Earnings Labs

KB Home (KBH)

Q1 2014 Earnings Call· Wed, Mar 19, 2014

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, my name is Michele and I will be your conference operator today, and I would like to welcome everyone to the KB Home 2014 First Quarter Earnings Conference Call. At this time all participants will be in a listen-only mode. Today's conference is being recorded and a live webcast is available on KB Home's website at kbhome.com. Following the company's opening remarks we will open the lines for questions. KB Home's discussion today may include forward-looking statements that reflect management's current views and expectations of market conditions, future events and the company's business performance. These statements are not guarantees of future results and the company does not undertake any obligation to update them. Due to a number of factors outside of its control, including those identified in the SEC filings, the company's actual results could be materially different from those expressed and/or implied by the forward-looking statements. A reconciliation of non-GAAP measures referenced during today's discussion to their most directly comparable GAAP measures can be found in the company's earnings release issued earlier today and/or on the Investor Relations page of the company's website. I'll now turn the conference call over to the company's Chief Executive Officer, Mr. Jeff Mezger. Sir, you may begin.

Jeffrey T. Mezger

Management

Thank you, Michele and thank you everyone for joining us today for a review of our first quarter results. With me this morning are Jeff Kaminski, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Bill Hollinger, our Senior Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer; and Thad Johnson, our Vice President and Treasurer. I'll start today's call by reviewing many of the highlights of our first quarter results which illustrate the substantial progress we continue to make in our business. We were particularly pleased with reporting a profit of $10.6 million as this is the first time we generated a profit in the first quarter since 2007. I view this as a positive inflection point in our business, one that we intend to build on over the course of the year. Following a review of the highlights I will offer few comments on the continued improvement we are seeing in housing market conditions before turning the call over to Jeff Kaminski, who will present a detailed look at our financial results. I will then provide a few closing comments before we open up the call to your questions. To begin, our first quarter results confirmed that our strategy is working, as we reported year-over-year improvements in nearly all key financial metrics. We reported revenues of over $450 million, an increase of 11%. While our unit deliveries were down slightly our average selling price rose by 12% contributing to our positive revenue growth. This revenue growth is a direct result of the community positioning strategy that I've been sharing with you on prior calls; a strategy in which we have been focusing on acquiring lands and developing communities in well located land constrained and highly desirable submarkets and featuring homes design to appeal to today’s home buyers. We are targeting submarkets with…

Jeff Kaminski

Management

Thank you, Jeff and good morning. Our targeted investment in locations desired by higher income home buyers and the higher average selling prices generated from the products we offer to these buyers, were the chief drivers of our improved performance for the quarter. As Jeff highlighted in his remarks by opening more new home communities in highly attractive areas we have been able to improve our net orders, revenues and gross profit margins while establishing a healthy backlog of homes. We have also further enhanced our profitability by taking advantage of the many levers available in our business model to generate incremental revenues and margin from homes delivered. In addition we have reduced our SG&A expenses as a percentage of revenues. The success of our investment product and sales strategies are reflected in our first quarter results and we remain focused on year-over-year community count growth and gross profit margin expansion for 2014. For the first quarter of 2014 our net income increased to $10.6 million or $0.12 per diluted share, as compared to a loss of $12.5 million for the prior year period. The bottom line improvement was primarily driven by a mix of revenue growth from higher selling prices, continued strong gross profit margin performance and an improved SG&A expense ratio. We believe our reporting of first quarter net income for the first time since 2007 marks a certain inflection point for our business and we expect to continue to generate profitable growth for the remainder of the year. First quarter total revenues of $451 million rose by over $45 million or 11% compared to the same period of 2013 with year-over-year growth ranging from 18% to 63% in the Southwest Central and Southeast regions more than offsetting a decline in the our West Coast region. The lower…

