Earnings Labs

Kinder Morgan, Inc. (KMI)

Q1 2018 Earnings Call· Thu, Apr 19, 2018

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Welcome to the Quarterly Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] I would like to inform all parties that today's conference is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Rich Kinder, Executive Chairman of Kinder Morgan. Thank you. You may begin.

Richard Kinder

Analyst · JPMorgan. Your line is open

Okay. Thank you, Sheila. And welcome to our first quarter analyst call for both KMI and KML. Before we begin as usual, I'd like to remind you that today's earnings releases by KMI and KML and this call includes forward-looking and financial outlook statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934 and applicable Canadian provincial and territorial securities laws, as well as certain non-GAAP financial measures. Before making any investment decisions, we strongly encourage you to read our full disclosures on forward-looking and financial outlook statements and use of non-GAAP financial measures set forth at the end of KMI's and KML's earnings releases and to review our latest filings with the SEC and Canadian provincial and territorial securities commissions for a list of important material assumptions, expectations and risk factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated and described in such forward-looking and financial outlook statements. With that out of the way, let me make just a few comments before turning the call over to Steve. First of all, on a very positive note, our board today made some important personnel decisions, which I believe will benefit KMI for years to come. We promoted four really outstanding people: Kim Dang to President of the company; Dax Sanders to Executive Vice President and Chief Strategy Officer of KMI; David Michaels to Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Anthony Ashley, currently, VP and Treasurer to Treasurer and VP of Investor Relations. I will remain Executive Chairman and Steve will remain CEO. But we're very pleased with those outstanding individuals, and we look forward to many good years of performance. Now let me talk about - a little bit about our results in a broad sense.…

Steven Kean

Analyst · JPMorgan. Your line is open

Thanks, Rich. I'm going to update you on KMI performance highlights and then turn it over to Kim as usual to take you through the financials. Following that, I will update you on KML and again, turn it back to Kim who's still into Dax Sanders on today's call. So that she can review KML's financial performance with you then we'll take your questions on both KMI and KML. Starting with KMI. We had a strong quarter at KMI with positive signs for full year performance. KMI as a whole generated DCF per share of $0.56 for the quarter, an increase of about 4% year-over-year. Both natural gas and the CO2 segments were above planned and solidly up year-over-year of 6% to 7%, respectively. We continue to execute well on our growth projects, we placed $700 million worth of expansions in the service during the quarter. And we continue to find attractive new opportunities and added $900 million worth of projects to the backlog during the quarter. The vast majority of the backlog additions are in our Natural Gas segment. Turning to the Natural Gas segment. Our transport volumes were up 10% year-over-year in the first quarter and gas gathered and crude gathered volumes were up 1% and 3%, respectively. The 10% increase in the transport volumes is on top of an 8% year-over-year increase that we had in the fourth quarter of last year. So two quarters in a row of strong year-over-year growth. On the gathering, there was pluses and minuses. We're up in the Haynesville on our gathered gas volumes and on our Hiland assets in the Bakken, we're up on both gas and crude gathered volumes, and those are partially offset by lower gathered volumes in the Eagle Ford. We also continue to see strong pull…

Kimberly Dang

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open

Thanks, Steve. Okay, today, we're declaring a dividend of $0.20 per share, as Rick said that the 60% increase over last quarter consistent with our budget, as well as the plan we laid out for everyone last July. Based on our current stock price, the $0.20 per quarter or $0.80 to annualized results have a very attractive dividend yield of over 5% with significant coverage. As Steve said, we had an outstanding first quarter, well above our budgets and nicely above last year. For the full year, we expect to meet or exceed our DCF and EBITDA budget. First, today, let me start with the GAAP numbers, and then I'll move to Bcf, which is the way that we look at and judge our performance. Net income attributable to common stockholders for the quarter was $485 million or $0.22 a share, which is an increase of $84 million in total or $0.04 per share, respectively, with both increases being over at 20% increase versus the first quarter of last year. As you can see from looking at the income tax expense line item on our GAAP income statement, almost all of this increase results from lower income tax expense, primarily due to the reduction in the tax rate associated with the new change - the new tax law. But if you adjust for certain items, which are for this quarter, the first quarter of 2018, an immaterial $4 million expense, but were a benefit of about $30 million in the first quarter of 2017. The change in income tax expense accounts for a little less than 60% of the change, as opposed to the entire change with the remaining change generated by stronger operating contribution. Adjusted earnings, which excludes these certain items changes are up $118 million or 29%. Adjusted…

Steven Kean

Analyst · JPMorgan. Your line is open

Okay. Now we're going to switch to KML. Last week, we announced that the KML had a decision point on the Trans Mountain expansion project. We announced the suspension of non-essential spending and that under current conditions we would not put additional KML capital at risk. We also said there's no readthrough from this in terms of our willingness to invest in Canada. We have invested in Canada, British Columbia, as well as Alberta, and we expect to continue investing. But as we said then, it's become clear this particular investment may be untenable [ph] for a private party to undertake. The events of the last 10 days have confirmed those views. We pointed out there are significant differences between governments, those differences are outside of our ability to resolve. We are continuing our stakeholder discussions between now and May 31 and we're looking for a way forward on this project. All of that is the same as what we said on the call last week, nothing new there. However, discussions are underway and as the Prime Minister said on Sunday, we're not going to undertake those discussions in public and we do not intend to provide additional updates on the status of those until we reached a sufficiently definitive agreement or the discussions have terminated. So again, not much update, but discussions have commenced. With that, I'll turn it over to Kim to talk about financial performance at KML during the quarter.

