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Transcript
OP
Operator
Operator
Good morning. My name is Krista, and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Kinross Gold's Fourth Quarter and Year End Results Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Thank you. I would now like to turn, the conference over to Chris Lichtenheldt, Vice President of Investor Relations. Chris, you may begin your conference.
CL
Chris Lichtenheldt
Analyst
Thank you, and good morning. With us today, we have Paul Rollinson, President and CEO, and from the Kinross Senior Leadership Team, Andrea Freeborough, Claude Schimper, Will Dunford, and Geoff Gold. For a complete discussion of the risks and uncertainties, which may lead to actual results differing from estimates contained in our forward-looking information, please refer to Page 2 of this presentation. Our news release dated February 14, 2024. The MD&A for the period ended December 31, 2023, and our most recently filed AIF, all of which are available on our website. I will now turn the call over to Paul.
PR
Paul Rollinson
Analyst
Thanks, Chris, and thank you all for joining us. This morning, I will provide an overview of our fourth quarter and full year results, discuss our outlook for the business going forward, and review our achievements in the area of ESG. I will then hand the call over to Andrea, to discuss our financial performance and guidance, Claude to review our operating performance, and Will to discuss our projects, exploration initiatives, and resource update. Looking back, we have a strong 2023, and successfully delivered on our targets and are well-positioned for another strong year ahead. Our operations are performing well. Our projects are advancing on schedule and on budget. Our exploration program, is delivering value. We are generating substantial free cash flow, and our balance sheet is in excellent condition, and continues to delever. With respect to the fourth quarter, we had a strong finish to the year, resulting in full year production in the top half of our guidance range, and costs at the low end of our guidance range. A strong performance on costs was primarily driven by transparency on inflation that was incorporated into our targets. Our focus on operational performance, with strong production contributing to cost results and favorable trends on grade within our portfolio as we ramped up higher grade operations. As always, we will remain focused on cost control in 2024. However, we are expecting a modest increase, which Andrea will discuss shortly. The strong performance on cost was underpinned by our three highest margin assets, Tasiast, La Coipa and Paracatu. Tasiast and Paracatu, are two top tier assets together accounted for approximately 1.2 million ounces. Adding in La Coipa, these three assets accounted for just over two-thirds of our production and an AISC of approximately $1,000 per ounce. At Tasiast, we deliver record…
AF
Andrea Freeborough
Analyst
Thanks, Paul. This morning, I'll review financial highlights from the quarter and full year, provide an overview of our balance sheet, and discuss our guidance and outlook. As Paul noted, we finished the year with production of just over 2.1 million ounces, exceeding the midpoint of our guidance range. In the fourth quarter, we produced 547,000 ounces. Q4 sales of 565,000 ounces were slightly above production, due to timing. Our Q4 cost of sales of $976 per ounce and AISC of $1,353 per ounce, were higher, compared to the prior quarter, as expected, primarily due to lower production at Paracatu. Full year cost of sales of $942 per ounce was below the $970 guidance midpoint, driven by strong cost performance across the portfolio. Costs of Paracatu were on plan in 2023, and are expected to increase in 2024 due to lower planned production. Margins were strong at $998 per ounce sold in Q4 and $1,003 per ounce sold for the full year. Our adjusted earnings per share was $0.11 in Q4, and $0.44 for the full year. Adjusted operating cash flow, was $407 million in Q4, and approximately $1.7 billion, for the full year. Attributable CapEx, was $298 million in Q4, and $1.05 billion, for the full year. Attributable free cash flow in Q4, was $117 million, and for the full year was $560 million. Turning to the balance sheet, we finished the year having further strengthened our financial position. After repaying $190 million of debt in the quarter, we ended the year with approximately $350 million in cash and approximately $1.9 billion of total liquidity. Our net debt improved to $1.9 billion at year end, from $2 billion at Q3. We repaid the $50 million outstanding on our revolving credit facility in October, and then the $140 million balance…
CS
Claude Schimper
Analyst