Jeffrey T. Mezger

Management

Thanks, Jeff. Before sharing my concluding comments I would like to take a moment and recognize the dedication and commitment of all KB Home employees who continue to do the hard work that delivers our profitable results, satisfies our customers and builds our momentum for the future. The combination of our strategic investments, new product offerings and improved execution, now coupled with sustained community count growth has us extremely well positioned for accelerated profits and growth. The significant number of brand openings on the horizon across our footprint gives us confidence that we will deliver meaningful increases in revenue and profit throughout the remainder of 2014. We remain committed to restoring our gross margins to over 20% as well as leveraging our existing growth platform to contain SG&A. We are building on a foundation of a profitable 2013 and we have momentum in our business. Our dedication to our business model and the insight and opportunities it provides has enabled us to find success in today’s housing market and we are excited about the incredible opportunities we have created for our company. We’re off to a solid start to the year and I know the best is yet to come. With that Michele we’ll be happy to take questions.

Operator

Operator

Okay. (Operator Instructions). Your first question comes from Michael Rehaut from JPMorgan. Your line is open.

Michael Rehaut - JPMorgan

Analyst

First question I had was on sales pace, you had a nice or a better than expected result relative to our estimates and I think most expectations, down 4% year-over-year, and that certainly is a lower decline than the previous two quarters or a lesser decline, just wanted to get a sense of where you saw some of the -- maybe by from a regional perspective, which regions showed a greater decline than that 4% or if there are any regions that were up year-over-year and what maybe perhaps drove the sequential improvement given that you're still kind off facing a relatively tough comp in the first half of the year.

Jeffrey T. Mezger

Management

Michael, what are you referring to when you say the 4% decline.

Michael Rehaut - JPMorgan

Analyst

That will be sales per community on a year-over-year basis.

Jeffrey T. Mezger

Management

Okay. And you are talking sequential or year-over-year?

Michael Rehaut - JPMorgan

Analyst

Year-over-year, so your orders were up 6%, your community count was up about 10%, 11% and so the offset was the decline in the sales base on a year-over-year basis.

Jeffrey T. Mezger

Management

Okay I got it. And I don't recall the specific three point whatever it was last year versus three point whatever it was this year but they're within range of each other. I think it was down slightly and in any given month Mike there is seasonal things and you got a community opening or another one closing. And if you look at our business we're at a scale now where we're profitable and we're focused on continuing to improve our gross margins. So we're not going to let communities run away with sales. We could have sold more homes in the quarter, but well, as I said in my comments we're going to balance the optimal sales pace and the best price to give us the best returns and hopefully the highest gross margins. Lot of communities opened later in the quarter, it's part of the average as we shared we think that with our community count momentum we'll continue to see expanding sales going forward. I would say in general that all of our regions were good in January and February, I can't think about single region that was struggling. Coast of California in particular remains very strong and we're very pleased with that. But as I go around the various markets they're all, because of where we're open, they are outperforming quite nicely for us today.

Jeff Kaminski

Management

To add to it, just a little bit Jeff I mean, our focus remains on sales value and driving sales value especially with our community repositioning efforts across our business. We saw double-digit increases in order values in all of our regions, low 11% a high of 27% in central region which is particularly strong and an overall increase in sales value of 18% for the quarter which was pleasing given the environment.

Michael Rehaut - JPMorgan

Analyst

Okay, great. I guess that kind of leads me to the second question given the improvement in sales value and ASPs and you continue to execute well in terms of the gross margin improvement and it was helpful that you stated that you expected continued improvement in gross margins for the balance of the year. You reiterated a couple of times Jeff you have the commitment to get to 20% or better and obviously again you still have that positive momentum at your -- the tailwind. Can you give us any sense if you would expect to hit that number by the end of this year or would that be more of a 2015 event, I guess particularly as you look at your backlogs today.

Jeffrey T. Mezger

Management

Mike, we would love to -- where we want to be there today. Obviously there is a lot of moving parts that play into it whether its cost or price and all the things that we shared. Frankly a lot of it will depend on how strong the spring season is for us as to when we would get there. We're not going to commit that we'll get there this year but we are going to commit that we'll continue to expand as the year unfolds.

Michael Rehaut - JPMorgan

Analyst

Okay and just one last one for modeling purposes helpful in terms of the expected tax rate or a DTA reversal, Jeff Kaminski, do you have any sense of -- as that were to occur what and for modeling purposes what an ongoing fully loaded tax rate would be, the effective tax rate?