Kimberly Dang

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open

Thanks, Steve. Let me process my comments as Dax has, in prior quarters with the caveat, while we are offering quarter-over-quarter comparison. Those comparisons are of limited value given that we're reporting a quarter where KML was owned by the public versus a quarter where it was wholly owned by KMI. During those periods, prior to the IPO, there were significant shareholder loans in place that generated FX, most of which is unrealized and intercompany interest with KMI that are not reflective of the true earnings power of KML. Therefore, we would ask you to focus on the actual results to 2018 and how they compare to our published budget. Quarter-over-quarter will be more starting in the third and fourth quarters of this year when we have comparable quarters all post IPO. Now moving to the results. Today, the KML board declared a dividend for the third quarter of $0.1625 [ph] per restricted voting share, or $0.65 annualized, which is consistent with our budget and previous guidance. Earnings per restricted voting share for the first quarter of 2018 are $0.10, drive - derived from $44 million of net income, which is down approximately $2 million or 5% versus the same quarter in 2017. In the first quarter of 2017, we recognized a foreign exchange gain associated with the intercompany loans. These loans were settled at the time of the IPO and therefore, that gain does not recur in 2018. Adjusted earnings, which include certain items, the most significant of which is the FX gain I just mentioned, were approximately $44 million compared to approximately $40 million for the same quarter in 2017. This increase is largely associated with a decrease in interest expense given the extinguishment of the intercompany loans and increased AEDC associated with the spending on the Trans…

Steven Kean

Analyst · JPMorgan. Your line is open

Okay. Sheila, we're ready to take questions on KMI and KML.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Jeremy Tonet with JPMorgan. Your line is open.

Richard Kinder

Analyst · JPMorgan. Your line is open

Hi, Jeremy. How are you?

Jeremy Tonet

Analyst · JPMorgan. Your line is open

Good. Good afternoon. Thanks. Just want to see, with regards to the FERC matters, if you had talked to the commissioners there? And do you have any sense if there could be any kind of reconsideration of what they've done here? It seems like some of the comments, maybe the employee expects some of the actions to happen in the marketplace given what they did during open market hours?

Steven Kean

Analyst · JPMorgan. Your line is open

Yeah. Look, I think even in public testimony statements as recently as yesterday, there was a recognition I think, that a lot of comments are going to have to be reviewed and a lot of input is going to have taken in, in order to make the right decisions here, and so we're encouraged by that. We’re obviously reaching out as our industry is reaching out in every way that it can to make sure that our views and our facts are known to the commission as they're figuring out how to proceed here. And it's really - I mean, it's extremely important, I think, for the commission to take into account the results, the benefits, but also the other implication of a long-standing policy of creating competition in competitive markets, intrastate pipeline transmission, they succeeded, they've succeeded in that. But that is a fundamentally different environment than, say, a traditional regulated utility and that needs to be adequately taken into account as they think about how to use and exercise their discretion. And so we're encouraged by their openness to the input, and we intend to give them plenty of it. I didn't mean that disrespectfully.

Jeremy Tonet

Analyst · JPMorgan. Your line is open

Thanks. Just a couple of quick follow-ups and just want to see, when you were talking about the moratorium, was that the FERC is prohibited from reopening where you have moratorium, am I correct in understanding what you said there? And also just as far as how the supplies of liquids pipeline, I was wondering if you might be able to expand a little bit there on the refined products side?

Steven Kean

Analyst · JPMorgan. Your line is open

Yes, so the settlements really are applying to the gas pipeline side of the house, wherein ongoing rate case on SMPP has been going on for a very long time. And on the gas taking - talking specifically about gas, settlements don't bind subsequent commissions, but they are generally honored and there's good language in FERC orders about settlements and rate moratoriums or moratoria, that are in place where they tend to respect them. The parties sit around and negotiate an outcome and they do so in good faith. The commission, along with the customers and the pipeline and typically those settlements are - typically, those settlements will bind the private parties, if you will, to their terms, but can't legally bind the commission. But again, the practice has been for the commission to honor those.

Jeremy Tonet

Analyst · JPMorgan. Your line is open

Great. Thanks. And then just one last one, if I could. With regards to the Permian Pipeline, the second one that you're talking about there, that's interesting to hear. Just wondering if you could talk about the competitive dynamic as far as pursuing this project, if you look to bring that to the same market or different path. And just how you think, I guess, Waha basis moves over time here in the effective benefit you know, KMI in the interim, as it seems like even GCX isn't going to be online for a while here in the basis is really kind of an upside, I don't know if there's other smaller brownfield things that you can do in the interim to take advantage of that?

Richard Kinder

Analyst · JPMorgan. Your line is open

Well, look you put your finger right on the fundamentals, but I don't want you to leave the call being all too interested in what we said there. This is a very early kind of discussions. But I think it is the view in that market, that a second pipe really is needed. And I think it's clear that certain producers with significant production coming online have been holding, if you will, holding commitments back in order to help underwrite a second pipeline. And so it does look likely that something will be built. We have the same advantages that we talked about when we talked about Gulf Coast Express, which is there's some and with the right make-up partners, there's good upstream connectivity, and we have great downstream connectivity to get that gas to the markets that are really booming right now, which is along the Texas Gulf Coast, both for Mexico exports, as well as power and pet-chem demands and LNG. And so we think we've got - that we have some advantages in that, but it's in the very early stages, so don't get too interested just yet, I would say. But I think you're right, the fundamentals are strong and I think they support a second pipeline getting billed. The gas is growing rapidly in the Permian, and it is a low cost, if not a negative cost to produce or sure [ph] primarily aiming at NGLs and crude out there. And so finding a way to deal with a gas or not to have flare is a very important and people, I think are beginning to - shippers are beginning to - are rapidly catching up to that and thinking about ways to relieve those constraints. In the meantime, the smaller bottleneck, debottlenecking that's kind of what we're doing on the EPNG investments that I mentioned, we're looking at some things on NGPL as well, and we will continue to look for those as well take away from EPNG as these markets – as these suppliers are hunting markets.

