Earnings Labs

Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. (KGS)

Q3 2025 Earnings Call· Wed, Nov 5, 2025

$66.15

-0.84%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.

Same-Day

+0.21%

1 Week

+1.06%

1 Month

+6.87%

vs S&P

+5.98%

Transcript

Operator

Operator

Greetings, and welcome to the Kodiak Gas Services Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]. Please note, this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the conference over to your host, Graham Sones. Please go ahead.

Graham Sones

Analyst

Good morning, and thank you for joining us for the Kodiak Gas Services conference call and webcast to review third quarter 2025 results. Participating from the company today are Mickey McKee, President and Chief Executive Officer; and John Griggs, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Following my remarks, Mickey and John will discuss our financial and operating results and 2025 guidance, then we'll open the call for Q&A. There will be a replay of today's call available via webcast and also by phone until November 19, 2025. Information on how to access the replay can be found on the Investors tab of our website at kodiakgas.com. Please note that information reported on this call speaks only as of today, November 5, 2025, and therefore, you are advised that such information may no longer be accurate as of the time of any replay listening or transcript reading. The comments made by management during this call may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the United States federal securities laws. These forward-looking statements reflect the current views, beliefs and assumptions of Kodiak's management based on information currently available. Although we believe the expectations referenced in these forward-looking statements are reasonable, various risks, uncertainties and contingencies could cause the company's actual results, performance or achievements to differ materially from those expressed in the statements made by management, and management can give no assurance that such statements or expectations will prove to be correct. The comments today will also include certain non-GAAP financial measures. Details and reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP measures are included in yesterday's earnings release, which can be found on our website. And now I'd like to turn the call over to Kodiak's President and CEO, Mr. Mickey McKee. Mickey?

Robert McKee

Analyst · Citi

Thanks, Graham, and thank you all for joining us today. I'd like to begin today's call, as we do with all meetings at Kodiak with a safety topic. As we head into the holiday season and prepare to travel and spend time with friends and family, I want to remind everybody that safety doesn't stop at the workplace, whether you're commuting, visiting family or running errands, please avoid distractions while driving. No text or call is worth risking your safety. Please join me in committing to staying focused behind the wheel so we can enjoy the holidays with those who matter most. We had a busy third quarter, delivering solid financial results and executing on several strategic actions to improve the operational and financial outlook of the company while remaining focused on returning capital to shareholders. Let me begin by discussing some of the strategic actions we have taken over the past few months. First, we went live with our new ERP system in August that was delivered on time and under budget. We consolidated several legacy systems into an integrated platform that will increase our visibility with real-time financial and operational information and enable us to deploy multiple facets of AI technology into our everyday business. The implementation of the new ERP system involved a lot of hard work by the team, and I want to thank everyone involved for their dedication to getting this important project over the line. The new ERP system is a foundational step in our agentic AI initiatives. The team is currently working on multiple AI agents across a broad range of processes, including parts sales, customer order handling and supplier and inventory management. We're specifically excited about our tech parts agent, which will assist our field service technicians in locating the right parts…

John Griggs

Analyst · Raymond James

Thank you. As Mickey made clear, we accomplished some really important strategic objectives during the quarter, actions that serve to set us up well for the next leg of returns-oriented growth in the years to come. Let's turn to the quarter's highlights, and I'll start with our Contract Services segment. We generated solid revenue growth in this segment in Q3 as evidenced by a year-over-year increase of 4.5% and quarter-over-quarter increase of 1.2%. Revenue per ending horsepower was $22.75 this quarter, a nice uplift versus the same quarter last year and effectively flat sequentially. We anticipated this outcome, and we called it out on our last quarterly call because we knew we were adding a lot of revenue-generating horsepower during this quarter, but only a portion of that horsepower's revenues. With less new horsepower being set in Q4 and in conjunction with the recontracting rate increases and solid pricing for new units, Mickey already spoke to, we expect to see a nice uptick in the revenue per horsepower metric for Q4. Relative to Q3 of '24, Contract Services adjusted gross margin percentage increased by 230 basis points to 68.3%. The margin improvement is a reflection of the success we've realized in achieving higher pricing per horsepower alongside lower operating expenses per horsepower. We've driven these results through a relentless focus on high-grading the fleet through large horsepower, gas and electric additions, combined with the sale of noncore, low-margin units. And we're habitually rolling out new technology and process initiatives that either reduce costs, defer spend or improve labor productivity or some combination of the 3. In our Other Services segment, we generated revenues and adjusted gross margin in line with our expectations. We've seen a resurgence of contract activity and that, plus our backlog gives us confidence that we remain…