Jeff Kaminski

Management

Yeah we believe once we have a reversal in the full DTA back on the balance sheet and we are back in the normalized tax rate we think it will probably be in the range of 35% to 38% going forward.

Michael Rehaut - JPMorgan

Analyst

Great, thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Ivy Zelman from Zelman & Associates. Your line is open. Ivy Zelman - Zelman & Associates, LLC : Good morning. Thanks, Jeff for telling the world that spring is not [above], congratulations on a good quarter and nice to see such strong activity. I guess one of the things that you can clarify just for everyone's understanding, given your success you talked about North Phoenix, Scottsdale and market concern over Phoenix and it sounds like you guys are outperforming the general market. Is it your price point that you are doing so well is it your location? So that's an easy one I hope. And then the second one more specific to the reduction in loan limits for FHA. There has been some concerns in some markets where there has been an outsized decrease in loan limits that those markets are really being negatively impacted. So I know you indicated Jeff in your opening comments that mortgage is still tight. We’ve heard some modest easing. So if you can help us on broader understanding FHA loan limit impact to your, especially newer communities you opened in some of those affected markets and what near term headwind that will continue but congratulations, great results.

Jeffrey T. Mezger

Management

Okay thanks Ivy. As to Phoenix community it's Northeast Phoenix, not Scottsdale, it's very close obviously to Scottsdale and Paradise Valley. So it is a -- I used it as an example of a land constrained play where we came in with a higher density detached product that is well under the price points of traditional lot sized products in the area. The closest volume builder is five, six, seven miles away. So you have no real new home competition. And in this example we actually talked with the seller and targeted this community almost 15 years ago. And through our relationships we’re finally able to nail it and then bring it to the market. So in this case you have incredible demand, incredible traffic and visibility, a lot of people want to live there. So it’s a conventional FHA cash there. We’re seeing all the buyers there and demand so strong you don't worry about it. And I would say the same of other desirable land constrained, high demand low inventory locations across the country. Again similar to the St. Petersburg story we shared over in Florida, if you look at the FHA loan limits we’re monitoring it and we haven’t seen a significant impact on our business. I do think in some of the markets that it’s going to have an impact in lower demand submarkets where if prices are above loan limits and FHA was the vehicle for that consumer it could add some pressure there. So it will be an overall market pressure in the, what I’d call it B minus submarkets and the As and Bs to B plus will continue to perform and at the time the limits went down as I recall our FHA business was 30%, 35% whatever. So it's -- it…

Jeff Kaminski

Management

Actually we increased our guidance a bit. I think last quarter we were -- we had a pretty wide range of 10% to 20%. We tightened that up now to be between 15% and 20% and that’s end of year versus end of year. We were up 10% on average in the quarter and we’re obviously pleased with that and we’ll continue to push that ahead. And the other pleasing piece was we opened 29 communities during the quarter and that’s off a comp in the prior year of only 15. So we more than doubled and that’s about half the communities that we opened in the full fiscal year of 2012. So it’s on a good pace, the land development and acquisition work that we’ve been doing and working really hard at last couple of years, that certainly pay off with community count expansion and we’re pleased to see that trend continue this quarter. Ivy Zelman - Zelman & Associates, LLC : Hey Jeff, just to sneak with more in on incentive, there is a lot of concern about the market and a pickup in incentives. It sounds like not only are you not seeing a pickup in incentives but you’re getting pricing. Can you talk about the market sort of percentagewise how many of your communities you actually raised prices during the quarter or held prices and maybe just a commentary on incentives generally?

