. And what I would start within specialty surgery, there is a number of areas that I think are great opportunities one is certainly energy. We’ve had a number of new launches this year that I think have resulted in about over 5%-5.2% full year growth rate in that franchise. We think there is a lot of opportunity going forward. We also saw very good performance from our Mentor business this year it grew it almost 9% after a couple of years of a lot of challenges. It came back strong and so we’re pleased with what we’ve seen there. And finally our bio-surgery business, which is the one that we also think can really revolutionize the way bleeding is controlled intraoperatively. We saw over 8% growth in it for the quarter, so by and large that segment of our surgical business is doing well. There we’re continuing to address some issues at ASP but our team has made a lot of headway there so we’re confident about that platform as well going forward. If I look more broadly in our other surgical business, we saw suture grow over 3% which was nice year-on-year growth in that particular area. We think that’s a good pre-cursor of what you see generally across all of surgery in the ENDOPATH area or ECHELONFLEX portfolio is also being introduced and is doing better. Clearly in certain areas there we’re facing pricing pressure. But overall, we think that the surgical area both in specialty as well as more general surgery offers a significant opportunity for us.

Kristen Stewart

Analyst

And with respect to robotics?

Alex Gorsky

Chairman

Regarding robotics, look as Gary mentioned during last year’s review of our Medical Device space, we think the areas of robotics visualization particularly if some of those components become more inherent to the instrumentation of themselves. We do think that they can offer opportunities. We’ve got several partnerships there as we speak. And we’ll continue to look for ways to think about how that’s going to impact surgery going forward.

Louise Mehrotra

Management

Thank you. Next question please.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from David Lewis, Morgan Stanley.

David Lewis

Analyst

Alex more a kind of a high level question on international if we think about the last three years '13 growth rate’s a little slower than '12-'14 growth rates looks slower than '13. Even the second half '14 was slower than first half '14. Given you’re kind of focused on global reach can you just describe why international is decelerating, is it emerging markets and what’s the strategy to turn that around? And then I have a quick follow-up?

Alex Gorsky

Chairman

Look there is a lot of different moving parts so let me talk about it. I think first of all let’s talk about Europe, in Europe we saw contraction initially then Europe actually performed better. As I mentioned earlier in the guidance going forward we’re watching it closely and even there you’ve got Southern Europe versus Northern Europe. We continue to see Northern Europe performing slightly better than the rest of Europe it’s been impacted in the most recent quarter by Russia in a significant way. So that’s a watch out although we have had some of our businesses such as our consumer group do relatively well in Russia. But it’s something that we’re watching closely. China we continue to see pretty solid growth for our businesses our Medical Device business is the most significant in that they may continue to see good growth there. Our consumer group has had some other challenges that we don’t think necessarily are related to the macroeconomic environment and frankly they have to do with some of our own products and ingredients. But we think that we’re on a better path there. And then if I look to South America we’ve been most challenged there, in Venezuela. Brazil definitely we feel there was some slowdown in the back end of the year. And we’re just going to have to watch it closely as we head into 2015.

Dominic Caruso

CFO

David just one thing to remind you about when you said it slowed down further in the back of '14 compared to first half of '14 just a reminder that the divesture of the OCD business would have impacted that comparison as well.

Alex Gorsky

Chairman

Yes.

David Lewis

Analyst

And maybe just a quick one for Dominic and then a strategic one for Alex if I can sneak that one in, Dominic just I know it’s hard with all the moving pieces do you have any sense of what you consider the underlying operating margin expansion to be for the business in 2015? And then Alex just strategically just thinking to your comments in the slide deck this morning is it safe to interpret your comments that within pharmaceuticals, oncology probably sees an increase relative investment over the next couple of years relatively to historical periods? Thank you I’ll jump back in queue.

Dominic Caruso

CFO

Sure David just in terms of operating margin expansion in '15 just to set the stage for you, remember we expanding our operating profit margin by 190 basis points in 2014. So we’re already at a pretty high level and we wanted to continue the investment and we said we would use the divesture gain that’s included in our OI&E number for NUCYNTA to offset the lost profitability on OLYSIO and by doing that we’re going to maintain the level of investment that we now have achieved. So an incremental operating margin expansion in 2015 would be very modest.