Robert McKee

Analyst · Citi

Thanks, John. Our business model, which generates stable and recurring cash flows is performing well in the current market. The demand outlook for contract compression remains robust, demonstrated by our ability to maintain strong pricing and continued growth in our industry-leading horsepower utilization. Additionally, our new unit horsepower order book is essentially fully contracted for 2026 as we capitalize on the robust outlook for growth in natural gas. Besides the top line growth, we are successfully making steps to increase margins by divesting noncore units and investing in technology to reduce costs and increase uptime. These targeted actions have enabled us to reach new financial milestones across several important metrics. As a result, we delivered year-over-year increases in Contract Services revenue, adjusted gross margin and set a new quarterly record in discretionary cash flow, strengthening our ability to return capital and drive ongoing value for Kodiak shareholders. Thank you for your participation today. And now we're happy to open up the line for questions. Operator?

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. Our first question comes from Doug Irwin with Citi.

Douglas Irwin

Analyst · Citi

I just wanted to start with '26 here. And I realize you haven't given any explicit guidance, but it sounds like you have a pretty good idea of what bookings are looking like into next year at this point. So just wondering if you could maybe provide a bit more detail about how the backlog is shaping up and maybe just high level, how you're thinking about fleet additions and pricing power relative to the last few years.

Robert McKee

Analyst · Citi

Doug, this is Mickey. Thanks for being with us today. Yes, we're not quite ready to give guidance into '26 quite yet. But like we said in our prepared remarks, we're effectively fully contracted out for what we plan on spending for next year. We've been pretty clear about the fact that our plan is to spend kind of roughly 60% of our discretionary cash flow on our growth capital for any given year. And we think that next year ought to be pretty comparable to that. And we have contracts out into the latter parts of next year that ought to be somewhere in that ballpark. So next quarter, when we give official guidance for '26, we'll give that more detail, but we feel pretty good about where we're at right now and set to have continued growth into next year.

Douglas Irwin

Analyst · Citi

Understood. And then my second question, just around M&A. I think so far this year, you've been focused on more kind of smaller acquisitions and divestitures, but it sounds like a lot of the obvious high grading is maybe concluded at this point. So just curious if larger scale M&A is something that's on your radar? And if so, what kind of deals might make sense? And would you maybe even consider stepping outside of traditional compression if the right opportunity presents itself?

Robert McKee

Analyst · Citi

Yes, Doug, I mean, we definitely would consider that. We don't comment too much on potential M&A deals. But I will tell you that the strategic actions that we took this year set us up to be in a position to consider some of that stuff for next year. So we went live with our ERP system, which was a huge step for us to dial in technology and utilize AI going forward as well as the bond issuance that we did that's freed up $1.5 billion worth of availability on our ABL. So as of this quarter, we have a balance sheet that's in a position to pursue some M&A activity if the right opportunity presents itself.

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from John Mackay with Goldman Sachs.

John Mackay

Analyst · Goldman Sachs

Last quarter, you -- we spent a fair amount of time on some of the initiatives you were working on with your customers, kind of sale leasebacks or other kind of similar types of deals. Can you maybe just catch us up on where those sit and how conversations gone so far?

Robert McKee

Analyst · Goldman Sachs

John, good to talk to you this morning. So in Q3, we had a small purchase leaseback transaction that we executed on that was really good for us and helped us grow the revenue-generating horsepower by above that 30,000 horsepower mark. So we've got good conversations with that kind of stuff going on. Nothing -- no big things super imminent right now, but those conversations are happening with customers. And just kind of back to Doug's question that I just answered, right, like the strategic initiatives that we executed on in this quarter with the ERP implementation that allows us to get that real-time financial and operational data at our fingertips as well as the bond issuance freeing up a lot of liquidity for us is those were 2 really important steps as a prerequisite to executing on some larger type of not only M&A, but also kind of like strategic transactions with our customers. So we had to get those steps out of the way first before we could take the next one. So we're excited about the progress we made in the third quarter.