Jeffrey T. Mezger

Management

Ivy, I couldn't even tell you what the percentage is where we raised prices. It’s selective. We do have communities where we are raising prices, some significantly due to demand. Then there are others where we are not raising prices at all at which we keep the sales price. As you know in our business model we are not incentive heavy. We always go for offering the consumer the best value out of the gate. So it will be an attractive pricing you build up from there at the studios. So if you look at our financials over the years incentives have never been a big number and right now our incentives are no different than they were a year ago or two years ago. So we are not seeing a big spike in incentives around our business. If you think about the type of communities that I have shared we are opening, your biggest competitor is resale. So we are not faced with a competitor that’s out there offering heavier incentives to go get sales in most of our locations and overall based on the anecdotes I am hearing from the field, people are being pretty disciplined and going after the spring market. So we’re not hearing of big incentives coming out there. Ivy Zelman - Zelman & Associates, LLC : Great, thanks guys.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Dan Oppenheim from Credit Suisse. Your line is open.

Daniel Oppenheim - Credit Suisse

Analyst

Could you elaborate a bit more in terms of talking about the start to the spring selling season, so you have traffic up dramatically versus the prior year? Was that coming based on the -- you think that was across the board you are seeing it specifically in the new communities that were opening up, I'll start there I guess?

Jeffrey T. Mezger

Management

We always have higher traffic counts in openings, Dan and many of our communities where we are opening, especially in Coastal California the traffic numbers are very, very strong. So that some, but we did open communities in the first quarter last year in Coastal California as well so it’s some of it but overall we’re seeing traffic lift across the system. I think it was system wide through January and February, February in particular it accelerated, so to me it’s the start of a fairly normal kick off to the spring selling season.

Daniel Oppenheim - Credit Suisse

Analyst

Great and I guess wondering about in terms of the trends over the course of the three months, do you see on a year-over-year basis, do you see February much stronger in terms of the orders relative to December or January?

Jeffrey T. Mezger

Management

You want to answer?

Jeff Kaminski

Management

Sure, yes the trend in the quarter was a typical seasonal trend. I mean we had strengthening sales and higher numbers in February than we did in January and January outpaced December. Year-over-year I think we are flattish actually in February and had a very, very strong January but last year it was more of component what happened last year, I would say than this year in the trending during the quarter and opening new communities and things like that. So it gets very specific for us when we look at it or view it we like to look more at the division level and even more specifically at the community level to see where the strength is coming from. So we are pleased with the openings we had during the quarter and we are pleased with the performance. Like I said earlier we opened 29 new communities and that certainly helps out to have some fresh land on the books and some fresh communities opened during the quarter and we are pleased with it and we are going to continue to drive community openings for the remainder of the year.

Daniel Oppenheim - Credit Suisse

Analyst

Great, and then last question just, you talked about the accelerated community growth in the second half of the year, will lot of it be focused on the west as it was here in the first quarter?

Jeff Kaminski

Management

Right, on a percentage basis we expect the west and the southwest regions to be the highest increases on a percentage basis in net community count by the end of the year. Central and southwest were both also expecting double digit increases in averages but really focused mostly on the west and southwest as far as count as pure numbers and as well as percentage increase.

Daniel Oppenheim - Credit Suisse

Analyst

Great, thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Robert Wetenhall from RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Hey, this is actually [inaudible] filling in for Bob. Thanks for taking my question. Touching back on what was just discussed about the west region having some for the biggest increase in community count and then just looking at deliveries also, is there a reason to believe that once that turns around and you start to have a pick-up in the west that it could be a big driver of gross margin improvement, so are margins in the west higher than they would be elsewhere given your focus on your higher income buyer there?

Jeffrey T. Mezger

Management

Well overtime certainly the California margins have been higher, certainly in dollars if not also in percent and a lot of it has to do with what the mix is at that point in time. How many California communities come online and how many in Texas and it will be the blend of the book at that time but it typically our California communities do carry a higher margins. I referred in my comments to an inflection point and if you think about it we've been battling through for the last few quarters, this dynamic were we were called out with the old, and in with the new. And we sold through and delivered through many communities in inland California while the coastal communities were taking longer to bring online. And then when they come online you are not going to let him run fast. You meter out your sales so it was a unit comp that dropped and also a revenue comp that would be… What's now occurring is this inflection point where we've powered through that bridge and we bridged the gap of the trough here and now you will see our trajectory go up in California and community comp growth, unit growth and a significant ASP growth. So we have a nice combo going forward that will bring a lot of gross margin.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

That's helpful. Thank you. And then last question here on with the increase in community count and the rising prices it looks like you are well positioned for the spring selling season. Now looking pace, sales pace and are you comfortable with the current sales pace across the portfolio or are you going to try to drive that higher.