Thank you, Andrea. Last quarter, I began by sharing the details of our Homegrown Safety Excellence Program, where we are taking a genuine bottom-up approach, to fostering our safety culture. The program has now been delivered to over 6,000 employees and business partners worldwide, with 44 different nationalities participating. We are proud of this program and will be relentless, in keeping safety as our core piece, of our operating philosophy. Moving on to our operations, as Paul highlighted, we delivered a strong end to the year, achieving our full year targets, on both production and costs. I'm pleased to say, this is a testament to the strong focus, and dedication to operational excellence that, our team demonstrated over the course of the year. Our two cornerstone operations, Tasiast and Paracatu, had another year of significant production. These two assets provided over half of our ounces and drove meaningful cash flow for our business. In 2023, we continued to advance our projects at Tasiast and La Coipa, which was successfully completed prior to the New Year. At Tasiast, we achieved record full year production 621,000 ounces, benefiting from strong throughputs and grades. In the fourth quarter, the mill demonstrated high throughput over the prior quarter, reaching a quarterly average rate of approximately 22,000 tons per day, driving a strong final quarter of production of 161,000 ounces. Cost of sales of $645 per ounce in the fourth quarter, was the lowest in the portfolio. Tasiast was our lowest cost producer in 2023, with a cost of sales of $661 per ounce. We are anticipating another strong year from Tasiast, with production guided to be around 610,000 ounces, as higher throughput is offset by a lower planned grade. Margins are anticipated to be robust again this year, with cost of sales expected to…
WD
Will Dunford
Analyst
Thanks, Claude. I'll start by expanding on Round Mountain, provide updates on Curlew, Great Bear, and our exploration initiatives, before ending with a few comments on our year-end resource update. At Round Mountain, in addition to our ongoing work on the open pit phases, that Claude discussed, we continue to focus on exploring and studying our higher-grade, potentially higher-margin underground opportunities at Phase X and Gold Hill. We are progressing well with the exploration decline at Phase X, having developed 1,475 meters to-date, which is over half of the planned development for the initial exploration decline. This has put us in closer proximity to the target mineralization for Phase X, allowing us to commence exploration drilling along the periphery of the target earlier this year. This drilling has already hit a high-grade, narrow vein with coarse, visible Gold, something we have seen throughout our history at Round Mountain, which has ultimately led to positive reconciliation, and we are pleased to see this trend continuing at depth. We will continue development of the exploration decline in parallel, with the exploration and definition drilling, and will be in a position to start definition drilling of the primary Phase X targets by Q2. At Gold Hill, infill drilling from the bottom of the open pit and exploration drilling from surface continue to advance as planned. Stepping back, we remain excited about the underground opportunities at Round Mountain. We see the potential for Phase X to come online in late 2026, or early 2027, and Gold Hill to come online towards the end of the decade, extending production at Round Mountain into the next decade. Moving to Curlew Basin, our results continue to trend well and support further work on the asset. Through 2023 exploration, we increased the size of the inferred resource by…
PR
Paul Rollinson
Analyst
Thanks, Will. After delivering on our commitments in 2023, we intend to carry this momentum into 2024. Our business is well-positioned to deliver another strong year, both operationally and financially. And looking forward, we remain excited about our future. We have a strong production profile. We are generating significant cash flow. We have an investment-grade balance sheet. We have a competitive dividend. We have an exciting pipeline of exploration and development opportunities, across several attractive jurisdictions. And we are very proud of our commitment to responsible mining that continues, to make us a leader in ESG performance within the industry. With that, operator, I'd like to open up the line to questions.
OP
Operator
Operator
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Ralph Profiti from Eight Capital. Please go ahead.
RP
Ralph Profiti
Analyst
Thanks, Operator. Good morning, Paul and team. I want to ask a question on a Great Bear. Are there any indications that you can give us on how this ore body into the PEA is holding up at higher cut-off grades?
PR
Paul Rollinson
Analyst
Yes, we can. I mean, you can see some of it in the cross-sections [tweets] and the long sections that we've provided in the presentation today. But, we are seeing some pretty high-grade areas coming in at depth. And that's reflected in the fact that our new resources and inferred have come in at about 6 gram a ton. Sorry - we are continuing to see what we were hoping to see, which is the continuation of that orogenic system at depth. And changing the cut-off grade for the open pits is fairly insensitive, just given that it is a very high-grade ore. And on the underground, it's the same thing where we've got bulkier mining, so - we can be reasonable with our cut-off grades.