Alex Gorsky

Chairman

And David I would say we are really focused on all five of our therapeutic categories. Oncology is certainly an exciting one and when you look at the science and what’s happening there we think that there is a lot of opportunity to better address need for patients. We think there is a lot of very interesting science, but also when we look at immunology when we look at infectious disease, when we look at neuroscience, as well as broader spaces in cardiovascular and diabetes, we think that all of those offer significant potential for us.

Louise Mehrotra

Management

Thank you. Next question please.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Rick Wise, Stifel.

Rick Wise

Analyst

Alex maybe as a start a little more detail with diabetes if you would it’s been underperforming asset maybe just broadly what do you need to turn around and let me touch on a couple of points. Remind us when you had received the price cuts, Vibe approved and launching here we’ve heard great things about it in Europe. Is that going to be a good product feed for what we expect to see in the U.S and maybe you had a picture of the caliber patch? Remind us when you hope to file and get that approved and launched in the United States?

Alex Gorsky

Chairman

Diabetes is clearly one of those areas Rick where you know and we would add several conversations on this. There are 350 million Type 2 diabetics around the world and so many of them not in control. There is a lot of unmet need. But we also realize it’s been a very challenging market particularly in the areas of the part of the market that we’ve been in for the last several years. So Louise is going to get the exact date when we lapped it.

Louise Mehrotra

Management

The price changes went into effect about a year ago June. But you’re still seeing the impact of them and you saw them earlier in the year and you’re still seeing some of them.

Alex Gorsky

Chairman

And look for a very significant portion of our market we saw over a 70% price reduction and as you know whenever that happens in one of your businesses you frankly have got to reframe that entire business. And I think all of the companies involved in SMBG have gone through that kind of transition over the last year and a half. If we look at the underlying fundamentals things such as volume share, we’ve actually done a very good job. We’ve done a very good job in managed care contracting. So as a result we’ve been able to keep our volumes up, our costs under control. But nonetheless that business is completely had to reshape itself and there are still in the process of I think getting it stabilized. We are excited about the Vibe approval. We think that’s going to represent a real nice breakthrough for patients over in Europe we’ve had strong results. We’re putting together the launch literally as we speak, so we’re excited about that. We think Calibra could be a very nice opportunity very unobtrusive way to have insulin delivery. And it looks right now by the year -- backend of the year 2016 we should have more on that. So again overall diabetes is an area that we feel strongly about and by the way this is the same team that had a very significant role in the launch of INVOKANA as well. And we think the relationships that they have built with the endocrinologists have been quite important for us in the long success of that brand as well. So it's an area that we're interested in but clearly one that's changed and we still have more work to do to make sure we understand the best path forward.

Rick Wise

Analyst

And Dominic just one question for you, the $1 billion cost reduction program it sounds like the new one -- newly incremental one if I understood you over three years. Just help us briefly where did that come from, what operating lines does it affect and is it incremental or you reinvested? Thanks.

Dominic Caruso

CFO

We actually talked about it last year at this time as well, so it's not a new program, it's just the same program we discussed and we're confident that we will get about a $1 billion over the next three year period. It's in the area of IT, finance, HR all the functions that support the businesses, how we perform those services, where we perform those services and as Alex mentioned earlier some more standardization and commonality across the businesses through shared service environment. You’ll see it across the SG&A line in particular but we would always look to see what the right balance is of investing versus delivering those cost savings of course we do expect pricing pressure to continue so this was a good hedge against that as well Rick.

Louise Mehrotra

Management

Thank you. Next question please.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Vamil Divan, Credit Suisse.

Vamil Divan

Analyst

Just a follow-up to an earlier question I think from Jeff on INVOKANA and XARELTO some of the contracting issues. Just curious about the specialty care markets so certainly the TNFs and you are going to see obviously a lot of discussion on pricing and primary care and have seen but are you seeing anything more in the specialty care areas specifically in autoimmune how has that changed kind of over the last six to 12 months from what you have seen before?

Alex Gorsky

Chairman

Alex here, we haven't seen any significant changes over the last six or 12 months. And again we've got a lot of experience in those areas with REMICADE, SIMPONI, and STELARA. And I think the team has done a nice job in managing the overall value of pricing and reimbursement issues but we haven't seen any noticeable changes in that environment.

Vamil Divan

Analyst

Okay. And then just one follow-up if I could is on the tax side. We had the lower rate this time and you mentioned for '15. How should we think about just longer-term tax planning, I mean is the range you are giving now, what would you kind of assume going forward are there other steps that can lower your longer-term rate?