Jeremy Tonet

Analyst · JPMorgan. Your line is open

That’s all, very helpful. Thank you for taking my questions.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Shneur Gershuni with UBS. Your line is open.

Richard Kinder

Analyst · UBS. Your line is open

Hi, Shneur.

Shneur Gershuni

Analyst · UBS. Your line is open

Hi. Good afternoon, everyone and congratulations to everyone on the promotion. Just a quick follow-up to Jeremy's question there. Could GCX be brought into service you know, given all the demand that everyone is talking about?

Richard Kinder

Analyst · UBS. Your line is open

No, I think, I mean, we’re certainly trying to do everything we can to get it online as soon as possible. But I think our fourth quarter of '19 to the Gulf Coast is really most realistic timeline.

Shneur Gershuni

Analyst · UBS. Your line is open

Okay, great. Just a couple of questions. First, starting at a high level, I think we've all beaten the FERC to death at this point. I was just wondering if you can talk about returns on capital deployment as you sort of think about your business over the last couple of years and kind of you've upped your CapEx a little bit, and you're looking at another project. When one looks at capital returns, are you achieving the returns that you've kind of outlined in the past? Has the erosion in commodity prices at CO2 kind of masked some of those returns? I was wondering if you can sort of talk about that a little bit?

Steven Kean

Analyst · UBS. Your line is open

Yes, good question. We have done well on our project execution and Kim actually went through that, and you'll see it look back from 2015 through 2017 on capital projects and how they came out as a multiple of the year two EBITDA, meaning once the project is fully up and running. And we've done very well, and we've done similar backward looks at our gathering and processing investments, et cetera. The new investments that we talked about this quarter at about 6 time rate. And so I think we're doing quite well there. And you're right, there's been some deterioration. If you look over that whole period, 2015 to 2017, there's been deterioration in the underlying CO2 business because of lower commodity prices primarily. There have also been some contract rollouts. There is also been some JVs and assets divestitures that we've undertaken in order to improve the balance sheet. So we've retired over $5.8 billion of debt since late in 2015, and we've improved our multiple from 5.6 to 5.1 time. So we are, as Rich said, we're using our cash, deploying it effectively on projects, and we're using our cash to de-lever, as well as return value to shareholders and I think we've done that effectively over the last two to three years.

Shneur Gershuni

Analyst · UBS. Your line is open

And kind of two quick follow-ups. One, you were just talking about the return of capital and so forth. You've bought back some shares during the quarter. At the same time, you've upped your CapEx estimate for this year. How should we think about your discretionary cash flow that you outlined, I believe it was about $565 million at the Analyst Day in terms of its ability to continue buying back stock. And I guess, compare with the fact that you're suggesting that you can beat your guidance or projected plans for this year?

Steven Kean

Analyst · UBS. Your line is open

Well, if you look at the situation, of course, we're very clear that we have that number that we showed you, that $550 plus million of free cash flow after funding all of our capital expenditures for the year and obviously, after paying the dividend. Since that time, we have bought back $250 million worth of stock, and so you could deduct that. And then as the capital moves around, the total expansion CapEx, which as Kim said, now rose to 2.3 instead of 2.2, you would also deduct that. Our projections which show we will still, after everything we've done, all the capital we have in the plan and all the stock buybacks we've done thus far, we are still nicely positive in terms of actual cash generated after we pay for all these things internally.

Unidentified Company Representative

Analyst · UBS. Your line is open

And so in terms of how to use that cash is the same things we talked about at the beginning of the year and Rich talked about earlier in the call, which is we'll look at what's of the best use, whether it's an incremental project or the return of additional value to shareholders through a share buyback or further delevering, and it's nice to be in this position.

Shneur Gershuni

Analyst · UBS. Your line is open

Great. And one final question. During, I think, it was the last quarter or two quarters ago, there was a lot of talk about Double H and the potential for NGL repurposing. But at the same time, the production level for accrued in the Bakken has continued to grow and other takeaway pipelines have been filling towards capacity. Do you see a trend of improving crude production and heading towards Double H and therefore there's no real need to really think about an NGL repurposing or is that still on the table?

Steven Kean

Analyst · UBS. Your line is open

Yes, we don't have put together an NGL repurposing project, but the second part of what you said is also true, which is production is rising in the Bakken. And so some of our discussions around that pipeline have turned toward how do we get more of that production into Double H, and we've been able to successfully buy and attract some volumes, including truck volumes over to Double H, and so that's been a positive There's still a bit of capacity overhearing to work through in the Bakken, but the production there has been very promising from a gas NGL and oil standpoint. So prospects, I'd say, are improving there.

Shneur Gershuni

Analyst · UBS. Your line is open

Great. Thank you very much, guys.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from the Danilo Juvane with BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Richard Kinder

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open

Good afternoon.

Danilo Juvane

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open

Good afternoon. Congrats to everyone who received the promotions today. My first question is on the buybacks. You've done $500 million thus far, you have $1.5 billion still left. Are you done for this year? Or should we expect you to continue to buying back more shares this year?