John Mackay

Analyst · Goldman Sachs

Understood. And then going back to your comment earlier around, I guess, you're doing some station construction for some power out in the basin. Can you talk a little bit more about what the opportunity set looks like there for you guys and whether Kodiak could get more kind of directly into the power gen side?

Robert McKee

Analyst · Goldman Sachs

Yes, absolutely. I mean that specific opportunity is one of our station construction deals. We've got a ton of backlog that it looks like for opportunities in our pipeline for that station construction business, a lot of interest in the power sector. And so we are doing a lot of work there. We're gaining a lot of valuable expertise and industry insight there. And if the right entry point presents itself, then we will probably take advantage of it. But nothing to report just yet, but we're doing a lot of work, and we're very interested in the segment.

Operator

Operator

And we'll go next to Connor Jensen with Raymond James.

Connor Jensen

Analyst · Raymond James

I noticed that lead times are back above 60 weeks for equipment, which lines up with what we've heard from others. Wondering if this will potentially lead to higher prices down the road on incremental orders that you could maybe capture through higher prices and just kind of how you're thinking about that dynamic?

Robert McKee

Analyst · Raymond James

Yes. I mean I think lead times are a function of the demand in the industry, right? And so I think you're seeing this -- the industry see an extraordinary amount of demand from not only takeaway capacity increases in the Permian Basin, but significant volume increases that are being projected for natural gas, not only in the Permian, but in other basins as well. So I think you're starting to see this LNG capacity come online and you're starting to see a significant amount of volume increase projections from our customers and others that are saying, man, we need a lot of compression, and we need a lot more of it. So I think that is all going to be positive for pricing going forward, and we expect that we will continue to have positive pricing discussions with our customers.

Connor Jensen

Analyst · Raymond James

Got it. That makes sense. And then a nice job exiting all the international operations focus on the core U.S. market. Is there any cost savings to be had being an entirely domestic business? And how should we think about divestments following this presumably at a lower pace now that you have all the international businesses sold?

Robert McKee

Analyst · Raymond James

Yes. I think going forward, the divestitures will come at a lower pace, now that we've successfully exited Mexico and Argentina. Those businesses were definitely at a lower margin contribution than the standard large horsepower compression that we have that's very, very concentrated in the U.S., especially in the Permian Basin. So we're certainly divesting of lower-margin business there. So I would consider -- I would definitely think that it would be helpful to our overall margin. So -- but it's a pretty small contribution. So it's not going to be a big impact.

John Griggs

Analyst · Raymond James

And I will add to that, this is John, to -- and we called it out in the prepared remarks. It was in our press release. So we explicitly spent about $5 million on professional expenses in the third quarter in SG&A for a business that's now sold. So that's kind of all wrapping up. And so there is a bona fide savings you won't see repeat in the fourth quarter and beyond.

Operator

Operator

Moving next to John Annis with Texas Capital.

John Annis

Analyst · Texas Capital

For my first one, with the new horsepower added this quarter, can you talk about how much of that is electric? I think you may have mentioned around 40% in your prepared remarks, if I heard you correctly. And then just more broadly, has there been any recent changes in your customers' desire to add electric motor drive compression?

John Griggs

Analyst · Texas Capital

Yes. Thanks. This is John. I'll tackle the first piece and then hand it back to Mickey for the customer kind of feedback. So in the third quarter, we added around 60,000 new horsepower and about 40% of it happened to be electric. We also, over the course of the year, have kind of told everybody that about 40% of the total order book for '25 was electric. So that was just a coincidence in terms of the third quarter versus the year. In terms of what Mickey is saying in the future, I'll turn it back to you.

Robert McKee

Analyst · Texas Capital

Yes. I mean I think that you're definitely seeing a little bit of a pullback away from electric-driven compression orders and inquiries coming in. It's just a power problem, especially in the Permian Basin. They're just the lead times for getting power and connecting the grid access is just a problem for people that have aspirations to go to electric. I think those aspirations are still there. They just are looking at shorter-term solutions and that kind of thing that are kind of then the longer-term electric desires that they have. So the power problem is real, and it's kind of shifting some of those customers' desire to go electric.