RP
Ralph Profiti
Analyst
Got you. Okay. Thanks for that. And maybe this is a question for Andrea. Just looking at the 2025 and 2026, my understanding was that those are going to be higher stripping years at Tasiast as you get into West Branch. And so just wondering, what are some of those potential offsets in that non-sustaining category that has this sort of trailing off?
AF
Andrea Freeborough
Analyst
Sorry, in 2025 and 2026?
RP
Ralph Profiti
Analyst
Correct.
AF
Andrea Freeborough
Analyst
We'll have to get back to you on that.
PR
Paul Rollinson
Analyst
Yes, we'll get to you on that one perhaps - I mean, it's out there a bit. You're right, it is a higher strip, but there's a lot of moving pluses and minuses there. So let us take that offline and come back, yes.
RP
Ralph Profiti
Analyst
Okay, thanks for that. And maybe just potential timelines on approvals at Curlew. Maybe this is further out as well, but it's an interesting project given proximity, jurisdiction, and grades. Just wondering if you look out a little bit, potentially when we could see sort of the next milestone on studies?
PR
Paul Rollinson
Analyst
Yes, as you know, the majority of the permits are in place. Already, for example, the restart of mining, haulage, milling. Really what we're focused on is getting the approval to put a dry stack on top of the existing tails. Again, we're working that through the system. I don't have a definitive timeline on that, but as I say, we're in good shape across the board. That's the last sort of chapter. And we're pursuing that at the same time, as we're continuing to grow, the resource and get into the economics. It's all moving in the right direction, but I don't have a definitive answer on the permitting.
CS
Claude Schimper
Analyst
Yes, I think we're really focused on value engineering and trying to optimize the underground design, and the economics and the margin. So, the timeline is more around us internally making a strategic decision. The permitting is progressing well, and right now we don't believe that's going, to be the critical time. We want to get some more drilling in these high-grade areas, and get some of that higher margin material, into the mine.
RP
Ralph Profiti
Analyst
Got you. All very interesting. Thanks very much.
OP
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Josh Wolfson from RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
JW
Josh Wolfson
Analyst
Yes. Thanks very much. On the reserve side of things, for Paracatu, was there any more information available about some of the changes in some of the numbers reported there?
CS
Claude Schimper
Analyst
Yes, the change is there that you saw, you would have seen that we had a bit of a decrease in the reserve beyond just depletion. And that really came also as a result of some value engineering work that we did there, really focused on near-term cash flow. A big piece of those ounces that, we removed from the reserve, is higher strip material around the periphery of the ore body. We were required to do the stripping, and it was impacting grades, to the lower end in the near term in the next few years. So we pulled that out of the plan. It takes out some ounces at the very end of the life of mine, but it increases our cash flow, over the next few years materially. So that's the majority, of what's happened with those ounces.
JW
Josh Wolfson
Analyst
Okay. And as for Great Bear, I might be asking this a bit too early before a bulk sample has been done, but a lot of drilling has been done here. I'm assuming an increased understanding of what the LP underground is sort of looking like. Any thoughts on what the blended, diluted grade would be in a mining situation for that area?
CS
Claude Schimper
Analyst
Yes, we did indicate that we do put stope shapes around our resource, even our inferred resource. So, I know not everyone always does that, but that does put in some internal dilution. So we are - what we're seeing with those stope shapes coming in to the new inferred resource is around 6 grams a ton. Overall, on average, the underground grade, if we looked at the inferred and we stripped out the open pit, it's over 5 grams a ton. So, we'll continue to see what happens, at depth and how that directionally moves.
JW
Josh Wolfson
Analyst
Got it. And then, last question. Just looking at La Coipa, I saw a bit of additions there, maybe not net of depletion, but some incremental. I'm just trying to understand what the options are that companies weigh in between extension there, and when we could see some of the potential upside in reserves, or maybe the other bigger development opportunity there, if that's something that could be pursued in the next five years. Just trying to understand how we should think, about this mine in the next three or four years? Thank you.