Kimberly Dang

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open

I mean, as we just went through the free cash flow, we have a little bit of free cash flow still remaining. I think at this point, we're going to look and probably wait a little bit to see what the capital projects look like and see if there's any more of those. But depending on what happens with CapEx, there may be the opportunity to buyback more shares and or pay down debt.

Danilo Juvane

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open

Thanks for that. And given where the stock is sort of trading right now, have you thought that all evolved or may be deploying that elsewhere perhaps just paying down debt, instead of buying back shares?

Richard Kinder

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open

Well, I think we will look at that on an opportunistic basis. I think the important thing here, and I hate to keep beating the same drum, but we're in a unique and very positive situation in funding all of our expansion CapEx with internally generated funds, paying the dividend and still having sizable excess cash to use, and we're going to consider that very carefully. And as I said in my opening remarks, we want to be fiscally responsible in how we handle that capital. So we will look at it, just amplifying what Kim said, we would look at it on an ongoing basis to figure out what makes those most sense. And look, we've improved - since we scatter out, as we’ve improved our balance sheet considerably. As Steve said, we've paid down well over $5 billion worth of debt. We are now, as Kim says, we targeted 5.1 as debt to EBITDA ratio at the end of 2018. We will meet or beat that, we think, and so we're moving in the right directions, but we would like to get it lower obviously. And so that's a weighing process between delevering and buying back shares.

Danilo Juvane

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open

Thanks for the color Rich. Moving on to the backlog. I noticed in the release that you're now deploying organic growth ex Trans Mountain at 6 times. I know that previously, you said that, that number was 7.5 times and 6.7 I think, is this improvement that you've made a function of you just being able to deploy capital more efficiently, can we get some color into that dynamic?

Steven Kean

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open

We look at every project individually, and so we want to get the highest return we can get that the market will pay. And the - and so we will look at, we'll look at the underlying risk on the project and will demand a higher return or we'll get as much as the market will bear. We have, I think, the numbers you were talking about is more like 6.5 and 6.7 times. It's kind of toggled around that. I wouldn't read anything different into the fact that this slate - particular slate of projects that we're talking about is at 6 times. We're applying the same criteria we've been applying for several years now, which a couple of years now, which is elevated return criteria well above any reasonable calculated cost of capital and we'll try to get absolutely as much as we can from the market. And so long as we are clearing by a substantial margin our cost of capital, we'll deploy that capital if it's the best use of that cash. We've targeted at 15% unlevered after-tax return, but we don't reject anything we come in and discuss it, right? Some things are better than the 15% unlevered after-tax return have too much risk associated with them, and they don't make the cut. Some things that are below 15% but have derisks with long-term reservation-based contracts, we relax that 15% and we just continued - we have continued on that path.

Danilo Juvane

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open

Thanks for that. Last one for me. What was the CO2 CapEx number…

Kimberly Dang

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open

$91 million.

Danilo Juvane

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Jean Salisbury with Bernstein. Your line is open.

Richard Kinder

Analyst · Bernstein. Your line is open

Hi, Jean.

Jean Salisbury

Analyst · Bernstein. Your line is open

Hi, good afternoon. I had a few questions about the Permian. So one more on gas. On your existing gas pipeline out of the Permian, is there any room at all for expansion through compression or is this it?

Richard Kinder

Analyst · Bernstein. Your line is open

Yes, I mean, certainly some of the projects that we're doing on EPNG are those types of projects, very minor CapEx, squeezing out additional capacity from our existing network intrastate, I think were largely fairly filled out and that has a lot to do with why we're involved in GCX. So I would say those are really the two main areas. We've also balanced some opportunities off NGPL and some of that has been executed on, and we are pursuing a bit more as well. So I think all of those are very low cost, high-return opportunities, and we're pursuing every bit that we can.

Steven Kean

Analyst · Bernstein. Your line is open

And then we've seen - and it's been in small chunks so far. But people looking for any outlet out of the Permian, including our Trans Colorado system, even giant [indiscernible] have seen some of the effects from the growth in the Permian basin. So that's not expansions, that's existing capacity. So filling up kind of all the nooks and crannies [ph] coming out of the Permian to get to a different market.

Jean Salisbury

Analyst · Bernstein. Your line is open

Okay. And can you put any numbers at all, I guess, in terms Bcfd on how much more you can actually get out on El Paso and NGVLs? Or it’s too early to say?

Steven Kean

Analyst · Bernstein. Your line is open

Yes, that's hard to say. It's kind of - as you can tell from the map, it's kind of a network out there. So it depends just on what installations you could put where, whether it's back pressure regulators, which are very cheap or compression, which is more expensive and other connections or things like that. It's a network.

Jean Salisbury

Analyst · Bernstein. Your line is open

Sure. And then I believe you and [indiscernible] operate or maybe used to operate a rail terminal in the Permian? Can you confirm if you still have that and what's the crude by rail loading capacity available is if you do?

Steven Kean

Analyst · Bernstein. Your line is open

Ask any longer and I think generally speaking in the Permian, there's not significant current crude by rail unit train capacity. So there's manifest capability, but a manifest cargo capability but not unit train capability, is that right? Okay.

Jean Salisbury

Analyst · Bernstein. Your line is open

And then one last one. I think you touched on this when you discussed the hedges. But you hedged your EOR production with WTI, but do you have crude transport out of the Permian? Or do you mostly receive a Midland price for your barrels and are kind of exposed to that spread?