Jeffrey T. Mezger

Management

Yes and yes, we call it optimizing the asset and if it's a location that has a high lot count that you can replace or run a higher unit sales pace typically those are in the less land-constrained areas. And if it’s [at Wisden, South Cal] or Berryessa up in San Jose, we're going to meter the sales out because it's what I call a jewel box, you can't replace it. So you are going to mine it for all the margins that you can get. Historically typically we're on much higher sales paces than you've seen from us in the last few years. And in part we have to get back to profits. We've done that. We're at a scale that can sustain profits and right now it's about improving our profitability per unit and our top line. So we'll stay focused on the balance of best price for best pace in each community.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Great, thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Stephen Kim from Barclays. Your line is open.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Hi guys this is actually [Freda Joan] on for Steve. Thanks for taking my question. The first question I had was on land spend, which was pretty high in the quarter at about $354 million I mean that's about 80% of revenues I am just noticing the cadence of land spend that you had in 2013 when it was similar like an 80% type of home building revenues in the first quarter, kind of moderating throughout the year, how can we read into what land spend is likely going to look like in '14? Are you going to spend less or more than the $1.2 billion you've done?

Jeffrey T. Mezger

Management

Right, I think when you look at we were about $10 million higher than last year in the first quarter and a lot of it just comes down opportunities and the pace of development. So as we're phasing it out and we're looking at new land acquisition opportunities we don't specifically look to spend a higher percentage in one quarter over the other. Obviously we have full year budgets that we work to but as far as the quarter-over-quarter look it's more about opportunities. Once we have the lands on the books we look to aggressively develop it. During the quarter we had over $130 million at development investment contained in that number which outpaced last year and I guess that was a significant difference between 2014 first quarter and 2013 first quarter where we actually had higher development spend in last year and lower acquisition spend. As far as pegging it for the full year, we're going to continue to see how markets develop for us and what it looks like out there and the external environment. The land spend that we did put in place last year as you noted over $1.1 billion was more than double what we had spent in 2012 and that was done with intent, as we wanted to get our community count growth back on-track and as we saw the right opportunities in the marketplace. So we'll continue to monitor that as we go. At this point obviously based on our first quarter spend we are very successful in identifying opportunities and very optimistic about the growth that, that will provide to us in the future.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay, great. And just turning attention towards sort of ASPs, the average square footage increased about 8% year-over-year. So you could say that maybe your price was in the range of 5%, looking through where ASPs can go throughout the balance of the year how much do you think is going to be more on the size more on the mix versus the price?

Jeffrey T. Mezger

Management

Right, it’s a difficult metric I mean to compare in that terms, because what we’re talking about doing is opening a significant amount of new communities this year, which we’ll be delivering out in to the third and fourth quarters as well as some of the new communities that we had opened in the last year that are really determining the ASP. So a lot of its just mix related. As I mentioned during the prepared remarks we do believe that we will still have a high single-digit or low double-digit year-over-year increase in our ASP by the time it wraps up for the full year and we’re off to a really good start with a 12% increase in the first quarter, but as we continue to emphasize we do believe a majority of our increases really coming from our community positioning and where we’re placing communities getting a higher income buyers, they are selecting more options in our studios, the underlying land is obviously more expensive, they are paying higher price points for their product and its helping to generate better margins and obviously continuing to enhance and accelerate our ASP. So that’s how we really see the rest of the year shaping up.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay, great, thanks.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jack Micenko from SIG. Your line is open.

Jack Micenko - Susquehanna Financial Group

Analyst

Hi, guys. Thanks for your update on the mortgage JV, thinking about that going forward, as that JV closes is it right to think that structurally there may be a different profit model for that business on your income statement going forward or will it be more from a traditional sort of caps rate gain on sale margin adjustment or is there? Should we think about maybe more financial service revenue as that JV comes through later in the year?