PR
Paul Rollinson
Analyst
Again, I'll start and maybe Will can chime in. As you know, we have a large land package. We have several oxide pits. And we've got visibility of production through '27. Really, it's a bit of a permitting exercise to continue with laybacks in the pits where we're operating and at the same time, we've been doing some drilling on some of those satellites. So, our vision for La Coipa, is to see production continue out towards, the end of the decade. And in parallel, we are starting to ramp up our baselines, as it relates to Lobo Marte. So, the vision for Chile is continued oxide pit expansion permit, strategy with Lobo coming into the queue in parallel to transition from La Coipa to Lobo, around the end of the decade.
WD
Will Dunford
Analyst
Yes, and you can see in our reserve and resource tables that we've got a fairly substantial resource there. And that's when we talked earlier about our focus on, that sequencing over time to try and convert, from our resources into reserves. This is a massive focus for us at La Coipa so that in that '27 to 2030 range, we can pull some of those resources into reserve through the permitting, and the geotech work and the drilling work that we're doing.
JW
Josh Wolfson
Analyst
Thank you very much.
OP
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Greg Barnes from TD Securities. Please go ahead.
GB
Greg Barnes
Analyst
Yes. Thank you. Question for Paul and Andrea regarding the capital cost estimates going out to '25 and '26, $850 million and $650 million. And I understand that doesn't include several projects, but should we be thinking around $1 billion a year to sustain that 2 million ounce, production rate going forward? Is that the right number? I think you've talked about that in the past?
PR
Paul Rollinson
Analyst
Yes, that's exactly right. Like that's how we think about it. So again, we have the capital in place to deliver the 2 million that, we put into guidance. But as we look out beyond that guidance, we'll be looking to bring projects in, sanction things in the pipeline. And so, I would expect that, as we do that, our capital will come back up, into the $1 billion range, as we continue to move out. We've often said, generally about $1 billion of capital total sustaining a growth at a 2 million run rate. So that's the right way to think about it.
GB
Greg Barnes
Analyst
Okay. Great. That's it for me. Thank you.
OP
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Carey MacRury from Canaccord Genuity. Please go ahead.
CM
Carey MacRury
Analyst
Hi. Good morning. Maybe just back on Great Bear. So with the new resource, are you thinking about the PEA any differently? And is that still going, to be more focused on the open pit, or is there enough underground critical mass now, that is to be more balanced between two?
WD
Will Dunford
Analyst
Yes - it'll be focused on both the open pit and the underground. Obviously, as you guys can see in the resource, there's a strong open pit starter for the first substantial production. But certainly what we've seen in the underground and what we've released, will allow us to have an underground component, in that PEA as well.
CM
Carey MacRury
Analyst
And you're still thinking about 10,000 tons a day? Okay. And then maybe just another quick one. Just in terms of the quarterly sequence of the year, we normally see the Q1 drop off. Any guidance you can give on what we should expect with Q1 and maybe the H1 and Q2 split?
AF
Andrea Freeborough
Analyst
On production?
CM
Carey MacRury
Analyst
Yes.
PR
Paul Rollinson
Analyst
What was the question, Carey?
CM
Carey MacRury
Analyst
Just the quarterly sequence. Typically, we see strong Q4s and lower Q1s. Just some guidance you can give us there?
AF
Andrea Freeborough
Analyst
Yes, sure, Carey. For this year, for us, I think in our remarks, we talked about the second half being higher and that's with Manh Choh coming on. But I would say, the first half is somewhere in the 48% to 49% of our full year production. And then the second half, is above 50%. And I think Q1, Q2 are sort, of more even than, we've seen in the past. So it's not kind of a step up each quarter all year, but more of an H1, H2 story this year.
PR
Paul Rollinson
Analyst
So, we do typically have a seasonality to the year. I mean, where, for example, heaps in Alaska percolate, a little slower in the winter. And things heat up and things move a little better. And as you know, we get into the rainy season in Brazil, and that prevents us from buying in the lower portions of the pits. So, we tend to mine in higher areas with lower grades. So, there is a seasonality generally in our business. You can't sort of take Q1 times four. But we try to, give a flavor for that, as we move through the year.