Steven Kean

Analyst · Bernstein. Your line is open

We do have transport out of the Permian, including with our wind [ph] pipeline assets, which takes a significant amount of our production to Western Refining in El Paso. But we also, as part of our hedging program, we hedge quality and locational differentials. So we've hedged for 2018, we're at about 68%, I think, of mid-cush [ph] hedged?

Kimberly Dang

Analyst · Bernstein. Your line is open

71.

Steven Kean

Analyst · Bernstein. Your line is open

71% of mid-cush hedged and we're continuing to add to that position as we go through 2018.

Jean Salisbury

Analyst · Bernstein. Your line is open

That’s very helpful. That’s all from me. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Darren Horowitz with Raymond James. Your line is open.

Richard Kinder

Analyst · Raymond James. Your line is open

Hi, Darren. How are you doing?

Darren Horowitz

Analyst · Raymond James. Your line is open

Hi, Rich. Good afternoon. And congrats to everybody on the promotions. Steve, my first question is on CO2. Do you guys have a rough estimate of the cost or attune profile per barrel in order to monetize this incremental transition zone barrels versus in smaller fields? Because I know you talked and you guys had put out some slides on the after-tax internal rate of return, but on a risk-adjusted basis, I'm just wondering how to think about return on investment going forward with how you allocate those additional dollars?

Steven Kean

Analyst · Raymond James. Your line is open

I'll start, and Jesse will finish. So the - one of the great things about the transition zone development is that we can - it is sitting below the area that we are already developing with CO2. So that when we develop a project, we go hit the traditional CO2 flood zone and exploit that, but with a little bit of deepening and sometimes we can even use existing wellheads, wellbores, for that deepening. We can access transition zone barrels. And so what happens Darren is we get both. We get - we get it from our traditional harvest area, as well as we pick out incremental barrels from the transition zone in those places where we found that. And so far, we found it in a number of places. And so I think roughly speaking, it's like 28%, 72%, 72%, 70-30 call it of traditional CO2 flood recovery with another 30% transition zone coming from that deepening. Is that about right, Jesse?

Jesse Arenivas

Analyst · Raymond James. Your line is open

That's right.

Steven Kean

Analyst · Raymond James. Your line is open

That makes it capital-efficient, that's the bottom line.

Darren Horowitz

Analyst · Raymond James. Your line is open

And how much of that, if any, is built on the $1.6 billion growth backlog forecasts from 2018 out to 2022? Because I know that you guys have already experimented on what five transition zone wells in the budget this year is two, is that correct?

Richard Kinder

Analyst · Raymond James. Your line is open

That in terms of development.

Jesse Arenivas

Analyst · Raymond James. Your line is open

There is very little of that is associated with the backlog. So this is very early, and we're still delineating the field so there's - it's a very little of that $1.7 billion.

Steven Kean

Analyst · Raymond James. Your line is open

And coming out in CO2, in particular, and also gathering of processing, that capital moves around to chase the best opportunities.

Darren Horowitz

Analyst · Raymond James. Your line is open

So, Steve, as this evolves theoretically more focused on the transition zone going forward, based on those rate of returns that you guys have discussed, how do you expect the aggregate segment return on investment to evolve over the forecast period within which you're going to spend that $1.6 billion?

Steven Kean

Analyst · Raymond James. Your line is open

You're beyond any update that we try to do, Darren, we're not there yet.

Darren Horowitz

Analyst · Raymond James. Your line is open

Okay. If I could just one final question for me on Elba. What's the expected timing of the liquefaction capacity between initial and service in the third quarter of this year and when you guys reached 10 liquefaction units by the middle of 2019? And also how do we think about the timing of the remaining capital spend over those four quarters?

Steven Kean

Analyst · Raymond James. Your line is open

You want to speak?

Thomas Martin

Analyst · Raymond James. Your line is open

So, yes. I mean, you have the timeline correct. The first unit will be online in the third quarter and it's approximately 30 to 45 days sequentially from that point. So that gets us kind of end of the late second quarter or late third quarter of 2019.

Steven Kean

Analyst · Raymond James. Your line is open

And as you probably recall, the return on that or the economics on the liquefaction development are heavily weighted to Unit 1. And so Unit 1, we expect will be coming on and followed within roughly the sequence time laid out by Units 2 and 3 starting in the third quarter. We'll not get into the third quarter, but Unit 1 is expected to get in, in the third quarter.

Darren Horowitz

Analyst · Raymond James. Your line is open

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Keith Stanley with Wolfe Research. Your line is open.

Richard Kinder

Analyst · Wolfe Research. Your line is open

Good afternoon, Keith.

Keith Stanley

Analyst · Wolfe Research. Your line is open

Hi, good afternoon. Just wanted to clarify on the growth backlog. The $900 million addition in Q1, that does not include Gulf Coast Express that was already in the backlog, is that correct?

Steven Kean

Analyst · Wolfe Research. Your line is open

You are correct. We put that in, in the fourth quarter update that we shared in January. But that's just on top of that.

Keith Stanley

Analyst · Wolfe Research. Your line is open

Can you just give color on may be one or two of the largest addition to the backlog in terms of the projects and the timing of them coming into service? I think some of the other opportunities you've mentioned around the Permian are a little smaller in terms of capital?

Steven Kean

Analyst · Wolfe Research. Your line is open

Right. Tom, do you have a rough…

Thomas Martin

Analyst · Wolfe Research. Your line is open

CNP [ph] gets about $500 million, and then the interstate projects across, I guess, really three different regions, so another 300.