John Annis

Analyst · Texas Capital

Terrific. For my follow-up, you highlighted robust natural gas demand drivers, including power for data centers and LNG. Can you quantify what portion of your new unit deployments or backlog are directly tied to serving these emerging areas versus traditional wellhead production? And then are there any differences in contract terms, duration or equipment requirements for these applications?

Robert McKee

Analyst · Texas Capital

John, it's really hard for us to quantify what of our -- how much of our compression is going to serve LNG versus data center demand and that kind of thing. Once that gas gets into a pipeline, you never know if that certain molecule is going to support fuel for power for a data center or it's into the Gulf Coast to be liquefied and said to Europe for LNG. So we really can't tell the difference from our standpoint. We do know that there's a lot of demand for natural gas and it all requires multiple stages of compression. It's good for our business. So we see it coming down the pipeline, and we don't see any differences really from those standpoints of contract terms or duration there. So from where we sit in that value chain, it's too early to kind of determine.

Operator

Operator

Moving next to Zack Van Everen with TPH & Company.

Zackery Van Everen

Analyst · TPH & Company

Maybe just going back to the 60 weeks on new equipment. Does that kind of indicate you're already starting conversations with customers for 2027? And would you guys be willing to order some on spec just to make sure you have the equipment when it's needed?

Robert McKee

Analyst · TPH & Company

I would think that the discussions for 2027 will start happening really quickly. We've been pretty busy here so in the last month or so. So I haven't heard about many discussions into '27, although I do know that they're starting to happen. We haven't traditionally ordered equipment on spec, Zach, but -- and to the extent that we can avoid doing so, we will for compression. But there's some things we can do in working with packagers and working with the Cat dealers on making sure that there's engines kind of in the pipeline coming down and that we can have access to. So there are some things we can do to kind of manage our supply chain there without having to really step out on a limb and order full equipment packages on speculation out with that longer lead times.

Zackery Van Everen

Analyst · TPH & Company

Got you. That makes sense. And maybe related to the same question, have you seen contract duration get extended as we see continued rates increasing for customers is when they renegotiate. Has that gone out from the typical 3 to 5 years? Or are you still within that range for most new contracts?

Robert McKee

Analyst · TPH & Company

Most new contracts are still within that 3- to 5-year range. So we are starting to see some interest from some customers that want to term equipment out for longer than that, but haven't gotten too much traction there as we're really more prone to key in on price rather than term for those contracts.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. And we'll go next to Selman Akyol with Stifel.

Selman Akyol

Analyst · Stifel

I just want to go back to the station construction opportunity that you're seeing. And you talked about backlog, and I just want to make sure I understand that. Is backlog opportunities that you've identified? Or is that stuff you've identified and you actually expect to become order and we should expect to see it at some point flow through?

Robert McKee

Analyst · Stifel

A little bit of both, Selman. I think that we probably have more opportunities in our pipeline today than we've probably had in the last couple of years. Now conversion rate on those, I think we expect to be pretty high, but haven't signed, sealed the deal on all of those yet, but we feel pretty good about that business model going forward and the contribution that it's going to have in 2026.

Selman Akyol

Analyst · Stifel

And then as we think about margins, you've talked about divesting lower contributions. You've got your ERP system. You've talked about AI. What should we be expecting margins as we kind of go through '26? Is there still upward pressure to those numbers that you're putting up?

Robert McKee

Analyst · Stifel

I think so. I mean we're not quite ready to guide on '26 what margins are going to look like yet, but we would expect those to be higher than they are today.

Selman Akyol

Analyst · Stifel

Got it. And one last question, if I could squeeze it in. Can you just talk about what the outlook is for other basins besides the Permian? I know the Permian gets all the attention, but seeing any uplift in any others?

Robert McKee

Analyst · Stifel

Yes. Selman, good question. And quite frankly, the bulk of the capital spend by our customers has gone to the Permian Basin, like you said. So we key on the Permian probably more than most people. But I will tell you, there is some uplift in opportunities that we're seeing in some other basins. We've got some really interesting opportunities that we're taking advantage of up in the Northeast as well as in the Eagle Ford as well as in the Rocky Mountains. So we're seeing some of those other basins start to have a lot more interest and activity. So it's a good thing. And we think that certainly from a natural gas standpoint of supporting LNG build-out and data center build-out and that kind of thing, some interest from these other basins is a quality thing for us.