AF
Andrea Freeborough
Analyst
I would just add that, obviously, free cash flow follows that trend as well. But on top of that, we've got some kind of annual tax payments that, come in the first half too. So more free cash, in the second half than, you'll see in both first quarter and second quarter.
CM
Carey MacRury
Analyst
Okay. And then maybe one last one, just on debt reduction. Should we be expecting some level of this or should we be thinking higher than that debt reduction?
AF
Andrea Freeborough
Analyst
On debt reduction, yes I mean, we're focused on repaying debt. In 2023, we repaid $360 million and $190 million of that was in Q4. So, if you think about similar production in 2024, similar CapEx, and costs a little higher, might be a little bit lower than that. But at $2,000 gold somewhere in the $300 million range, is sort of where we're thinking.
CM
Carey MacRury
Analyst
Great. That's it for me. Thanks.
OP
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Lawson Winder from Bank of America. Please go ahead.
LW
Lawson Winder
Analyst
Hi. Thank you very much, operator. And good morning, Kinross team. Thanks for taking my questions. A couple from me. First of all, on the cost assumptions, Andrea, I apologize if I missed it. But did you know what the inflation assumption, was for 2024 versus 2023? And then what was the realized 2023, inflation versus the budget of 5%?
AF
Andrea Freeborough
Analyst
Sure. So overall, I'll start with the look back. So looking back at 2023, inflation was around, sort of in line with our expectations. So, we talked about a 5% inflation factor in 2023. And that's where we came in. Looking forward, we're seeing labor and contractor costs, continue to increase, while overall inflation, is at least starting to return, to normal levels. And in our cost guidance in 2024, we've got somewhere around a 4% inflation factor on 2024 costs.
LW
Lawson Winder
Analyst
Okay. And that's with the oil price assumption being down about 17% versus the 2023 assumption?
AF
Andrea Freeborough
Analyst
Our oil price assumption is, I think, 85% for 2024.
LW
Lawson Winder
Analyst
Okay. Got it. I also wanted to revisit the CapEx question just a little bit, to think about how to bridge the gap from $850 million to $1 billion in 2025, so that $150 million. And then, how to bridge that $350 million gap from $650 million, to $1 billion in 2026. So in 2025, would that be Phase X that, would be bridging that gap? And then that additional $350 million in 2025, which project should we think about spending, bridging that gap?
CS
Claude Schimper
Analyst
Obviously, these are all in study phase, keeping in mind. But the Phase X is something where the CapEx there is essentially just continuation of mining. So that is one that would be an earlier sequencing, and we could be spending money on that in 2025. Curlew, the same thing, that's somewhere we could be spending some money in 2025 and into 2026. GBR, we will continue to spend money on CapEx in a few different areas before initiating the main project. And the La Coipa extensions as well, by 2026, we could be spending money there.
LW
Lawson Winder
Analyst
Okay. That's very helpful. And then if I could just revisit the seasonality question on the guidance, just particularly for Brazil, would you be comfortable providing a breakdown in terms of like percentage of the 510,000 ounces in H1 versus what percent you'd expect in H2 for Paracatu?
AF
Andrea Freeborough
Analyst
Well, we're getting that, Lawson, just to correct what I said earlier, if our oil price assumption is actually $75 in our guidance.
LW
Lawson Winder
Analyst
Okay. Okay. Thanks for doing that. Thanks for correcting that. That's what I thought. So that would be down 17% from the 90 last year. But obviously, we realized the price was only $77 or $78 last year. So virtually, oil price assumption is in line versus last year, just slightly off, and then 4% inflation?
WD
Will Dunford
Analyst
So Lawson, to answer your Paracatu breakdown, it's about 45% in the first half of the year and 55% in the back end. Obviously, the last quarter is the one where we really bang it out in Brazil. First one, we have the rainy season, and then where we are in the pit this year, it's just a little bit beyond in the first half.
LW
Lawson Winder
Analyst
Okay. Thank you all very much.
OP
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Anita Soni from CIBC. Please go ahead.
AS
Anita Soni
Analyst
Good morning, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. And most of them have been asked and answered. But one question I still did have, I just want to confirm, the new material that was added in Dixie on the underground, by my calculations, it was a little north of 6 grand per ton. Is that correct?