Keith Stanley

Analyst · Wolfe Research. Your line is open

Okay…

Thomas Martin

Analyst · Wolfe Research. Your line is open

Again, of the 900, 820 is natural gas. So that's overwhelming in the Natural Gas segment.

Keith Stanley

Analyst · Wolfe Research. Your line is open

Got it. Okay. One, just on Trans Mountain. One of the principles you laid out pretty clearly is the need for certainty to construct across British Columbia. When you think about some of the discussions on potential financial arrangements with the federal government, can that help address that criteria that one criteria or do you also need some type of specific action or change separate from financial support to give you more confidence you can build across BC?

Steven Kean

Analyst · Wolfe Research. Your line is open

Yes, there are really two separate things. I mean, there needs to be a way, most of the project and most of the investment is in British Columbia where the government is in opposition to the project and has look for and found ways to incrementally regulate it. And that is an issue that, in our view needs to be resolved or addressed in order to be able to successfully construct in the province. And so we think of this two separate or related things.

Keith Stanley

Analyst · Wolfe Research. Your line is open

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Dennis Coleman with Bank of America. Your line is open.

Richard Kinder

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open

Good afternoon, Dennis.

Dennis Coleman

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open

Good afternoon to you Rich. Thanks. And my congrats to everyone there on the promotions. A couple for me please. Steve, I wonder if the - back to the FERC issue, I guess, one comment I want to just dig a little bit into. You talked about is this being a time consuming process sort of at the end of your statement there. And my recollection is the commission, when they were making these decisions, sort of were thinking that these would be a fairly quick process. I want to say they talked about it being done by as early as the fall of 2018. I wonder, maybe if you can just talk about the differences or compare those two views and maybe give some scale of how you think about the timing and how long this will take?

Steven Kean

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open

Right, so the FERC has laid out a specific schedule in three or four tranches of filing of these 501G forms, right, and so that's pretty well defined. But that's just the beginning. There's a lot more and for reasons I said earlier, I mean, these forms, I think, are going to be less informative, particularly on the issue of over earning and people are expecting because there are some assumptions built into those instructions that we believe conflict with frankly, what we think a commission is ultimately likely to do. So there is a process of information gathering that's on a very firm timeframe. There is still the whole note for itself, which is a proposed rule and a separate but related notice of inquiry, which is an earlier step even in the process that has to be worked out, and that's the process within which we'll be filing comments and making our case known and seeking some modifications to the rule, the proposed rule. And then there are there processes themselves, rate proceedings themselves, and those are expensive, they're time consuming, and that's why we have some confidence around the idea that this is going to ultimately play itself out over time.

Dennis Coleman

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open

Okay, so the idea of a 130 pipelines all getting done by the fall is not realistic? In terms of the 501G filing themselves, they have to be filed, and I thought it was a 30 day process. Is that seems like you're indicating that there's some variance there?

Steven Kean

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open

No, there's a phased-in and they've listed specific entities and what wave they're in so there are specific dates for filing a 501G for each individual regulated system.

Dennis Coleman

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open

Okay…

Steven Kean

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open

Four separate ways.

Dennis Coleman

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open

Okay. Thanks for that. One quick question on the leverage number. You say, Kim, that you'll be 5.1 times or potentially below and I just - I want to just clarify that a little bit if I can in terms that's on the existing budget, that doesn't include any assumptions about Trans Mountain going forward or not? I think when you may be announced a couple of weeks ago if there was some indication that it would be 2 times lower if that doesn't proceed?

Kimberly Dang

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open

Right. So what we've assumed in the 5.1 times or better is a similar but updated assumption that we had in our budget, which is we spend it at a reduced rate through May, and then the spending would ramp up. If Trans Mountain were terminated then we think longer term, not this year, but longer term, because you have incremental spending and would have incremental spending in future years if you pursue the project longer term, there will be a 20 basis point reduction versus what we would have thought if the project went forward in 2019.

Dennis Coleman

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open

Got it. Okay. Thanks for that. Just one last one for me. In the KML release, there was some discussion about lower rail loadings in the quarter from Canada. I wonder if you just might talk a little bit about that with the wide bps [ph] that surprised me a little bit.

Steven Kean

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open

Its rail service related. The service has been - vary a bit more in that area and the Imperial has been negotiating directly with the CN and the CP for improvements in that. And we have seen an uptick as the quarter progress, but it was down significantly throughout the quarter. We hope that, that will improve as we go forward here.

Richard Kinder

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open

It's not because the barrels don't want to move.

Dennis Coleman

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open

Right. That's what surprised me. Anyway, that's weather-related or any particular reason or just poor service?

Steven Kean

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open

It was all poor service related. And remember, that facility was all 100% take or pay related, so it didn't have as big a financial impact, but we would like to see the barrels delivered.

Dennis Coleman

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open

Okay. That’s it from me. Thanks, everyone.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Robert Catellier with CIBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Richard Kinder

Analyst · CIBC Capital Markets. Your line is open

Good afternoon, Robert.

Robert Catellier

Analyst · CIBC Capital Markets. Your line is open

Good afternoon, everyone. Hi. I just wanted to ask a couple of questions that came out, first of all, on Trans Mountain. While I respect the fact that you're not negotiating publicly, but I want to inquire about the possibility that any financial agreements with either Alberta or the federal government might result in shareholder dilution or any less exposure to the Trans Mountain project upside or is this primarily a risk mitigation discussion similar to a surety bond on where shareholder upside might remain intact?