Alex Gorsky

Chairman

Well I think Vamil we're always doing prudent tax planning and I think the ultimate change in tax rates would come from hopefully corporate tax reform being implemented. In which case if you project that I would then project a slightly higher effective tax rate and of course the utilization of all U.S cash et cetera without penalty is a great benefit that arises from that. So I can't give you a long-term projection but you have seen that we've been sort of in the 20% range for quite some time and that I think it's a solid place if you just want to model it for now.

Louise Mehrotra

Management

Thank you. And we will take our final question from Danielle.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Danielle Antalffy, Leerink Partners.

Danielle Antalffy

Analyst

As we -- so appreciating all the headwinds that are impacting growth in 2015, how do we think about sort of medium-term growth for '16-'17. And what's in the pipeline to return the Company back to growth this is sort of following-up on Larry's question Alex on specifically the pharma company and going through a few years of strong growth and a few years of decelerating growth. What's in the pipeline that gives you confidence that 2015 is sort of a one-off where you observe headwinds from OLYSIO specifically and then of course FX?

Alex Gorsky

Chairman

Look I would say first of all, we think that there is significant growth left in our core brands. And as I mentioned earlier whether you look at the penetration that you have within a particular therapeutic category for Actavis the new novel mechanisms in against warfarin for example. If you look at the penetration of the SGLT2 versus other options in diabetes and frankly the growth rates of the market in areas such as prostate cancer or some of the leukemias, we think there is a lot of growth opportunities just from reaching more patients. Number two, it's about getting additional indications and line extensions. And so I think our team has done also a very nice job there in continuing to reinforce introducing new data, new information, new approaches, that whether it's combination therapies, whether it's something like our three month version of Paliperidone that we just announced that we know in a condition such as schizophrenia could have a tremendous impact if you can keep compliance high on just four injections a year. We think I in that core business it gives us a very solid opportunity with the line extensions. And then of course if we look beyond that, some of the compounds that I mentioned earlier, we think ARN-509 will be a great complement with ZYTIGA and we’re learning more and more about that and we’re becoming increasingly confident as we gather more data. In immunology, our IL-6 and IL-23 with Sirukumab and Guselkumab will be great additions to a portfolio where we’ve already got three compounds and we know very well clinically, we know very well commercially as well as from a reimbursement perspective. And finally, Esketamine, while still early, we’re very encouraged by the data, we really are encouraged by the fact that we’ve seen whether we’ve received breakthrough therapy designation as well as Daratumumab in pain. So we think those in addition to our line extensions and additional indications that we’ll be gathering, remember we filed more than 20 different line extensions over the course of 2014. We have 11 compounds in Phase 2 development, I think we’ve got 50 compounds in early development more than 100 in discovery in addition to the ongoing licensing flow that we were able to build this year, I think it gives us a lot of confidence in our portfolio going forward.

Danielle Antalffy

Analyst

And then if I could just follow-up really quickly with the question on the device side of things, so obviously we’re nearing a close of one of your competitors or two of your competitors emerging and a mega transaction here making a big bet on breadth and scale across the hospital and bundling et cetera. So just wondering how you guys are planning to respond to that, how you think the environment could change from a purchasing perspective at the hospital level with the Medtronic Covidien deal once it closes?

Alex Gorsky

Chairman

Yes I guess what I would say Danielle is we wouldn’t respond to that necessarily, I think we initiated probably some of it with our move several years ago, when we started down this path ourselves. And we’ve been pretty steadfast on our strategy one it's about innovation and that’s why we’re continuing to invest in innovation in all of our core Medical Device businesses. We do think that having scale in the right areas is also important as payors, and as hospital systems want to deal with you differently. And then it's about having also a very good geographical presence so that you can expand globally. And we’re always looking for opportunities to add the right new technology or the right business to ours and that’s the path that we’ll stay on.

Alex Gorsky

Chairman

Okay. Alright everybody thank you again for joining today’s call and together with Dominic and Louise I look forward to keeping you apprised of our progress over the course of the year and I am sure we’ll be talking on several different occasions. So please note that we’re going to be hosting a pharmaceutical business review for analysts on Wednesday, May 20, 2015 right here in New Brunswick and then it will include a review of our overall strategy for continuing to build on our launch excellence and robust pipeline much of which I talked about today. So I look forward to seeing many of you there. Enjoy the rest of your day everybody. Thank you.