Operator

Operator

And we'll hear next from Eli Jossen with JPMorgan.

Elias Jossen

Analyst · JPMorgan

Maybe just on some of the strong liquidity you guys have and the optionality it creates. I recognize that '26 is pretty filled out, but can you just talk about what makes the most sense to do with that dry powder? I mean, could we think about something bigger in the Power Solutions realm? I know you guys talked about you're looking at those, but maybe just stacking that kind of opportunity set versus some of the M&A that's out there.

John Griggs

Analyst · JPMorgan

Yes, sure. So this is John. I'll tack it, and I'm sure Mickey will chime in, too. So look, you asked a broader question. I am going to say that our capital allocation framework that we've been consistently applying since we went public is still the one that we're going to stick to, and that's an algorithm that kind of looks at that 3% to 4% growth in horsepower on a year-over-year basis for several years, generates upper single digits EBITDA growth for several years in a row, and that should translate into a similar, if not slightly higher discretionary cash flow growth rate going forward as well, too. We want to honor the 3.5x long-term leverage target that we've kind of set forth. And so we will always want to protect that balance sheet. But then we've got this great pile of discretionary cash flow that we have the optionality and what we're going to do stuff with. We're still seeing wonderful returns. We always talk about kind of the new horsepower sets that we see and generating really, I guess, high-quality returns well above our hurdle rates on new horsepower. So we'll continue to do that. And then as we think about M&A, Mickey answered a lot of those questions at the beginning. So we've gotten so many of these things that have kept us pretty focused post going public, post-CSI integration, exiting the international operations, exiting the small horsepower business, implementing the new ERP system that were really real geared up to just take advantage of this kind of, I'll call it, new management capacity that we have for the next chapter of Kodiak's growth. So we're going to look at all opportunities within compression that fit our kind of pistol, which is going to be the large horsepower, high-quality assets in the right basins. And then as we think about power, how can you not think about power in a world that we live in? Our customers ask us to do it. We're in the electric power business. We have relationships with all of the people that are buying their own distributed power that are concerned about what's going to happen to the grid and stability. So it's conversations that we'll continue to have going forward. And then the last is that opportunity to work creatively with our customers to potentially do the purchase leaseback type transactions. Those would be wonderful ways to grow our business without growing industry capacity to a degree and can make great financial sense for investors. So it's really -- it's -- we're sitting really well for 2026 to try to think about, once again, the next chapter of Kodiak's growth that is in addition to this awesome long-term business model that we have in large horsepower U.S. compression.

Elias Jossen

Analyst · JPMorgan

Yes. Awesome. Really appreciate the color there. And then maybe just kind of back to some of the 60-week lead times and the contracting that you're seeing. Can you just talk a little bit about pricing trends, particularly in the Permian? I know those continue to move up and to the right, but just what you guys are seeing on the pricing front and how you expect that to evolve in the future?

Robert McKee

Analyst · JPMorgan

Yes, Eli, we don't expect things to change that much. I think we've still got the ability to command leading-edge pricing that we have for the last couple of years. We've repriced a good bit of our fleet, but there is still a significant piece of our fleet that we haven't repriced. And so we expect kind of the existing price book of the existing fleet to continue to move up over time as we adjust some of the legacy contracts that we had that are 3 or 4 years old. And then we expect to continue to command kind of leading-edge pricing on new unit deployments that we have coming out the door, too, because, quite frankly, with the inflation and increased cost of operations on that stuff, we have to command a higher price to command the same kind of margins that we've had. So we'll be focused -- laser-focused on those, but we think that the pricing situation remains pretty status quo, and we think we can still drive pricing on new units and the existing fleet.

Operator

Operator

Anything further, Mr. Jossen?

Elias Jossen

Analyst · JPMorgan

I leave it there.

Operator

Operator

This now concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the floor back over to Mickey McKee for closing comments.

Robert McKee

Analyst · Citi

All right. Thank you, operator, and thank you to everyone participating in today's call. We look forward to speaking with you again after we report our results for the fourth quarter.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines, and have a wonderful day.