Richard Kinder

Analyst · CIBC Capital Markets. Your line is open

Yes, Robert. Look, I appreciate the interesting additional color. We're interested too. But there's really nothing more to add there. We have outlined two principles, and I'm just going to restate there has to be a way to build through BC and there has to be a way to protect our shareholders and we are in discussions, and those are the principles that we would be looking to preserve.

Robert Catellier

Analyst · CIBC Capital Markets. Your line is open

Okay. So you haven't taken anything off the table, I gather then, any possibility?

Richard Kinder

Analyst · CIBC Capital Markets. Your line is open

We didn't say that. We just said we're in negotiations.

Robert Catellier

Analyst · CIBC Capital Markets. Your line is open

Okay. Since then you've answered most of my operating question, so I'll just ask one on the promotions. Congratulations to Dax and everyone else. I'm just curious, Dax, obviously will continue his KML responsibilities, but as far as I can tell, your press release - about David Michaels. So I'm wondering if he's going to continue his KML responsibility as well.

Dax Sanders

Analyst · CIBC Capital Markets. Your line is open

Right now, the IR responsibilities for KML were under me, now they'll be transitioned to Anthony Ashley, who's our Treasurer currently, and is today promoted from Treasurer and Vice President of Investor Relations.

Robert Catellier

Analyst · CIBC Capital Markets. Your line is open

Okay. And then just finally. Are these changes the timing is it just coincidental with the news on Trans Mountain, or is there any readthrough there?

Steven Kean

Analyst · CIBC Capital Markets. Your line is open

No, no, there's no readthrough. There's no readthrough if at all. And Robert, I want to confirm you're correct, Dax will continue as Chief Financial Officer of KML.

Robert Catellier

Analyst · CIBC Capital Markets. Your line is open

Okay. Congratulations. Thanks, guys.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Robert Kwan with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Richard Kinder

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open

Robert, how are you doing?

Robert Kwan

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open

Good. How are you doing?

Richard Kinder

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open

Good.

Robert Kwan

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open

Just wanted to ask on the Canadian M&A potential, and I'm wondering, first, do you need resolution on Trans Mountain before you really look in earnest on the M&A front? And then when you decide to get at it, can you just talk about the different type of assets you might pursue. Would they have to be similar to what KML has right now, would they have to be similar to what KMI has or could you potentially get into a new platform for kind of the entire enterprise?

Steven Kean

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open

Robert, on the first part of that, we are in a period of considerable uncertainty, obviously, depending on how this comes out of the overall project. Now we've defined that, we've closely defined that period in part because it creates a lot of uncertainty for our investors. We've closely defined it, and we've said what we're looking for but there's no question, it's uncertain. And therefore, makes it difficult for -- to evaluate M&A activity. Once we get a point in clarity, the kind of assets that we've always expressed interest in KML, that is Western Canadian midstream assets. It's still be what we would be looking at and looking for. It's a - it's not a large group of players there, but there are some very capable players with good midstream assets. And as you know, we have a limited debt on this entity, and so it is something that we want to look at. But I just think realistically, you've got to let things settle out on the process that we're undergoing right now first.

Robert Kwan

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open

Understood. I guess, Steve, you started - you started - you were talking about players versus specific assets. So I guess I'm also wondering, if I can recall within the agreement between KMI and KML, KMI actually had the right to pursue corporate or publicly traded opportunities. So can you talk about whether that was more theoretical and that the intention absolutely is for publicly traded entities and based on Western Canada to be within KML? Or how should we think about that?

Steven Kean

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open

KML is the entity through which we would be investing in Western Canadian midstream assets of the type that we already have, already own and know how to operate, which you would include other things that KMI owns and operates, similar types of assets and operations. So we've been very broad about that, but if the intent is and was that the KML would be the vehicle to invest in those opportunities in Western Canada.

Robert Kwan

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open

Got it. And if I could just finish with the terminal side, Q1 was a little bit weaker. You talked about the rail movements, which sounds like from others that’s improved. I'm just wondering with holding, are you still holding the 2018 terminals guidance despite the shortfall in Q1? And how do you think you kind of pickup of the rest and - head to the rest of the year?

Steven Kean

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open

Yes, I think you're asking specifically about terminals on KML? I think where our expectation is will come in, in line with...

Dax Sanders

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open

The big decrease was at [indiscernible] which is down $3.5 million, and it was broken down by sulfur, which was one less asset, we think that will catch-up at force majeure on copper. We think that will catch up. The only one that may not catch up is the ag [ph] volume and that's going to depend on the revenues.

Robert Kwan

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open

Okay. But is that catch up to run rate and exceeded to make up for Q1? Is that where you should...

Steven Kean

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open

In the budget.

Kimberly Dang

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open

Right.

Robert Kwan

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open

Okay. That’s great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Brian Zarahn with Mizuho. Your line is open.

Richard Kinder

Analyst · Mizuho. Your line is open

Good afternoon, Brian.

Brian Zarahn

Analyst · Mizuho. Your line is open

Hi, Rich. I guess circling back on your 2018 outlook to kind of beat - to meet or beat your guidance of $2.05 per share in DCF. Just to review your expectation as the gas and CO2 segments to outperform tax they should be lower which more than offset higher interest expense. Is that the right way to summarize your outlook?

Kimberly Dang

Analyst · Mizuho. Your line is open

Yes, if we beat them, yes, those items would more than offset the interest expense.

Brian Zarahn

Analyst · Mizuho. Your line is open

Okay. And then your guidance on a per-share basis, how much of the potential upside is from the buyback?