Jeffrey T. Mezger

Management

Jack, we definitely have shared that in the past, as our expectation that it’s a revenue and profit driver. It's been a little frustrating to try to get through the regulatory maze and it reminded me of how difficult it is to be a mortgage company as Nationstar has been working on it. But once it’s fully deployed and capture rates are up it will be a profit and revenue driver. Probably more importantly for me as the operator, it will give us a better delivery stream because they perform well. In the venture we expect capture rates to go up and they are far more predictable than many of the other lenders that our buyers have selected. I don't know if you want to add any other color on that, the financial impact on it.

Jeff Kaminski

Management

No, I think as we’ve talked about modeling in that. We used to have a joint venture obviously, 50:50, very similar to how this going to be structured. As Jeff mentioned, it is very much related to closings and if you look back at when we have a joint venture model that we were employing in our business it will be very similar to that.

Jack Micenko - Susquehanna Financial Group

Analyst

Okay great. And then just to get clarify you definitely think you’re going to be able to reverse all the DTA evaluation allowance this year or that is how we should think about it?

Jeffrey T. Mezger

Management

We said a significant portion of it and between utilization for the remainder of the year, so obviously we’re offsetting some of the DTAs as we are having profitable quarters for the remainder of the year and then we believe we have a very significant reverse in the fourth quarter and I think that’s quite a proper way to look at it. There may be another piece that we’ll take back in 2015 as we continue to evaluate but we are not done with all the précised calculations but we are very confident in a significant reversal by the year end.

Jack Micenko - Susquehanna Financial Group

Analyst

Okay thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Adam Rudiger from Wells Fargo. Your line is open.

Adam Rudiger - Wells Fargo

Analyst

Thanks for taking my question. There is so much focus on weather and given your footprint I'm guessing you were less adversely impacted by weather than your peers. So my question is do you think your quarter was relatively clean of weather if that’s a right word to use?

Jeffrey T. Mezger

Management

Adam there was some weather impact in a few of our businesses but not much all, our Colorado business was hurt a little and DC. Other than that maybe some extent Raleigh, but those are lesser percentage and I think it reinforced due to the majority of our business being in the Sunbelt where less exposed to weather. I think it did rain three days in the quarter in SoCal. So we may have lost an hour or two of production but it’s a nice footprint to have when it comes to the winter time of the year.

Adam Rudiger - Wells Fargo

Analyst

Okay. My second question is more a theoretical one, as it relates to first time buyer you know I know that you said about half your business was first time buyer but it was higher priced first time buyer so maybe not the traditional first time buyer that everyone is talking about that's absent from the market. So the question relates to the availability of product for the more lower income first time buyer, is all the discussion about the absence of that buyer related to a supply is there no product or do you think it’s demand driven and how do you think that plays out in terms of driving the recovery the next couple of years?

Jeffrey T. Mezger

Management

Well, one of the things that we have demonstrated in our business model is the ability to move to where demand is and with the mortgage headwinds and the lack of job growth and everything else that we dealt with through this housing cycle and now into recovery the typical first time buyer got recap, they were out of the market so there is no demand there and we found a way to go flex up and change product and move as quickly as we could to where the demand was. In my view in order to have a full sustained typical housing recovery we have to get the traditional first time buyer back. It will take job growth and it will take fulsome mortgage underwriting, when that occurs if the demand is there and things pencil we can quickly go right back to meeting the demands of that buyer while at the same time sustaining the business that we’re now putting together that’s working so well. We’ll flex and go where the demand is.

Adam Rudiger - Wells Fargo

Analyst

So you think that you and your some of your other competitors have also moved up price a bit so do you think when there’s job and the demand comes back at a price point of the industry can pan quickly, offer that kind of supply that’s needed?

Jeffrey T. Mezger

Management

Yes.

Adam Rudiger - Wells Fargo

Analyst

Okay. Thanks for taking my questions.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today’s question and answer session. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Mezger for closing remarks. Please go ahead.

Jeffrey T. Mezger

Management

Okay, thanks again everyone for joining us on the call. We’re excited about our momentum and where our year is heading and we look forward to sharing progress as the year unfolds. Thank you and have a great day.