PR
Paul Rollinson
Analyst
That is correct, yes.
AS
Anita Soni
Analyst
Okay. And that was all underground, right?
PR
Paul Rollinson
Analyst
Yes, the emissions were overwhelmingly underground.
AS
Anita Soni
Analyst
Right. And then secondly, a little bit more on the capital number. I know in 2025, you should stop spending really on Fort Knox with the, sorry, with Manh Choh coming into production. I kind of don't understand, what would come in there to fill that gap. So is there, can you just remind me which of the projects that, could be turned on in 2025?
WD
Will Dunford
Analyst
In 2025, we will also still be spending on Phase S. We'll be finishing up the stripping there. And then the Round Mountain underground, again, if we make a decision to move forward with that, we will just keep going with development. So we could be spending meaningful dollars on underground development in that year. And the Curlew extension, if we see what we want to see in these underground extensions, we will start to spend on infrastructure there.
AS
Anita Soni
Analyst
Okay. So just to understand, I mean, right now you've got a production profile that's 2.1 and then 2 flat really for the next couple of years for sure. And obviously, with additional projects, can maintain the 2 million ounces. But the CapEx numbers that you have right now that have $1 billion, $850 million and then $650 million that fully funds the 2 billion. Anything to improve over and above that, is to extend mine life beyond 2026. Is that correct?
PR
Paul Rollinson
Analyst
That's right. That supports the 2 million guidance capital that we've put out. As the capital comes up, it will extend the 2 million beyond guidance.
WD
Will Dunford
Analyst
Both Curlew and Round Mountain have potential to start contributing in 2027. I think what we see in the outcomes of the studies.
AS
Anita Soni
Analyst
Okay. All right. And then just another quick one that I was wondering about at Tasiast, sorry, the costs are coming in pretty well. Can you just talk about the inflationary pressures that you're seeing? Are they lower than the rest of the regions? And is there more inflation you're seeing in sort of U.S. and Chile? I guess - the question is the breakout of inflationary pressures by region?
AF
Andrea Freeborough
Analyst
I can start sort of at a high level. I think, as I said, we're seeing the biggest increases continuing on labor and contractors. And probably the highest is in South America, so primarily Brazil. And then Alaska would be second, along with Nevada. So I think it's fair to say that Tasiast is kind of on the lower end in terms of inflation.
AS
Anita Soni
Analyst
Okay. Right. And then my more detailed questions about the US Ops, I'll take offline with Chris. Thanks
OP
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Jackie Przybylowski from BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
JP
Jackie Przybylowski
Analyst
Thanks very much for taking my question. And I know this has been sort of answered, but I just wanted to circle back on Great Bear. It sounds like you've got some really good opportunity here, at the LP zone with this AEX decline that you're putting in. And I was wondering, if you could maybe talk a little bit about, as you're working on the studies there, the technical studies, could you maybe talk about your thinking about potential to expand the footprint of Great Bear? Or are you thinking - the size that you've mentioned in the past is already fully optimized, even if there's more to discover there?
WD
Will Dunford
Analyst
We're still kind of centered around that 10,000 ton per day margins for now, in terms of total processing capacity, at least. We're still doing final design engineering around a variety of things, from the overall footprint perspective. But what we're seeing is, what we were hoping to see, which is extensions that indicate that this could be a long life underground mine. But it's not pushing us to drive that throughput higher.
JP
Jackie Przybylowski
Analyst
Okay. That's helpful. So, the way to think about it, with future exploration success at this point is, maybe it offsets grade or adds to life of mine. Okay. No, that's helpful. Thank you. Thank you.
WD
Will Dunford
Analyst
Yes, it adds to life of mine. It adds to grade profile. It's just off at a significant production volume. So, all good.
JP
Jackie Przybylowski
Analyst
Thank you very much.
OP
Operator
Operator
And that concludes our question-and-answer session. I will now turn it back to management for closing remarks.
PR
Paul Rollinson
Analyst
Thank you, operator. Thanks, everyone, for joining us. And we'll hope to catch up with you in-person in the coming weeks. Thank you.
OP
Operator
Operator
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. And you may now disconnect.