Kimberly Dang

Analyst · Mizuho. Your line is open

We have the buyback factored into the budget.

Brian Zarahn

Analyst · Mizuho. Your line is open

Okay. And then on interest expense, just remind us on a floating rate exposure and updates on the impact with LIBOR being above your budget?

Kimberly Dang

Analyst · Mizuho. Your line is open

Right. So our - the forecast that I just gave you, our guidance for the year, meet or beat our EBITDA and DCF, factors in the LIBOR curve as of the end of last week. So that is a - that's got a current LIBOR curve in there. Our exposure with respect to floating rates is about 30% of our debt is floating, and so it's about $100 million of exposure for a full year impact of 100 basis points. So we would have to have the 100 basis point increase starting January 1 increasing and going throughout the full year to get to the $100 million.

Brian Zarahn

Analyst · Mizuho. Your line is open

And then shifting back to Trans Mountain, understanding that you're in negotiations on the expansion. On the scenario hopefully likely that the existing pipeline volumes are curtailed by a government, how should we think about the impacts of that potential outcome and any mitigants that KML has?

Steven Kean

Analyst · Mizuho. Your line is open

Are you talking about the proposed Alberta legislation?

Brian Zarahn

Analyst · Mizuho. Your line is open

Correct.

Steven Kean

Analyst · Mizuho. Your line is open

Yes. Look, there's a lot of back and forth going on and it's in a political realm, and it's not something that I feel particularly qualified to gauge for you. I think that what Alberta is saying, and I'm not even going to try to interpret it. I think there's going to be some back and forth here and this is part of why we're seeking clarity, okay?

Brian Zarahn

Analyst · Mizuho. Your line is open

Appreciate that. And then my last question is going back to the FERC, shifting to the liquids pipeline side. It's not for about 3 years from now, but looking at the new escalator taking that fact in July of 2021, any initial thoughts on the potential exposure to a lower indexation?

Steven Kean

Analyst · Mizuho. Your line is open

All that we've seen is probably what you've seen, Brian, which is to that the commission deferred action on the tax issues or pipelines that are under indexed rates to that later date when they're going to be evaluating index overall. And that's really all we know at this point as well.

Brian Zarahn

Analyst · Mizuho. Your line is open

Thanks, Steve.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Ted Durbin with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

Richard Kinder

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Your line is open

Good afternoon, Ted.

Ted Durbin

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Your line is open

Hey. How is it going? Just one question from me. If we sort of look at the FERC again and assume that the process that they laid out sticks with this 501G form, I guess can you help us out, and realizing you in the process of fighting on your Forms 2 working through them, but if you just take the headline number on some of your larger pipelines or you don't have a more [indiscernible] EPNG, what sort of ROE are you going to be showing when you file your 2017 numbers?

Steven Kean

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Your line is open

Look, we do have moratorium in Tennessee. EPNG subject to a rate case that's been going on for quite some time. It was fundamental underlying rate issues that still have not been resolved, which, again, I think points to, Ted, the point that we're making which is there's an awful lot of sort through before you can see the final and full impact implemented from what FERC is doing, looking at the tax flow through, but also taking the rest of the cost of service into account. So it makes it hard to do quickly, I think that's the main point. And there'll be a lot of moving parts on those discussions and a lot of arguments brought to bear on it. We don't have a number to quote you in terms of what returns you're going to show on for Form 2s, but we're working on the Form 2 filings and we'll make them in a timely fashion.

Ted Durbin

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Your line is open

Okay. That’s it from me. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Rebecca Followill with U.S. Capital Advisors. Your line is open.

Richard Kinder

Analyst · U.S. Capital Advisors. Your line is open

Good afternoon, Rebecca.

Rebecca Followill

Analyst · U.S. Capital Advisors. Your line is open

Good afternoon. Back on 501Gs. We've taken a look out and agreed that they're not really indicative of reality given that they don't take into account negotiated rates. Any thoughts on commenting on the [indiscernible] and trying to get some changes on that form or do you think that's set in stone?

Steven Kean

Analyst · U.S. Capital Advisors. Your line is open

I haven't seen - we're still - what filing is due on the 25th right. I haven't seen our comments, but we'll be covering a lot of ground in there, I think, I can assure you. But the main thing that we'll be making the point that you just made back over, if they don't make these forms conform to reality, they're going to be a limited usefulness. And even then, I mean, it's hard to know how you can apply things like a one size fits all ROE on a - from a 2010 litigated rate case and just apply that to everybody. That's not the way things work when you're setting a cost of equity for a system. So I think the 501Gs are going to create more thought [ph] than like.

Rebecca Followill

Analyst · U.S. Capital Advisors. Your line is open

We'd agree. And then second, you may have already have commented, but on Gulf Coast Express, any comments on potentially twinning that system? And if you were to twin, the timing to - if you were to double it, could you accelerate that and do some of that along as you construct the first phase?

Steven Kean

Analyst · U.S. Capital Advisors. Your line is open

I don't think you'd look for much of synergy and construction there. Those are limited even when you set out to do it that way. It can be - there's some savings, but it's not as much as you would think. The other real consideration there is this gas may want to hit a different part of the Texas Coast, and so that would take it out of that corridor.

Rebecca Followill

Analyst · U.S. Capital Advisors. Your line is open

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

We are showing no further questions at this time.

Richard Kinder

Analyst · JPMorgan. Your line is open

Okay. Well, thank you very much for joining us this afternoon. Have a good evening.